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Future Visions of the European
Electronics Industry towards 2020


Technological Paradigm Shifts


Joachim Hafkesbrink, Innowise Germany
Getting It Wrong: Prophecies From The Past

Lord Kelvin, Mathematician and Physicist 1897: „The radio has no future.“
Why the Record Company Decca turned down the Beatles in 1962: „We
don‘t like your sound, Guitargroups are a thing of the past.“
Bill Gates, 1981: „640k should be enough for anybody.“
The US-Magazine Popular Mechanics, 1949: „The Computer of the future
will maybe still weigh 1.5 tons.“
Kaiser Wilhelm II: „I believe in the horse. The automobile is just a
temporary occurence.“
Karl Benz around 1920: „The car is now completely developed. What
else can still to come?“
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economy on Oct. 17th 1929: „It looks like the
stock markets have reached a permanent high level.“
Table of Contents


         Paradigm Shift: Definition and Examples
         Innovation Theory: trajectories, path-dependancies,
         disruptive technologies
         Paradigm Shifts and the Law of Acceleration
         Systems Innovation and Transition
         Societal Paradigms as a Framework for technological
         development
         Drivers and Barriers of Transition
         Technological Paradigm Shifts 2020
Paradigm Shift: some definitions

What is a Paradigm?
“a constellation of concepts, values, perceptions, and practices shared by a
community, which forms a particular vision of reality and a collective mood
that is the basis of the way the community organizes itself”


What is a Paradigm Shift?
“a change from one way of thinking
to another with a profound and
irreversible change to a different
model of behavior or perception”
Paradigm Shift: some examples

moving scientific theory from the Ptolemaic
system (the earth at the center of the
universe) to the Copernican system (the
sun at the center of the universe)


moving from Newtonian physics to
Relativity and Quantum Physics


Invention of fire, wheel etc.
Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory

Joseph A. Schumpeter*:
Talks about „disruptive technologies“ or „radical
innovation“
= new technological innovation, product, or service
that eventually overturns the existing dominant
technology or product in the market


* Famous Austrian Innovation Researcher
Moore‘s Law:
                       Information
                       Technologies (of all
                       kinds) double their
                       power (price,
                       performance,
                       capacity, bandwith)
                       every year.
Source: Ray Kurzweil
Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory

technological revolutions do not occur abruptly
they come only after longer periods of traditionally
bound technology, where technological improvements
follow a more or less fixed path of development
Evolution of a Technology
                                               (A technological Trajectory)

 Degree of
 Maturity
 (Performance)


                                                                              New technology
                                 Incremental
                                                                              (new trajectory)
                                  Innovation


                      Path dependency



                                           Radical
                                         Innovation

                         Birth        Growth       Maturity                                      Time
                   Radical
                 Innovation


Technological trajectory: industry sticks to a given trajectory (technology
path) as long as incremental innovation are favoured to prevent sunk costs
from changing the basic technology
Law of Acceleration (Ray Kurzweil)

   Paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is
   currently doubling (approximately) every decade.
   That is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate
   of acceleration is itself growing exponentially).
   So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be
   equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of
   200 centuries.
   In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 20 years of
   progress (again at today's rate of progress) since we have been
   speeding up to current rates.
   So the twenty-first century will see about a thousand times greater
   technological change than its predecessor.
Source: Ray Kurzweil
Source: Ray Kurzweil
Systems Innovation: Transition Phases and Levels
Systems Innovation: Multidimensional Shifts



                                         Radical structural              System
                                         innovations                     innovations
    Change in market / actor relations




                                         Example:                        Example:
                                         Re-Use of electronic devices,
                                         components and parts
                                                                         New Business Models for
                                                                         Product-Service Systems
                                                                                                     Fusion of technologies,
                           -




                                                                                                     products with new
                                                                                                     services and new use
                   -




                                                                                                     models
                                         Incremental                     Radical process
                                         innovations                     innovations
                                         Example:                        Example:
                                         Improvement of plastic          Non-destructive automatic
                                         recognition technology          disassembly




