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The Economy of Things
Extracting new value from the Internet of Things IBM Institute for Business Value
Transforming businesses as
the Internet of Things expands
As a global electronics company, IBM understands the
issues facing the high-tech industry and the continuous
transformation required to thrive. Across the industry,
companies are turning their attention from business equipment
to a new generation of connected devices that will transform
not just the electronics industry, but many others. The IBM
Global Electronics practice uniquely combines IBM and
partner services, hardware, software and research into
integrated solutions that can help you deliver innovation,
create differentiated customer experiences and optimize
your global operations.
Executive Report
Electronics Industry
Executive summary
With the invention of the printing press, Johannes Gutenberg reduced the marginal cost of
copying and distributing information by an order of magnitude. As the printing press matured
and scaled, books and the information they carried were transformed from being luxuries for
the wealthy into everyday necessities.1
The printing press made information cheap. The Internet made it almost free. Indexed,
searchable and infinitely available, changes in the economics of digital information such as
online news have been revolutionary and disruptive. Information may be as valuable and
powerful as ever, but where the invisible hand of the market is not tied down by copyright laws,
a marginal distribution cost of zero inevitably means a market-clearing price (the price at
which the market can avail of it) that is also zero.
The widespread availability of personal computers and mobile phones brought liquidity to
markets in information and for anything that could be fully represented, bought or sold entirely
online, including: music, movies, traffic information, weather, news, stocks, bonds and even
airline tickets. The easier it was to digitally represent the item, the faster a liquid market emerged
to support that commodity.
The reach and power of this revolution has had limits, however. And they are primarily to do with
the intersection between the digital world and the physical world. The greater the degree to which
a marketplace depends on information and actions in the physical world, the lower the impact.
From the Internet of Things to
an Economy of Things
Thanks to the Internet of Things (IoT), physical assets
are turning into participants in real-time global digital
markets. The countless types of assets around us will
become as easily indexed, searched and traded as any
online commodity. While some industries will be
tougher to transform than others – those with physical
limitations, such as manufacturing, will be harder to
digitize – untold economic opportunities exist for
growth and advancement.
Our research shows this will create a new “Economy of
Things” with significant consequences. Here, we
explore this transformation, including what could
happen to industry profit pools, as well as the likely
impacts on existing players in different industries.
The IoT can create
liquid marketplaces
of physical assets by
enabling real-time
discoverability,
usability and payment.
Instrumentation and
digitization can
revolutionize credit
and lending by
building more accurate
pictures of risk.
Insights from IoT
devices in industries
that are not
technology-intensive
could yield substantial
gains in efficiency.
1
Figure 1
The IoT will more than just connect and automate systems, it will
create an Economy of Things
Physical world
Search
Manage
Monetize
So while industries like newspapers and music have been completely transformed, the
impact on industries like retailing and manufacturing has been much less. Companies like
Amazon have had a big impact on retailers, bringing price transparency and global inventory
availability into markets that were previously fragmented and information poor.
Many industries still retain their essential structure and participants even if the Internet has
brought great transparency to the business as a whole. The industries least transformed by
the Internet are the ones with the most unstructured or unavailable information.
From real estate to trucking to farming, many industries lack the ability to easily represent all
their information digitally and to provide an integrated marketplace in which to build liquid
transactions. Once products and assets leave the controlled environment of warehouses,
factories and offices, it has traditionally been difficult to digitally represent their identity or
status. Without that, it is challenging to create a liquid, digital marketplace for the asset,
product or service.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is now poised to bring the same real-time information and liquid
marketplaces by enabling searching, managing and monetizing assets in the physical world
(see Figure 1). That won’t just mean smart homes that light up when you arrive or washing
machines that text you when the cycle is done. The IoT will turn physical assets into
participants in real-time global digital markets.
We call this the “liquification of the physical world.” Assets around us will become as easily
indexed, searched and traded as any online commodity. The Internet of Things will become
the Economy of Things. To explore the impact of this transformation, we first look at a
historical case of digital industry disruption, then present the findings of macro-economic
case studies that we developed in collaboration with Oxford Economics.
2	 The Economy of Things
Lessons from the past: A full lifecycle of industry
disruption
So far, forecasts of disruption have been primarily just interesting speculation. Instrumentation
and data-driven transformation have been underway in a number of industries, but are far from
complete. To get a better understanding of what a full cycle – of disruption, transformation and
rebirth – looks like, we studied an industry that has completed the full cycle: Air transport.
Starting in 1953, IBM pioneered the digitization of the global airline industry.2
The starting
point was the Semi-Automated Booking  Reservations Engine (SABRE), the world’s first
digital online reservation system created by IBM for American Airlines. By the 1970s, online
reservation systems were standard and nearly every seat on every flight in the world was part
of a real-time global marketplace.3
Airlines, however, were not much of a marketplace at the time, since every flight, price and
schedule was controlled – within the U.S. by the Civil Aeronautics Board and globally through
a network of bilateral treaties. Air travel was expensive and strictly controlled.
In 1978, the United States abolished much of the regulatory infrastructure on air transport
pricing. The result was not just a free market in air travel, but one of the first markets where every
physical asset was digitized and placed into a single global online marketplace. The result was a
radical transformation of the entire airline industry, first in the U.S. and then globally.4
Armed with detailed information about their own asset utilization, available seats and
schedules from online systems, the first thing that airlines did was try to improve their asset
utilization, increasing both flight hours flown by planes each day and developing pricing
systems to sell empty seats. The predictable result, in addition to increased competition, was
excess capacity and plunging prices (see Figure 2).
Indeed, prices for air travel are roughly half what they were prior to deregulation and the
industry itself is vastly larger and more efficient. In the 1970s, typical industry load factors were
just about 55-60 percent and the average plane flew between 6-7 hours per day. Today, most
Figure 2
As a result of digital asset management, fares for air travel have
halved since deregulation in 1978
Averageairfare(constant2000USD)
Average U.S. airfares, adjusted for inflation,
1979-2013
0
125
250
375
500
1979 1990 2001 2013
3
flights average closer to 85-90 percent full and the most efficient airlines have planes
operating up to 14 hours every day.5
Consumers and airline-related industries have benefitted enormously from this transformation.
Airlines themselves have struggled. Legacy costs including restrictive labor agreements and
poorly utilized infrastructure have driven nearly every major U.S. airline through at least one
bankruptcy restructuring. Between 2000 and 2012, investors in the airline industry lost a
cumulative USD 44 billion (see Figure 3).6
Even as the airlines were plunging into bankruptcy, the companies that manage these
complex online marketplaces for them were sustainably profitable. When it was spun out of
Figure 3
Airlines have struggled through multiple bankruptcies since 2000
Revenue,USDbillions
U.S. airline industry profits, 2000-2013
-23
-11
0
11
23
-34
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 2010
2011 2012
2013
Sum of all profit since 2000
-44 billion
4	 The Economy of Things
American Airlines in 1999, the online reservation engine SABRE was worth more than its
parent company. SABRE even faced anti-trust investigation over fears that its control of the
distribution system gave American Airlines an unfair advantage.7
The story does not end, however, with airlines going bankrupt and online marketplaces
becoming all-powerful. Today, the U.S. airline industry is once again solidly and consistently
profitable for the first time since deregulation (see Figure 4).
From this 50-year saga of transformation, we believe it is possible not only to validate the
realism of our case studies in other industries, but also to draw some good conclusions about
viable strategies for companies facing their own digital market transformations from the IoT.
