The global economy is expected to improve in 2014 with growth forecast at 3.6% after slowing to 2.9% in 2013. Business confidence and outlooks have strengthened significantly over the past year across major developed economies. However, emerging markets face challenges including currency depreciation and slowing growth. While recoveries are taking hold in many countries, unemployment remains high in parts of Europe and skills shortages constrain growth in some Asia-Pacific nations. Overall, economic uncertainty remains the top concern for businesses as the global recovery progresses unevenly.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 15 February 2016 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• MENA Region: Non-oil sector revenues to drive 3.8% GDP growth in 2016
• Oman: BP expands scope of $16b Khazzan gas project
• KSA: Expert explains importance of ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ concept
• Turkey: OMV initiates process to sell OMV Petrol Ofisi
• Egypt:Renewable energy developers edged out in’s Kom Ombo solar project
• UK: A rebranded wind farm subsidy is still a subsidy
• Oil edges down, pares Friday's jump of over 10 percent
• Crude oil rally based on 'false hope': Analyst
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for
Latin America in 2014.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 15 February 2016 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• MENA Region: Non-oil sector revenues to drive 3.8% GDP growth in 2016
• Oman: BP expands scope of $16b Khazzan gas project
• KSA: Expert explains importance of ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ concept
• Turkey: OMV initiates process to sell OMV Petrol Ofisi
• Egypt:Renewable energy developers edged out in’s Kom Ombo solar project
• UK: A rebranded wind farm subsidy is still a subsidy
• Oil edges down, pares Friday's jump of over 10 percent
• Crude oil rally based on 'false hope': Analyst
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for
Latin America in 2014.
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
The Feb2016 issue of Economy Matters focuses on Union Budget 2016-17. The Global Trends section analyses the prospects of the BRICS economies and oil movement. In the Domestic Trends section, get insights to the Indian GDP, IIP, Inflation, Trade, Economic Survey and Railway Budget.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
Singapore and Malaysia are two of the most important economies in South East Asia. Measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Malaysia is the 36th largest economy in the world, whilst Singapore is the 39th largest. But what is the current outlook for the economies and their banking sectors?
South Africa’s growth outlook has improved, but this is largely due to short-term cyclical factors. structural reforms are needed to push the growth rate sustainably higher.
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
The Feb2016 issue of Economy Matters focuses on Union Budget 2016-17. The Global Trends section analyses the prospects of the BRICS economies and oil movement. In the Domestic Trends section, get insights to the Indian GDP, IIP, Inflation, Trade, Economic Survey and Railway Budget.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
Singapore and Malaysia are two of the most important economies in South East Asia. Measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Malaysia is the 36th largest economy in the world, whilst Singapore is the 39th largest. But what is the current outlook for the economies and their banking sectors?
South Africa’s growth outlook has improved, but this is largely due to short-term cyclical factors. structural reforms are needed to push the growth rate sustainably higher.
In this presentation, we will discuss about International Business Environment while focusing on the factors to globalize a business. Types of international business, growing importance to globalize, motivators to become an international company for a domestic firm will also be discussed here. Various favorable business environment and strategic decisions that influence and affect international business will be discussed along with.
To know more about Welingkar School’s Distance Learning Program and courses offered, visit: http://www.welingkaronline.org/distance-learning/online-mba.html
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
This monthly briefing highlights that global employment remains a challenge; the United States Federal Reserve faces challenges in adjusting its monetary policy and that financial markets in emerging economies attempted to stabilize.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
This monthly briefing highlights that the world economy is expected to improve in 2014; that unemployment rates remain a major challenge; and downside risks to the baseline scenario persist.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The Global Talent Market Quarterly provides a summary of the current economic and labor market conditions around the world and gives insight into how they might impact you.
European leaders could be forgiven for feeling they are being besieged from all angles.
From the East, tensions with Russia over Ukraine have echoes of the Cold War, dampening business growth hopes in neighbouring economies and highlighting reliance on Russian natural resources.
Domestic demand in some of the key rapid-growth markets (RGMs) has faltered recently and - whilst most rapid growth market economies continue to prosper - their growth trajectory seems more varied. Increasingly investors are reassessing risks.
We currently project RGMs to grow by 4.6% on average in 2013 and more close to 6% in subsequent years.