                                                    Change in production / technology
Systems Innovation: Long Waves of Development
Paradigms shifts in the Electronics Industry 1970-2000
        A)       reactive                  receptive              constructive                  system


        B)      End of pipe                  Process                  Product                   System


        C)       Specialists                Managers                   Sector                   Society


        D)      Minimisation              Optimisation             Acceleration                  Vision


        E)        Taylorism             Automatisation           Time to Market             Sustainability
              Standardized production   Comparative Advantages   Competitive Advantages   Systemic Competitiveness



                                        A) response phase             C) main actors
                                        B) focus of attention        D) driving philosophy
                                                        E) trajectory


                   1970                        1980                     1990                       2000              t


„From a linear to a circular valua-added chain based on new paradigms
with service extensions.“
Seeds of transition from a production-and-throw-away
Economy to a service oriented knowledge based Industry


 Macro-level: new governance Portfolio - WEEE, EuP, RoHS ....


 Meso-level: new alliances - joint-cooperative innovation
 networks, change in cultural and belief regimes


 Micro-level: actors from different sectors are driving innovation
 (communication and content provider, suppliers, OEMs, waste
 management and recycling companies, science/consulting)
Barriers of transition


 Macro-level: some regulation is more a barrier than a driver


 Meso-level: loss of ownership may hinder diffusion of product-
 service shift


 Micro-level: technical barriers (end of Moore‘s Law 1 in 2015,
 barriers in multi-disciplinary cooperation – barriers in knowledge
 transfer)
Technological paradigm shifts towards the year 2020


„New trajectories are things we are researching today and which will be
reality tomorrow“


Sources:
Research and development programs (national, EU-level, US...)
Industry Roadmaps
European Technology Platforms
Foresight Studies, Delphis, Scenarios
...
What happens in a technological paradigm shift?

Way of thinking: vision, basic philosophy, view, mindset
Technological kernels: models, basic technology, miniaturization and
acceleration...
Crossover Trends: convergence, cross-fertilization, embeddedness,
computation...
Dialogue: connectivity, networks, communication...
Capabilities: learning, mimicking, self-sustaining...
Environment: way of using it, work organization,
energy issues...
“The farther backward you can look,
the farther forward you can see.”
(Winston Churchill)
Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 1
                     1960-1980             1981-2000                   2001-2020                                 2021- ...
              Technology quot;out-therequot;
              (technology alien to   Technology in support to Technology as interface to            Technology becoming a second
Vision
              nature - technology to mankind                  nature                                nature
              control the world)
                                                                                                    self-organizing, self-repairing,
basic
            maximisation              optimisation               sufficiency, adaptation, learning fault-tolerance, redundancy,
philosophy
                                                                                                    fuzziness
                                                                 evolutionary, bottum-up, open
                                                                                                    evolutionary, self-organized,
view             technocratic, top-down, centralized control     distributed and mobile
                                                                                                    evolve-able systems
                                                                 architecture
                                                                                                    self-understanding, self-
                         analysis, planning, control
mindset                                                          adaptation to user's environment awareness, self-learning
                behaviour to be thought in statistical terms
                                                                                                    (quot;knowbotsquot;)
                                                                                                    adaptive algorithms to operate
                                      fixed-parameter models, variable-parameter models,
            fixed-parameter                                                                         in large, open and non-
                                      structural algorithmic for distributed structural algorithmic
focus of    models, top-down                                                                        deterministic environments
                                      large systems to manage to build distributed, concurrent
software    algorithmic, unportable,                                                                (adaptive embedded systems),
                                      dependencies between systems, portability, object
development tied to one kind of                                                                     software that can adapt to
                                      different parts of         orientation, adaptability to
and models hardware or particular                                                                   different circumstances with
                                      programms, limited         different environments with
            operating system                                                                        limited, or even without,
                                      portability                limited effort
                                                                                                    intervention by a developer
basic                                                            CMOS and additional                Post CMOS era: Photonics,
technology    vacuum tube and                                    throughput by                      processing systems based on
                                       Integrated Circuits/Chips
processing    discrete transistors                               parallelisation/distribution       biological neural networks linked
systems                                                          techniques                         to quantum computing systems
Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 2
                       1960-1980                   1981-2000                         2001-2020                      2021- ...
                                                                                                     quantum promise, “information
                                                                      nano-scale devices reaching a carriers” based on electrons,
miniaturizatio
               macro                       meso, micro                scale below 10 nanometres (2D- photons, spins, ions, molecular
n
                                                                      nanosheets)                    dynamics, neurons, etc. (qubits);
                                                                                                     3D Nanoelectronics
                                                                                                       Beyond Moore; technological
law of                                                                More of Moore, End of Moore's
                                           Moore's Law                                                 singularity (PC will achive
acceleration                                                          Law for CMOS
                                                                                                       human brain capacity)
                                           megabyte, gigabyte,
processing      kilobyte, 0.25 MIPS in                                terabyte and peak performance
                                           1.00 MIPS in the year                                      peta device computing
speed           the year 1967                                         of TeraFLOPS for standard chip;
                                           2003
                                                                                                       bio-society linking the realms of
analog-digital-                                                                                        information, material and life,
               analogue society                                    digital society
bio shift                                                                                              combination of digital and
                                                                                                       analgous computation
                                                                                                       completely integrated bio-
                                                                      quot;Bio-ICT Convergencequot;,           electronic systems, combination
                                                                      managing the quot;wet frontierquot;      of living and artificial systems,
cross-
                mono-disciplinarity        inter-disciplinarity       (interface between organic and   technological artefacts
fertilization
                                                                      non-organic; neuro-electronic    increasingly involving and
                                                                      interfaces)                      exploiting the properties of living
                                                                                                       material
data                                       large data and                 managing diversity in data and knowledge by adaptation,
                small quantities of data
complexity                                 knowledge repositories       convergence of digital data, quanta with bio-nano-technologies
Source: Ray Kurzweil




