The document discusses how emerging technologies will disrupt philanthropy over the next 25 years. It outlines several disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain, and the internet of things that will change the way organizations operate and create new social problems to address. It also discusses challenges like algorithmic bias, filter bubbles dividing public discourse, challenges to civil society from closing civic spaces, and implications of trends like automation threatening jobs, urbanization shifting power to cities, and an aging population. The document advocates for grantmakers and charities to start preparing for these changes by exploring new opportunities to achieve their missions, understanding the impacts on their organizations, and helping shape debates around future challenges.

1. 1
The Landscape for
Grantmaking in 2043
Rhodri Davies
Head of Policy & Programme Director, Giving Thought

2. Looking back 25 years…
1993 Bank of England
base rate: 5.875%

3. Still to come…

4. Why should grantmakers care about
disruptive technology?
G
O
O
D
B
A
D
NEUTRAL
New ways of achieving mission1)
Change the way organisations operate2)
Create new problems to address3)

5. Example Disruptive Technologies
5
Artificial Intelligence
(AI)
Blockchain
Cryptocurrency
Big/Open Data
3D Printing
Virtual & Augmented
Reality (VAR)
Internet of Things
(IoT)
Autonomous Vehicles
& Drones
CRISPR/Biotech
Wearable tech
Robotics
Human
AugmentationQuantum
Computing

6. Data: Big, Open & Everywhere
6
“The world’s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data”
The Economist (2017)
 AI requires vast quantities of data
 Growing pressure on data ownership in future
 Charities and grantmakers will need to
embrace Open Data, and get away from
“private by default” mindset
 Potential benefit: 3rd party innovation

7. Radical Transparency
 Could make it possible to have 100%
transparency around finance, impact etc.
 Blockchain: a distributed public ledger
i.e. way of recording transactions &
ownership without trusted 3rd party.
GOOD: - More openness could bring greater trust, and thus more giving?
BAD: - Could make spending on core costs even harder
- What about justifiable donor/beneficiary anonymity?
NB: Not necessarily a choice: even if you don’t embrace it, it’ll probably happen to you so
you need to prepare and adapt.

8. Disintermediation
(i.e. getting rid of middlemen)
Long-term trend in philanthropy: towards
more intermediation
BUT: Are we now seeing that come full
circle?
E.g.
Blockchain could enable even greater
disintermediation
Benefit: Charities/Grantmakers could save money on e.g. bank costs, legal fees
Risk: Could charitable orgs themselves be disintermediated?

9. Decentralisation, Networks & Platforms
Tech enables decentralisation
• Blockchain can be used to create
entirely decentralised governance
structures (DAOs)
• Platforms (Uber, Airbnb etc.) have
disrupted and disintermediated
many industries
Society wants it

10. New models for social purpose
Social change campaign platforms
In the future, charities will face
competition for doing good from
many angles
Non-
traditional
structures for
philanthropy
Decentralised
networks
Purpose-
driven
commercial
models

11. Digital Assets
 Already over 1500 cryptocurrencies, e.g:
 Can use crypto tokens to represent value of all kinds: financial, non-financial,
physical, intangible (e.g. IP or social value).
PLUS: unique digital objects for the first time:
CryptoKitties
E.g….
Sounds
stupid,
but…
SO: Range of assets for
philanthropy could be massively
increased.

12. AI & Algorithms
AI is big news - number of key factors in recent growth:
1)More powerful
algorithms
(Deep Learning)
2)Data explosion
3) Greater
processing
power (GPUs)
4)Investment
NB: Narrow/Domain
Specific AI, not Artificial
General Intelligence
(AGI)
Opinions vary on when latter might happen, or if it is even possible, but former is here now.
Yes No

13. AI for Good

14. Chatbots & Conversational AI
• Chatbots will power 85% of all customer service
interactions by the year 2020
• By 2020, the average person will have more
conversations with bots than with their spouse. 30% of
web browsing will be done by voice. (Gartner)
• Already having an impact on charities…

15. AI Philanthropy
“If you liked Cancer
Research UK, you’ll
love RNLI!”
Facebook/Amazon model: charity
recommendations based on past
preferences or peer group
behaviour
A.
Philgorithm: Wholly automated
process of matching needs and
interventions
B.

