The Forecast // Artificial Intelligence

The Forecast
Artiﬁcial Intelligence
By Usbek & Rica I October 2015
1

Contents
Methodology……………………………………………………………...…..3
Experts………………………………………………..…………………….…4

Part 1 / The context..…………………………………………………….…..5
1.  History……………………………………………………………….….…6
2.  Deﬁnition……………………………………………………………...….16
3.  Market dynamics……………………………………………………...…25
4.  Beneﬁts………………………………………………………………..…50
5.  Consumer perception ……………………………………………….….59

Part 2 / Real-life applications…………………………………………….…72
1.  Lifestyle……………………………………………………………..........75
2.  Consumption………………………………………………………...…113
Part 3 / The limits……………………………………………………….…141
2

The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015

Methodology
+ Online desk research & strategic watch (specialized
websites, blogs, social media, print and online magazines)

+ Qualitative insights (expert interviews & extracts of public
talks)

+ Quantitative insights (extracts of results from research
studies)

+ In-situ observations (travel trips, shop visits, art
exhibitions, ﬁlms, advertising, the street)

3


Interviewed experts
Laurent Ach

Manager of the French
branch of Rakuten
Institute of Technology
(RIT), the research and
innovation department
of Rakuten group

Heather Locker

Head of Trend
Forecasting company
Future Foundation,
America

Rand Hindi

CEO & Founder of
predictive analytics
startup Snips
Vincent Le Cerf

Doctor in computing
specialized in artiﬁcial
intelligence, and
founder of company
Metagenia
4


PART 1 /
CONTEXT
5


History
1.
6


Ancient times

Thinking machines and artiﬁcial beings
appeared in Greek myths:
•  Talos was a man of Bronze forged by
Hephaestus;
•  Daedalus used quicksilver to install voice
in his moving statues;
•  King Alkinous of the Phaiakians
employed gold and silver watchdogs;
•  Pygmalion animated his statue Galatea,
whom he felt in love with.

Animated cult images were also worshiped in
Egypt. Humanoid automatons were built by
Yan Shi, Hero of Alexandria and Al-Jazari.

Source: Wikipedia.com

7


The Turing test (1950s)

In early 1950s, British mathematician Alan
Turing proposed a test to determine if a
machine can be deﬁned as "conscious." To
this purpose, he developed the "imitation
game”, according to which a judge can
interact with a machine and a human using a
terminal without being able to differentiate
one from the other.


8


Formalization of the term (1956)

The term “artiﬁcial intelligence” was coined in
1956 by American computer scientist and
cognitive scientist John McCarthy at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.


9


Find out our complete analysis in the full report!
Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr
You want to know more about the history of AI?

Today’s
definition2.
11


The commonly accepted definition
Today, Artiﬁcial Intelligence is
more commonly known as
"machine learning”. This
consists in working on a
database that is used as an
example and then gets
generalized.

- Laurent Ach, Manager of the French branch of Rakuten Institute of
Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department of Rakuten
group (September 9, 2015)

“
”
12


A.I. is not to be confused with….
13


“Big Data”
Big Data is the collection of
personal information whereas
Artiﬁcial Intelligence is the use of
this information.

14


“Deep learning”
Deep learning is the modern
version of neural networks, those
that use the latest techniques.
These large networks involve
more sophisticated results.
15


You want to know more about today’s deﬁnition of AI?

Market
dynamics3.
17


3.1. Growth & forecast
3.2. Market players
18


3.1. Growth & forecast
19


Smart machines : a spectacular
evolution to come

The global market for smart machines will
grow to $15.3 billion by 2019, with an
average annual growth rate of 19.7%.

Source: BCC Research, May 2014

20


Robotics : the most promising category

The autonomous robots segment
(including self-driving vehicles for
space exploration), which was
valued at just $1.1 billion in 2013,
is set to jump to nearly $3.6 billion
in 2019 and $13.9 billion in 2024.

Source: BCC Research study, May 2014
21


Mobility is expected to be a key sector
Advanced driver assistance
systems will have a global
market volume of €16 billion in
2019 ($17 billion), compared
to €5 billion in 2012.

Source: Strategy Analytics, Octobr 2014

22


You want to know more about growth & forecast?

3.2. Market players
24


The future of A.I. is currently hold in
the hands of a few players
Facebook
Amazon
Apple
Google
25


A potential threat to watch closely
The GAFA are acquiring all the
business in the ﬁeld of A.I. As
they are only a few, we should
watch them closely. The solution?
Making them public - which
sounds complicated – or
improving their regulation.

