This short report looks at the rise of the
BRIC economies, their growing importance
to the global economy and the trends that
will shape their performance. It draws
upon the International Business Report
(IBR) – a quarterly survey of business
leaders, covering 11,500 businesses in
40 economies on an annual basis – as
well as forecast data from leading
global economists.
Le monde en 2050 : les perspectives de PwC (2013)PwC France
http://pwc.to/V9rjZn
Selon le dernier rapport World in 2050 publié par PwC, la crise financière a accéléré le déplacement du centre de gravité de l’économie mondiale. La Chine, les États-Unis et l’Inde devraient conforter leur suprématie d’ici à 2050, mais les pays émergents n’en restent pas moins confrontés à d’immenses défis pour inscrire dans la durée leur forte croissance récente. Selon PwC, d’ici 2050, l’Indonésie, le Nigeria et le Vietnam pourraient connaître une progression spectaculaire ; le Brésil pourrait supplanter le Japon à la 4e place, et la Turquie pourrait s’imposer comme l’une des premières économies d’Europe.
Prime Minister\'s Office wanted a \'pamphlet\' to promote the need for EU reform to encourage growth. I developed the content, format and design including how to put across the message in arrestingly simple infographics.
Le monde en 2050 : les perspectives de PwC (2013)PwC France
http://pwc.to/V9rjZn
Selon le dernier rapport World in 2050 publié par PwC, la crise financière a accéléré le déplacement du centre de gravité de l’économie mondiale. La Chine, les États-Unis et l’Inde devraient conforter leur suprématie d’ici à 2050, mais les pays émergents n’en restent pas moins confrontés à d’immenses défis pour inscrire dans la durée leur forte croissance récente. Selon PwC, d’ici 2050, l’Indonésie, le Nigeria et le Vietnam pourraient connaître une progression spectaculaire ; le Brésil pourrait supplanter le Japon à la 4e place, et la Turquie pourrait s’imposer comme l’une des premières économies d’Europe.
Prime Minister\'s Office wanted a \'pamphlet\' to promote the need for EU reform to encourage growth. I developed the content, format and design including how to put across the message in arrestingly simple infographics.
Презентация к докладу министра по делам экономической интеграции РК Жанар Айтжановой на казахстанско-американском форуме в Нью-Йорке 7 декабря 2011 года
* Un rápido crecimiento económico no implica necesariamente una oportunidad de negocio
* México tiene ventajas clave sobre los BRIC´s
* Los BRICs y México tienen en común 2 situaciones: corrupción y fragilidad institucional
* Los hogares mexicanos tienen mayor poder adquisitivo
* La economía se vuelve cada vez más sofisticada
* El ambiente para hacer negocios en México es relativamente mejor
* Un mercado con gran densidad de población y un ingreso relativamente mayor es más atractivo que un país con ingresos relativamente menores, incluso si la población de éste crece rápidamente
Brazil and the talent war (notes included)Rob Brouwer
Talent is the single biggest challenge for companies to grow in Brazil. The economic boom + the education gap have caused a Talent War in Brazil. More than 75% of the companies are facing challenges to attract and retain people, employee turnover is one of the highest in the world and a salary bubble is about to burst. This presentation shows how companies need to change their talent acquisition strategies to be able to compete in the overheated market place, by applying strategic marketing concepts to HR.
The world’s high net worth individuals (HNWIs) regained ground despite weakness in the world economy, according to the 14th annual World Wealth Report from Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management and Capgemini. The world’s population of HNWIs returned to 10 million in 2009 and HNWI financial wealth increased 18.9% to $39 trillion. Ultra-HNWIs increased their wealth by 21.5% in 2009.
The World Wealth Report covers 71 countries in the market-sizing model, accounting for more than 98% of global gross national income and 99% of world stock market capitalization. The report has built a strong and lasting reputation as the industry benchmark for HNWIs market sizing—originally at a global and regional level but increasingly at a country level.
http://www.capgemini.com/world-wealth-report
Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program.
