We have lowered our forecasts for Trican Well Service Ltd. due to growing uncertainty in U.S. pressure pumping operations and lower expected activity levels. We now expect weaker results in Q1 and Q2 of 2012 compared to recent periods. However, we believe the pressure pumping market will remain robust long-term and require incremental capital investment. Our 12-month target price is lowered to C$23.00 from C$28.00 previously.

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Oil & Gas Services Scott Treadwell, P. Eng. Ian Thies, (Associate)
Recommendation: BUY
Prior: ACTION LIST BUY
Risk: HIGH
12-Month Target Price: C$23.00
Trican Well Service Ltd.
(TCW-T) C$15.10
Prior: C$28.00
12-Month Total Return: 54.3%
Removing from Action List
Market Data (C$)
Current Price $15.10
52-Wk Range $13.44-$26.73 Event
Mkt Cap (f.d.)($mm) $2,328.4 With the rollout of our updated commodity deck, we have updated our
Mkt Cap (basic)($mm) $2,218.2
EV ($mm) $2,518.0
forecast for the Oilfield Services Sector (OFS). With growing uncertainty in
Dividend per Share $0.30 U.S. pressure pumping operations, we have lowered our expectations for
Dividend Yield 2.0% Trican – both in terms of top-line drivers and profitability.
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (3mths) 1,031,098
Financial Data (C$) Impact
Fiscal Y-E December
Shares O/S (f.d.)(mm) 154.2
NEGATIVE. Our long-term outlook continues to be strong for the space;
Shares O/S (basic)(mm) 146.9 however, in the near term we expect Q1 and Q2 to be materially below recent
Float Shares (mm) -- results for Trican, as lower utilization affects profitability in addition to
Net Debt ($mm) $299.8
pricing and cost pressures. We expect a rebound toward the 25% EBITDA
Net Debt/Tot Cap 15.0%
level in Q3 and beyond, as start-up issues are dealt with.
Estimates (C$)
Year 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E
Sales ($mm) 1,478.3 2,309.6 2,574.9 3,087.7
With our updated forecasts, our target price for Trican reduces to $23.00
Sales (old)($mm) -- -- 2,785.6 3,209.2 from $28.00 – still based on 5.5x our 2012/2013 EV/EBITDA estimates.
EBITDA ($mm) 330.4 614.5 619.2 838.4 With a 54% return to target, we rate Trican BUY (prior Action List
EBITDA (old)($mm) -- -- 753.5 916.2 Buy).
EPS (f.d.) 1.09 2.31 1.93 2.73
EPS (f.d.)(old) -- -- 2.55 3.09
Outlook
Valuations As noted in our industry pieces, the Canadian winter season has ended in a
Year 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E normal timeframe, but completion activity was delayed in ramping up for Q1.
P/E (f.d.) 13.9x 6.5x 7.8x 5.5x
The result is broadly a 10% reduction in activity potential for the pressure
Est. EV/EBITDA 6.8x 4.1x 4.1x 3.0x
pumpers, driven by fewer wells available. Going ahead, we believe that
Supplemental Data (C$)
Year 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E
spending reductions by producers will continue and – as such – have lowered
Wells Drilled 12,062 12,892 11,500 12,250 our 2012 capital forecast to $3.0 billion below 2011 levels. With WCSB
Gas $US/mmBTU $4.37 $3.98 $2.60 $3.50 production weighted to gas and nearly full Canadian storage, we see further
Oil $US/bbl $79.45 $95.00 $105.00 $105.00 risk to the downside, but see that it is currently offset by less capital flowing
to land sales and stronger oil prices.
All figures in C$, unless otherwise specified.
In the U.S., we believe that there are two noisy quarters ahead, where pricing
and margins will be weaker. We believe that the market currently prices in a
much more severe down leg than is likely, and continue to believe that the
pressure pumping market will, in the long term, remain robust and require
incremental capital investment.
TCW-T: Price
Company Profile 30 30
Trican is a pressure pumper with operations
25 25
in western Canada, Russia, the U.S. and a
small operation in Algeria. Trican performs 20 20
fraccing, cementing, coiled tubing and
15 15
nitrogen services in western Canada and
Please see the final pages of Russia, fraccing and cementing in the U.S. 10 10
this document for important and coil tubing in Algeria.
disclosure information.
