The document discusses the rise in power and influence of Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) over the past ten years due to shifts in the drug market. It notes that over 45,000 murders have resulted from internal cartel disputes and competition for drug routes into the US and local markets. While DTOs have at times controlled some Mexican cities, the government lacks a consistent strategy due to bureaucratic infighting and lack of capacity. The analysis provides an overview of the situation using a market explanation and forecasts the scenario if current policy does not change.

1. The Dimension of Mexican Organized Crime September2011

3. The lack of a national security and crime policy, has been a fertile ground for corruption in law enforcement agencies, government and society.

4. Internal disputes among the Cartels, the competition for entry points into the U.S. and increased revenues from local markets (drugs, prostitution, extortion and black market activities), have resulted in over 45,000 murders that include police, military, prosecutors, elected officials and politicians as well as innocent civilians.

5. At times urban and large cities, in the country have been controlled for up to two days by the DTO’s.

6. The Mexican government does not have a consistent strategy due to a lack of institutional capacity and bureaucratic infighting, the result is an incoherent public policy and failed attempts to deal with the problem.

8. Innventory

9. Price Efficiency

10. Distribution

11. Money Laundering$4,000 USD $8,000 USD $6,500 USD 1 kg. Cocaine in Atlanta wholesale price without dilutions $22,000 USD 1Kg. Cocaine in Meta Guaviare $900 USD 1 kg. Cocaine in Galapagos $3,500 USD 1 kg. Cocaine in Michoacán $7,500 USD 1 kg. Cocaine in Laredo $15,500 USD 1 USD = .90 USD In Mexico Casas de Cambio Casinos Real State Construction Escrow accounts $18,000 USD 1 kg. Cocaine in MIlan wholesale price without dilutions $33,500 USD Mexican DTO’s have the biggest profit share of the market, and are able to determine prices worldwide

12. Why did Mexicans become the no 1 player in the drug market? Shifts in the supply structure of cocaine, the increased demand of meth and the conflict in Afghanistan, gave the Mexican DTO’s a unique position in the market

13. The rise of global influence

14. “social unrest”, by traffickers Demonstrations against military presence in Monterrey, a very organized civil society……. 20% of the population has a neighbor that is involved in drug trafficking, poll conducted by Gabinete de ComunicaciónEstratégica (Nov. 08)

15. Border fragility is a serious threat

17. Sophisticated telecoms

18. More Intelligence

19. Flexible organizationMexican budget to fight crime $3 billion USD Merida Initiative $400 million USD

20. A violent environment Violence erupted from a boardroom dispute, between shareholders, and shifts in market trends. The new composition of groups is a result of disagreements over routes, production and local markets.

21. Implications for THE Mexican PRIVATE SECTOR

22. Implications for the Mexican economy / politics

24. However violence is tolerated by DTO’s if it increases revenue or protects market share and routes.

26. DTO’s are “outsourcing” violence to local criminals and specialized groups to isolate the “business unit” from the “protection unit”.

27. “Going after the hitman” will not reduce the size or revenue of DTO’s.