                       The Matrix
                                    Remember?
Technological Paradigm Shifts Updated
Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 3
                    1960-1980               1981-2000                   2001-2020                           2021- ...
                                                                                              pervasive adaptation ('change'
                                                                                              of ICT-systems as fundamental
                                                                                              property so that they can
                                                                                              develop, grow, self-assemble,
                                                              bio-chemically based
                                                                                              replicate, evolve, adapt, repair
                                                              computation, ubiquitous
                                                                                              and self-organise over long
                                                              computation (anywhere,
                                                                                              periods of time, life-like
                    number-based, quot;turing computationquot;,       anytime), morphological
computation                                                                                   computation, emotional
                     quot;one level, one unit, one purposequot;       computation with distributed
                                                                                              computation, biological &
                                                              intelligence, M3P Systems
                                                                                              biohybrid modules for new forms
                                                              (quot;Many level, Many Unit, Many
                                                                                              of computation and enhanced
                                                              Purposequot;)
                                                                                              interaction with the environment,
                                                                                              programmable & intelligent
                                                                                              materials (computational
                                                                                              materials)
role of                                                       managing input-outputs from multiple networks (WiFi, Bluetooth,
operating        optimal scheduling and memory utilization    UMTS, etc.), managing mobility (who are the neighbours? Where
systems                                                       are they?), managing reconfigurability (energy saving), managing
                                                                                              pervasive communication and
                                     bi-directional                                           connectivity: flexible multi-
                                                              beyond fixed end-to-end
                                     connectivity, cable-                                     directional decentralized
             unidirectional                                   connectivity paradigm: multi-
                                     based, fixed-wireless                                    connectivity, 4G wireless (Open
connectivity connectivity, cable-                             directional connectivity,
                                     convergence, 1G/2G                                       Wireless Architecture);
             based                                            2.5G/3G data-ventric wireless
                                     voice centric wireless                                   seamless unification of different
                                                              communication (UMTS)
                                     (GPRS)                                                   kinds of networks (wireless,
                                                                                              optical)
communicati
                    one-to-one             one-to-many               many-to-many, ubiquitous instant messaging online
on
Ubiquituous computing:



                                          Hey Baby – what‘s
                                           about having a
                                               walk?