Figure 4
Airline industry revenue has been steadily increasing, with airlines once again worth more than their distribution systems
Revenue,USDbillions
Total U.S. airline industry revenue, 1995-2013, USD billions
0
40
30
120
160
1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
Low-cost carriers
Network carriers
5
Modeling future transformation: Three vectors of
disruption
What are the means by which the IoT will transform industries? To answer this and other
questions, we developed case study macro-economic models in collaboration with Oxford
Economics New York and London. Each model was designed to best represent the industry
and geography being analyzed.
Our models of marketplace transformation were structured in terms of three vectors of
disruption from the IoT: asset marketplaces, risk management and efficiency (see Figure 5).8
The creation of asset marketplaces unlocks excess capacity of physical assets and enables
instant search, use and payment for available physical assets. Radical re-pricing of credit and
risk supports digitally managed risk and credit assessment, and virtual repossession and
reduced moral hazard. Improved operational efficiency allows unsupervised usage of
systems and devices, and reduces transaction and marketing costs.
In this report, we feature modeling results for three industries: commercial real estate, SMB
lending and farming. While the models are industry-specific, the conclusions are scalable.
They support a cohesive and globally relevant argument about digital marketplaces and new
economic value from the IoT that companies must begin to prepare for.
Figure 5
The economic models were constructed around the three vectors of
disruption from the IoT
Creating asset marketplaces
Improving efficiencyManaging risk
6	 The Economy of Things
Creating asset marketplaces
In the 1960s and 1970s, digitizing the market for airline seats was a colossal undertaking,
requiring enormous manual intervention and data entry to keep an up to date global record of
airline seats and aircraft movements. Today, battery-powered Bluetooth beacons and
smartphones can be used to instrument all kinds of new markets and assets that were
previously too complex or costly to track and manage.
The number of industries that are likely to be digitized and instrumented to unlock value from
previously illiquid assets is enormous. Working with Oxford Economics, we modeled the
commercial real estate industry to understand its transformation by the IoT.
Case study: Commercial real estate
The world of commercial real estate is very complex. There is a vast amount of space:
12B square feet in the U.S. alone; but only 67 percent is utilized.9
Supply is not monolithic;
90 metropolitan areas account for 5.7B square feet of space.10
Large tenants dominate the
market: those occupying more than 50,000 square feet account for 36 percent of all rented
space.11
Demand for commercial office space is a function of geographic, cultural, strategic
and industry considerations. For example, the median square footage per employee in a U.S.
law firm is four times that of a U.S. call center and 5.5 times that of office space in China.12
The
commercial real estate market suffers high turnover rates, is often sub-optimal and illiquid.
The IoT can help correct this market failure by instrumentation and digitization. Sensors,
coupled with understanding of utilization, can create liquid marketplaces of real estate by
enabling real-time discoverability, usability and payment. For example, as real-estate assets
become digitally tagged, managed and shared, new services and marketplaces are being
built to rent space during off-hours and offer conference rooms as classrooms. Vendors are
already enabling these technologies and the number of digital marketplace services
associated with them is growing rapidly.
Carsharing services improve auto
and fleet utilization
Daimler’s moovel GmbH offers the car2go
carsharing service, the Park2gether platform
and the moovel smartphone app. car2go is
available in 26 cities in Europe and North
America with more than 800,000 users. The first
carsharing system in the world without fixed
rental locations, car2go is creating a new
segment and expanding to commercial fleets
to improve fleet capacity utilization and cost.
Park2gether is another innovative solution
for searching and reserving parking spaces
in cities.
7
We modeled the potential of this transformation in the U.S. commercial real estate market
using 2014 office space and price estimates. Based on 50 percent behavioral adoption rates
of IoT technologies, we analyzed the impact of unlocking capacity from vacancies, shadow
space, hoteling and “hot-desking” (workspace sharing), as well as improved utilization hours.
The expected result: a remarkable 39 percent increase in available space.
Our model shows that the infusion of an additional 39 percent capacity can drive a 42 percent
reduction in price per square foot. This effective additional space will not become available
overnight, nor will it be evenly distributed. But even small amounts of capacity coming online
can have a huge impact on pricing and market expectations. As real estate rental prices fall,
the industry and consumers, both existing and induced, will see a benefit of USD 142B per
annum. Producers or lessors in this case would struggle, seeing a USD 14B loss as new
marketplaces emerge offering alternative, lower-cost office space options. Even as profit
pools shift in this transformation, the net benefit of USD 128B per annum will mean lower
costs and greater productivity for the industry (see Figure 6).
As adoption of new commercial real estate services increases, consumer behavior could
drive higher price sensitivity and lower margins as competition increases. Our model allows
interactively exploring these effects for alternate net benefits to the industry ranging from USD
96B to USD 154B per annum.
Figure 6
Real-time markets for commercial real estate can increase capacity,
lower real estate prices and increase overall profitability of the industry
U.S. commercial
real estate
IoT-enabled
marketplaces
Industry disruption
67
12B
67%
utilization
42%
real estate prices
128B
net industry benefit
67
39%
virtual
capacity
50%
IoT-
adoption
8	 The Economy of Things
Managing risk
As sweeping as the transformations are that will come from unlocking the capacity of physical
assets, it is only one part of the industry transformation to come. Another area that promises
vast new opportunities is the accurate pricing of credit and risk. The provision of credit and
management of risk today in many economies is a crude business, as crude as advertising was
in the era of newspapers and television.
InstrumentationanddigitizationenabledbymobilephonesandtheIoTpromisearevolutioninhow
creditandriskaremanaged.Combiningdeviceinstrumentation,digitalmoney,GPSlogsandsocial
networks,itwillbepossibleforfinancialinstitutionstobuildmuchmoreaccuratepicturesofriskand
simultaneouslyreducethecostofrepossession.WorkingwithOxfordEconomics,wemodeledthe
impactoftheIoTonSMBcreditmarketsinSouthAfrica.
Case study: SMB credit in South Africa
The credit market for small and medium businesses (SMBs) in South Africa represents a very
interesting case study. The SMB credit market in South Africa is very polarized. A sophisticated
banking system serves large enterprises and formal SMBs with credit and other financial
services. But informal SMBs, accounting for 51 percent of the SMB market, have little to no
access to reasonably priced credit and amount to only 8 percent of all bank lending.13, 14
The market failure is two-fold: financial institutions have no credit profile to lend against and
no reliable methods of contract reinforcement.
The IoT can help address these market failures by providing very granular data on users and
usage of assets. Financial institutions could better understand and price risks associated with
informal SMBs that were previously too opaque to deal with. Remote tracking and virtual disabling
of assets and devices could help improve borrower behavior and reduce loan delinquency.
Digital verification reduces
lending risk
Bancoomeva is a financial organization that is
part of the Coomeva Group with a long history
of issuing credit to the unbanked population.
Bancoomeva is primarily a personal banking
company with 90 locations in 40 cities in
Colombia and a customer base of 300,000.
Using digital ID verification, the bank’s mobile
loan sellers are now armed with qualifying data
on credit history and loan behavior that
decreases risk, and increases closing ratios and
customer access to credit.
9
Informed by the role information opacity plays in the informal credit market in South Africa,
we constructed scenarios where IoT technologies reasonably allow for capture of up to 50
percent of the informal SMB credit market.15
By accessing 50 percent of informal SMBs, the
quantity of credit supplied could increase by USD 10B in 2014 dollars. This is equivalent to a 9
percent increase in total corporate lending. The combined effect of virtual enforcement reducing
the cost of lending could provide up to 1 percentage point reduction in interest rates (see Figure
7). To a washerwoman choosing between buying a washing machine on credit and four hours of
hard laundry labor a day; access to reasonably priced credit represents a path to prosperity.
Overtime,theexpansionofcredithasenormouspotentialtogrowthebroadereconomy.Usingthe
OxfordEconomicsglobaleconomymodelweestimatedthatby2020,eveninisolation,thisinfusion
ofcredittotheinformalSMBsectorcouldresultina0.8percentgrowthinSouthAfricanGDP.