16. Challenge 1: Algorithmic Bias
When machine learning algorithms are taught using data sets that contain statistical biases
for e.g. race, gender, they exhibit and strengthen those biases over time

17. Challenge 2: Filter Bubbles
• Technology such as social media
allows us to build ‘filter bubbles’
around our experience
• Likely to get worse as increasing
reliance on AI-based interfaces
tailors our experience of the world
to fit existing preferences and
biases.

18. The slow death of public discourse?
 Filter bubble problem symptomatic of wider social and political division
 Rise of ‘fake news’ and targeted
propaganda/misinformation has eroded
notions of truth and fact
 Things might be about to get worse…
For
charities:
• Challenges in terms of using facts and evidence for advocacy
• Role to play in combatting erosion of truth (e.g. philanthropic
support for journalism).

19. Closing Space or Open Season?
Closing Space for Civil
Society:
Global trend of
governments restricting
freedom of civil society,
particularly around
advocacy and campaigning.
Politicisation of charity:
In US, concerns over moves to
relax rules on political
campaigning by 501(c)3s -
many worry it will lead to flood
of “dark money” and
undermine trust in charities
We need to be aware of both these dangers in the UK:
1) Government attitude toward charity campaigning already quite negative (Lobbying
Act, Advocacy Clause etc.
2) Already concerns about think tanks etc. being used for quasi-political donations.

20. The Attention Economy
“The only factor becoming scarce in a world of abundance is human attention.”
-Kevin Kelly
 Need to compete in this “attention economy” has led
to new problems:
How do charities compete for our attention without adopting techniques that
cause long-term harm?

21. The Sharing Economy
Rise of platforms +
Internet of Things +
Blockchain
 Major shift from ownership to
access
 Big implications for
- Consumption
- Inequality
- Charitable giving
Turbo-charged
Sharing
Economy?
=

22. The Real Economy
Many experts believe another financial crisis is inevitable:
Possible causes*:
But there are other long-term challenges too…* According to Deutsche Bank
Or…?
Brexit
Japan
China
Italy
Overpriced
assets
End of QE
Rise of
Populism

23. Automation & The Future of Work
 Advances in AI and robotics have led to
speculation that many jobs may be under
threat from automation.
 One solution proposed is Universal Basic Income
 If feasible, has big implications for charities:
1) Role in managing transition to post-work world
2) Voluntary action as a new sense of purpose
3) Would charitable giving decline in the context of UBI?

24. Inequality
Inequality already a massive economic problem
Key question for development of tech: does it reduce or increase
inequality?

25. An Ageing Population
 Average life expectancies continue to rise
 Life extension technology could
enable those who can afford it to live
even longer.
Our relationship with mortality could change radically over next 25 years
Hence:
Impact for charities:
• New health & social problems
• Delayed wealth transfer?
• More volunteers…?

26. Urbanisation & The Rise of Cities
 More people now live in urban than rural areas worldwide (54%)
 UK has highest proportion of urban population in the OECD (82%)
Global urban population 1960-2016 (World Bank)
 Already seeing political power shift in UK
through devolution, elected mayors etc.
 New opportunities for place-based
philanthropy and influencing at a local level.
(McKinsey)
“In this century, it will be the city—not the state—
that becomes the nexus of economic and political
power.”

27. Key Cross-Cutting Themes Recap
27
Disintermediation Networks & Platforms
Filtered experience
Radical Transparency
Digital Assets
Algorithms Data, data, data
Urbanisation
Inequality
New models for social good
Attention Economy
Automation of work
Ageing Population

28. What should I take away from this?
28
Going to see massive technological, social and political
changes in coming years
Impossible to guess exactly what these are, but can identify
trends that are likely to play out
Charities and funders need to start engaging with them now, to:
1) Find new
opportunities
to deliver
mission
2) Understand
impact on
organisation
3) Shape
debate on
future needs
& challenges
“We probably need something in our strategy about this…”

29. Where to find us
29
CAF Giving Thought think tank and Future:Good project
CAF Giving Thought Podcast
@Rhodri_H_Davies

30. Rhodri Davies
Head of Policy & Programme Director, Giving Thought
Charities Aid Foundation
rdavies@cafonline.org