Karina Doorley delivered the Barrington Lecture in January 2018. A link to her research paper is available here: http://www.ssisi.ie/Taxation_work_and_gender_equality_in_Ireland_DOORLEY.PDF
Karina Doorley, axation, labour force participation and gender equality in Ir...NUI Galway
Dr Karina Doorley, ESRI, Taxation, labour force participation and gender equality in Ireland presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
Motherhood Wage Penalty During the Times of TransitionOlena Nizalova
Controlling for individual unobserved heterogeneity, a number of human capital characteristics, actual time in the labor force, and selection into employment, we find that the overall motherhood wage penalty is approximately 19%, which is much lower than in the countries with similar de jure family policies and cultural norms. Contrary to the previous literature, we find that postponing first birth till after 30 increases motherhood wage penalty and that females with the lowest educational attainment suffer the most supporting earlier findings of an insurance role of education.
On 23 January, ESRI researcher Barra Roantree delivered this presentation at the Barrington lecture whilst receving the Statistical Society's Barrington prize.
A press release for the study can be found here:
https://www.esri.ie/news/irish-tax-system-does-most-in-europe-to-reduce-inequality
Fluctuations of employment across age and gender - Enrico Zaninotto, Roberto ...OECD CFE
Presentation of Enrico Zaninotto, Full Professor, Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento, Italy at the fourth meeting of the Spatial productivity Lab of the OECD Trento Centre held on 17 April 2019.
More info http://oe.cd/SPL
Karina Doorley, axation, labour force participation and gender equality in Ir...NUI Galway
Dr Karina Doorley, ESRI, Taxation, labour force participation and gender equality in Ireland presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
Motherhood Wage Penalty During the Times of TransitionOlena Nizalova
Controlling for individual unobserved heterogeneity, a number of human capital characteristics, actual time in the labor force, and selection into employment, we find that the overall motherhood wage penalty is approximately 19%, which is much lower than in the countries with similar de jure family policies and cultural norms. Contrary to the previous literature, we find that postponing first birth till after 30 increases motherhood wage penalty and that females with the lowest educational attainment suffer the most supporting earlier findings of an insurance role of education.
On 23 January, ESRI researcher Barra Roantree delivered this presentation at the Barrington lecture whilst receving the Statistical Society's Barrington prize.
A press release for the study can be found here:
https://www.esri.ie/news/irish-tax-system-does-most-in-europe-to-reduce-inequality
Fluctuations of employment across age and gender - Enrico Zaninotto, Roberto ...OECD CFE
Presentation of Enrico Zaninotto, Full Professor, Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento, Italy at the fourth meeting of the Spatial productivity Lab of the OECD Trento Centre held on 17 April 2019.
More info http://oe.cd/SPL
Labor Policy Analysis for Jobs Expansion and DevelopmentFEF Philippines
Study conducted and presented by FEF Fellow Vicente Paqueo, Aniceto Orbeta, Leonardo Lanzona and Dean Dulay for the PIDS Economic Policy Monitor Seminar, April 3, 2014. The study concludes that minimum wages and labor security have negative effects for poverty alleviation and income growth.
New research by the International Longevity Centre, the UK’s leading think tank on the impact of longevity on society, highlights deep-seated inequalities in the UK’s changing labour market and the critical condition of the current economy.
The recently publicised increase in the number of economically inactive adults due to long term sickness brings to the fore deep seated problems in the UK labour market, according to newly completed research by the International Longevity Centre and Bayes Business School (formerly Cass).
The ILC’s analysis over a 30-year period identifies four strategic concerns:
• A shortage of active workers: There are now only 1.7 economically active workers for each inactive adult aged 16+. Despite pension reforms and the removal of the default retirement age at 65, this level is the same as it was 30 years ago in 1992.
• Too many inactive workers are ill: Of the 8.9m inactive adults under 65, 2.5 million are long term sick, almost a 0.5m increase since 2019.
• Numbers in work have increased but men much less than women: The population has grown by 18% since 1992. But while the number of economically active women has increased by 30.6%, the number of economically active men has increased by only 11.3%. Meanwhile the number of women working full-time has increased by 49.2%, the number of men working part-time is up by 130%.