Microclimates of opportunity - Real estate & construction report 2014Misbah Hussain
This report draws on more than 700 interviews with business leaders in 45 economies to understand how the real estate & construction sector is recovering from the financial crisis, where the opportunities lie and what businesses are doing to keep their operations running
smoothly and free from fraud.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
The Global Talent Market Quarterly provides a summary of the current economic and labor market conditions around the world and gives insight into how they might impact you.
ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 4.9% in 2015, reaching US$545 billion by the end of the year.
Our forecast for 2015 is down (by 0.4 percentage points) on our last forecast in September, with small downward revisions across many regions of the world. This indicates a minor but widespread decline in advertiser confidence, related to conflict in Ukraine and weak economic growth at the heart of the Eurozone.
Is the tide rising?
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
Download full text
Companies are increasingly focused on high-quality strategic transactions, with less time spent on investigating peripheral opportunities, according to our annual tracker of business leader M&A intentions.
With momentum building towards the UN Climate Change Conference in Peru, new figures from IBR reveal that businesses leaders in emerging markets are more focused on the sustainability of their operations compared with peers in developed markets. In this short report Nathan Goode, global leader for energy & cleantech, calls for a change in the narrative around sustainability arguing that we need to start talking in language that resonates with businesses.
Investor calls for transparency and the rise of social media have thrust the impact businesses have on the economy, the environment and society more firmly into the spotlight. Drawing on more than 2,500 interviews with business leaders in 34 economies, Corporate Social Responsibility: beyond financials, looks at how companies are responding to this challenge; how they are making their operations more sustainable and what role they feel integrated reporting can play.
Tax management within multinational enterprises (MNEs) has never been more challenging. 'Getting to grips with the BEPS Action Plan' is the latest Grant Thornton report exploring the OECD’s planned overhaul of the international tax system, what it means for businesses and how they can prepare.
Many charities consider social media a key channel to deliver their communications and fundraising goals, although few incorporate it into their core strategy – a problem exacerbated by the social media knowledge gap at senior levels in charities worldwide.
Drawing on interviews with international charity leaders and Grant Thornton Not for Profit specialists, this report provides charity leaders with guidance on how they can enable their charity to take advantage of social media’s power to engage new communities and to thrive online.
Key findings
• Strategy: Organisational strategy should drive social media use, the board must help formulate this from a position of knowledge.
• Governance: The social media governance approach and guidelines should be shared with everyone in the organisation.
• Education and training: Formal education should be used at every level. Internal social networks can help people gain knowledge of social media.
• Risk: Social media non-engagement is a risk in itself, although costs must be weighed against benefits.
• Impact: It is vital to measure social media outcomes to justify investment; metrics should be linked to a strategic goal and monitored.
Read more here: bit.ly/1otFEJR
New research from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) has found that Brazilian business enthusiasm for hosting the tournament has plummeted over the past two years. However, while few business leaders predict increased investment or increased profits as a result of Brazil hosting the competition, there is hope that infrastructure improvements and a greater influx of tourists will prove enduring legacies. For more information please visit http://bit.ly/1kZr9tB
This outsourcing report looks at the trends driving, and barriers to, outsourcing adoption in 45 economies across the globe.
Why and what functions are businesses outsourcing? What is preventing businesses from outsourcing? And how can these obstacles be overcome?
Companies are facing a proliferation of transfer pricing documentation demands. While the new requirements set out in the OECD’s Base Erosion Profit Shifting (BEPS) Action Plan will raise the bar still further, they could also provide the catalyst for the development of a more sustainable approach. http://bit.ly/1htg32Z
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a rapidly developing economy with an approximate population of 8 million. Its GDP was estimated at US$390bn in 2013, making it the 29th largest economy in the world and the second largest in the Middle East. Its GDP per capita is approximately US$43,000, the 19th highest globally.
This expatriate tax guide has been designed to provide an overview of the different tax systems around the globe and gives further information about tax systems and regulations in specific countries, http://bit.ly/1hkrB4r.
Organisations that send their greatest assets – their people – overseas to work can face certain tax burdens. Working overseas offers an opportunity for business and personal growth. However, employers have to make sure that remuneration is competitive and that tax, social security and pension issues associated with relocation are addressed.
Working with both companies and individuals and using our global network of specialists, we can advise on the pitfalls associated with working abroad and make sure that appropriate pre-assignment planning opportunities are implemented effectively to minimise the tax burden for both parties. Our tax specialists across the network work together on complex multi-jurisdictional issues to help employers to adopt a consistent and transparent approach to their expatriate assignments. This ensures that their employees are treated fairly and are clear about the terms of their relocation package.