                         You‘re boring!
ERCIM News No.47, October 2001




http://www.limsi.fr/
Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 4
                   1960-1980                1981-2000                     2001-2020                               2021- ...
                                                              heterogenous interconnected
                                                              networks, massively distributed        global networks on planetary
                                                              interoperable pervasive                scale, self-aware IT-networks,
                                                              computing, GRID-technology,            total interoperability of mobile,
networking                           homogenous proprietary 'middleware' as mediator                 fixed, personal and corporate
             no networks
attributes                           fixed network structures between structure and content,         heterogeneous resources and
                                                              seamless broadband                     applications with ubiquitous
                                                              communication networks                 access, networked societies of
                                                              spanning from the personal area        artefacts
                                                              to the regional and global area.
                                     user more and more
user                                                               quot;away from user's attentionquot;, ubiquitous, subconsciously,
             high user attention     detached from
attention                                                                                 embedded
                                     application
                                                                                                     intelligent artificial agents with
                                                              complete agent' approach
                                                                                                     free association, creativity and
                                                              (agents that are embodied and
                                                                                                     empathy that can perceive,
                                                              self-sufficient, situated, e.g. able
                                                                                                     understand, and interact with
                                                              to acquire information through
agents       single-agent approach   multi-agent approach                                            their environment, but also
                                                              their own sensors and act
                                                                                                     evolve and learn in order to
                                                              accordingly, and autonomous,
                                                                                                     achieve human-like
                                                              i.e. functioning independently
                                                                                                     performance activities requiring
                                                              without external control)
                                                                                                     context-specific knowledge
Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 5
                        1960-1980          1981-2000                   2001-2020                          2021- ...
                                                                                            intelligent agent technology,
                                                                                            configurable by metadata,
                                                                                            representing the end-user, able
                                                          ambient intelligence (built-in)   to recall behaviours in context,
                                                          with contextual awareness,        to link to system-centric
                                                          RFID tags/sensors as part of all- environment for contextual,
intelligence   stupid               maturing
                                                          pervasive environment with        historical and domain knowledge
                                                          intelligent interfaces, quot;towards  and utilise this in improving the
                                                          natural cognitionquot;                interaction, quot;New cognitive
                                                                                            paradigmquot;, quot;Embodied
                                                                                            Intelligencequot;, quot;Swarm
                                                                                            Intelligencequot;
                                                                                            Web 4.0 and higher (trustful:
                                                                                            managing and operating critical
                                                          Web 2.0 (blogs bringing           infrastructure; bridge between
                                    Web1.0 (genesis of    dramatic changes in news and physical and virtual world via
                                    websites-1995)        publishing; Wikipedia, OpenBC, instrumented and managed
internet       not existing         Web1.1. (Mass-capable Ajax etc.) 2005;                  sensorized physical
                                    1998)      Web 1.2.   Web 3.0 (melting pot; deeply      environment; supporting
                                    (More Service 2000)   integrated in physical            pervasive computing, seamless
                                                          environments) 2010                access to networked
                                                                                            instruments, supercomputers,
                                                                                            storage etc.)
information                                                                                 context-sensitive semantic
               byte search          string search         semantic search
selection                                                                                   search
                                                                                            security of nanotechnologies