Global Cities Initiative forum in Los Angeles, CA on March 21, 2012.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
For more information: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/global-cities.aspx
Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program.
Global Cities Initiative forum in San Diego, CA on March 22, 2012.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project between Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
Global Cities Initiative forum in Los Angeles, CA on March 21, 2012.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
For more information: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/global-cities.aspx
Презентация к докладу министра по делам экономической интеграции РК Жанар Айтжановой на казахстанско-американском форуме в Нью-Йорке 7 декабря 2011 года
* Un rápido crecimiento económico no implica necesariamente una oportunidad de negocio
* México tiene ventajas clave sobre los BRIC´s
* Los BRICs y México tienen en común 2 situaciones: corrupción y fragilidad institucional
* Los hogares mexicanos tienen mayor poder adquisitivo
* La economía se vuelve cada vez más sofisticada
* El ambiente para hacer negocios en México es relativamente mejor
* Un mercado con gran densidad de población y un ingreso relativamente mayor es más atractivo que un país con ingresos relativamente menores, incluso si la población de éste crece rápidamente
Brazil and the talent war (notes included)Rob Brouwer
Talent is the single biggest challenge for companies to grow in Brazil. The economic boom + the education gap have caused a Talent War in Brazil. More than 75% of the companies are facing challenges to attract and retain people, employee turnover is one of the highest in the world and a salary bubble is about to burst. This presentation shows how companies need to change their talent acquisition strategies to be able to compete in the overheated market place, by applying strategic marketing concepts to HR.
The world’s high net worth individuals (HNWIs) regained ground despite weakness in the world economy, according to the 14th annual World Wealth Report from Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management and Capgemini. The world’s population of HNWIs returned to 10 million in 2009 and HNWI financial wealth increased 18.9% to $39 trillion. Ultra-HNWIs increased their wealth by 21.5% in 2009.
The World Wealth Report covers 71 countries in the market-sizing model, accounting for more than 98% of global gross national income and 99% of world stock market capitalization. The report has built a strong and lasting reputation as the industry benchmark for HNWIs market sizing—originally at a global and regional level but increasingly at a country level.
http://www.capgemini.com/world-wealth-report
Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program.
Global Cities Initiative forum in Los Angeles, CA on March 21, 2012.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
For more information: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/global-cities.aspx
Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program.
Global Cities Initiative forum in San Diego, CA on March 22, 2012.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project between Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
Global Cities Initiative forum in Los Angeles, CA on March 21, 2012.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
For more information: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/global-cities.aspx
The WESP mid-2011 update highlights that the recovery of the global economy remains intact but uneven, with strong output growth in developing countries and a weaker economic performance in developed countries. At the same time, new headwinds have emerged, such as upward pressure on inflation rates due to higher energy and food prices and continued appreciation pressure on emerging market currencies.
The publication predicts weaker global growth in 2011 and 2012 as the recovery has lost momentum since the middle of 2010. World gross product is forecast to expand by 3.1 per cent in 2011 and 3.5 per cent in 2012, following estimated growth of 3.6 per cent in 2010. The report emphasizes that the outlook remains uncertain, surrounded by serious downside risks. It further indicates that, in the short run, more fiscal stimulus will be needed to reinvigorate the global recovery, but that it will need to be better coordinated with monetary policies and reoriented to provide stronger support to employment generation.
Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program.
Global Cities Initiative forum in Atlanta, GA on March 20, 2013.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
For more information: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/global-cities.aspx
The Grant Thornton emerging markets opportunity index ranks the level of opportunity for investors in 27 emerging economies across the globe. The International Business Report (IBR) 2010 results also offer some relevant insights into the health of the business populations in the emerging markets. Optimism levels amongst businesses in emerging economies have been around 60 percentage points higher than those of their counterparts in more mature economies since 2007.
Presentation by Bruce Katz, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program, at the Atlanta Regional Commission's 2012 State of the Region Breakfast
Latin America Risks And Opportunities - Jan 2012ibarraricardo
Key risks and opportunities in Latin America for 2012. This will include an overview of our global and regional views as well as our strategy for Financial Markets in Latin American & the Caribbean.
