Recent rebel victories in the Syrian capital region, such as the closure of the Damascus International airport, have led to speculation that the Assad regime may be close to collapse. While this is possible, it is also important to recognize that the regime still maintains control of downtown Damascus despite these significant victories for the opposition. This elevates the question of where specifically the regime still maintains control in Damascus.

2. • Recent rebel victories in the Syrian capital region, such as the closure of the Damascus International airport, have
led to speculation that the Assad regime may be close to collapse. While this is possible, it is also important to
recognize that the regime still maintains control of downtown Damascus despite these significant victories for the
opposition. This elevates the question of where specifically the regime still maintains control in Damascus.
• The regime has consolidated much of its forces in the Damascus city center and reduced patrolling in suburbs with
robust opposition presence. In retaliation for rebel activity in these neighborhoods, the regime is responding
broadly with air strikes and artillery, and with civilian massacres in the Sunni southern neighborhoods of Damascus.
• A operational map that may derive from a Syrian Republican Guard source has surfaced through social media. The
map portrays where the regime retains control in the capital region, as well as the areas that are rebel held or
contested. If genuine, it also provides the regime’s perspective on the state of play in Damascus. ISW has adapted
this map and augmented to include the locations of regime military facilities in Damascus as well as ISW observed
attack trends. The map appears to be an accurate guideline; however, it does not suggest that the regime is
incapable of patrolling in rebel held zones, nor that rebels cannot attack in regime held zones. In fact, most of the
major car bombs have occurred within downtown Damascus.
• Alawite-majority neighborhoods to the west of Damascus and critical military facilities close to downtown have
bolstered regime security. On the other hand, rebel held zones in Damascus’ northeastern suburbs, known as
Eastern Ghoutta, are surprisingly close to downtown Damascus. The fighting is likely to be most fierce in the
southern suburbs of Damascus in the coming weeks as rebels and regime forces fight over key neighborhoods, such
as Jaramana and Aqraba, consistent with the map’s depiction.

3. Damascus State of Play
As of 7 December 2012
Al-Assad
Harasta
Barzeh Douma
Qudssaya
Irbin
Saqba
Damascus Zamalka
Mazzeh 86
Al-Louan
Yarmouk Jaramana
Mouadamiyah Yalda Aqraba
Darayya
Sayyida Zeinab
Hajar al-Aswad
This map is adapted from a document reportedly recovered from the Syrian Republican Guard troops that
characterizes the state of play in Damascus as of 11/25/2012. Original found on a Syrian Activist Facebook Page.

4. The original map displayed above was recovered 11/25/2012 from Facebook Page ‫“ يوميات الثائر المتفائل‬Diary of the
Optimistic Rebel.” The Facebook page indicates that it was recovered from a Syrian Republican Guard source,
which cannot be verified, but is assessed to be likely.

5. •
1 Harasta has had consistent presence
from the 104th & 105th Regiments of the
Damascus Al-Assad Douma
Republican Guard. The so-called al-Assad
suburb is a large housing complex behind
As of 7 December 2012 1 Harasta with a density of Alawites.
Harasta
Barzeh •
2 Qudssaya is called “The Lion’s Den”
2 Irbin because of the large number of Alawite
Qudssaya
regime supporters in this neighborhood.
Damascus Zamalka
3
Saqba •
3 Mazzeh 86 is an Alawite slum and the
Mazzeh 86 point of origin for many pro-regime
militias, called Shabiha.
Al-Louan 4
•
4 The rebels recently overran Marj e-Sultan
6
Yarmouk Airbase.
5 Jaramana
Yalda •
5 Jaramana is ethnically mixed with many
Mouadamiyah Darayya Aqraba
7 Druze. There have been reports of
Sayyida Zeinab Popular Committees and pro-regime
Hajar al-Aswad Shabiha working closely with regime
forces there.
•
6 Mazzeh Military airport and its nearby
military bases are home to the 4th
8
Armored Division. These bases protect
central Damascus from the rebel forces in
Darayya and Moadamiyah.
•
7 Seyedda Zeinab houses the Seyedda
Damascus is still a stronghold of the Assad regime, but according to this Zeinab shrine, an important Shia holy
map not all of Damascus province falls under regime control. This map site. The neighborhood is dominated by
may illustrate the degree to which the Syrian Republican Guard (SRG) Shia, and there have been some reports
credits the opposition with territorial control in Damascus. Regime security that Iraqi Shia militants have travelled to
the neighborhood to help protect it from
forces continue to defend in the West. Facilities and Shia neighborhoods the mostly-Sunni opposition.
in the East are threatened by rebel expansion. Key military installations in
southern and western Damascus along with nearby Alawite-majority •
8 Recent probes and IDF at Damascus
neighborhoods contribute significantly to the regime’s defenses. international airport have led the regime
to close the airport, at least temporarily.

6. Damascus State of Play Al-Assad Douma
As of 7 December 2012
Harasta
Barzeh
Qudssaya Irbin
Damascus Zamalka Saqba
Mazzeh 86
Al-Louan
Yarmouk Jaramana
Yalda
Mouadamiyah Darayya Aqraba
Sayyida Zeinab
Hajar al-Aswad
This map juxtaposes the SRG-assessed state of play in Damascus with a density map of kinetic events tracked by
ISW from 10/01/12 to 12/06/2012. Based upon this map, ISW has observed the highest levels of kinetic activity in
Eastern areas that are no longer contested by regime ground forces, although shelling and airstrikes continue.
The SRG characterization of contested areas is also consistent with areas observed by ISW to have high
densities of kinetic events, such as Jaramana, Darayya, and Barzeh. It is also significant to note that
neighborhoods denoted as regime-held also witnesses a significant degree of kinetic activity, even in the
westernmost Mouadamiyah neighborhood, indicating that rebel forces can also attack Damascus from the West.
The center of Damascus, where few events occur, is the actual regime stronghold.

7. @TheStudyofWar www.facebook.com/InstituteForTheStudyofWar