                                                          eternal systems (quot;software that and biocomputing (Quantum
                                    vulnerable
                                                          lasts 200 yearsquot;), extremely long-Cryptography, security of
                                    interdependent ICT
http://www.ics.forth.gr/ami/index.html
Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 6
                    1960-1980                   1981-2000                     2001-2020                             2021- ...
                                                                   ICT-devices learning from
                                                                                                       self-repairing, healing ICT-
                                                                   sophisticated perception
                                                                                                       devices with reconfigurable
                                                                   systems mimicking humans and
features of   one device for one                                                                       structures (self-designing, self-
                                         multifunctional devices   natural behaviour, ICT-devices
devices       purpose                                                                                  decision-making and self-
                                                                   involving properties of living
                                                                                                       maintaining software IT
                                                                   materials including cognition,
                                                                                                       systems)
                                                                   perception and action
                                                                   Situated and cooperating smart
                                                                   devices (artefacts) with sensing,
                                                                   acting and computational
              audio cassettes,
                                                                   capabilities 'hidden' in
              compact disk, handheld
                                                                   environment and
              calculator, computer                                                                     bio-electrical robots, nanobots,
                                         mobile phones with        communicating with each other,
              mouse, floppy disk,                                                                      smart drugs, Artificial intelligent
                                         multiple functions like   ICT everywhere – packaging,
examples      microprocessor,                                                                          entities („artilects“) able to
                                         camera, music player,     clothes, domestic devices,
              ethernet, laser printer,                                                                 interpret and respond to human
                                         PDA etc                   leisure devices, business
              cellular phone,                                                                          emotions
                                                                   systems, environmental
              walkman, cray
                                                                   systems, health systems, Smart
              computer
                                                                   Dust (large networks of
                                                                   sensors); quot;content everywhere
                                                                   and at anytimequot;
Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 7
                    1960-1980                 1981-2000                     2001-2020                          2021- ...
                                                               personalized and context-aware
                                                               services adopted to the user's
                                                               environment ('Situated
                                                                                                  universal personalized services,
                                                               Services'), new solutions that
product-                              product-service systems,                                    networks of cooperating
              products; Data Poor                              combine technology and
service shift                         Data Rich                                                   services, seamless adaptive
                                                               markets with geography and
                                                                                                  service systems
                                                               users, dynamic digital services
                                                               to users anywhere anytime;
                                                               Information Rich - Service Rich
work-                                                          virtual corporation, physical-     delegation to AIE (Artificial
              centralized             dezentralized
organization                                                   virtual confluence                 Intelligence Entitites)
                                                                    managing reconfigurability to reduce energy consumption,
                                      increasing energy
                                                               shift from tera device computing
              large energy            consumption as a result
                                                               with high energy consumption to reducing computation to a
energy        consumption as a result of economic growth and
                                                               a larger number of parallel but minimal physical process, e.g.
issues        of macro systems in     increasing number of
                                                               slower cores with less             using natural dynamics of
              place                   high-performance chips
                                                               complexity; implementation of molecules (qubits)
                                      (Giga device computing)
                                                               fuel cells for mobile applications
Technological Paradigm Shifts Updated
Technological Paradigm Shifts Updated
Thank you for your attention