• The gap between jobs and skills is growing: The UK population is expected to grow to 72m by 2040. Since 1992, jobs in manufacturing have declined by 37%, while jobs in service sectors are up by 74%. Previous ILC research estimates a shortfall of 2.6m workers by 2030 – yet economic activity rates among 18-24 years olds are almost 50% of the level in 1992 exacerbating labour shortages elsewhere in the economy.
Health inequalities are a major limiting factor in preventing people from working. In the unhealthiest local authorities, like Blackpool or Hull, health expectancy is less than 57 years compared with over 70 years in the healthiest such as Wokingham. If health expectancy increased by one year this would increase working lives by 3.4 months and significantly reduce the burden on the NHS and welfare costs.
Keeping people healthy is clearly beneficial to the economy given the inequalities highlighted above. But there is a double cost represented by a loss of income plus increases in the cost of health care and sickness and disability benefits.
For example, spending on working-age health and disability benefits is over £45bn a year and accounts for about 1.6% of GDP, higher than the previous peak in 1992 when it was 1.5%. Spending on healthcare is also far greater than it needs to be.
In January 2003, the unemployment benefits increased in Finland for workers with long employment histories. The average benefit increase was 15% for the first 150 days of unemployment spell. In this paper we evaluate the effect of benefit increase on the duration of unemployment by comparing the changes in the re-employment hazard profiles between the unemployed who became eligible to the increased benefits to a control group whose benefit structure remained unchanged. We find that benefit increase reduced re-employment hazards in the beginning of the unemployment spell but that the effect disappears after the period with increased benefits expires.
The minimum wage helps support family incomes, reducing inequality and poverty, but as a slide deck from the Council of Economic Advisers shows, as the real value of the minimum wage has been allowed to erode, it has stopped serving this important purpose.
Research Professor Tomi Kyyrä's presentation at the Economic Policy Council seminar on Labour Market Reforms, 24 January 2017.
See also:
https://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/improved-jobs-numbers-will-not-be-enough-to-fix-the-problems-in-public-finances/
https://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/home/
Tom McDonnell, Medium-term trends in the Irish labour market and possibilitie...NUI Galway
Dr Tom McDonnell, NERI, Medium-term trends in the Irish labour market and possibilities for reform presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
Jason Loughrey, Household income volatility in IrelandNUI Galway
Dr Jason Loughrey, Teagasc, Household income volatility in Ireland presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
IRRV WELFARE REFORM AND BENEFITS SEMINAR: The Reality of the Social Impact of...Policy in Practice
Deven Ghelani, Policy in Practice, spoke at the IRRV Welfare Reform and Benefits Seminar – Are We Facing An Impending Disaster? on
The IRRV’s annual seminar on Welfare Reform and Benefits addressed the key issues on Welfare Reform and looked in detail at the Government’s proposal for the months and years to come.
Deven Ghelani, CEO and Founder, Policy in Practice, will delivered the following session at 10:35 am:
The Reality of the Social Impact of Welfare Reform
What will be the detailed social impact of Welfare Reform? What pressure will be placed on local authorities in delivering their statutory functions particularly in relation to housing and local taxation? How will local authorities continue to maintain these functions whilst facing up to the demands of the Governments austerity programme?
View his slides here.
Presentation by Ian Mulheirn from Oxford Economics NI at the launch of the NICVA Centre for Economic Empowerment report 'An Economic Analysis of the Living Wage in Northern Ireland' on 9 September 2014. For more information on the report, please visit http://www.nicva.org/resource/economic-analysis-living-wage-northern-ireland
CVS Surveyors- For the retail sector, the recently confirmed transitional relief scheme won’t actually provide any net relief, who so desperately need it. Mark Rigby, CEO of business rent and rates specialists CVS Surveyors, said;“The Treasury’s golden goose is getting even fatter following a £1bn windfall from last year’s business rates yield and what’s more, this year the yield is projected to be £0.6bn over budget.
On 7 November, Dr Brendan Walsh presented at the HSE's Evidence for Policy Conference on Modelling Healthcare Demand and Supply in New Residential Developments.
On Tuesday 14th November 2023, the ESRI launched 'Civic and political engagement among young adults in Ireland'.