Presentation by Amy Liu, Co-Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program.
Global Cities Initiative export roundtable in Atlanta, GA on March 19, 2013.
The Global Cities Initiative is a Joint Project of Brookings and JPMorgan Chase.
For more information: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/global-cities.aspx
Produkcja prawa zwolniła, ale nadal przytłacza firmyGrant Thornton
W 2017 r. w życie weszło 27,1 tys. stron nowych aktów prawnych, czyli o 15 proc. mniej niż rok wcześniej. Na tym jednak dobre wiadomości się kończą – wynika z raportu Grant Thornton.
Stabilność prawa to jeden z warunków długotrwałego rozwoju gospodarczego. Nadmierna zmienność regulacji nie tylko utrudnia firmom działalność, naraża je na kary i grzywny, ale też zniechęca przedsiębiorców do podejmowania inwestycji. Żeby mierzyć skalę zmienności prawa, uruchomiliśmy trzy lata temu swój „Barometr otoczenia prawnego w polskiej gospodarce”, czyli projekt badawczy, który na konkretnych liczbach pokazuje, jak dużo prawa produkuje się w Polsce w danym okresie.
10 najważniejszych zmian w podatkach ostatnich dwóch latGrant Thornton
Ranking najważniejszych z punktu widzenia podatnika zmian w przepisach podatkowych, które weszły w życie przez pierwsze dwa lata obecnej kadencji rządu
Polskie firmy nie chcą rozwijać nowych produktów Grant Thornton
Firma, aby się rozwijać, musi stale wprowadzać na rynek nowe produkty i usługi. W innym wypadku zostanie wyprzedzona przez bardziej dynamiczną konkurencję.
Jak pod tym względem wypadają obecnie polskie firmy? Zapraszamy do zapoznania się z wynikami badania przeprowadzonego przez Grant Thornton wśród średnich i dużych przedsiębiorstw z 33 krajów świata
Z przyjemnością prezentujemy kolejną edycję „Purpurowego Informatora”, czyli cyklu analiz, w którym omawiamy ważne dla przedsiębiorców kwestie prawne, księgowe i kadrowe.
Tym razem tematem naszego cyklu jest Jednolity Plik Kontrolny (JPK). Co to jest? Do czego służy? Jacy podatnicy mają obowiązek przekazywania JPK? Odpowiedzi na te i inne pytania znajdą Państwo w poniższym materiale.
Zmiany w przepisach o ochronie danych osobowychGrant Thornton
W maju 2018 roku zacznie obowiązywać unijne rozporządzenie o ochronie danych osobowych. Nowe przepisy będą dotyczyć wszystkich podmiotów, które na terenie UE przetwarzają dane w sposób zautomatyzowany. Warto zapoznać się z najważniejszymi zmianami zachodzącymi w rozporządzeniu i rozpocząć przygotowania już teraz.
Rekordowe wyniki rynku Catalyst w 2016 rokuGrant Thornton
Wartość nieskarbowych instrumentów dłużnych notowanych na Catalyst osiągnęła na koniec czwartego kwartału 2016 roku 81,8 mld zł, co było najwyższym wynikiem od momentu powstania rynku Catalyst – wynika z przygotowanego przez nas raportu pod patronatem Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie.
Festiwalowe szaleństwo na studencką kieszeńGrant Thornton
Średni koszt wyjazdu na festiwal muzyczny latem 2017 r. to 1530,04 zł – wynika z naszego raportu. Spośród największych europejskich festiwali najtaniej spędzisz czas na Coulors of Ostrava. Najbardziej ceną kuszą jednak polskie imprezy, zwłaszcza Przystanek Woodstock.
Grant Thornton’s transactional teams advised on a number of high profile deals throughout Europe in 2016, driving strong outcomes through highly experienced and internationally connected professionals. Grant Thornton’s success was reflected in the number two position (by average deal value) in the ranking of the top ten M&A advisors in Europe.