- Vincent Le Cerf, Doctor in computing specialized in artiﬁcial
intelligence, and founder of company Metagenia (September 18,
2015)

“
”
26


Alongside the GAFA, other tech giants
have entered the market of AI
27


LATEST ACQUISITIONS:

+ Nest Labs, the maker of the Nest Learning
Thermostat and Protect smoke detector on January
2014 for $3.2 billion.
+ DeepMind, the artiﬁcial intelligence research
startup working on Artiﬁcial Intelligence, for a
reported $400 million. The company has added :
–  Dark Blue Labs that specializes in deep
learning for understanding natural language,
–  Vision Factory that specializes in visual
recognition systems and deep learning.

28


PROJECTS TO WATCH:

+ The company developed virtual personal
assistant Google Now in 2012 and
launched Google Now on Tap in June
2015.

+ A machine created in Feb 2015, can
ﬁgure out how to play and win video
games - over 49 Atari 2600 computer
games from the 1980s.

+ An advanced type of “chatbot” that
learns how to respond in conversations
based on examples from a training set of
dialogue. The bot can form new answers
from new questions. Future versions could
be used in more general decision-making
applications, such as driverless cars or
weather prediction.

29


LATEST INITIATIVES:

+ Metaio, an augmented reality ﬁrm, has been
acquired;

+ John Morrell, a Yale robotics expert, was
recruited in 2013;

+ Vocal IQ, a speech-related artiﬁcial intelligence
company, has been acquired in October 2015. It
enables users to talk more naturally with their
smart devices.

30

John Morrell

PROJECTS TO WATCH:

+ Proactive, an intelligent, context-based
software that will to learn the user’s habits and
predict their needs accordingly;

+ The Apple Car, which is currently called
“Project Titan”, and set to be released in 2020.
The car will feature spoken word instruction,
predictive analytics, automatic accident
prevention and car-to-car communication;

+ Improvements on Siri, such as making
users’ interactions with it more natural; running
searches of the photo roll based on dates and
locations; setting contextual reminders based
on what the user is doing on the phone; having
deep integration with Apple Music, etc.
31


The world’s leading figures

+ Yann LeCun, deep learning expert, Founding
Director of the NYU Center for Data Science
and Director of AI Research at Facebook;

+ Geoﬀ Hinton, world leader in deep learning
expert, professor at the University of Toronto
and Distinguished Researcher at Google;
+ Demis Hassabis, former chess champion
and founder of DeepMind Technologies,
acquired by Google;
+ Ralf Herbrich, European Union director of
machine learning at Amazon and managing
director of the Amazon Development Center in
Germany.
32

Yann LeCun
Geoff Hinton
Demis Hassabis
Ralf Herbrich

You want to know more about the market players?

Benefits
4.
34


4.1. Control
4.2. Performance
4.3. Convenience & comfort
4.4. Seamless
4.5. Personalization
35


Control
Consumers are increasingly
getting used to having control
over every aspect of their lives -
mostly through the use of their
smartphone, which has become
out life 'remote control'. AI will
only increase this need for or
increase consumer desire for
more control over their lives.

- Heather Cocker, Head of Future Foundation America

“
”36


Performance
More and more tasks are better
performed by machines. That's
why some experts say there is no
limit. Also, we’re going to
generalize and so turn to the
machines to ﬁnd out how to act.

- Laurent Ach, Manager of the French branch of Rakuten Institute
of Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department of
Rakuten group (September 9, 2015)

“
”
37


Seamless
In this era, called “Ubiquitous
Computing”, adding new
connected devices does not add
friction, it actually adds value! (...)
Technology will have become so
deeply integrated in our lives and
ourselves that we simply won’t
notice it anymore. Artiﬁcial
Intelligence will have made
technology disappear from our
consciousness, and the world will
feel unplugged again.

- Rand Hindi, CEO & Founder of predictive analytics startup Snips
“
” 38


You want to know more about the beneﬁts of AI?

Perception
by the public5.
40


5.1. Super powerful machines
5.2. Our new friends
5.3. Threat to the job market
5.4. Extermination of the
human race
41


5.1. Super powerful machines
42

1987
2011
2015
2014
In popular culture, robots are often ﬁgured
as super performing and indestructible
machines whose strength surpasses that
of humans. This reﬂects people’s fantasy of
the invincible and immortal creature.

5.2. Our new friends
43

1999
2012
2005
2015
2013
Smart machines are perceived positively
by humans and accepted in society as
long as they demonstrate human
characteristics such as emotion and
feelings.

You want to know more about the perception by the public?