This study looks at civic engagement (volunteering) and involvement in political activities among 20-year-olds, drawing on Growing Up in Ireland data.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/civic-and-political-engagement-among-young-adults-in-ireland
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Labor Policy Analysis for Jobs Expansion and DevelopmentFEF Philippines
Study conducted and presented by FEF Fellow Vicente Paqueo, Aniceto Orbeta, Leonardo Lanzona and Dean Dulay for the PIDS Economic Policy Monitor Seminar, April 3, 2014. The study concludes that minimum wages and labor security have negative effects for poverty alleviation and income growth.
New research by the International Longevity Centre, the UK’s leading think tank on the impact of longevity on society, highlights deep-seated inequalities in the UK’s changing labour market and the critical condition of the current economy.
The recently publicised increase in the number of economically inactive adults due to long term sickness brings to the fore deep seated problems in the UK labour market, according to newly completed research by the International Longevity Centre and Bayes Business School (formerly Cass).
The ILC’s analysis over a 30-year period identifies four strategic concerns:
• A shortage of active workers: There are now only 1.7 economically active workers for each inactive adult aged 16+. Despite pension reforms and the removal of the default retirement age at 65, this level is the same as it was 30 years ago in 1992.
• Too many inactive workers are ill: Of the 8.9m inactive adults under 65, 2.5 million are long term sick, almost a 0.5m increase since 2019.
• Numbers in work have increased but men much less than women: The population has grown by 18% since 1992. But while the number of economically active women has increased by 30.6%, the number of economically active men has increased by only 11.3%. Meanwhile the number of women working full-time has increased by 49.2%, the number of men working part-time is up by 130%.
• The gap between jobs and skills is growing: The UK population is expected to grow to 72m by 2040. Since 1992, jobs in manufacturing have declined by 37%, while jobs in service sectors are up by 74%. Previous ILC research estimates a shortfall of 2.6m workers by 2030 – yet economic activity rates among 18-24 years olds are almost 50% of the level in 1992 exacerbating labour shortages elsewhere in the economy.
Health inequalities are a major limiting factor in preventing people from working. In the unhealthiest local authorities, like Blackpool or Hull, health expectancy is less than 57 years compared with over 70 years in the healthiest such as Wokingham. If health expectancy increased by one year this would increase working lives by 3.4 months and significantly reduce the burden on the NHS and welfare costs.
Keeping people healthy is clearly beneficial to the economy given the inequalities highlighted above. But there is a double cost represented by a loss of income plus increases in the cost of health care and sickness and disability benefits.
For example, spending on working-age health and disability benefits is over £45bn a year and accounts for about 1.6% of GDP, higher than the previous peak in 1992 when it was 1.5%. Spending on healthcare is also far greater than it needs to be.
In January 2003, the unemployment benefits increased in Finland for workers with long employment histories. The average benefit increase was 15% for the first 150 days of unemployment spell. In this paper we evaluate the effect of benefit increase on the duration of unemployment by comparing the changes in the re-employment hazard profiles between the unemployed who became eligible to the increased benefits to a control group whose benefit structure remained unchanged. We find that benefit increase reduced re-employment hazards in the beginning of the unemployment spell but that the effect disappears after the period with increased benefits expires.
The minimum wage helps support family incomes, reducing inequality and poverty, but as a slide deck from the Council of Economic Advisers shows, as the real value of the minimum wage has been allowed to erode, it has stopped serving this important purpose.
Research Professor Tomi Kyyrä's presentation at the Economic Policy Council seminar on Labour Market Reforms, 24 January 2017.
See also:
https://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/improved-jobs-numbers-will-not-be-enough-to-fix-the-problems-in-public-finances/
https://www.talouspolitiikanarviointineuvosto.fi/en/home/
Tom McDonnell, Medium-term trends in the Irish labour market and possibilitie...NUI Galway
Dr Tom McDonnell, NERI, Medium-term trends in the Irish labour market and possibilities for reform presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
Jason Loughrey, Household income volatility in IrelandNUI Galway
Dr Jason Loughrey, Teagasc, Household income volatility in Ireland presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
IRRV WELFARE REFORM AND BENEFITS SEMINAR: The Reality of the Social Impact of...Policy in Practice
Deven Ghelani, Policy in Practice, spoke at the IRRV Welfare Reform and Benefits Seminar – Are We Facing An Impending Disaster? on
The IRRV’s annual seminar on Welfare Reform and Benefits addressed the key issues on Welfare Reform and looked in detail at the Government’s proposal for the months and years to come.