Z przyjemnością prezentujemy kolejną edycję „Purpurowego Informatora”, czyli cyklu analiz, w którym omawiamy ważne dla przedsiębiorców kwestie prawne, księgowe i kadrowe. Tym razem tematem naszego cyklu jest pakiet zmian w ustawie o rachunkowości, które obowiązują od 2016 roku.
Wpływy transferowe klubów piłkarskiej Ekstraklasy osiągnęły w sezonie 2016/2017 wartość 33,5 mln EUR – wynika z Grant Thornton. To najlepszy wynik w historii.
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
Recruiting in the Digital Age: A Social Media MasterclassLuanWise
In this masterclass, presented at the Global HR Summit on 5th June 2024, Luan Wise explored the essential features of social media platforms that support talent acquisition, including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok.
At Techbox Square, in Singapore, we're not just creative web designers and developers, we're the driving force behind your brand identity. Contact us today.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
Best practices for project execution and deliveryCLIVE MINCHIN
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Presented at The Global HR Summit, 6th June 2024
In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
How to Implement a Real Estate CRM SoftwareSalesTown
To implement a CRM for real estate, set clear goals, choose a CRM with key real estate features, and customize it to your needs. Migrate your data, train your team, and use automation to save time. Monitor performance, ensure data security, and use the CRM to enhance marketing. Regularly check its effectiveness to improve your business.
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.AnnySerafinaLove
This letter, written by Kellen Harkins, Course Director at Full Sail University, commends Anny Love's exemplary performance in the Video Sharing Platforms class. It highlights her dedication, willingness to challenge herself, and exceptional skills in production, editing, and marketing across various video platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram.
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
Authentically Social by Corey Perlman - EO Puerto Rico
The BRICs: propping up the global economy
1. GRANT THORNTON INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS REPORT 2012
The BRICs: propping up the global
economy
This short report looks at the rise of the
BRIC economies, their growing importance
to the global economy and the trends that
will shape their performance. It draws
upon the International Business Report
(IBR) – a quarterly survey of business
leaders, covering 11,500 businesses in
40 economies on an annual basis – as
well as forecast data from leading
global economists.
2. No longer emerging?
The collective strength of the BRIC economies Of course, when measured on a per capita basis,
(Brazil, Russia, India and China) is of ever the GDP of these economies still lags behind that of
increasing importance to the strength of the global the G7. However, on an absolute basis, they are
economy. Whilst mature economies across the catching up fast. The BRICs are forecast to account
globe grapple with towering budget deficits, for 37% of global growth in the period 2011-16,
anaemic growth and rising unemployment, the with China alone contributing 22%. This will
BRICs are expanding rapidly, lifting people out of increase the BRIC share of global output from 19%
poverty and driving the global economy. The to 23%. Meanwhile, the proportion of global
manner in which leaders in the troubled eurozone output produced by the traditional powerhouses in
recently pleaded with these markets for funds to the G7 economies will fall from 48% to 44% over
help alleviate the sovereign debt crisis marks yet the same period. 2
another definitive step in the transition of economic
power from ‘west’ to ‘east’.
FIGURE 1: BRICS BUILDING MOMENTUM
Indeed, at a recent high-growth markets GDP PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
conference run by the The Economist, the man
who first coined the BRICs acronym around a
decade ago, Jim O’Neill, now chairman of
2.3 2.1
Goldman Sachs Asset Management, described as
Canada
“idiotic and insulting” the use of emerging markets
in relation to the BRICs. He argues that these
economies are “increasingly the driver of
everything positive in the world economy” and that
0.8 1.5
they should be grouped alongside Indonesia, United
Mexico, South Korea and Turkey as “growth Kingdom
markets”.1 1.7 2.0
United States 1.6 1.3
eurozone
3.0 4.4
Brazil
2011 – mature economies
2011 – BRIC economies
1
Source: GTUK International Markets 2012-16
http://www.grant-thornton.co.uk/thinking/emergingmarkets/
2
Source: IMF 2011 SOURCE: ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT 2011
2 The BRICs: propping up the global economy
3. FIGURE 2: BRICS TAKING A LARGER SLICE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL OUTPUT
Other: 33% BRIC: 19%
2011
G7: 48%
4.0 4.0
Russia
Other: 33% BRIC: 23%
2016
G7: 44%
0.2 1.5
Japan
9.8 8.0
China
7.6 8.3
India
SOURCE: IMF 2011
The BRICs: propping up the global economy 3
4. Business confidence
Against this backdrop of rapid economic growth,
business leaders in the BRIC economies remain
more optimistic about the outlook for their
respective economies compared with peers in
mature markets. The latest IBR quarterly results
show net 34% of business leaders indicating
optimism over pessimism for the next
12 months, compared with -12% in the G7.