Joachim Hafkesbrink


Innowise GmbH, Germany
RIAS – Rhein-Ruhr Institute for Applied Systems Innovation e.V.
Jh@innowise.eu


Tel. +49-171-12 0 11 77

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Technological Paradigm Shifts Updated

  • 1. Future Visions of the European Electronics Industry towards 2020 Technological Paradigm Shifts Joachim Hafkesbrink, Innowise Germany
  • 2. Getting It Wrong: Prophecies From The Past Lord Kelvin, Mathematician and Physicist 1897: „The radio has no future.“ Why the Record Company Decca turned down the Beatles in 1962: „We don‘t like your sound, Guitargroups are a thing of the past.“ Bill Gates, 1981: „640k should be enough for anybody.“ The US-Magazine Popular Mechanics, 1949: „The Computer of the future will maybe still weigh 1.5 tons.“ Kaiser Wilhelm II: „I believe in the horse. The automobile is just a temporary occurence.“ Karl Benz around 1920: „The car is now completely developed. What else can still to come?“ Irving Fisher, Professor of Economy on Oct. 17th 1929: „It looks like the stock markets have reached a permanent high level.“
  • 3. Table of Contents Paradigm Shift: Definition and Examples Innovation Theory: trajectories, path-dependancies, disruptive technologies Paradigm Shifts and the Law of Acceleration Systems Innovation and Transition Societal Paradigms as a Framework for technological development Drivers and Barriers of Transition Technological Paradigm Shifts 2020
  • 4. Paradigm Shift: some definitions What is a Paradigm? “a constellation of concepts, values, perceptions, and practices shared by a community, which forms a particular vision of reality and a collective mood that is the basis of the way the community organizes itself” What is a Paradigm Shift? “a change from one way of thinking to another with a profound and irreversible change to a different model of behavior or perception”
  • 5. Paradigm Shift: some examples moving scientific theory from the Ptolemaic system (the earth at the center of the universe) to the Copernican system (the sun at the center of the universe) moving from Newtonian physics to Relativity and Quantum Physics Invention of fire, wheel etc.
  • 6. Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory Joseph A. Schumpeter*: Talks about „disruptive technologies“ or „radical innovation“ = new technological innovation, product, or service that eventually overturns the existing dominant technology or product in the market * Famous Austrian Innovation Researcher
  • 7. Moore‘s Law: Information Technologies (of all kinds) double their power (price, performance, capacity, bandwith) every year. Source: Ray Kurzweil
  • 8. Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory technological revolutions do not occur abruptly they come only after longer periods of traditionally bound technology, where technological improvements follow a more or less fixed path of development
  • 9. Evolution of a Technology (A technological Trajectory) Degree of Maturity (Performance) New technology Incremental (new trajectory) Innovation Path dependency Radical Innovation Birth Growth Maturity Time Radical Innovation Technological trajectory: industry sticks to a given trajectory (technology path) as long as incremental innovation are favoured to prevent sunk costs from changing the basic technology
  • 10. Law of Acceleration (Ray Kurzweil) Paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade. That is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 20 years of progress (again at today's rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see about a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor.
  • 13. Systems Innovation: Transition Phases and Levels
  • 14. Systems Innovation: Multidimensional Shifts Radical structural System innovations innovations Change in market / actor relations Example: Example: Re-Use of electronic devices, components and parts New Business Models for Product-Service Systems Fusion of technologies, - products with new services and new use - models Incremental Radical process innovations innovations Example: Example: Improvement of plastic Non-destructive automatic recognition technology disassembly Change in production / technology
  • 15. Systems Innovation: Long Waves of Development
  • 16. Paradigms shifts in the Electronics Industry 1970-2000 A) reactive receptive constructive system B) End of pipe Process Product System C) Specialists Managers Sector Society D) Minimisation Optimisation Acceleration Vision E) Taylorism Automatisation Time to Market Sustainability Standardized production Comparative Advantages Competitive Advantages Systemic Competitiveness A) response phase C) main actors B) focus of attention D) driving philosophy E) trajectory 1970 1980 1990 2000 t „From a linear to a circular valua-added chain based on new paradigms with service extensions.“
  • 17. Seeds of transition from a production-and-throw-away Economy to a service oriented knowledge based Industry Macro-level: new governance Portfolio - WEEE, EuP, RoHS .... Meso-level: new alliances - joint-cooperative innovation networks, change in cultural and belief regimes Micro-level: actors from different sectors are driving innovation (communication and content provider, suppliers, OEMs, waste management and recycling companies, science/consulting)
  • 18. Barriers of transition Macro-level: some regulation is more a barrier than a driver Meso-level: loss of ownership may hinder diffusion of product- service shift Micro-level: technical barriers (end of Moore‘s Law 1 in 2015, barriers in multi-disciplinary cooperation – barriers in knowledge transfer)