Figure 7
By turning the usage history of devices into credit-rating data, the IoT
can transform credit and risk pricing in South Africa
South African
lending market
IoT-enabled
pricing
Industry disruption
237B
8%
informal SMBs
1%
interest rates
growth in GDP
10B
credit infusion
.8% 50%
IoT-adoption
0.8%
10	 The Economy of Things
Improving efficiency through insights
Finally, there are whole sectors of the economy where information technology is yet to make a
significant impact. In these sectors, not only is there the possibility to create new markets and
better manage risk, but the opportunity is highest to create entirely new value.
Historically, industries that are not technology-intensive have represented 49 percent of the
US economy.16
The IoT will bring the benefits of the information revolution to these industries.
Working with Oxford Economics, we modeled the sector of the economy with the lowest IT
intensity: farming, where IT accounts for just 1 percent of all capital spending.17
Case study: The frontiers of farming
Agriculture is a driving force of the economy, but it remains a challenging business. For all the
scientific progress that has been made, much remains to be understood. Crop yields are the
result of complex biochemical and physical interactions of land, seed and weather over a
growing season and are subject to uncertain variation. Within the space of just two years, U.S.
average corn-for-grain yield varied 39 percent from 123 bushels per acre during the drought
of 2012 to a record 171 bushels per acre in 2014.18
As a bumper sticker says, “Farming is
legalized gambling.” The challenge is to know what to do where and when to do it.
The IoT is at the center of a digital transformation in agriculture that addresses this challenge.
Sensor technologies are enabling the coupling of real-time data collection with accurate
position information to better correlate production decisions and farm yields with environmental
factors.19
Uniform field management is being replaced by intelligent variable-rate, site-specific
treatments, thanks to an array of IoT technologies, including field sensors for detailed
monitoring, instrumented farm equipment for optimized planting and spraying, and drones for
large-scale surveillance. These technologies could enable more intensive farming of land and
better-integrated farm management practices that will bolster productivity through efficiency.
Integrated IoT platform increases
farm productivity
OnFarm, founded in California, one of the richest
agricultural regions in the world, integrates field
and cloud data from multiple partners into a
single cloud-based farm information system.
OnFarm’s platform aggregates and analyzes
real-time data – from soil moisture data to
weather data to image data on crop health – for
better farm management. Farmers gain insights
through an intelligent dashboard to make more
informed decisions that improve farm
productivity and profitability.
11
The relative abundance of arable land in the U.S. has lent itself to maximizing scalable
efficiency of capital equipment rather than the output of land. While studies indicate that North
America leads in agricultural output per worker,20
Northwest Europe’s land productivity is 2.25
times greater per hectare than the U.S. and Asian land productivity is 1.72 times greater.21
Informed by the potential of digital agriculture to achieve the benefit of the world’s best labor
and land management practices, we examined the economic value from the U.S. realizing the
highest land productivity of Northwest Europe over a time horizon of 5 years. By increasing land
productivity to the same level as Northwest Europe, the U.S could achieve a 2 percent increase
in real GDP from an increase in agricultural gross value added (GVA) of 125 percent.22
This
would also result in a 6 percent drop in food prices (see Figure 8).23
According to the FAO, to feed the estimated 8.5 billion world population in the year 2025,
current world food production will have to more than double.24
Instrumenting and digitizing
every step in the agriculture process could yield significant return for farmers and their
ecosystem partners to meet the rising need.
Figure 8
By instrumenting and digitizing the agriculture process, the IoT can
improve productivity in farming
Productivity
per hectare
6%
food prices
2%
real GDP
1.72x
2.25x
2.25x In 5 years
Northwest Europe Asia U.S.
U.S. agriculture
IoT-enabled
agriculture
Industry disruption
12	 The Economy of Things
How to prepare for digital transformation
Warren Buffet famously remarked that if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty
Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge financial favor by shooting down the Wright
brothers before they could fly the first airplane.25
His statement seems to be an accurate (if
bleak) assessment of the airline business: the U.S. airline industry has not, collectively, made a
profit since 1978.
As other industries start to go through similar cycles of digital transformation enabled by the
IoT, we can help prepare companies for this transformation. Important actions include:
Evaluate opportunities for new digital marketplaces
From airlines to taxicabs, hotels and office cubicles, traditional measures of capacity have not
been well understood. Our case studies show that capacity utilization of fixed assets is much
lower than was believed prior to instrumentation and the ultimate potential is even higher. As
the IoT instruments everything around us and unleashes significant new capacity, new
marketplaces will emerge everywhere.
As these new marketplaces evolve, it will become apparent that it’s not just about asset
utilization: it’s about whole new business models. Higher asset utilization rates will lead to
price wars from excess capacity. Online marketplaces will become more valuable and
powerful than big market participants. Existing market participants will restructure to take out
cost. As direct costs come under control and asset utilization becomes optimized, market
participants will turn their attention to slashing distribution costs and building direct client
relationships, making the market power of intermediaries ephemeral.
13
Recommendations: Electronics executives must take into account that the digitization of
physical assets will impact not just industry players, but also the way products and services
are experienced. Companies should begin to use IoT instrumentation to obtain a better
understanding of asset utilization and identify their roles in digital marketplaces that could
evolve with respect to under-utilized assets. Electronics companies will need to lead the way
– not just participate – in the Economy of Things, by connecting devices with back-end
systems to support new marketplaces.
Analyze IoT data and act on the insights
Different industries and economies will experience a mix of different effects from the IoT, as
our case studies demonstrate. The IoT will create growth, but profit pools will not be
preserved. Nor will the distribution of benefits be even. But, in so transforming the physical
world around us, the Economy of Things will unleash unprecedented opportunities for the
global economy.
Industry growth and transformation are not the same as profitability. The airline industry is an
order of magnitude larger today than in 1978. Massive growth in air travel has created
enormous value for hotels, tourism, airports and aircraft manufacturers, if not for the airlines
themselves. Though some marketplace participants will struggle like this, at a
macroeconomic level we are all winners in the transformation of industries by the IoT.
Recommendations: The IoT is no longer just about instrumenting devices, it is about using
insights from devices. Electronics executives must understand that IoT data generated from
devices has potential for insights across the value chain. The winners in this transformation
14	 The Economy of Things
will use IoT data to obtain deep, personal insights and make real-time decisions, integrating
real-time data and insights directly into business operations. In the process, companies must
redefine how they control that data and use it to securely deliver value across the system while
maintaining privacy.
Begin the journey for collaborative value
The cycle time for change is compressing. Though it is early, the rate of these industry
transformations is getting much faster. What took from 1960 to 2010 in the airline industry will
probably be happen in other industries in less than a decade. Today, the ability to create fully
distributed online marketplaces that can operate securely without transaction fees will further
accelerate this transformation.
Where consumers lead, enterprises will follow. Consumers have been much faster to embrace
online marketplaces, using aggregators and jumping on new apps and services to take
advantage of good deals. Consumers consistently have embraced these opportunities before
enterprises, so whatever consumer marketplace services exist today, expect to see
enterprises adopting them tomorrow.
Recommendations: Companies need to seize the opportunities from IoT industry disruption
to their advantage. A first step is to start with projects that promise clear ROI – implementing
asset optimization, and designing products and services to take advantage of intelligent
systems. Leaders in this transformation will study usage patterns, refine their approaches and
optimize their processes.
15
How can you profit from the Economy of Things?
Companies across industries must grasp the scale of IoT transformation that will occur over
the next decade and get ready for its impact. These questions identify useful steps that
executives across industries can take:
•	 What is your plan to manage products with IoT instrumentation and real-time insights?