Business leaders in mature markets remained
cautiously optimistic about their economies up
until Q2 of this year. However, by Q3 the
slowdown in the United States economy, the fallout
from the tsunami in Japan and the sovereign debt
crisis in the eurozone saw optimism slide. Whilst
BRIC business confidence ticked downwards in FIGURE 3: BRICS BUOYANT
both Q2 and Q3, it recovered again in Q4 to stand NET PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES INDICATING OPTIMISM LESS THOSE INDICATING PESSIMISM
fully 46 percentage points higher than in the G7. 60
Clearly there are a number of issues facing the 50
BRIC economies. In Russia, oil and gas make up 40
30
two-thirds of exports and the price of oil will need
20
to be US$120 a barrel if the budget is to balance. 10
In Brazil, the strong real has hurt exporters and 0
growth was flat in the third quarter of 2011. In -10
-20
China housing sales, construction and exports have
Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011
all slowed significantly in recent months. Whilst in BRIC 54 57 44 25 34
India corruption, inflation and an unwillingness G7 11 27 27 -8 -12
to let foreign investment in are all threats to Global 23 34 31 3 0
growth prospects. SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
Further, these markets are now ever more
dependent on the global economy with India
FIGURE 4: WORRIED ABOUT ANOTHER RECESSION?
recently warning that growth was beginning to PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES WORRIED THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL GO BACK INTO RECESSION
falter, and top Chinese policymakers describing the India 96
outlook as “extremely grim and complicated.”3 As
a result, three-quarters of BRIC business leaders
are concerned that the global economy will go back Russia 87
into recession over the next 12 months. Business
leaders in India are the most concerned (96%),
Brazil 76
followed by Russia (87%) and Brazil (76%) with
China the least concerned (66%).
BRICs 75
China 66
SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
3
Source: Financial Times “India and China voice growth fears” 16/12/2011
4 The BRICs: propping up the global economy
5. “Economies such as China are catching up fast.
With growth rates in mature markets not
expected to reach pre-recession levels anytime
soon, a rebalancing of global economic power
is well underway.”
XU HUA
GRANT THORNTON CHINA
Operations FIGURE 5: BRIC BUSINESS BOOMING
NET PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES EXPECTING AN INCREASE LESS THOSE EXPECTING A DECREASE
Business confidence in the BRIC economies
extends to their expectations for boosting business 80
performance over the next 12 months. Net 72% of 70
60
BRIC businesses leaders expect revenues to rise in
50
2012, compared with 37% in the G7 and 43% 40
globally. Similarly, 58% of those in the BRICs 30
expect to see their profits rise, well above the G7 20
10
(26%) and global average (31%). Meanwhile,
0
expectations for exports in the BRICs stand at 24%, 72 37 43 58 26 31 24 17 18
slightly above the G7 (17%).
Revenue Profitability Exports
Businesses in India are the most bullish in terms
of increasing revenues in 2012; net 82% expect to BRIC G7 Global
see an increase, ahead of Brazil (78%), China (74%) SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
and Russia (43%). In terms of profitability, China
leads the way with net 61% expecting to see a rise
in 2012, slightly ahead of Brazil (60%), India (57%)
and Russia (42%). Meanwhile export prospects are
far higher in India (36%) and China (28%) than in
Brazil (16%) and Russia (6%).
