This lecture looks at shipping today, macro-trends in technology, autonomous vessels and the changes this will bring to future logistics channels and ports.
OpenShift Commons Paris - Choose Your Own Observability Adventure
Shipping 3.0 - The Future of Shipping
1. Shipping 3.0
IMarEST Lord Kelvin Prestige Lecture
Roger Adamson, Chief Executive, Futurenautics
11th December 2014
3. Shipping today is dysfunctional
o Oversupply / speculation in tonnage
o Poor safety record – 10 times OECD best practice
o Regulation /compliance – moving at the pace of the slowest
• Environmental – Ballast water, MARPOL, SEEMP, ECA
• HR – STCW Manila 2010, MLC 2006
• ECDIS – E-navigation
o Commentators and industry alike are agreed that cyclical nature of shipping is a handicap,
but there seems to be a lack of focus on how to address this.
o Global Marine Trends report 2013 took no account of technology – too disruptive to model.
That’s not good enough. The assumptions are that things will remain static. But they won’t.
o Shipping 1.0 was sail. Shipping 2.0 was steam, radio and containerisation. Shipping
3.0 is digital.
4. Macro Trends
• Internet of things
• Cloud technologies
• Millennials/Gen Y
• Industry 4.0/Cyber physical systems
• Nearshoring / Nextshoring
• Collaborative Consumption
• Drones
• Nanotech
• Autonomy
• Circular Economy
• Robotics
• Artificial Intelligence/Predictive Algorithms
• 3-D Printing/Additive Manufacturing
• Crowdsourcing
• Gamification
5. Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous
o Many of us fail to appreciate the exponential trends at play
– Digitisation
– Automation / AI / machine learning
– Evolving business models
– Changing consumer & employee expectations
o Shipping 3.0 will see pressure on business models, margins,
value chains, stakeholders, customers and seafarers.
o Data is the new currency
9. Are we as safe as we think?
Neuroscience tells us our brains work
differently with digital information
Screen reading shifts to "non-linear reading", characterised
by skimming a screen or having your eyes dart around a
web page.
We are losing the bi-literate brain.
The brain wasn’t designed to multi-task
Too much stimulation/input and multi-tasking leads to IQ
declines similar to drugs and sleep deprivation. In studies
multi-tasking men lowered their IQ scores to the average
range of an 8 year old child
The effects may not be temporary. High multi-taskers show
less density in the anterior cingulate cortex, responsible for
cognitive function
“I feel that it is important to create an awareness that the way we are interacting with the devices might be
changing the way we think and these changes might be occurring at the level of brain structure”
Human-Machine interaction – autonomy dulls
situational awareness
10. We aren’t good at this
But machines are
That’s why the unmanned ship will happen
And it’s not just about seafarers
• Knowledge automation– 70% of white collar jobs in
the US at risk.
• From Fleet to Middle Management Shipping 3.0 will
impact everyone
• We have a responsibility to manage that
11. Business e-volution
The internet of all things, the cloud, big data, knowledge automation and customer and
consumer expectations will change shipping. Shipping leaders must be prepared as
-The cloud offers companies new creative ways to monetise physical assets as a service
- value creation of $1m / vessel ~ approx. $20bn for world fleet
-Transparency and data availability erodes established market norms and threatens
disintermediation as businesses seek closer integration with their customers
13. Business e-volution
The internet of all things, the cloud, big data, knowledge automation and customer and
consumer expectations will change shipping. Shipping leaders must be prepared as
-The cloud offers companies new creative ways to monetise physical assets as a service
- value creation of $1m / vessel ~ approx. $20bn for world fleet
-Transparency and data availability erodes established market norms and threatens
disintermediation as businesses seek closer integration with their customers
- 3D Printing leads to disintermediation of the logistics channel
15. Business e-volution
The internet of all things, the cloud, big data, knowledge automation and customer and
consumer expectations will change shipping. Shipping leaders must be prepared as
-The cloud offers companies new creative ways to monetise physical assets as a service
- value creation of $1m / vessel ~ approx. $20bn for world fleet
-Transparency and data availability erodes established market norms and threatens
disintermediation as businesses seek closer integration with their customers
- 3D Printing leads to disintermediation of the logistics channel
- Industry 4.0 – leads to ‘use cycle’ within an increasingly circular economy
- New multi-sided business models are required - exhaust data may hold promise
- Organisations require new skills – already a shortage of ‘Data Scientists’
- Old sources of competitive advantage will give way to new ones – diseconomies of scale
- Evidence based decision making
New, aggressive, techno-centric competitors will enter the market
16. Seatropolis
3D Print Fabs
On berth vessel
maintenance
Hyper Connected
data centre
Autonomous
vessels
G Roads
(Autonomous Trucks)
Collection of real
time marine data
Intelligent logistics
systems
Drone Port (Cargo)
Collection of real
time port data
17. And it’s already in use today...
And it’s already in use today...
18. Black Swans
o Drone Airships
– $6.5 billion / pa investment in
drone technology
– New materials – buckypaper
– Co-location with Seatropolis
– Infrastructure constrained regions
o Nuclear Fusion
– Ship efficiency
– Disruption in key maritime sectors
– Disruption to global trade patterns
– Targeting maritime
19. Shipping 3.0 will require all our ingenuity, nerve and resilience.
“There is no silver bullet, no-one knows
where the digital world is headed”
Heather Cox Citi Group
“Smooth seas do not make for a skilful
sailor.”
We’ve already had one light bulb moment – time for another
May you live in interesting times...
20. Welcome to the world
of the Futurenaut
E: roger.adamson@futurenautics.com
T: +44 (0)207 125 0090
W: www.futurenautics.com/current-issue/