•	 How will your IoT devices generate new value through improved asset utilization,
risk management and efficiency?
•	 In what ways can your organization analyze IoT data and act on the resulting insights to
monetize physical assets before the rest of the industry catches up?
•	 How will you define your role(s) in new marketplaces that emerge in the new Economy
of Things?
Explore our model assets
The model assets can be downloaded from
the study landing page, ibm.com/business/value/
economyofthings. They are interactive, allowing the
user to explore alternate effects by varying the inputs
to the models.
16	 The Economy of Things
About the authors
Veena Pureswaran is the Global Electronics Industry Leader in the IBM Institute for Business
Value. She has held leadership positions in Electronics product development, strategy and
management. In her current role, she is responsible for leading thought leadership research
for the Electronics industry. She has managed global IBV research studies on technology
strategy and economic impact of 3D printing and the Internet of Things, and has presented
IBV research findings in major industry conferences in Asia, Europe and North America.
Veena can be reached at vpures@us.ibm.com
Dr. Robin Lougee is the Global Research Industry Lead for the Consumer Product and
Agriculture Industries at IBM Research. She is the recipient of the 2014 INFORMS Impact
Award for her pioneering work in open-source for operations research, and has applied
computational mathematics and data sciences to deliver innovations to IBM and its clients
since 1994. Robin can be reached at rlougee@us.ibm.com
Executive sponsor
Bruce Anderson is IBM General Manager, Global Electronics Industry and Member of the IBM
Industry Academy. He is responsible for IBM’s Electronics Industry business worldwide,
including consumer electronics, medical devices, semiconductor, and office, industrial and
network equipment segments. Bruce has a deep understanding of the Electronics industry,
and consults extensively with senior executives to help them optimize business models,
organizations, and operations. He has over 25 years of experience helping companies gain
competitive advantage through innovative strategies and transformation. Bruce previously led
the Industrial Sector supply chain practice as a Partner and Vice President for IBM Global
Business Services. Bruce can be reached at baanders@us.ibm.com
Related publications
Pureswaran, Veena. “Device democracy: Saving the
future of the Internet of Things.” IBM Institute for
Business Value. September 2014. www.ibm.biz/
devicedemocracy
Pureswaran, Veena, Sanjay Panikkar and Nair,
Sumabala. “Empowering the edge: Practical insights
on a decentralized Internet of Things.” IBM Institute for
Business Value. March 2015. www.ibm.biz/
empoweringedge
17
For more information
To learn more about this IBM Institute for Business Value
study, please contact us at iibv@us.ibm.com. Follow @
IBMIBV on Twitter, and for a full catalog of our research
or to subscribe to our monthly newsletter, visit:
ibm.com/iibv
Access IBM Institute for Business Value executive
reports on your phone or tablet by downloading the free
“IBM IBV” app for iOS or Android from your app store.
The right partner for a changing world
At IBM, we collaborate with our clients, bringing
together business insight, advanced research and
technology to give them a distinct advantage in
today’s rapidly changing environment.
IBM Institute for Business Value
IBM Global Business Services, through the IBM
Institute for Business Value, develops fact-based
strategic insights for senior executives around critical
public and private sector issues. This executive report
is based on an in-depth study by the Institute’s
research team. It is part of an ongoing commitment by
IBM Global Business Services to provide analysis and
viewpoints that help companies realize business value.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to recognize the contributions of: Oxford Economics for their
collaboration on this study, as well as Paul Brody, former Vice President and North American
Leader for the IBM Mobile and Internet of Things practice. We also thank IBM SMEs across
the various industries modeled for their reviews and feedback, as well as Angela Finley and Joni
McDonald of the IBM Institute for Business Value for helping to produce this executive report.
18	 The Economy of Things
Notes and sources
1	 Kreis, Steven. “The printing press.” http://historyguide.org/intellect/press.html
2	 “Sabre: The first online reservation system.” http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/
ibm100/us/en/icons/sabre/. Accessed on March 01, 2015
3	 Our history, Sabre: http://www.sabre.com/index.php/about/our-history. Accessed on
March 1, 2015
4	 Airline deregulation: The concise encyclopedia of economics. http://www.econlib.org/
library/Enc/AirlineDeregulation.html. Accessed on March 01, 2015
5	 Bureau of Transportation Statistics, IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
6	 International Air Transport Association, IBM Institute for Business Value analysis
7	 Phillips, Don. “AMR to spin off its stake in Sabre.” Washington Post. http://www.wash-
ingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-12/15/073r-121599-idx.html. Accessed on March
01, 2015
8	 Brody, Paul and Veena Pureswaran. “Device democracy: Saving the future of the Internet
of Things.” IBM Institute for Business Value. September 2014. www.ibm.biz/devicede-
mocracy
9	 Miller, N. (2014). “Workplace Trends in Office Space: Implications for Future Office
Demand.” http://www.normmiller.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Estimating_Office_
Space_Requirements-Feb-17-2014.pdf
10	ibid.
19
11	 Miller, N (2014) and Miller, N (2012). “Estimating Office Space per Worker.” https://www.
ccimef.org/pdf/2012-6.Estimating-Office-Space-per-Worker.5-1-12.pdf
12	ibid.
13	 IMF, IFS data via Haver. Oxford Economics analysis.
14	 Berg, G. and M. Fuchs. “Bank Financing of SMES in Five Sub-Saharan African Countries:
The role of competition, innovation and the government.” The World Bank, 2013.
15	 “Literature Review on Small and Medium Enterprises’ Access to Credit and Support in
South Africa” National Credit Regulator 2011. Relating to FinScope Small Business Sur-
vey, South Africa 2010. Oxford Economics and IBM Institute for Business Value analysis.
16	 Jorgenson, Dale W., Harvard University, Mun Ho, Harvard University and Jon Samuels,
Bureau of Economic Analysis. “Long term estimates of U.S. productivity and growth.”
http://www.worldklems.net/conferences/worldklems2014/worldklems2014_Ho.pdf
17	ibid.
18	 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_
Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.asp; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis.
19	 IBM Institute for Business Value analysis. http://www.gps.gov/applications/agriculture/
20	 The Economy of Things
20	Fuglie, Keith and Sun Lin Wang (2012) New Evidence Points to Robust But Uneven Pro-
ductivity Growth in Global Agriculture. http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-sep-
tember/global-agriculture.aspx#.VXOpPGMkHp8
21	 Fuglie, Wang and Ball (2012). http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-september/
global-agriculture.aspx#.VRsJMCm7OHw. Data from the FAO of the United Nations.
22	United States Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service. http:/www.ers.
usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx; Oxford Economics
analysis.
23	FAO food price index. http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/; Ox-
ford Economics analysis.
24	FAO corporate document repository. Feeding the world: The search for food security.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/U8480E/U8480E0a.htm
25	Lawson, Dominic, Robert Peston and Grant Ringshaw. “Warren Buffett: My elephant gun
is loaded.” The Telegraph. September 2, 2002. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/per-
sonalfinance/investing/shares/2774088/Warren-Buffett-My-elephant-gun-is-loaded.html
© Copyright IBM Corporation 2015
Route 100, Somers, NY 10589
Produced in the United States of America, June 2015
IBM, the IBM logo and ibm.com are trademarks of International
Business Machines Corp., registered in many jurisdictions worldwide.
Other product and service names might be trademarks of IBM or other
companies. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the Web at
“Copyright and trademark information” at www.ibm.com/legal/
copytrade.shtml.
This document is current as of the initial date of publication and may be
changed by IBM at any time. Not all offerings are available in every
country in which IBM operates.
The information in this document is provided “as is” without any
warranty, express or implied, including without any warranties of
merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and any warranty or
condition of non-infringement. IBM products are warranted according
to the terms and conditions of the agreements under which they
are provided.
