1. Updated: April 7, 2023

2. 20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quarter, Q4:1997– Q1:2023
(Recessions Are Highlighted with Gray Shading)
Historical Average = 75.1%
Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.

3. Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.
75.6%
33.9%
66.0%
74.2%
87.6%
90.1%
87.5%
86.8%
88.8%
82.6%
75.6%
68.9%
74.7%
2020:1 2020:2 2020:3 2020:4 2021:1 2021:2 2021:3 2021:4 2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quarter
(First Quarter 2020 – First Quarter 2023)

4. Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Note: Expected growth rates are annual averages.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2021:1 2021:2 2021:3 2021:4 2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1
Expected Manufacturing Growth Over Next 12 Months
(First Quarter 2021 – First Quarter 2023)
Sales Production Exports Capital Investments Full-Time Employment
Expected Growth Over Next 12 Months
Sales ↑ 2.7%
Production ↑ 2.6%
Exports ↑ 0.5%
Capital Investments ↑ 1.8%
Full-Time Employment ↑ 1.6%

5. Note: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100%.
5.1%
6.8%
16.2%
19.7%
21.4%
41.0%
45.9%
50.7%
51.6%
55.8%
60.1%
74.9%
Other
Challenges with access to capital or other forms of financing
Strengthened U.S. dollar relative to other currencies
Trade uncertainties
Weaker global growth and slower export sales
Transportation and logistics costs
Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations)
Weaker domestic economy and sales for our products to U.S. customers
Rising health care/insurance costs
Supply chain challenges
Increased raw material costs
Attracting and retaining a quality workforce
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2023
Primary Business Challenges

6. 11.9%
9.6%
11.1%
28.8%
22.1%
6.4%
10.2%
They have already
improved and are back to
normal (prior to the current
quarter)
The first quarter of 2023
(the current quarter)
The second quarter of 2023 The second half of 2023 Sometime in 2024 At some later date Uncertain
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2023
When Firms Expect Supply Chain Challenges to Abate
Suppy Chain Disruptions Will Abate:
Already Have or in Q1:2023: 21.5%
By the End of 2023: 61.3%
By the End of 2024: 83.4%

7. Yes,
49.4%
No,
14.5%
Uncertain,
36.1%
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2023
“Do you think the U.S. will experience a recession in 2023?”

8. Yes,
59.13%
No,
32.17%
Uncertain,
8.70%
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2023
“Does the inability to find enough workers impact your decision to make investment plans or to expand?”
Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey

9. Source: Institute for Supply Management
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar
ISM® Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index®
(January 2022 – March 2023)
Purchasing Managers' Index New Orders Production Employment Exports

10. Source: Federal Reserve Board
0.2%
-0.8%
-2.1%
1.3%
0.1%
0.3%
-1.3%
-1.6%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.3%
-2.6%
2.1%
0.2%
Oct-22 Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb
Monthly Percentage Changes in Manufacturing Production
(October 2022 – February 2023)
Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

11. Source: Federal Reserve Board
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Manufacturing Production and Capacity Utilization
(January 2019 to February 2023)
Manufacturing Production Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Manufacturing
Production (SIC)
(2017=100)
Manufacturing
Capacity
Utilization (SIC)

12. $420
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb
New Manufactured Goods Orders and Shipments
(January 2022 – February 2023, in Billions of Dollars)
Orders Orders Excluding Transportation Shipments Shipments Excluding Transportation
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Core Capital Goods New Orders and Shipments
(January 2010 – February 2023, in Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
New Orders Shipments
Note: “Core capital goods” are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

13. $65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
$115
$120
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145
Manufacturing Construction Spending, January 2015 – February 2023
(Value of Private Construction Put in Place, in Billions of Dollars)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14. Source: S&P Global
Note: Top 10 export markets based on 2022 U.S.-manufactured goods export trade data from the U.S. Commerce Department
48.6
51.0
50.0
44.7
49.2
47.9
46.4
47.0
47.6
47.0
Canada Mexico China Germany Japan United Kingdom Netherlands Brazil South Korea Switzerland
S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Indices® for the
Top 10 Export Markets
(March 2023)
Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.6
Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI: 50.7
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 47.3
U.S. Manufacturing PMI (J.P. Morgan): 49.2

15. Source: Federal Reserve Board
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Against Broad Index of
Currencies, Goods and Services, 2014–2023
(Currency Units per U.S. Dollar, January 2006=100)
The U.S. dollar has declined 7.1% since
peaking on October 19, 2022.

16. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
364
904
414
254
364 370
568
352 350
324
290
239
472
326
236
Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar
Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment
(January 2022 – March 2023, in Thousands of Workers)

17. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
Monthly Unemployment Rate,
January 2005 – March 2023

18. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
Labor Force Participation Rate,
January 2000 – March 2023

19. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
33
37
62
52
21
30
41
31
26
37
14
6
11
-1 -1
Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar
Monthly Change in Manufacturing Employment
(January 2022 – March 2023, in Thousands of Workers)

20. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11.4
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.8
11.9
12.0
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.9
13.0
13.1
Manufacturing Employment, January 2010 – March 2023
(in Millions of Workers)

21. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
Manufacturing Job Openings, Hires and Separations
(January 2021 – February 2023, in Thousands of Workers)
Job Openings Hires Separations

22. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Nonfarm and Manufacturing Labor Market Quits,
January 2010 – February 2023
Manufacturing (on Left Axis) Nonfarm Businesses (on Right Axis)
Nonfarm Businesses
(in Millions)
Manufacturing
(in Thousands)

23. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
5
10
15
20
25
Total Unemployed and Nonfarm Job Openings, January 2010 – February 2023
(in Millions of Workers, Seasonally Adjusted)
Job Openings Total Unemployed

24. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
Manufacturing Average Hourly Earnings, Production and Nonsupervisory Workers,
January 2000 – March 2023, Year-Over-Year Percentage Growth by Month

25. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.0%
1.4%
1.8%
2.2%
2.6%
3.0%
3.4%
3.8%
4.2%
4.6%
5.0%
5.4%
5.8%
6.2%
6.6%
7.0%
7.4%
Year-Over-Year Percentage Changes in the PCE Deflator
(January 2021 – February 2023)
Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator PCE Deflator, Excluding Food and Energy

26. 1.0%
1.8%
2.6%
3.4%
4.2%
5.0%
5.8%
6.6%
7.4%
8.2%
9.0%
9.8%
10.6%
11.4%
12.2%
Year-Over-Year Percentage Changes in Producer Prices
(Final Demand, January 2021 – February 2023, Seasonally Adjusted)
Final Demand Final Demand Less Food, Energy and Trade Services
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Year-Over-Year Change in Consumer Prices
(January 2021 – February 2023, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982–1984=100)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI, Excluding Food and Energy

28. Economic Outlook

29. 6.3%
6.7%
2.3%
6.9%
-1.6%
-0.6%
3.2%
2.6%
2.0%
0.5% 0.5%
1.0%
2021:I II III IV 2022:I II III IV 2023:I II III IV
Percentage Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
(Chained 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate of Growth)
Real GDP Forecast:
↑ 5.7% (2021)
↑ 2.1% (2022)
↑ 1.5% (2023)
↑ 2.0% (2024)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations using Moody’s Analytics simulation model

30. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-1.20%
-0.11%
0.09%
0.29%
0.37%
0.42%
0.52%
0.72%
1.47%
Residential Fixed Investment
Durable Goods Consumption
Nondurable Goods Consumption
State and Local Government Spending
Federal Government Spending
Net Exports
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Service-Sector Consumer Spending
Change in Private Inventories
Contributions to Percentage Change in
Fourth Quarter 2022 Real GDP Growth
Fourth Quarter 2022
Real GDP Growth
↑ 2.6%

31. Downside Risks
Ongoing impacts from the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, with sharply higher interest rates
Lingering pricing and cost pressures, including wage growth
Increasing inventory levels
Widespread recessionary worries, potentially dampening activity
Financial risks, with the failure of some regional banks, including pullbacks in credit
Upside Risks
Labor market continuing to be very tight
Some continued resilience in consumer and business spending despite recession worries
Tailwinds from infrastructure/semiconductors spending and increased investments in U.S.
Rebounding global growth in some markets, specifically China

32. Source: Federal Reserve Board; Moody’s Analytics Economic Model, February 2023 Baseline
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Actual and Predicted Manufacturing Production Growth
(NAICS, 2017=100)
Actual Manufacturing Production Predicted Manufacturing Production
Manufacturing Production
↑ 5.9% (2021)
↑ 3.5% (2022)
↓ 1.0% (2023)
↑ 2.0% (2024)