  • 19. Technological paradigm shifts towards the year 2020 „New trajectories are things we are researching today and which will be reality tomorrow“ Sources: Research and development programs (national, EU-level, US...) Industry Roadmaps European Technology Platforms Foresight Studies, Delphis, Scenarios ...
  • 20. What happens in a technological paradigm shift? Way of thinking: vision, basic philosophy, view, mindset Technological kernels: models, basic technology, miniaturization and acceleration... Crossover Trends: convergence, cross-fertilization, embeddedness, computation... Dialogue: connectivity, networks, communication... Capabilities: learning, mimicking, self-sustaining... Environment: way of using it, work organization, energy issues...
  • 21. “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.” (Winston Churchill)
  • 22. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 1 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... Technology quot;out-therequot; (technology alien to Technology in support to Technology as interface to Technology becoming a second Vision nature - technology to mankind nature nature control the world) self-organizing, self-repairing, basic maximisation optimisation sufficiency, adaptation, learning fault-tolerance, redundancy, philosophy fuzziness evolutionary, bottum-up, open evolutionary, self-organized, view technocratic, top-down, centralized control distributed and mobile evolve-able systems architecture self-understanding, self- analysis, planning, control mindset adaptation to user's environment awareness, self-learning behaviour to be thought in statistical terms (quot;knowbotsquot;) adaptive algorithms to operate fixed-parameter models, variable-parameter models, fixed-parameter in large, open and non- structural algorithmic for distributed structural algorithmic focus of models, top-down deterministic environments large systems to manage to build distributed, concurrent software algorithmic, unportable, (adaptive embedded systems), dependencies between systems, portability, object development tied to one kind of software that can adapt to different parts of orientation, adaptability to and models hardware or particular different circumstances with programms, limited different environments with operating system limited, or even without, portability limited effort intervention by a developer basic CMOS and additional Post CMOS era: Photonics, technology vacuum tube and throughput by processing systems based on Integrated Circuits/Chips processing discrete transistors parallelisation/distribution biological neural networks linked systems techniques to quantum computing systems
  • 23. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 2 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... quantum promise, “information nano-scale devices reaching a carriers” based on electrons, miniaturizatio macro meso, micro scale below 10 nanometres (2D- photons, spins, ions, molecular n nanosheets) dynamics, neurons, etc. (qubits); 3D Nanoelectronics Beyond Moore; technological law of More of Moore, End of Moore's Moore's Law singularity (PC will achive acceleration Law for CMOS human brain capacity) megabyte, gigabyte, processing kilobyte, 0.25 MIPS in terabyte and peak performance 1.00 MIPS in the year peta device computing speed the year 1967 of TeraFLOPS for standard chip; 2003 bio-society linking the realms of analog-digital- information, material and life, analogue society digital society bio shift combination of digital and analgous computation completely integrated bio- quot;Bio-ICT Convergencequot;, electronic systems, combination managing the quot;wet frontierquot; of living and artificial systems, cross- mono-disciplinarity inter-disciplinarity (interface between organic and technological artefacts fertilization non-organic; neuro-electronic increasingly involving and interfaces) exploiting the properties of living material data large data and managing diversity in data and knowledge by adaptation, small quantities of data complexity knowledge repositories convergence of digital data, quanta with bio-nano-technologies
  • 24. Source: Ray Kurzweil The Matrix Remember?
  • 26. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 3 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... pervasive adaptation ('change' of ICT-systems as fundamental property so that they can develop, grow, self-assemble, bio-chemically based replicate, evolve, adapt, repair computation, ubiquitous and self-organise over long computation (anywhere, periods of time, life-like number-based, quot;turing computationquot;, anytime), morphological computation computation, emotional quot;one level, one unit, one purposequot; computation with distributed computation, biological & intelligence, M3P Systems biohybrid modules for new forms (quot;Many level, Many Unit, Many of computation and enhanced Purposequot;) interaction with the environment, programmable & intelligent materials (computational materials) role of managing input-outputs from multiple networks (WiFi, Bluetooth, operating optimal scheduling and memory utilization UMTS, etc.), managing mobility (who are the neighbours? Where systems are they?), managing reconfigurability (energy saving), managing pervasive communication and bi-directional connectivity: flexible multi- beyond fixed end-to-end connectivity, cable- directional decentralized unidirectional connectivity paradigm: multi- based, fixed-wireless connectivity, 4G wireless (Open connectivity connectivity, cable- directional connectivity, convergence, 1G/2G Wireless Architecture); based 2.5G/3G data-ventric wireless voice centric wireless seamless unification of different communication (UMTS) (GPRS) kinds of networks (wireless, optical) communicati one-to-one one-to-many many-to-many, ubiquitous instant messaging online on