This report is intended for general guidance only. It is not intended to be
a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional
judgment. IBM shall not be responsible for any loss whatsoever
sustained by any organization or person who relies on this publication.
The data used in this report may be derived from third-party sources
and IBM does not independently verify, validate or audit such data. The
results from the use of such data are provided on an “as is” basis and
IBM makes no representations or warranties, express or implied.
GBE03678 -USEN-03
Please Recycle
21
The economy of things exec report v4

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The economy of things exec report v4

  • 1. The Economy of Things Extracting new value from the Internet of Things IBM Institute for Business Value
  • 2. Transforming businesses as the Internet of Things expands As a global electronics company, IBM understands the issues facing the high-tech industry and the continuous transformation required to thrive. Across the industry, companies are turning their attention from business equipment to a new generation of connected devices that will transform not just the electronics industry, but many others. The IBM Global Electronics practice uniquely combines IBM and partner services, hardware, software and research into integrated solutions that can help you deliver innovation, create differentiated customer experiences and optimize your global operations. Executive Report Electronics Industry
  • 3. Executive summary With the invention of the printing press, Johannes Gutenberg reduced the marginal cost of copying and distributing information by an order of magnitude. As the printing press matured and scaled, books and the information they carried were transformed from being luxuries for the wealthy into everyday necessities.1 The printing press made information cheap. The Internet made it almost free. Indexed, searchable and infinitely available, changes in the economics of digital information such as online news have been revolutionary and disruptive. Information may be as valuable and powerful as ever, but where the invisible hand of the market is not tied down by copyright laws, a marginal distribution cost of zero inevitably means a market-clearing price (the price at which the market can avail of it) that is also zero. The widespread availability of personal computers and mobile phones brought liquidity to markets in information and for anything that could be fully represented, bought or sold entirely online, including: music, movies, traffic information, weather, news, stocks, bonds and even airline tickets. The easier it was to digitally represent the item, the faster a liquid market emerged to support that commodity. The reach and power of this revolution has had limits, however. And they are primarily to do with the intersection between the digital world and the physical world. The greater the degree to which a marketplace depends on information and actions in the physical world, the lower the impact. From the Internet of Things to an Economy of Things Thanks to the Internet of Things (IoT), physical assets are turning into participants in real-time global digital markets. The countless types of assets around us will become as easily indexed, searched and traded as any online commodity. While some industries will be tougher to transform than others – those with physical limitations, such as manufacturing, will be harder to digitize – untold economic opportunities exist for growth and advancement. Our research shows this will create a new “Economy of Things” with significant consequences. Here, we explore this transformation, including what could happen to industry profit pools, as well as the likely impacts on existing players in different industries. The IoT can create liquid marketplaces of physical assets by enabling real-time discoverability, usability and payment. Instrumentation and digitization can revolutionize credit and lending by building more accurate pictures of risk. Insights from IoT devices in industries that are not technology-intensive could yield substantial gains in efficiency. 1
  • 4. Figure 1 The IoT will more than just connect and automate systems, it will create an Economy of Things Physical world Search Manage Monetize So while industries like newspapers and music have been completely transformed, the impact on industries like retailing and manufacturing has been much less. Companies like Amazon have had a big impact on retailers, bringing price transparency and global inventory availability into markets that were previously fragmented and information poor. Many industries still retain their essential structure and participants even if the Internet has brought great transparency to the business as a whole. The industries least transformed by the Internet are the ones with the most unstructured or unavailable information. From real estate to trucking to farming, many industries lack the ability to easily represent all their information digitally and to provide an integrated marketplace in which to build liquid transactions. Once products and assets leave the controlled environment of warehouses, factories and offices, it has traditionally been difficult to digitally represent their identity or status. Without that, it is challenging to create a liquid, digital marketplace for the asset, product or service. The Internet of Things (IoT) is now poised to bring the same real-time information and liquid marketplaces by enabling searching, managing and monetizing assets in the physical world (see Figure 1). That won’t just mean smart homes that light up when you arrive or washing machines that text you when the cycle is done. The IoT will turn physical assets into participants in real-time global digital markets. We call this the “liquification of the physical world.” Assets around us will become as easily indexed, searched and traded as any online commodity. The Internet of Things will become the Economy of Things. To explore the impact of this transformation, we first look at a historical case of digital industry disruption, then present the findings of macro-economic case studies that we developed in collaboration with Oxford Economics. 2 The Economy of Things
  • 5. Lessons from the past: A full lifecycle of industry disruption So far, forecasts of disruption have been primarily just interesting speculation. Instrumentation and data-driven transformation have been underway in a number of industries, but are far from complete. To get a better understanding of what a full cycle – of disruption, transformation and rebirth – looks like, we studied an industry that has completed the full cycle: Air transport. Starting in 1953, IBM pioneered the digitization of the global airline industry.2 The starting point was the Semi-Automated Booking Reservations Engine (SABRE), the world’s first digital online reservation system created by IBM for American Airlines. By the 1970s, online reservation systems were standard and nearly every seat on every flight in the world was part of a real-time global marketplace.3 Airlines, however, were not much of a marketplace at the time, since every flight, price and schedule was controlled – within the U.S. by the Civil Aeronautics Board and globally through a network of bilateral treaties. Air travel was expensive and strictly controlled. In 1978, the United States abolished much of the regulatory infrastructure on air transport pricing. The result was not just a free market in air travel, but one of the first markets where every physical asset was digitized and placed into a single global online marketplace. The result was a radical transformation of the entire airline industry, first in the U.S. and then globally.4 Armed with detailed information about their own asset utilization, available seats and schedules from online systems, the first thing that airlines did was try to improve their asset utilization, increasing both flight hours flown by planes each day and developing pricing systems to sell empty seats. The predictable result, in addition to increased competition, was excess capacity and plunging prices (see Figure 2). Indeed, prices for air travel are roughly half what they were prior to deregulation and the industry itself is vastly larger and more efficient. In the 1970s, typical industry load factors were just about 55-60 percent and the average plane flew between 6-7 hours per day. Today, most Figure 2 As a result of digital asset management, fares for air travel have halved since deregulation in 1978 Averageairfare(constant2000USD) Average U.S. airfares, adjusted for inflation,
1979-2013 0 125 250 375 500 1979 1990 2001 2013 3
  • 6. flights average closer to 85-90 percent full and the most efficient airlines have planes operating up to 14 hours every day.5 Consumers and airline-related industries have benefitted enormously from this transformation. Airlines themselves have struggled. Legacy costs including restrictive labor agreements and poorly utilized infrastructure have driven nearly every major U.S. airline through at least one bankruptcy restructuring. Between 2000 and 2012, investors in the airline industry lost a cumulative USD 44 billion (see Figure 3).6 Even as the airlines were plunging into bankruptcy, the companies that manage these complex online marketplaces for them were sustainably profitable. When it was spun out of Figure 3 Airlines have struggled through multiple bankruptcies since 2000 Revenue,USDbillions U.S. airline industry profits, 2000-2013 -23 -11 0 11 23 -34 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sum of all profit since 2000 -44 billion 4 The Economy of Things
