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The Entrepreneurial Mindset Part II

           Christopher Zobrist
        czobrist@cal.berkeley.edu
Review from Last Week
1. What are the two types of thinking?
2. Which type is better and why?
     (Hint: This is a trick question!)
Answers




                                         Causal
                     E ff
                            ec
                               tu
                                    al
       and now…
What kind of situation should
 I use effectual logic?
What is Uncertainty?
3 Urns Analogy




Predictable        Risky       Unpredictable
Knightian Uncertainty
• What is the
  difference between
  Risk and
  Uncertainty?
• Uncertainty is
  immeasurable
• Risk is measurable
Two Approaches to Deal with
       Uncertainty




 Causal             Effectual
Team Exercise: Co-Creating
           Opportunities
• Your product is a Green pen
 (The product can be anything)
• Your customer wants a Blue pen
 (The product attribute can be anything)
Discussion: How would you respond?
Four Logical Approaches
           High
         Prediction




Low Prediction
         Low Control          High
                             Control
Effectuation in Action
• Read Cold Opportunity
  Case (A)
• Put yourself in Nils’
  position.
 – Your event has been rained
   out
 – You are out of money
• What would you do?
What did Nils do?IGLOO
Cold Opportunity Case B
• Read Cold Opportunity
  Case B
• Absolut will not
  respond to your
  request for partnership.
• What would you do?
Cold Opportunity Case C
• Read Cold
  Opportunity Case C
• What risk did Nils
  take?
• How does Nils make
  money?
• What is his business
  worth?
Hotels
Weddings
Bars



ICEBAR London

                       ICEBAR Singapore
Carving and Shipping Ice




 Over 1 million glasses per year!
•   Nils started as a worker in a mine
•   His first business was as a river rafting tour guide
•   His first ice sculpture show was rained out
•   So what’s your excuse?




               JUST DO IT!

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The Entrepreneurial Mindset Part II

Editor's Notes

  1. Urn 1 (Predictable) – Made of clear glass, so you can see inside and calculate the ratio. Urn 2 (Risky) – You can not see inside, but can draw a few items out to calculate the approximate probability. Urn 3 (Unpredictable) – Can not see inside, and each item you draw is different from the last, so you can’ t predict what will be next.