5 5
2009 2010 2011

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Exhibit 1: Changes to forecast
2012 2013
2011A Est. Prior Chng Est. Prior Chng
Revenue-$mm
Canada 1,283 1,405 1,550 -9% 1,659 1,733 -4%
Russia 291 305 319 -4% 327 329 -1%
United States 739 865 917 -6% 1,101 1,147 -4%
Revenue-$mm 2,310 2,574.9 2,785.6 -8% 3,087.7 3,209.2 -4%
EBITDA-$mm
Canada 465 484 562 -14% 590 629 -6%
Russia 26 32 37 -15% 41 45 -10%
United States 191 171 222 -23% 278 312 -11%
Corp. -64 -68 -68 0% -70 -70 0%
EBITDA-$mm 614.5 619.2 753.5 -18% 838.4 916.2 -8%
EBITDA Margin-%
Canada 36.2% 34.5% 36.2% 35.6% 36.3%
Russia 9.0% 10.3% 11.7% 12.4% 13.7%
United States 25.8% 19.8% 24.2% 25.2% 27.2%
EBITDA Margin-% 26.6% 24.0% 27.0% 27.2% 28.5%
Net Income - $mm 340.5 285.9 378.1 -24% 405.5 458.3 -12%
per Share (dil.) $2.31 $1.93 $2.55 -24% $2.73 $3.09 -12%
Cash Flow - $mm 605.7 533.6 639.2 -17% 712.5 773.0 -8%
per Share (diluted) $4.12 $3.59 $4.31 -17% $4.80 $5.21 -8%
CAPEX - $mm 583.4 600.0 600.0 0% 400.0 400.0 0%
Exit Net Debt - $mm 299.8 334.5 295.4 13% 119.0 9.3 1175%
Source: Company Reports, TD Securities
Valuation
At current levels, Trican trades within 15% of our estimate of replacement cost – likely the maximum
downside in the short term. As more negative industry comments arrive, the market will continue to
overestimate the downside, and likely present a strong buying opportunity for longer-term investors. In the
short term, we believe that Q1 will be messy, with some spillover into Q2; so we do not see material upside for
the space in general until some improved visibility on second-half activity is apparent.
Justification of Target Price
Our target price calculation method concentrates primarily on forward-year EV/EBITDA estimates. We
continue to use historical multiples as goalposts, but set our target prices for our universe as being defined by a
multiple range. In the case of Trican, the range is between 5.0x and 5.5x – down from our prior 5.5x-6.0x
range, on our updated 2012/2013 forecasts. Our $23.00 target price is based on the higher-end of that range
and we rate Trican a BUY, down from Action List Buy.

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Exhibit 2: Industry Comparibles
28-Mar Mkt. EPS P/E
Ticker Price Cap EV 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E
($mm) ($mm)
Pressure Pumpers
CFW-T $28.70 $1,275 $1,594 $1.23 $4.22 $3.96 $4.65 23.3x 6.8x 7.2x 6.2x
TCW-T $15.10 $2,218 $2,518 $1.09 $2.31 $1.93 $2.73 13.9x 6.5x 7.8x 5.5x
Sub-segment Averages
Drillers 31.7x 12.3x 8.2x 6.8x
Pressure Pumpers 18.6x 6.7x 7.5x 5.9x
Transportation, Logistics & Infrastructure 27.2x 32.6x 14.1x 10.5x
Small Cap Oilfield Services 49.1x 14.6x 12.2x 7.8x
Group Average 34.0x 17.0x 10.7x 7.8x
Current EBITDA ($mm) EV/EBITDA
Ticker Div. Yield 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E
Pressure Pumpers
CFW-T $1.00 3.5% $185 $413 $412 $490 7.2x 4.1x 4.1x 3.4x
TCW-T $0.30 2.0% $330 $615 $619 $838 6.8x 4.1x 4.1x 3.0x
Sub-segment Averages
Drillers 6.9x 5.8x 4.7x 4.1x
Pressure Pumpers 7.0x 4.1x 4.1x 3.2x
Transportation, Logistics & Infrastructure 8.0x 10.6x 6.9x 5.7x
Small Cap Oilfield Services 7.3x 13.9x 5.6x 4.1x
Group Average 7.3x 9.1x 5.4x 4.3x
Source: Company Reports, TD Securities
Key Risks to Target Price
 Weakness in commodity prices
 Unseasonable weather
 Finding, training and retaining qualified staff
 Availability of equipment and parts
 Changes in legislation/regulation pertaining to fracturing operations
 Foreign country risk
Investment Conclusion
We have adjusted our estimates for Trican based on a slightly weaker-than-expected Canadian winter
completions season, as well as for better clarity on the weakness in U.S. operation. In the U.S. Trican’s
exposure to dry gas plays in the Southern regions has resulted in (and will continue to cause) utilization and
cost impacts that are unlikely to be resolved until Q3/12. However, with over 60% of its U.S. fleet under
contract into Q1/13, we expect a return to high utilization and more typical margins in the second-half of 2012.
We believe that Trican’s prudent adjustments to its growth plan as well as its dividend increase bode well not
only for a sustainable business model, but also one that should continue to grow in the long term. We rate
Trican BUY (prior Action List Buy) with a $23.00 price target, down from $28.00.