  • 7. American Airlines in 1999, the online reservation engine SABRE was worth more than its parent company. SABRE even faced anti-trust investigation over fears that its control of the distribution system gave American Airlines an unfair advantage.7 The story does not end, however, with airlines going bankrupt and online marketplaces becoming all-powerful. Today, the U.S. airline industry is once again solidly and consistently profitable for the first time since deregulation (see Figure 4). From this 50-year saga of transformation, we believe it is possible not only to validate the realism of our case studies in other industries, but also to draw some good conclusions about viable strategies for companies facing their own digital market transformations from the IoT. Figure 4 Airline industry revenue has been steadily increasing, with airlines once again worth more than their distribution systems Revenue,USDbillions Total U.S. airline industry revenue, 1995-2013, USD billions 0 40 30 120 160 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Low-cost carriers Network carriers 5
  • 8. Modeling future transformation: Three vectors of disruption What are the means by which the IoT will transform industries? To answer this and other questions, we developed case study macro-economic models in collaboration with Oxford Economics New York and London. Each model was designed to best represent the industry and geography being analyzed. Our models of marketplace transformation were structured in terms of three vectors of disruption from the IoT: asset marketplaces, risk management and efficiency (see Figure 5).8 The creation of asset marketplaces unlocks excess capacity of physical assets and enables instant search, use and payment for available physical assets. Radical re-pricing of credit and risk supports digitally managed risk and credit assessment, and virtual repossession and reduced moral hazard. Improved operational efficiency allows unsupervised usage of systems and devices, and reduces transaction and marketing costs. In this report, we feature modeling results for three industries: commercial real estate, SMB lending and farming. While the models are industry-specific, the conclusions are scalable. They support a cohesive and globally relevant argument about digital marketplaces and new economic value from the IoT that companies must begin to prepare for. Figure 5 The economic models were constructed around the three vectors of disruption from the IoT Creating asset marketplaces Improving efficiencyManaging risk 6 The Economy of Things
  • 9. Creating asset marketplaces In the 1960s and 1970s, digitizing the market for airline seats was a colossal undertaking, requiring enormous manual intervention and data entry to keep an up to date global record of airline seats and aircraft movements. Today, battery-powered Bluetooth beacons and smartphones can be used to instrument all kinds of new markets and assets that were previously too complex or costly to track and manage. The number of industries that are likely to be digitized and instrumented to unlock value from previously illiquid assets is enormous. Working with Oxford Economics, we modeled the commercial real estate industry to understand its transformation by the IoT. Case study: Commercial real estate The world of commercial real estate is very complex. There is a vast amount of space: 12B square feet in the U.S. alone; but only 67 percent is utilized.9 Supply is not monolithic; 90 metropolitan areas account for 5.7B square feet of space.10 Large tenants dominate the market: those occupying more than 50,000 square feet account for 36 percent of all rented space.11 Demand for commercial office space is a function of geographic, cultural, strategic and industry considerations. For example, the median square footage per employee in a U.S. law firm is four times that of a U.S. call center and 5.5 times that of office space in China.12 The commercial real estate market suffers high turnover rates, is often sub-optimal and illiquid. The IoT can help correct this market failure by instrumentation and digitization. Sensors, coupled with understanding of utilization, can create liquid marketplaces of real estate by enabling real-time discoverability, usability and payment. For example, as real-estate assets become digitally tagged, managed and shared, new services and marketplaces are being built to rent space during off-hours and offer conference rooms as classrooms. Vendors are already enabling these technologies and the number of digital marketplace services associated with them is growing rapidly. Carsharing services improve auto and fleet utilization Daimler’s moovel GmbH offers the car2go carsharing service, the Park2gether platform and the moovel smartphone app. car2go is available in 26 cities in Europe and North America with more than 800,000 users. The first carsharing system in the world without fixed rental locations, car2go is creating a new segment and expanding to commercial fleets to improve fleet capacity utilization and cost. Park2gether is another innovative solution for searching and reserving parking spaces in cities. 7
  • 10. We modeled the potential of this transformation in the U.S. commercial real estate market using 2014 office space and price estimates. Based on 50 percent behavioral adoption rates of IoT technologies, we analyzed the impact of unlocking capacity from vacancies, shadow space, hoteling and “hot-desking” (workspace sharing), as well as improved utilization hours. The expected result: a remarkable 39 percent increase in available space. Our model shows that the infusion of an additional 39 percent capacity can drive a 42 percent reduction in price per square foot. This effective additional space will not become available overnight, nor will it be evenly distributed. But even small amounts of capacity coming online can have a huge impact on pricing and market expectations. As real estate rental prices fall, the industry and consumers, both existing and induced, will see a benefit of USD 142B per annum. Producers or lessors in this case would struggle, seeing a USD 14B loss as new marketplaces emerge offering alternative, lower-cost office space options. Even as profit pools shift in this transformation, the net benefit of USD 128B per annum will mean lower costs and greater productivity for the industry (see Figure 6). As adoption of new commercial real estate services increases, consumer behavior could drive higher price sensitivity and lower margins as competition increases. Our model allows interactively exploring these effects for alternate net benefits to the industry ranging from USD 96B to USD 154B per annum. Figure 6 Real-time markets for commercial real estate can increase capacity, lower real estate prices and increase overall profitability of the industry U.S. commercial real estate IoT-enabled marketplaces Industry disruption 67 12B 67% utilization 42% real estate prices 128B net industry benefit 67 39% virtual capacity 50% IoT- adoption 8 The Economy of Things
  • 11. Managing risk As sweeping as the transformations are that will come from unlocking the capacity of physical assets, it is only one part of the industry transformation to come. Another area that promises vast new opportunities is the accurate pricing of credit and risk. The provision of credit and management of risk today in many economies is a crude business, as crude as advertising was in the era of newspapers and television. InstrumentationanddigitizationenabledbymobilephonesandtheIoTpromisearevolutioninhow creditandriskaremanaged.Combiningdeviceinstrumentation,digitalmoney,GPSlogsandsocial networks,itwillbepossibleforfinancialinstitutionstobuildmuchmoreaccuratepicturesofriskand simultaneouslyreducethecostofrepossession.WorkingwithOxfordEconomics,wemodeledthe impactoftheIoTonSMBcreditmarketsinSouthAfrica. Case study: SMB credit in South Africa The credit market for small and medium businesses (SMBs) in South Africa represents a very interesting case study. The SMB credit market in South Africa is very polarized. A sophisticated banking system serves large enterprises and formal SMBs with credit and other financial services. But informal SMBs, accounting for 51 percent of the SMB market, have little to no access to reasonably priced credit and amount to only 8 percent of all bank lending.13, 14 The market failure is two-fold: financial institutions have no credit profile to lend against and no reliable methods of contract reinforcement. The IoT can help address these market failures by providing very granular data on users and usage of assets. Financial institutions could better understand and price risks associated with informal SMBs that were previously too opaque to deal with. Remote tracking and virtual disabling of assets and devices could help improve borrower behavior and reduce loan delinquency. Digital verification reduces lending risk Bancoomeva is a financial organization that is part of the Coomeva Group with a long history of issuing credit to the unbanked population. Bancoomeva is primarily a personal banking company with 90 locations in 40 cities in Colombia and a customer base of 300,000. Using digital ID verification, the bank’s mobile loan sellers are now armed with qualifying data on credit history and loan behavior that decreases risk, and increases closing ratios and customer access to credit. 9