  • 27. Ubiquituous computing: Hey Baby – what‘s about having a walk? You‘re boring!
  • 28. ERCIM News No.47, October 2001 http://www.limsi.fr/
  • 29. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 4 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... heterogenous interconnected networks, massively distributed global networks on planetary interoperable pervasive scale, self-aware IT-networks, computing, GRID-technology, total interoperability of mobile, networking homogenous proprietary 'middleware' as mediator fixed, personal and corporate no networks attributes fixed network structures between structure and content, heterogeneous resources and seamless broadband applications with ubiquitous communication networks access, networked societies of spanning from the personal area artefacts to the regional and global area. user more and more user quot;away from user's attentionquot;, ubiquitous, subconsciously, high user attention detached from attention embedded application intelligent artificial agents with complete agent' approach free association, creativity and (agents that are embodied and empathy that can perceive, self-sufficient, situated, e.g. able understand, and interact with to acquire information through agents single-agent approach multi-agent approach their environment, but also their own sensors and act evolve and learn in order to accordingly, and autonomous, achieve human-like i.e. functioning independently performance activities requiring without external control) context-specific knowledge
  • 30. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 5 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... intelligent agent technology, configurable by metadata, representing the end-user, able ambient intelligence (built-in) to recall behaviours in context, with contextual awareness, to link to system-centric RFID tags/sensors as part of all- environment for contextual, intelligence stupid maturing pervasive environment with historical and domain knowledge intelligent interfaces, quot;towards and utilise this in improving the natural cognitionquot; interaction, quot;New cognitive paradigmquot;, quot;Embodied Intelligencequot;, quot;Swarm Intelligencequot; Web 4.0 and higher (trustful: managing and operating critical Web 2.0 (blogs bringing infrastructure; bridge between Web1.0 (genesis of dramatic changes in news and physical and virtual world via websites-1995) publishing; Wikipedia, OpenBC, instrumented and managed internet not existing Web1.1. (Mass-capable Ajax etc.) 2005; sensorized physical 1998) Web 1.2. Web 3.0 (melting pot; deeply environment; supporting (More Service 2000) integrated in physical pervasive computing, seamless environments) 2010 access to networked instruments, supercomputers, storage etc.) information context-sensitive semantic byte search string search semantic search selection search security of nanotechnologies eternal systems (quot;software that and biocomputing (Quantum vulnerable lasts 200 yearsquot;), extremely long-Cryptography, security of interdependent ICT
  • 32. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 6 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... ICT-devices learning from self-repairing, healing ICT- sophisticated perception devices with reconfigurable systems mimicking humans and features of one device for one structures (self-designing, self- multifunctional devices natural behaviour, ICT-devices devices purpose decision-making and self- involving properties of living maintaining software IT materials including cognition, systems) perception and action Situated and cooperating smart devices (artefacts) with sensing, acting and computational audio cassettes, capabilities 'hidden' in compact disk, handheld environment and calculator, computer bio-electrical robots, nanobots, mobile phones with communicating with each other, mouse, floppy disk, smart drugs, Artificial intelligent multiple functions like ICT everywhere – packaging, examples microprocessor, entities („artilects“) able to camera, music player, clothes, domestic devices, ethernet, laser printer, interpret and respond to human PDA etc leisure devices, business cellular phone, emotions systems, environmental walkman, cray systems, health systems, Smart computer Dust (large networks of sensors); quot;content everywhere and at anytimequot;
  • 33. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 7 1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ... personalized and context-aware services adopted to the user's environment ('Situated universal personalized services, Services'), new solutions that product- product-service systems, networks of cooperating products; Data Poor combine technology and service shift Data Rich services, seamless adaptive markets with geography and service systems users, dynamic digital services to users anywhere anytime; Information Rich - Service Rich work- virtual corporation, physical- delegation to AIE (Artificial centralized dezentralized organization virtual confluence Intelligence Entitites) managing reconfigurability to reduce energy consumption, increasing energy shift from tera device computing large energy consumption as a result with high energy consumption to reducing computation to a energy consumption as a result of economic growth and a larger number of parallel but minimal physical process, e.g. issues of macro systems in increasing number of slower cores with less using natural dynamics of place high-performance chips complexity; implementation of molecules (qubits) (Giga device computing) fuel cells for mobile applications
  • 36. Thank you for your attention Joachim Hafkesbrink Innowise GmbH, Germany RIAS – Rhein-Ruhr Institute for Applied Systems Innovation e.V. Jh@innowise.eu Tel. +49-171-12 0 11 77