24%: that is the proportion of women holding the most senior roles in businesses across the globe. We have been tracking this figure over the past decade and are sorry to report there has been no significant movement. In fact, this figure is exactly the same as 2007, 2009 and 2013, suggesting that women’s ascent up the corporate ladder has returned to its ‘natural level’ following the financial crisis, during which women were disproportionately hit.
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In the Adani-Hindenburg case, what is SEBI investigating.pptxAdani case
Adani SEBI investigation revealed that the latter had sought information from five foreign jurisdictions concerning the holdings of the firm’s foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in relation to the alleged violations of the MPS Regulations. Nevertheless, the economic interest of the twelve FPIs based in tax haven jurisdictions still needs to be determined. The Adani Group firms classed these FPIs as public shareholders. According to Hindenburg, FPIs were used to get around regulatory standards.
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
Recruiting in the Digital Age: A Social Media MasterclassLuanWise
In this masterclass, presented at the Global HR Summit on 5th June 2024, Luan Wise explored the essential features of social media platforms that support talent acquisition, including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok.
2. The global economy in 2014
2014 in numbers
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton
International Business Report (IBR), the Economist Intelligence
Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short
report considers the outlook for the global economy in 2014.
Net business optimism
28% 22%
€€
number of economies
21%
in the eurozone
38% Global GDP share
of Trans Pacific
BRIC
€
18
G7
following accession
of Latvia
India and Indonesia's
Partnership economies
share of global population
Both have elections in 2014
600,000
Forecast GDP growth rates
for FIFA World Cup
Global
expected vistors to Brazil
3.6%
5.1%
Developing
Developed
2%
3. The global economy in 2014
Foreword
The global economy looks much healthier as we begin 2014
compared with 12 months ago. Then, fears over the ‘fiscal cliff’
in the United States, the recession in Europe and the
rebalancing of China’s economy were dampening growth
prospects across the world, and globally, business confidence
was at its lowest since the financial crisis.
Growth prospects looking a lot brighter
Germany
US
UK
Japan
Though some are less bright
Russia
Brazil
Italy
France
Today, global growth prospects look
a lot brighter with most large developed
economies, especially Japan, the United
Kingdom and the United States expected
to grow strongly in 2014. The optimism
of business leaders in these economies has
increased dramatically over the past year
and the hope is that rising confidence will
encourage them to invest more in their
operations and their people to achieve
long-term, sustainable growth.
However, the situation in many
emerging markets is something of a
mirror image. Since the United States
Federal Reserve announced plans to begin
tapering its huge quantitative easing
programme, many economies have seen
their currencies slide and growth suffer.
Business confidence in China, Brazil,
India and South Africa all fell to record
lows in 2013, and in Russia and Turkey
to record lows since the financial crisis
began. Confidence has rebounded,
especially in China and India, but with
many of these economies suffering from
slowing growth, sliding currencies and
social unrest, 2014 could be a period of
significant adjustment.
The eurozone crisis also remains
delicately poised. Following a contraction
of 0.4% in 2013, the currency bloc is
expected to return to growth in 2014, but
while Germany is expected to expand
robustly, the next two largest economies
in the currency bloc, France and Italy,
look set to struggle and their business
communities are amongst the least
optimistic in the world.
At the macro-level, we are seeing a
convergence in growth prospects. In the
years following the financial crisis,
emerging economies drove growth in
global output but this dynamic has shifted
in recent months. The Economist
Intelligence Unit expects that growth in
non-OECD economies will outstrip that
of those in the OECD in 2014, but that
the gap will be the smallest since 2008.
This is an important development: a more
stable, balanced global economy is good
for business growth prospects.
There will be much change over the
next year, but I am looking forward to it
with optimism.
Ed Nusbaum
Global CEO
Grant Thornton
The global economy in 2014 3
4. The global economy in 2014
Economic outlook
The global economy grew by approximately 2.9% in 2013, its slowest rate since 2009.
However, prospects for 2014 look brighter with robust growth forecast in large developed
economies such as Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Because of
their scale, a recovery in these economies is likely to boost global growth to 3.6% in 2014,
accelerating to 4.0% in 2015. Having contracted marginally in 2013, the eurozone is
expected to return to growth, although the outlook remains tricky with
debt levels continuing to rise, especially in troubled southern Europe.