  • 12. Informed by the role information opacity plays in the informal credit market in South Africa, we constructed scenarios where IoT technologies reasonably allow for capture of up to 50 percent of the informal SMB credit market.15 By accessing 50 percent of informal SMBs, the quantity of credit supplied could increase by USD 10B in 2014 dollars. This is equivalent to a 9 percent increase in total corporate lending. The combined effect of virtual enforcement reducing the cost of lending could provide up to 1 percentage point reduction in interest rates (see Figure 7). To a washerwoman choosing between buying a washing machine on credit and four hours of hard laundry labor a day; access to reasonably priced credit represents a path to prosperity. Overtime,theexpansionofcredithasenormouspotentialtogrowthebroadereconomy.Usingthe OxfordEconomicsglobaleconomymodelweestimatedthatby2020,eveninisolation,thisinfusion ofcredittotheinformalSMBsectorcouldresultina0.8percentgrowthinSouthAfricanGDP. Figure 7 By turning the usage history of devices into credit-rating data, the IoT can transform credit and risk pricing in South Africa South African lending market IoT-enabled pricing Industry disruption 237B 8% informal SMBs 1% interest rates growth in GDP 10B credit infusion .8% 50% IoT-adoption 0.8% 10 The Economy of Things
  • 13. Improving efficiency through insights Finally, there are whole sectors of the economy where information technology is yet to make a significant impact. In these sectors, not only is there the possibility to create new markets and better manage risk, but the opportunity is highest to create entirely new value. Historically, industries that are not technology-intensive have represented 49 percent of the US economy.16 The IoT will bring the benefits of the information revolution to these industries. Working with Oxford Economics, we modeled the sector of the economy with the lowest IT intensity: farming, where IT accounts for just 1 percent of all capital spending.17 Case study: The frontiers of farming Agriculture is a driving force of the economy, but it remains a challenging business. For all the scientific progress that has been made, much remains to be understood. Crop yields are the result of complex biochemical and physical interactions of land, seed and weather over a growing season and are subject to uncertain variation. Within the space of just two years, U.S. average corn-for-grain yield varied 39 percent from 123 bushels per acre during the drought of 2012 to a record 171 bushels per acre in 2014.18 As a bumper sticker says, “Farming is legalized gambling.” The challenge is to know what to do where and when to do it. The IoT is at the center of a digital transformation in agriculture that addresses this challenge. Sensor technologies are enabling the coupling of real-time data collection with accurate position information to better correlate production decisions and farm yields with environmental factors.19 Uniform field management is being replaced by intelligent variable-rate, site-specific treatments, thanks to an array of IoT technologies, including field sensors for detailed monitoring, instrumented farm equipment for optimized planting and spraying, and drones for large-scale surveillance. These technologies could enable more intensive farming of land and better-integrated farm management practices that will bolster productivity through efficiency. Integrated IoT platform increases farm productivity OnFarm, founded in California, one of the richest agricultural regions in the world, integrates field and cloud data from multiple partners into a single cloud-based farm information system. OnFarm’s platform aggregates and analyzes real-time data – from soil moisture data to weather data to image data on crop health – for better farm management. Farmers gain insights through an intelligent dashboard to make more informed decisions that improve farm productivity and profitability. 11
  • 14. The relative abundance of arable land in the U.S. has lent itself to maximizing scalable efficiency of capital equipment rather than the output of land. While studies indicate that North America leads in agricultural output per worker,20 Northwest Europe’s land productivity is 2.25 times greater per hectare than the U.S. and Asian land productivity is 1.72 times greater.21 Informed by the potential of digital agriculture to achieve the benefit of the world’s best labor and land management practices, we examined the economic value from the U.S. realizing the highest land productivity of Northwest Europe over a time horizon of 5 years. By increasing land productivity to the same level as Northwest Europe, the U.S could achieve a 2 percent increase in real GDP from an increase in agricultural gross value added (GVA) of 125 percent.22 This would also result in a 6 percent drop in food prices (see Figure 8).23 According to the FAO, to feed the estimated 8.5 billion world population in the year 2025, current world food production will have to more than double.24 Instrumenting and digitizing every step in the agriculture process could yield significant return for farmers and their ecosystem partners to meet the rising need. Figure 8 By instrumenting and digitizing the agriculture process, the IoT can improve productivity in farming Productivity per hectare 6% food prices 2% real GDP 1.72x 2.25x 2.25x In 5 years Northwest Europe Asia U.S. U.S. agriculture IoT-enabled agriculture Industry disruption 12 The Economy of Things
  • 15. How to prepare for digital transformation Warren Buffet famously remarked that if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge financial favor by shooting down the Wright brothers before they could fly the first airplane.25 His statement seems to be an accurate (if bleak) assessment of the airline business: the U.S. airline industry has not, collectively, made a profit since 1978. As other industries start to go through similar cycles of digital transformation enabled by the IoT, we can help prepare companies for this transformation. Important actions include: Evaluate opportunities for new digital marketplaces From airlines to taxicabs, hotels and office cubicles, traditional measures of capacity have not been well understood. Our case studies show that capacity utilization of fixed assets is much lower than was believed prior to instrumentation and the ultimate potential is even higher. As the IoT instruments everything around us and unleashes significant new capacity, new marketplaces will emerge everywhere. As these new marketplaces evolve, it will become apparent that it’s not just about asset utilization: it’s about whole new business models. Higher asset utilization rates will lead to price wars from excess capacity. Online marketplaces will become more valuable and powerful than big market participants. Existing market participants will restructure to take out cost. As direct costs come under control and asset utilization becomes optimized, market participants will turn their attention to slashing distribution costs and building direct client relationships, making the market power of intermediaries ephemeral. 13
  • 16. Recommendations: Electronics executives must take into account that the digitization of physical assets will impact not just industry players, but also the way products and services are experienced. Companies should begin to use IoT instrumentation to obtain a better understanding of asset utilization and identify their roles in digital marketplaces that could evolve with respect to under-utilized assets. Electronics companies will need to lead the way – not just participate – in the Economy of Things, by connecting devices with back-end systems to support new marketplaces. Analyze IoT data and act on the insights Different industries and economies will experience a mix of different effects from the IoT, as our case studies demonstrate. The IoT will create growth, but profit pools will not be preserved. Nor will the distribution of benefits be even. But, in so transforming the physical world around us, the Economy of Things will unleash unprecedented opportunities for the global economy. Industry growth and transformation are not the same as profitability. The airline industry is an order of magnitude larger today than in 1978. Massive growth in air travel has created enormous value for hotels, tourism, airports and aircraft manufacturers, if not for the airlines themselves. Though some marketplace participants will struggle like this, at a macroeconomic level we are all winners in the transformation of industries by the IoT. Recommendations: The IoT is no longer just about instrumenting devices, it is about using insights from devices. Electronics executives must understand that IoT data generated from devices has potential for insights across the value chain. The winners in this transformation 14 The Economy of Things
  • 17. will use IoT data to obtain deep, personal insights and make real-time decisions, integrating real-time data and insights directly into business operations. In the process, companies must redefine how they control that data and use it to securely deliver value across the system while maintaining privacy. Begin the journey for collaborative value The cycle time for change is compressing. Though it is early, the rate of these industry transformations is getting much faster. What took from 1960 to 2010 in the airline industry will probably be happen in other industries in less than a decade. Today, the ability to create fully distributed online marketplaces that can operate securely without transaction fees will further accelerate this transformation. Where consumers lead, enterprises will follow. Consumers have been much faster to embrace online marketplaces, using aggregators and jumping on new apps and services to take advantage of good deals. Consumers consistently have embraced these opportunities before enterprises, so whatever consumer marketplace services exist today, expect to see enterprises adopting them tomorrow. Recommendations: Companies need to seize the opportunities from IoT industry disruption to their advantage. A first step is to start with projects that promise clear ROI – implementing asset optimization, and designing products and services to take advantage of intelligent systems. Leaders in this transformation will study usage patterns, refine their approaches and optimize their processes. 15