PART 2 /
REAL-LIFE
APPLICATIONS
45


Lifestyle
1.
46


1.1. Medical Care
1.2. Education
1.3. Home
1.4. Work
1.5. Mobility
1.6. Personal assistants
47


1.1. Medical care
#NursingRobot #ProcedureAutomation #SurgeonAssistants
48


Medical care
Unveiled in February 2015, Robear is a
Japanese nursing robot that is designed to
help with elder care. Japan has one of the
largest aging populations in the world, so this
is incredibly important. Robear is able to lift
elderly patients out of bed and into
wheelchairs, as well as helping those who
need assistance to stand up. Robear weighs
in at 140kg, and is the successor to heavier
robots RIBA and RIBA-II.
49


Medical care
Veebot is an intelligent machine that aims to
make the whole procedure of
venipuncture automated. In doing so, it
will reduce error and decrease venipuncture
times. The company claims the robot can
use imaging technology to ﬁnd the right vein,
draw the blood, and mark for the lab far
faster than any human. Beneﬁts include
hospitals and clinics’ money savings, while it
reduces the risk of injury to practitioners, and
improves comfort and care for patients.

50


1.2. Education
#RobotTeacher #DigitalPen #VirtualConcierge
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Education
Two humanoid robots, Max and Ben, have
been helping teach children with autism at
Topcliffe Primary, in the UK. Head teacher Ian
Lowe said: "The robots have no emotion, so
autistic children ﬁnd them less threatening
than their teachers and easier to engage
with."

52


Education
Poppy is an open-source platform for
the creation, use and sharing of
interactive 3D printed robots. It
gathers an interdisciplinary community
of beginners and experts, scientists,
educators, developers and artists, that
all share a vision: robots are powerful
tools to learn and be creative.

53


You want to know more about the applications of AI in lifestyle?

Consumption
2.
55


2.1. Retail
2.2. Food & Drink
2.3. Hospitality
2.4. Entertainment
56


2.1. Retail
#RobotAssistant #Personnalization #Beacons #VirtualCloset
57


Retail
Japanese giant Toshiba aims to enhance the
in-store experience with the creation of a
humanoid robot-assistant named Aiko
Chihira. Situated at the information desk of
a department store in Tokyo, it is supposed
to help customers ﬁnd their way around but
is unlikely to engage in smalltalk. The female-
looking robot only speaks Japanese - but
she is also capable of sign language. Chihira
also blinks, bows and moves its mouth and
lips smoothly while speaking.

58


Retail
US shoe retailer Steve Madden is now
using predictive analytics through
Certona, the leader in real-time
omnichannel personalization, to
connect customers with the fashion
and products they love in a way that is
personal, unique and targeted to each
individual. Indeed, the patented
technology enables the brand to
identify new and speciﬁc customer
segments, and then strategically target
content by segment. When shoppers
navigate Steve Madden’s interactive,
digital ecosystem, they receive
personalized content and offers that
appeal to their individual preferences.

59


2.2. Food & Drink
#VendingMachine #MobileApp #SelfTracking
60


Food & Drink
UK-based company Smart Vend
Solutions has created an intelligent
vending machine that uses facial
recognition technology to remember
users' previous purchases and product
preferences and replace unhealthy crisps
and sweets with healthier food options.
The machine is linked to an existing
database of self-registered subscribers,
which makes it able to personally greet
customers, recall their past purchases
and even refuse to sell them products
based on their age, dietary requirements
and medical history.

61


Food & Drink
Californian start-up BitBite has created
an in-ear wearable device that tracks
and analyses eating habits. It uses
sensors to measure bite count, number of
calories consumed, and the speed and
quality of chewing. It can then offer tips
on improving eating habits and calorie
intake via an accompanying smartphone
app. BitBite has surpassed its $60,000
crowdfunding goal on website Indiegogo,
and is currently into production.
62


You want to know more about the applications of AI in consumption?

PART 3 /
THE LIMITS
64


1.1. Robots remain robots
1.2. Technical imperfections
1.3. Ethics and moral
1.4. Digital detox
1.5. Naming issue
65


1.1. Robots remain robots

As of 2015, computers are still not able to
simulate human behavior. This is essentially
due to the failure to demonstrate linguistic
intelligence. If they can be attentive and
empathetic, they remain pretty functional and
can’t maintain a proper conversation.
66


1.2. Technical imperfections
Risk of a breakdown, data loss,
cyberattacks, not to mention viruses, system
failures and general bugs… AI is not exempt
of malware, which highlights its current
vulnerability. In the current state of
technology, systems are not free from
hacking and bugs, which are still annoying to
users. Yet, the ﬁrst thing users ask from tech
is that their devices work seamlessly,
simultaneously and without interruption.
Besides, because A.I. algorithms are being
asked to make always higher-stakes
decisions, such as driving cars and
controlling robots, the impact of technical
issues and attacks are likely to be much
more devastating than they were in the past.

Source: International Journal of Scientiﬁc Engineering and Research,
September 2013
Source: Medium.com, January 2015
67


You want to know more about the limits of AI?

Thank you
Contacts:
Roxane Baché, Director of Trends & Insights roxane.bache@usbek-et-rica.fr
Jérôme Ruskin, Founder & CEO jerome.ruskin@usbek-et-rica.fr
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The Forecast // Artificial Intelligence

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