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The Elephant & The
      Dragon
     Abhishek Jain
Source CIA World Factbook
                                    India             China
Population (July 2006)      1.1 b (1.38% )     1.3 (0.59%)
GDP (exh rate) (2006)       $796.1 billion     $2.512 trillion
GDP (PPP)                   $4.042 trillion    $10 trillion
GDP Real Growth             8.5%               10.5%
Per Capita GDP              $3,700             $7,600
         Agriculture        19.9%              11.9%
            Industry        19.3% (g = 7.5%)   48.1% ( g = 22.9%)
            Services        60.7%              40%
Labor Force                 509.3 million      798 million
Inflation rate (CPI)        5.3%               1.5%
Investment                  29.2% of GDP       44.3% of GDP
Debt - external             $132.1 billion     $305.6 billion
China Story
Why China is growing fast?




Prior to the 1978 reforms, nearly four in five Chinese worked in
agriculture; by 1994, only one in two did.
Pillars of Performance
Chinese reforms started with agriculture.
  Incentive to use underutilized land and labor resources
  intensively.
  When rural incomes rose, the demand for non-agricultural
  output increased proportionately.
Labor-intensive manufactures for export promotion
by developing infrastructure mainly in the southern
coastal cities using FDI
Diaspora to substitute lack of local entrepreneurship
& technology
Pillars of Performance …
Marry Chinese cheap labor resources with
Hong Kong's market-based institutions,
business organizations and supply chain
networks to make a successful entry into the
world market
Comprehensively Beaten?
India – Poised
Expectation
Reality
India – World Factory?
India Infrastructure Challenge



High cost of power
Inefficient ports
Poor Roads
Railway cross subsidize passenger with freight
High Cost of Finance
Way to go!
Social
Red Indian
How will India rein in its fiscal deficit?
How will India discipline its political class?
How will India deregulate its over-regulated
economy?
How long will world
  remain Flat?
Globalization has Improved the
Inflation and Growth Trade-Off
Is China's growing lead
over India irreversible?
Chinese Whisper
Infirmities in its microeconomic, institutional and
entrepreneurial bases raise doubts on the sustainability of
its superior performance.
High capital-output ratio suggests excess capacities, and
probably misallocation and wastage of capital resources.
Industrial structure fragmented by scale and location
leading to poor efficiency
Legal framework of business is still rudimentary
Lack entrepreneurial groups
Collapse of D'Long - China's largest private company
with operations worldwide
China’s Capi-toll
Capital stock grew by nearly 7 percent a year
over 1979–94
But capital-output ratio has hardly budged.
  Production of goods and services per unit of
  capital remained about the same.
  Financing of unprofitable investment – Political
  rather than economic decision logic!
  NPA between 25 – 50% of GDP
Chalte Chalte




                2005 Data

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The Elephant & The Dragon

  • 1. The Elephant & The Dragon Abhishek Jain
  • 2.
  • 3. Source CIA World Factbook India China Population (July 2006) 1.1 b (1.38% ) 1.3 (0.59%) GDP (exh rate) (2006) $796.1 billion $2.512 trillion GDP (PPP) $4.042 trillion $10 trillion GDP Real Growth 8.5% 10.5% Per Capita GDP $3,700 $7,600 Agriculture 19.9% 11.9% Industry 19.3% (g = 7.5%) 48.1% ( g = 22.9%) Services 60.7% 40% Labor Force 509.3 million 798 million Inflation rate (CPI) 5.3% 1.5% Investment 29.2% of GDP 44.3% of GDP Debt - external $132.1 billion $305.6 billion
  • 5. Why China is growing fast? Prior to the 1978 reforms, nearly four in five Chinese worked in agriculture; by 1994, only one in two did.
  • 6. Pillars of Performance Chinese reforms started with agriculture. Incentive to use underutilized land and labor resources intensively. When rural incomes rose, the demand for non-agricultural output increased proportionately. Labor-intensive manufactures for export promotion by developing infrastructure mainly in the southern coastal cities using FDI Diaspora to substitute lack of local entrepreneurship & technology
  • 7. Pillars of Performance … Marry Chinese cheap labor resources with Hong Kong's market-based institutions, business organizations and supply chain networks to make a successful entry into the world market
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  • 14. India – World Factory?
  • 15. India Infrastructure Challenge High cost of power Inefficient ports Poor Roads Railway cross subsidize passenger with freight
  • 16. High Cost of Finance
  • 19. Red Indian How will India rein in its fiscal deficit? How will India discipline its political class? How will India deregulate its over-regulated economy?
  • 20. How long will world remain Flat?
  • 21. Globalization has Improved the Inflation and Growth Trade-Off
  • 22. Is China's growing lead over India irreversible?
  • 23. Chinese Whisper Infirmities in its microeconomic, institutional and entrepreneurial bases raise doubts on the sustainability of its superior performance. High capital-output ratio suggests excess capacities, and probably misallocation and wastage of capital resources. Industrial structure fragmented by scale and location leading to poor efficiency Legal framework of business is still rudimentary Lack entrepreneurial groups Collapse of D'Long - China's largest private company with operations worldwide
  • 24. China’s Capi-toll Capital stock grew by nearly 7 percent a year over 1979–94 But capital-output ratio has hardly budged. Production of goods and services per unit of capital remained about the same. Financing of unprofitable investment – Political rather than economic decision logic! NPA between 25 – 50% of GDP
  • 25. Chalte Chalte 2005 Data