  • 18. How can you profit from the Economy of Things? Companies across industries must grasp the scale of IoT transformation that will occur over the next decade and get ready for its impact. These questions identify useful steps that executives across industries can take: • What is your plan to manage products with IoT instrumentation and real-time insights? • How will your IoT devices generate new value through improved asset utilization, risk management and efficiency? • In what ways can your organization analyze IoT data and act on the resulting insights to monetize physical assets before the rest of the industry catches up? • How will you define your role(s) in new marketplaces that emerge in the new Economy of Things? Explore our model assets The model assets can be downloaded from the study landing page, ibm.com/business/value/ economyofthings. They are interactive, allowing the user to explore alternate effects by varying the inputs to the models. 16 The Economy of Things
  • 19. About the authors Veena Pureswaran is the Global Electronics Industry Leader in the IBM Institute for Business Value. She has held leadership positions in Electronics product development, strategy and management. In her current role, she is responsible for leading thought leadership research for the Electronics industry. She has managed global IBV research studies on technology strategy and economic impact of 3D printing and the Internet of Things, and has presented IBV research findings in major industry conferences in Asia, Europe and North America. Veena can be reached at vpures@us.ibm.com Dr. Robin Lougee is the Global Research Industry Lead for the Consumer Product and Agriculture Industries at IBM Research. She is the recipient of the 2014 INFORMS Impact Award for her pioneering work in open-source for operations research, and has applied computational mathematics and data sciences to deliver innovations to IBM and its clients since 1994. Robin can be reached at rlougee@us.ibm.com Executive sponsor Bruce Anderson is IBM General Manager, Global Electronics Industry and Member of the IBM Industry Academy. He is responsible for IBM’s Electronics Industry business worldwide, including consumer electronics, medical devices, semiconductor, and office, industrial and network equipment segments. Bruce has a deep understanding of the Electronics industry, and consults extensively with senior executives to help them optimize business models, organizations, and operations. He has over 25 years of experience helping companies gain competitive advantage through innovative strategies and transformation. Bruce previously led the Industrial Sector supply chain practice as a Partner and Vice President for IBM Global Business Services. Bruce can be reached at baanders@us.ibm.com Related publications Pureswaran, Veena. “Device democracy: Saving the future of the Internet of Things.” IBM Institute for Business Value. September 2014. www.ibm.biz/ devicedemocracy Pureswaran, Veena, Sanjay Panikkar and Nair, Sumabala. “Empowering the edge: Practical insights on a decentralized Internet of Things.” IBM Institute for Business Value. March 2015. www.ibm.biz/ empoweringedge 17
  • 20. For more information To learn more about this IBM Institute for Business Value study, please contact us at iibv@us.ibm.com. Follow @ IBMIBV on Twitter, and for a full catalog of our research or to subscribe to our monthly newsletter, visit: ibm.com/iibv Access IBM Institute for Business Value executive reports on your phone or tablet by downloading the free “IBM IBV” app for iOS or Android from your app store. The right partner for a changing world At IBM, we collaborate with our clients, bringing together business insight, advanced research and technology to give them a distinct advantage in today’s rapidly changing environment. IBM Institute for Business Value IBM Global Business Services, through the IBM Institute for Business Value, develops fact-based strategic insights for senior executives around critical public and private sector issues. This executive report is based on an in-depth study by the Institute’s research team. It is part of an ongoing commitment by IBM Global Business Services to provide analysis and viewpoints that help companies realize business value. Acknowledgments The authors would like to recognize the contributions of: Oxford Economics for their collaboration on this study, as well as Paul Brody, former Vice President and North American Leader for the IBM Mobile and Internet of Things practice. We also thank IBM SMEs across the various industries modeled for their reviews and feedback, as well as Angela Finley and Joni McDonald of the IBM Institute for Business Value for helping to produce this executive report. 18 The Economy of Things
  • 21. Notes and sources 1 Kreis, Steven. “The printing press.” http://historyguide.org/intellect/press.html 2 “Sabre: The first online reservation system.” http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/ ibm100/us/en/icons/sabre/. Accessed on March 01, 2015 3 Our history, Sabre: http://www.sabre.com/index.php/about/our-history. Accessed on March 1, 2015 4 Airline deregulation: The concise encyclopedia of economics. http://www.econlib.org/ library/Enc/AirlineDeregulation.html. Accessed on March 01, 2015 5 Bureau of Transportation Statistics, IBM Institute for Business Value analysis 6 International Air Transport Association, IBM Institute for Business Value analysis 7 Phillips, Don. “AMR to spin off its stake in Sabre.” Washington Post. http://www.wash- ingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-12/15/073r-121599-idx.html. Accessed on March 01, 2015 8 Brody, Paul and Veena Pureswaran. “Device democracy: Saving the future of the Internet of Things.” IBM Institute for Business Value. September 2014. www.ibm.biz/devicede- mocracy 9 Miller, N. (2014). “Workplace Trends in Office Space: Implications for Future Office Demand.” http://www.normmiller.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Estimating_Office_ Space_Requirements-Feb-17-2014.pdf 10 ibid. 19
  • 22. 11 Miller, N (2014) and Miller, N (2012). “Estimating Office Space per Worker.” https://www. ccimef.org/pdf/2012-6.Estimating-Office-Space-per-Worker.5-1-12.pdf 12 ibid. 13 IMF, IFS data via Haver. Oxford Economics analysis. 14 Berg, G. and M. Fuchs. “Bank Financing of SMES in Five Sub-Saharan African Countries: The role of competition, innovation and the government.” The World Bank, 2013. 15 “Literature Review on Small and Medium Enterprises’ Access to Credit and Support in South Africa” National Credit Regulator 2011. Relating to FinScope Small Business Sur- vey, South Africa 2010. Oxford Economics and IBM Institute for Business Value analysis. 16 Jorgenson, Dale W., Harvard University, Mun Ho, Harvard University and Jon Samuels, Bureau of Economic Analysis. “Long term estimates of U.S. productivity and growth.” http://www.worldklems.net/conferences/worldklems2014/worldklems2014_Ho.pdf 17 ibid. 18 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_ Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.asp; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis. 19 IBM Institute for Business Value analysis. http://www.gps.gov/applications/agriculture/ 20 The Economy of Things
  • 23. 20 Fuglie, Keith and Sun Lin Wang (2012) New Evidence Points to Robust But Uneven Pro- ductivity Growth in Global Agriculture. http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-sep- tember/global-agriculture.aspx#.VXOpPGMkHp8 21 Fuglie, Wang and Ball (2012). http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-september/ global-agriculture.aspx#.VRsJMCm7OHw. Data from the FAO of the United Nations. 22 United States Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service. http:/www.ers. usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx; Oxford Economics analysis. 23 FAO food price index. http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/; Ox- ford Economics analysis. 24 FAO corporate document repository. Feeding the world: The search for food security. http://www.fao.org/docrep/U8480E/U8480E0a.htm 25 Lawson, Dominic, Robert Peston and Grant Ringshaw. “Warren Buffett: My elephant gun is loaded.” The Telegraph. September 2, 2002. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/per- sonalfinance/investing/shares/2774088/Warren-Buffett-My-elephant-gun-is-loaded.html © Copyright IBM Corporation 2015 Route 100, Somers, NY 10589 Produced in the United States of America, June 2015 IBM, the IBM logo and ibm.com are trademarks of International Business Machines Corp., registered in many jurisdictions worldwide. Other product and service names might be trademarks of IBM or other companies. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the Web at “Copyright and trademark information” at www.ibm.com/legal/ copytrade.shtml. This document is current as of the initial date of publication and may be changed by IBM at any time. Not all offerings are available in every country in which IBM operates. The information in this document is provided “as is” without any warranty, express or implied, including without any warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and any warranty or condition of non-infringement. IBM products are warranted according to the terms and conditions of the agreements under which they are provided. This report is intended for general guidance only. It is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional judgment. IBM shall not be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any organization or person who relies on this publication. The data used in this report may be derived from third-party sources and IBM does not independently verify, validate or audit such data. The results from the use of such data are provided on an “as is” basis and IBM makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. GBE03678 -USEN-03 Please Recycle 21