Growth in developing economies as a
whole slowed in 2013, but they are still
expected to expand faster than developed
economy peers in 2014. The economies of
developing Asia, led by China, India and
Indonesia, are expected to grow by 6.5%
in 2014. Strong growth is also forecast in
Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East,
and North Africa is expected to rebound
after a tough 2013 complicated by the
fallout from the Arab Spring. Central and
Eastern European economies have
suffered as major regional export markets
have dried up but growth prospects are
improving despite a lack of necessary
reforms in Russia. Growth in Latin
America continues to disappoint with
Argentina and Brazil, despite gearing up
to host the FIFA World Cup in June,
seemingly stuck in a rut, although recent
bold reforms in Mexico bode well for
future growth.
This healthier outlook for the global
economy is complicated not only by the
fragility of the eurozone, but also by the
reduction of the US Federal Reserve’s
massive quantitative easing programme.
Talk of tapering sent many emerging
markets into a negative spiral in the
middle of 2013 and while the reaction
to the real thing has been less dramatic
so far, the currencies of Brazil, India,
Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey – the
so-called ‘fragile five’ – are all thought to
Global economy
expanded by
2.9%
in 2013
be at risk and central banks have
started to raise interest rates sharply.
In developed markets, a slowdown
in the pace of bond-buying could
precipitate a rise in interest rates
from record lows, dampening
business investment and consumer
spending power, potentially choking
off the recovery.
ForecastGDP growth rates % %
Forecast GDP growth rates
Forecast GDP growth rates %
Central and Eastern Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Latin America and the Caribbean
3.3
3.1
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa
3.5
World
World
5.7
6.6
6.0
Developing Asia
Developing Asia
Advanced economies
Advanced economies
4.2
5.1
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Non-euro/G7 advanced economies
Non-euro/G7 advanced economies
4.2
3.8
Emerging markets and developing economies
Emerging markets and developing economies
Euro area
Euro area
4 The global economy in 2014
2.7
6.5
1.0
1.4
2.0
2.5
3.1
3.3
3.6
4.0
5. The global economy in 2014
Business growth prospects
Global business optimism remained fairly consistent in 2013, averaging net 28%
across the year. However the contrast with the previous year is striking: 2012 average
optimism stood at 12% and just 4% of business leaders expressed optimism in the
economic outlook for 2013, compared to 27% for 2014. Interestingly, while G7
business leaders grew more confident as 2013 progressed (up 44 percentage points),
optimism in the BRIC economies has slowly been eroded (down 17 pp). Globally,
the most optimistic regions are Southeast Asia (45%) and the Nordics (39%).
Rising business confidence in the economic
outlook has fuelled a resurgence in growth
prospects with businesses globally more
willing to take on risks and expand their
operations. Revenue growth expectations
for the year ahead climbed from net 45%
last year to 52% as we head into 2014.
Similarly, 40% of business leaders expect
profits to climb in 2014, compared with
35% in 2013. Again, the rebalancing of the
global economy is in evidence: BRIC
businesses are more confident about rising
profits (47%) but this is down 28pp from
this time last year, while G7 business
leaders’ expectations have risen 16pp to
36%. Globally, Eastern Europe and North
America (both 52%) are the most bullish
about increasing profitability in 2014.
Business leaders are also planning to
step up their investment activity in 2014:
net 36% expect to increase spending on
plant and machinery over the next 12
months, compared with 31% this time last
year. A slide in BRIC investment activity
(down 4pp) driven by China is outweighed
by a rise in expected activity across the G7
(up 7pp) boosted by gains in Germany, the
UK and the US. Despite slowing economic
growth, 42% of business leaders in Latin
America expect to raise investment in plant
and machinery in 2014, unchanged from
3.3
the start of 2013.
However, there are fewer signs this
uptick in confidence will feed through into
higher employee salaries. Globally, 67%
of businesses expect to offer pay rises in
Plant and machinery
investment expectations
climb to
36%
in 2014
2014, unchanged from this time last year,
with 14% expecting to pay above the rate
of inflation, a marginal increase from 13%
recorded 12 months previously. People in
North America (18%) are most likely to
Net percentage expecting to increase profits (next 12 months)
get an inflation-busting rise.
Asia
Eastern
Pacific
BRIC
Nordic
45
47
47
(excl. Japan)
G7
North
52
52
Latin Europe America
America
Global
Eurozone
Southern
Europe
5
21
36
40
48
Net percentage of businesses expecting to increase profits (next 12 months)
The global economy in 2014 5
6. The global economy in 2014
Employment prospects
Improvements in labour markets tend to lag recoveries as businesses work off
excess capacity and wait for uncertainty to subside before hiring new people.