The BRICs: propping up the global economy 5
6. “Finding the right workers is a serious issue for
businesses amid near record low unemployment.
Businesses urgently require more skilled workers
to fuel growth.”
MADELEINE BLANKENSTEIN
GRANT THORNTON BRAZIL
Employment FIGURE 6: HIRING PLANS STRONG, BUT WHERE ARE THE SKILLED WORKERS?
1
NET PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES EXPECTING AN INCREASE
Employment prospects in the BRIC economies 2
NET PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES REPORTING AN INCREASE
3
as a whole remain robust; net 45% of businesses PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES CITING A LACK OF SKILLED WORKERS AS A CONSTRAINT ON GROWTH
increased staff levels in 2011 and a further 41% 45
expect to do so again in 2012. By contrast, even as 40
jobs were shed in the public sectors just 22% of 35
30
business leaders in the G7 boosted staff levels over
25
the past 12 months, whilst 26% expect to do so in 20
2012. 15
Rather than the challenge of unemployment 10
5
which many mature governments are grappling
0
with, businesses in the BRIC economies are faced 45 22 25 41 26 27 36 26 28
with a shortage of skilled workers; 36% of these
Employment – past Employment – next A lack of skilled
businesses believe an inability to find the right 12 months1 12 months2 workers3
workers will act as a constraint on expansion plans
over the next 12 months, well above the level BRIC G7 Global
observed in the G7 (26%). SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
6 The BRICs: propping up the global economy
7. Inflation FIGURE 7: INFLATION REMAINS A CONCERN
HOW WORRIED ARE BUSINESSES ABOUT EFFECT OF INFLATION ON GROWTH; LAST REPORTED OFFICIAL
Inflation remains a key challenge for the BRIC INFLATION RATE
economies. In India the central bank has raised
100
interest rates 13 times in 19 months to try and curb
90
double-digit rises in consumer prices. In Brazil, 80
despite recent easing, the rate inflation remains at 70
6.6% well above the target of 4.5%. In China, 60
50
inflation peaked at 6.4% in June but has since
40
dropped to 4.2%, although the expected loosening 30
of monetary policy may see this climb again. In 20
Russia, heavy fiscal spending ahead of the elections 10
0
next year is likely to keep the rate well above 6%.4
94 9.3 80 6.0 68 – 66 6.5 58 4.1
The majority of business leaders in the BRIC
economies are concerned about the impact of India Russia BRICs Brazil China
inflation on their respective economies. 68% cite it Worried about inflation Official inflation rates
as a concern across all four countries, but this
SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012/EIU 2011
ranges from 94% in India to 58% in China.
These figures are supported by the IBR which
suggests that net 38% of businesses expect to FIGURE 8: WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL DANGERS
NET PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES EXPECTING TO INCREASE SELLING PRICES/RAISE SALARIES OVER
increase selling prices over the next 12 months, NEXT 12 MONTHS
compared with just 18% globally. In India (60%)
40
and Brazil (44%) especially prices are expected
35
to climb. 30
A further 21% of businesses expect to increase 25
salaries above the rate of inflation, compared to 20
14% globally. However, there are big variations 15
10
between Brazil (40%) and India (35%), compared
5
with China (15%) and Russia (4%) on this 0
measure. 38 11 18 21 10 14
Selling prices Salaries above inflation
BRIC G7 Global
SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
“Inflation is perhaps the key issue the Central
Bank of India is dealing with right now. With
salaries expected to rise over the next 12 months,
businesses will be forced to raise prices to
maintain real profits.”