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(TCW, BUY, Target price: C$23.00)
Price Assumption 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Valuation 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
Oil-WTI $/b $79.45 $95.00 $105.00 $105.00 P/E x 13.9 6.5 7.8 5.5
Gas-Henry Hub $/mmbtu $4.37 $3.98 $2.60 $3.50 P/CF x 6.3 3.7 4.2 3.1
Gas-AECO C$/mcf $3.88 $3.62 $2.00 $2.90 Enterprise Value m 2,253.9 2,518.3 2,518.3 2,518.3
US$/C$ $ $0.97 $1.01 $1.00 $1.00 EV/EBITDA x 6.8 4.1 4.1 3.0
Dividend Yield % 0.7 0.7 2.0 2.0
Rig Count Assumptions 2010 2011 2012E 2013E P/BV x 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1
WCSB Wells Rig Released 12,062 12,892 11,500 12,250 P/TBV x 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.1
WCSB Drilling Rig Op Days 112,389 151,880 144,554 154,691
WCSB Drilling Rig Utilization 38% 52% 49% 52%
Cashflow Analysis 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
Income Statement 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Cash Flow from Operations m 331.7 605.7 533.6 712.5
Revenues m 1478.3 2309.6 2574.9 3087.7 Chgs in Working Cap m -139.3 -281.9 -41.5 -52.9
Net Cash Flow from Operations m 192.5 323.8 492.1 659.6
Operating Costs m 1078.4 1598.5 1852.4 2141.8 Cash Flow from Investing m -257.5 -597.7 -600.0 -400.0
% of revenues % 72.9 69.2 71.9 69.4 Cash Flow from Financing m 202.1 319.5 69.8 -44.1
Increase in Cash m 55.0 44.8 -38.1 215.5
EBITDA m 330.4 614.5 619.2 838.4
% of revenues % 22.4 26.6 24.0 27.2 Free Cash Flow m 154.3 245.7 404.0 557.8
Capital Expenditures m -284.1 -583.4 -600.0 -400.0
Depreciation & Amortization m 110.8 126.6 194.1 234.9 CFOPS 2.39 4.12 3.59 4.80
EBIT m 219.6 487.9 425.1 603.5 Capex/Cash Flow % -85.6 -96.3 -112.4 -56.1
% of revenues % 14.9 21.1 16.5 19.5 Payout Ratio % 4.1 2.4 8.3 6.2
Interest & taxes m 9.1 108.2 104.5 145.4
Non-recurring items m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Quarterly Forecast 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Revenues m 631.1 485.2 697.1 761.4
Net Income m 151.6 340.5 285.9 405.5
Reported EPS (basic) 1.10 2.34 1.95 2.76 EBITDA m 158.6 61.9 183.0 215.6
Reported EPS (diluted) 1.09 2.31 1.93 2.73 % of revenues % 25.1 12.8 26.3 28.3
Dividend Per Share 0.10 0.10 0.30 0.30 DD&A m 41.8 46.9 51.5 53.9
Operating Income m 116.8 15.0 131.6 161.7
Non-recurring items m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Basic WA Shs OS m 144.6 146.9 146.9 146.9
Diluted WA Shs OS m 153.8 154.2 154.2 154.2 Net Income m 84.7 0.2 93.7 107.2
Reported EPS (basic) 0.58 0.00 0.64 0.73
Balance Sheet 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Reported EPS (diluted) 0.57 0.00 0.63 0.72
Cash m 81.1 125.9 87.7 303.2
Debt m 102.1 400.3 422.2 422.2
Net Debt m 18.4 299.8 334.5 119.0 Revenue Growth % 18.0 15.1 5.8 9.7
Net Debt/Equity % 1.8 22.0 20.0 5.8 EBITDA Growth % 9.1 -20.9 -5.5 9.3
Debt/Equity % 10.1 29.3 25.2 20.6 EPS Growth % 1.4 -99.3 -16.1 -7.3
Total Assets m 1,451 2,217 2,627 3,088 Basic WA Shs OS m 146.9 146.9 146.9 146.9
Total Liabilities m 442 852 954 1,040 Diluted WA Shs OS m 154.2 154.2 154.2 154.2
Total S/H Equity m 1,009 1,365 1,673 2,048
Ratios Analysis 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
ROA % 12.2 18.6 11.8 14.2
ROCE % 17.4 26.8 16.7 20.5
ROE % 18.3 28.7 18.8 21.8
Net Debt/Equity % 1.8 22.0 20.0 5.8
Net Debt/EBITDA % 5.6 48.8 54.0 14.2
Book Value / Share $ 7.34 9.36 11.40 13.95
Tangible Book Value / Share $ 6.88 9.06 11.10 13.66
Source: Company Reports, TD Securities