Deven Ghelani, CEO and Founder, Policy in Practice, will delivered the following session at 10:35 am:
The Reality of the Social Impact of Welfare Reform
What will be the detailed social impact of Welfare Reform? What pressure will be placed on local authorities in delivering their statutory functions particularly in relation to housing and local taxation? How will local authorities continue to maintain these functions whilst facing up to the demands of the Governments austerity programme?
View his slides here.
Presentation by Ian Mulheirn from Oxford Economics NI at the launch of the NICVA Centre for Economic Empowerment report 'An Economic Analysis of the Living Wage in Northern Ireland' on 9 September 2014. For more information on the report, please visit http://www.nicva.org/resource/economic-analysis-living-wage-northern-ireland
CVS Surveyors- For the retail sector, the recently confirmed transitional relief scheme won’t actually provide any net relief, who so desperately need it. Mark Rigby, CEO of business rent and rates specialists CVS Surveyors, said;“The Treasury’s golden goose is getting even fatter following a £1bn windfall from last year’s business rates yield and what’s more, this year the yield is projected to be £0.6bn over budget.
On 7 November, Dr Brendan Walsh presented at the HSE's Evidence for Policy Conference on Modelling Healthcare Demand and Supply in New Residential Developments.
On Tuesday 14th November 2023, the ESRI launched 'Civic and political engagement among young adults in Ireland'.
This study looks at civic engagement (volunteering) and involvement in political activities among 20-year-olds, drawing on Growing Up in Ireland data.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/civic-and-political-engagement-among-young-adults-in-ireland
On 20th October 2023, Selina McCoy and Eammon Carroll presented on research about post-school transitions for students with SEN at the NABMSE conference.
Tax-benefit systems face challenges in achieving their objectives. One key challenge is to ensure people have adequate incomes without creating strong financial disincentives to work.
One element which may reduce work incentives are cliff edges. Cliff edges occur where benefit entitlements and other supports are withdrawn sharply (or entirely), or where tax and social insurance liabilities increase steeply as income rises. Research has found that people adjust their behaviour to keep their income below points such as these.
This paper examines where such cliff edges exist in the Irish tax-benefit system and outlines potential reforms. PRSI and USC both have cliff edges in their design as people under a certain income are exempt. Once this threshold is passed, however, all of a person’s income becomes liable for the charges. This results in a drop in disposable income once the threshold is passed. Removing the cliff edge is possible by introducing a 0% band with those above this level only paying USC/PRSI on the income above this band (as is the case in the income tax system). Reforming the current system is possible but would mean trade-offs if the government want such changes to be revenue neutral – either more low-income people would need to be brought into the USC/PRSI net or rates must increase.
Part-time and low-income workers are negatively impacted by current rules
The social welfare system mainly avoids cliff edges through the gradual withdrawal of benefits as incomes rise. However, two cliff edges exist. The 4-in-7 rule, whereby those working part-time can only receive a Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) payment if fully unemployed for 4 days out of 7, can disincentivise employment as it means that a person working part-time, but whose hours are spread out over the week, will have no JSA entitlement. A second cliff edge exists for lower-income workers – those working at least 38 hours a fortnight can receive the in-work support, the Working Family Payment, while those just under this cut-off cannot.
Read full report on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/news/eliminating-cliff-edges-in-the-tax-benefit-system-would-help-improve-work-incentives
Despite concern among the public and policymakers about housing and healthcare in Ireland, limited information exists on the relationship between these two critical issues. New research by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), presented at the annual Budget Perspectives conference on June 15th, highlights significant variations in health outcomes and medical card coverage across supported renter, private renter, and homeowner tenure groups in Ireland. The variations we report should not be interpreted as showing causation, but it is important to identify the patterns for a variety of reasons including healthcare delivery.
Supported renters
Findings show that individuals in the supported rental sector experience the poorest health outcomes. Half of all older adults (aged 65+) in supported rental housing report poor self-reported health, in contrast to one-third of older homeowners. A decline in medical card coverage among supported renters is found, with only 74% holding a medical card in 2021 compared to 87% in 2015. Less than half of employed supported renters possess a medical card, despite facing a high risk of poverty and having incomes that qualify them for public housing assistance.