VISHESH CHANDIOK
GRANT THORNTON INDIA
4
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
The BRICs: propping up the global economy 7
8. FIGURE 9: RISE OF THE REDBACK?
PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES THAT SUPPORT THE US$ AS THE GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY
Brazil India China Russia BRICs
Yes, completely 38 38 13 13 22
Yes, but I would like to see greater diversification 40 41 30 46 35
No 22 14 41 35 33
SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
Finance FIGURE 10: STRUGGLING FOR FUNDS
PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES CITING FINANCE AS A CONSTRAINT ON GROWTH
Access to finance is an area in which businesses in
the BRIC economies struggle more than their peers 40
in the G7. Globally, around a quarter of business 35
30
leaders cite each of the cost of finance, access to
25
long-term finance and a shortage of working capital 20
as constraints on their ability to grow their 15
business. 10
5
However, in the BRIC economies, 33% of
0
business leaders cite a shortage of working capital 30 19 23 32 24 26 33 19 24
compared with 19% in the G7. Similarly 32% cite a
Cost of finance Shortage of long Shortage of working
shortage of long-term finance and 30% the cost of term finance capital
finance in the BRICs, well above levels observed in
BRIC G7 Global
the G7.
Further, businesses in mature markets feel much SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
better supported by their lenders. Whilst 78% of
G7 businesses feel that their lender is supportive of
their business, this drops to 66% in the BRIC
economies. The global average is 74%.
Interestingly, at a time of such economic
volatility, 35% of BRIC businesses say they
support the US dollar as the global reserve currency
but would like to see further diversification. A
further 33% say they do not support the US$ as the
global reserve currency, with 22% supporting it
completely.
Full support is strongest in Brazil and India
(both 38%) and weakest in China and Russia (both
13%). At least two in five businesses in Brazil, India
and Russia support the US dollar but would like to
see further diversification. In China, more than two
in five businesses do not support the US dollar as
the global reserve currency (35%).
8 The BRICs: propping up the global economy
9. Investment FIGURE 11: INVESTING FOR FUTURE GROWTH
NET PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES EXPECTING AN INCREASE LESS THOSE EXPECTING A DECREASE
Investment activity in the BRIC economies looks
robust for the next 12 months; net 47% expect to 45
increase investment in plant and machinery in 2012, 40
35
and a further net 46% plan to expand their R&D
30
activity. Across the G7, investment activity looks 25
slower with net 31% and net 17% planning to 20
increase investment in plant and machinery and 15
10
R&D respectively.
5
However, there is evidence that businesses in 0
the BRIC economies would like to see their 47 31 35 46 17 25 25 16 17
respective governments do more to alleviate the Plant & machinery R&D New building
challenges they face in terms of key infrastructure.
18% of business leaders cite the poor quality of BRIC G7 Global
transport infrastructure as a major constraint on SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
their ability to grow their operations, compared to
just 8% in the G7, and 11% globally. A further
FIGURE 12: BUSINESS EXPANSION CHOKED
17% of BRIC businesses leaders cite information PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES CITING INFRASTRUCTURE AS A CONSTRAINT ON GROWTH
communications technology as a constraint,
15
compared with 11% in the G7 and 14% globally.
10
An area in which BRIC governments have been 5
investing recently is the bidding for and hosting of 0
major sporting events such as the Olympic Games 18 8 11 17 11 14
and the FIFA World Cup. Overall 51% of BRIC Transport Information
businesses believe these events are important in communications technology
terms of attracting investment. BRIC G7 Global
In Brazil, which is to host both the FIFA World
SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016, 84%
of businesses believe such events are an important
draw for investment. In Russia, which will host the FIGURE 13: TURNING THE EYES OF THE WORLD TOWARDS YOU*
PERCENTAGE OF BUSINESSES CITING MAJOR SPORTING EVENTS AS IMPORTANT TOOL TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT
FIFA World Cup in 2018, 52% of businesses
believe these events are important, but in China, Brazil 84
which hosted the Olympic Games in 2008 support Russia 52
falls to just 39%.
BRICs 51
China 39
*this question was not asked in India
SOURCE: GRANT THORNTON IBR 2012
“While energy prices will stay consistently high for a long period of time, we hope
that in the meantime Russia will be able to lessen the economy’s dependence on raw
materials by boosting the export of deeper conversion products instead. Although
such reorientation would demand considerable infrastructure investments, it would
make the Russian economy more competitive in the long run.”
IVAN SAPAROV
GRANT THORNTON RUSSIA
The BRICs: propping up the global economy 9