Consequently, employment indicators across the world remain fairly subdued:
just net 22% of businesses hired workers in 2013, down from 24% in 2012 and
well below pre-crisis levels (44% in 2007).
Businesses are slightly more optimistic as
regards hiring in 2014; net 29% expect to
hire people, up from 22% this time last
year. G7 businesses are much more
confident: 28% plan to increase staff
numbers, compared with 19% 12 months
ago. Businesses are most likely to expand
their workforces in Southeast Asia (37%),
North America and Latin America (both
36%) in 2014 compared to just 11% of
peers in the eurozone.
Unemployment rates in many developed
economies soared as a result of the
financial crisis but have largely improved
since. Interestingly, the central banks of
two of these economies, the UK and the
US, have expressly linked raising interest
rates (from close to zero today) to absolute
improvements in the unemployment rate.
Low interest rates have allowed businesses
and consumers to borrow cheaply,
and subsequent improvements in the
housing markets of these two economies
have boosted the wealth effect and
consequently consumer demand. The
hope is that any dampening of demand
caused by higher interest rates will be
offset by higher employment.
By contrast, the jobless rate in the
eurozone remains stuck above 12%. The
German labour market remains robust but
unemployment rates in Greece and Spain
are above 25% and well into double
figures in both France and Italy.
22%
of businesses
hired workers
Many developing economies face a very
different problem: that of a lack of skilled
workers. This is a particular problem in
much of Asia. In India, 50% of businesses
cite a lack of talent as a constraint on their
growth plans, rising to 56% in Vietnam
and 60% in Thailand. Indonesia (42%)
and China (32%) also face significant
challenges in getting the right people
to help grow their operations.
in 2013
2% 11% 28% 29% 31% 31% 32% 36% 36%
Southern
Europe
Eurozone
G7
Global
BRIC
Asia
Pacific
(excl. Japan)
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
North
America
37%
Southeast
Asia
Net percentage of businesses expecting to hire workers (next 12 months)
6 The global economy in 2014
7. The global economy in 2014
Business growth constraints
With the global economy still in recovery, business leaders rank economic
uncertainty (42%) as the principal constraint on their expansion plans in 2014.
The trade-off between risk and reward is intrinsic to any analysis of business
growth prospects; a certain level of uncertainty is to be expected. But this is
a major issue for businesses across the globe: more than two in five business
leaders in both the G7 and BRIC economies feel their growth plans constrained
by uncertainty; in other words, they are not confident enough in the potential
rewards to risk investment in the year ahead.
Bureaucracy is the second most pressing
constraint globally (34%) although it has
eased off compared with this time last
year in both G7 and BRIC economies.
Businesses in southern Europe are most
concerned (49%) while peers in the
Nordics are least concerned (17%).
Demand conditions have improved
markedly in recent years as consumer
spending and world trade recover. In
2009, 49% of business leaders cited a
shortage of orders as a constraint on
growth but this dropped to 33% in 2013,
close to pre-crisis levels. 32% of business
leaders expect demand constraints to
hinder growth prospects in 2014, down
from 38% this time last year with
conditions improving notably in North
America (down 14pp to 17%) but
remaining elevated in Asia-Pacific (49%).
A lack of skilled workers has climbed in
the last four years, a further indication
that the recovery is taking hold, to average
30% in 2013. It is a much greater concern
in BRIC economies (39%) where skills
and unemployment are generally lower
compared with the G7 economies (26%).
Businesses in Southeast Asia (46%) are
struggling most to fill talent gaps with
peers in southern Europe (15%) at the
other end of the spectrum.
Both exchange rate fluctuations (37%)
and a shortage of finance (32%) are much
greater problems for businesses in the
BRIC economies compared with peers in
the G7. These results highlight the issues
businesses in these developing economies
could face as the US Federal Reserve steps
up the tapering of asset purchases.
Percentage of businesses citing factors
as a constraint on growth
€€
44
41
Economic uncertainty
42
¥¥
37
€ €
XR fluctuations
32
35
Regulations & red tape
29
Shortage of orders
39
26
Lack of skilled workers
BRIC
17
Shortage of finance
27
41
16 ¥
¥
12
ICT infrastructure
25
9
Transport infrastructure
G7
The global economy in 2014 7