Private renters
Private renters are found to have poorer health outcomes compared to homeowners across all age groups, in combination with lower rates of medical card coverage. A quarter of private renters with a chronic illness are at risk of poverty, yet the majority lack a medical card. Additionally, over a quarter of older private renters with a chronic illness do not hold a medical card. These findings, combined with previous research demonstrating the financial benefits of possessing a medical card in reducing the burden of healthcare, highlight the significant financial risk faced by vulnerable private renters in the event of a health shock.
Read full report on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/housing-tenure-health-and-public-healthcare-coverage-in-ireland
The cost of childcare by childminders may decrease by an average of €100 per month if care provided by childminders becomes eligible for the National Childcare Scheme. Such is the finding of new research by the ESRI, presented at the annual Budget Perspectives conference on 15th June.
Prior to the introduction of the National Childcare Scheme (NCS), parents in Ireland faced some of the highest childcare costs among OECD countries. The NCS provides subsidies for users of Tusla-registered childcare. Childminder care, which is typically unregistered, is however, the second most widely used form of paid childcare in Ireland and is not currently subsidised. The National Action Plan for Childminders has committed to the extension of NCS subsidies to childminders who care for non-relative children in the childminder’s own home. The extension is expected to happen on a phased basis over a three-year period from 2024.
This research shows that extending the NCS to children cared for by childminders will cost €35-122 million per annum, depending on how well the scheme is taken up. If all current non-relative childminders register with Tusla and all eligible parents claim NCS subsidies, the reform will benefit 80,000 children by an average of around €100 per month. Children cared for by a childminder tend to live in households with relatively high disposable income and high levels of parental employment, compared to children in centre-based care. The reform will therefore benefit middle-income households more than low- or high-income households.
Subsidising the cost of childminder care is likely to have other knock-on consequences. First, it may reduce the demand for formal (centre-based) care which could alleviate some of the current shortages of this form of childcare. Second, it may increase mothers’ labour supply by reducing barriers to work. Third, wider and positive societal impacts are likely if regulation of the childminder sector improves quality of care and health and safety. However, much depends on the administrative or financial requirements placed on childminders by the increased regulation.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/extending-the-national-childcare-scheme-to-childminders-cost-and-distributional-effect
This report examines newly available data for 2021 on Northern Ireland’s goods exports and imports and equivalent data for Ireland on a detailed product and market level. This allows, for the first time, the trade structures of both economies to be investigated on a consistent basis, giving new insight into both overall international trade patterns for each economy and how cross-border trade looks within this broader context.
Read on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/structure-of-international-goods-trade-for-ireland-and-northern-ireland
Co-authors Dr Conor O'Toole and Prof Kieran McQuinn delivered a presentation on the ‘Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2023’.
Read key findings from the QEC:
https://www.esri.ie/news/underlying-domestic-growth-still-quite-strong-however-global-uncertainties-impacting-headline
📈Rising interest rates, slower-than-expected global trade and persistent inflation cloud the international outlook, but the domestic economy is growing robustly.
⬆️Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), the more accurate measure of domestic economic activity, is forecasted for growth of 3.6% this year and 4.0% in 2024
👷Labour and housing market capacity constraints may have implications for future growth.
Read the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2023 on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-summer-2023
The ESRI, in collaboration with Pobal, have launched a report examining the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living in disadvantaged areas in Ireland, as defined by the Pobal Haase Pratschke Deprivation Index. The report, titled ‘Pandemic Unemployment and Social Disadvantage in Ireland’, shows that people living in deprived areas, when compared to those living in more affluent areas, experienced greater disruption to their employment.
The Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) was a social welfare payment for employees and self-employed people who lost all their employment due to the COVID-19 public health emergency and the resulting economic impact of lockdowns and restrictions. The payment was designed as income replacement to mitigate the short-term impact on financial wellbeing that pandemic-related job interruption would cause. This research examines the economic repercussions of the pandemic and the extent to which the proportion and duration of Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) are related to area-level deprivation.
Read more key findings: https://www.esri.ie/news/people-in-disadvantaged-areas-experienced-greater-employment-disruption-during-the-covid-19
Read the report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/pandemic-unemployment-and-social-disadvantage-in-ireland
Individuals who experienced childhood poverty are much more likely to experience income poverty and material deprivation in adulthood. A new study funded by Pobal and carried out by the ESRI finds that in 2019, the likelihood of deprivation in adulthood was 35 percentage points higher among individuals who grew up in poverty when compared to individuals who grew up in ‘very good’ financial circumstances.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/intergenerational-poverty-in-ireland
Read the press release: https://www.esri.ie/news/childhood-poverty-associated-with-higher-risk-of-material-deprivation-and-income-poverty-in
This report, conducted as part of a research programme with the Pensions Council, explores indicative future paths for homeownership rates in Ireland and explores the impact in terms of income poverty in retirement.
Using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) and the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), we consider a number of scenarios to assess the possibility of renting households becoming homeowners, and then test the impact on income poverty rates if households were to continue to have rental costs into retirement.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/future-trends-in-housing-tenure-and-the-adequacy-of-retirement-income
The relationship between health and employment status continually shows that individuals who work have lower levels of illness and higher self-reported health. This study examines how self-reported health and objective measures of health (multimorbidity and mental health problems) differ across employment status and occupations among adults of working age (25-65 years). In addition, the study examines how public health coverage – medical card and GP visit card (GPVC) – and private health coverage (PHI), and lack thereof, differ across occupations. Overall, individuals not in employment have much lower rates of self-reported health and higher rates of illness. In particular, mental health problems are three times higher among unemployed individuals across all age groups. Examining workers separately, differences in health status across occupations are small. However, rates of health coverage differ considerably across occupations. In general, occupations associated with poorer health status tend to have the highest percentages of workers without a medical card/GPVC or PHI. This affects workers’ ability to access lower cost or free healthcare, including for the purpose of certified sick leave.
Read the full publication: https://www.esri.ie/publications/occupations-and-health
Ireland is an outlier among EU countries as it does not have a strong link between previous earnings and the level of payment provided to those who have recently lost their job or are on leave from work for the short- to medium-term for reasons of illness or maternity. This paper provides a historical background for earnings-related benefits in Ireland, outlines the rationale behind linking benefits with previous earnings and examines the potential impact of (re)instating them.
Existing research has shown that disability is costly and can result in an increased risk of living in poverty and a decrease in living standards. In this paper, we expand a framework of equality budgeting, previously applied from a gender perspective, to the population of households affected by disability. Using a microsimulation model linked to data from the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we show how tax-benefit policy and other market income changes between 2007 and 2019 impacted households affected by disability and households not affected by disability. We find that disposable (or post-tax and transfer) income grew for both types of households but at a faster rate for households affected by disability than households not affected by disability. This income growth was driven by two counteracting forces. On the one hand, tax and welfare policy failed to keep pace with market income growth, reducing the living standards of households affected by disability by more than households not affected by disability. On the other hand, despite having lower average wage levels, wage growth for workers affected by disability outpaced wage growth for workers not affected by disability, while the labour supply of households affected by disability also increased. Future attempts to equality-proof budgetary policy should consider that changes to welfare disproportionally affect households with disabilities.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/the-impact-of-irish-budgetary-policy-by-disability-status
On Thursday, June 16th 2022, the ESRI launched the Community Foundation for Ireland/ESRI report Energy poverty and deprivation in Ireland, a topic once again to the forefront of the policy debate given recent increases in energy prices.
This report comprises two main sections. Firstly, it charts the nature of energy poverty in Ireland since the early 1990s, providing insight into the socioeconomic groups likely to experience either energy-related deprivation or high energy costs. Secondly, this report considers recent increases in energy prices to identify how this has affected the number of households experiencing energy poverty. The options policymakers may employ to counter energy poverty are considered.
Read the full report on our website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/energy-poverty-and-deprivation-in-ireland
Read the accompanying press release on our website: https://www.esri.ie/news/energy-poverty-at-highest-recorded-rate
Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter/Publication and Event notifications: https://www.esri.ie/sign-up-for-the-esri-newsletter
On Monday, June 20th 2022, the ESRI launched the report 'Disrupted transitions? Young adults and the COVID-19 pandemic'.
The report was conducted as part of a research programme with DCEDIY, draws on the Growing Up in Ireland COVID-19 survey to document the disruption to education, employment and day-to-day activities experienced by young adults during the pandemic and the consequences for their mental health. The report was launched by the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth, Dr Roderic O'Gorman, TD.
The research shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in poorer mental health among young adults. Using data from the Growing Up in Ireland COVID-19 survey, carried out in December 2020, the findings show that four-in-ten 22-year-old men and over half (55 per cent) of 22-year-old women were classified as depressed. These were much higher figures than two years previously when 22 per cent of men and 31 per cent of women were depressed.
Poorer mental health during the pandemic reflected the disruption to young adults’ employment, education and day-to-day activities. Just before the pandemic hit, most (63 per cent) of these 22-year-olds were in full-time education or training and so shifted to remote learning. The vast majority had the electronic devices they needed for remote learning and live online lectures/classes were offered by their institutions. However, around half did not have access to adequate broadband and a quiet place to study, and less than one third (30 per cent) received regular feedback on their work. Over half (57 per cent) found it difficult to study while learning remotely and this was linked to a greater risk of depression. In contrast, those who had more interaction with their institution and the resources they needed to study fared better.
Over half (57 per cent) of those working (either full-time or while studying) when the pandemic hit lost their job. Only one-in-six (16 per cent) of the young adults started working remotely or increased the hours they worked from home. Having higher Leaving Certificate grades and being in a professional/managerial job at age 20 appeared to act as some protection against job loss when the pandemic began. Receiving the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) served to shelter these young adults from financial strain following employment loss. Losing a full-time job was linked to poorer mental health, especially for young men.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/disr...
Read the accompanying press release on our website: https://www.esri.ie/news/the-covid-19...
Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter/Publication and Event notifications: https://www.esri.ie/sign-up-for-the-e...
On Tuesday 7 June 2022, the ESRI hosted an event titled 'Application of ethical principles for the design of Just Transition policies'.
Miguel Angel Tovar (ESRI) presented a presentation titled 'The cost of inaction'.
See more details on our website here: https://www.esri.ie/events/virtual-conference-application-of-ethical-principles-for-the-design-of-just-transition
This report is the first study to systematically compare the education systems in Ireland and Northern Ireland from primary to tertiary levels. It draws on international and national survey data, administrative data, interviews with policy stakeholders and input from a consultation with stakeholders to document commonalities and differences between the two systems. It is hoped that the study findings will provide insights for future policy learning in both jurisdictions.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/a-north-south-comparison-of-education-and-training-systems-lessons-for-policy
On 11 April, Prof Frances McGinnity presented the findings from our latest report titled 'Origin and integration: Housing and family among migrants in the 2016 Irish Census'.
Read the full publication: https://www.esri.ie/publications/origin-and-integration-housing-and-family-among-migrants-in-the-2016-irish-census
For many commentators, the litmus test of integration is how well the children of migrants are faring. This report investigates whether children born in Ireland to migrant parents differ from children with Irish-born parents in terms of their English language development at three, five and nine years of age, and their self-concept at nine years. It draws on rich data from the ’08 cohort of Growing up in Ireland which collects information on the children, their families, their schools, their skills and well-being in the first nine years of their lives.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/children-of-migrants-in-ireland-how-are-they-faring
Watch the video to accompany this presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmgzYXMxNhY
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1. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications
@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Taxation, work and gender
equality in Ireland
DATE
January 2018
AUTHOR
Karina Doorley
Barrington Lecture
2. Introduction
Removing barriers to work becoming an important policy objective
for most governments
Population ageing, falling fertility & stagnating labour force
participation are threatening fiscal budgets across the EU (Dolls et
al, 2017)
In Ireland, labour force participation rate of women is 64%
compared to 77% for men
Increasing female labour force participation is one policy route to
increasing labour supply
Can also increase well-being and GDP, tackle the gender wage and
pension gap, reduce female poverty and reduce risk of victimisation
and violence (OECD, 2012 ; Bowlus & Seitz, 2006; Findlay & Wright,
1996)
3. Introduction
Barriers or disincentives to work can take two forms
Low payoff to work
In-work income vs. out-of-work income
High fixed costs of going to work
Childcare
Commuting
Care of elderly relatives
The tax and welfare system can affect both but I will focus mainly
on the payoff to work
4. Introduction
Joint taxation allows the primary earner in a couple to use the
allowances and bands of the lower or secondary earner
increases the Marginal Effective Tax Rate (METR) of the secondary
earner
Women are more likely to be the secondary earner and are
typically more responsive to disincentives to work than men
(Blundell, 2014).
Large disincentive effects of joint taxation on hours of work of
married women in the US & 17 EU countries (Bick & Fuchs-
Schündeln , 2017) .
The trend in recent decades in the EU has been a move towards
individual taxation.
The European Commission’s Work-Life Balance Package (2017)
advocates removing fiscal disincentives for secondary earners,
including joint taxation systems.
5. Introduction
Hypothetical switches from joint to individual taxation have been
evaluated for Ireland (Callan et al, 2009), France (Kabátek et al,
2014), Germany (Decoster and Haan, 2011) & Luxembourg
(Doorley, 2016), finding that the participation rate of married
women could increase by 1-9 ppt.
The effect of actual policy changes has also been evaluated for the
UK (Roantree, 2018); the US (Lalumia, 2008), Sweden (Selin, 2014)
and Canada (Crossley and Jeon, 2007) with similar findings.
6. This paper
This paper estimates the effect of the partial individualisation of
the income tax system in 2000 on the labour supply of married
women
Did the policy achieve its aim of increasing the labour supply of
spouses?
The results of this will be useful in informing policy in the future
Potential for any further extension of individualisation should also take
fixed cost of work into account
Effects of individualisation on other important outcomes such as the
distribution of income left for future work
8. Employment rate of 20-64 year olds
Source: Eurostat.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EU 15 men
Ireland men
UK men
EU 15 women
Ireland women
UK women
9. Barriers to secondary work in Ireland
Historical context (Russell et al, 2017)
Marriage bar of 1932, repealed in 1973
EU driven equality legislation (Anti-Discrimination Pay Act 1974 and
Employment Equality Act 1998)
Marriage bar in UK lifted in 1944, female employment encouraged in
the context of WWII
Participation Tax Rate (PTR) of secondary earners: 14-35% but close
to 100% when childcare costs are accounted for
Marginal Effective Tax Rate (METR) of female secondary earners of
40% (Rastrigina & Verashchagina, 2015)
10. Partial individualisation of income tax
2000-2002
1980-1999: system of income splitting, whereby married couples
could reduce their tax bill compared to cohabiting couples by
sharing allowances and rate bands between partners
December 1999: Minister for Finance announced the “radical
change of moving to individualisation of the standard rate band
over this and the next two Budgets.”
Considerable opposition to this reform which was thought to penalise
women who chose to stay at home
Partial reform occurred and this “hybrid” system is still in place
11. Partial individualisation of income tax
2000-2002
1999 2000 2001 2002
Standard tax rate 24% 22% 20% 20%
Top tax rate 46% 44% 42% 42%
Standard rate band for singles 17,800 21,600 25,395 28,000
Standard rate band for one earner couples 35,600 35,600 36,822 37,000
Standard rate band for two earner couples 35,600 43,200 50,790 56,000
Personal tax credit (standard rate) -transferable 1,280 1,313 1,397 1,520
Employee tax credit (standard rate) - non-transferable 305 279 508 660
Source: www.revenue.ie. Monetary values in €
100%
transferability of
standard rate
band
32%
transferability
of standard
rate band
12. METR of secondary earner
Figure 1 Marginal effective tax rate of secondary earner in a simplified tax-benefit system in Ireland
in 1999; in a counterfactual 1999 system with partial individualisation of the standard rate band and in
2000. Primary earner works 40 hours per week and earns the year-specific median male hourly wage.
Secondary earner works 0-40 hours per week and earns the year-specific median female hourly wage.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
MarginalEffectiveTaxRate
Hours of work
1999
1999 + ind. reform
2000
13. PTR of secondary earner
Figure 2 Participation tax rate of secondary earner in a simplified tax-benefit system in Ireland in
1999; in a counterfactual 1999 system with partial individualisation of the standard rate band and in
2000. Primary earner works 40 hours per week and earns the year-specific median male hourly wage.
Secondary earner works 0-40 hours per week and earns the year-specific median female hourly wage.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50
ParticipationTaxRate
Hours of work
1999
1999 + ind. reform
2000
15. Data
Living in Ireland survey data 1995-2001 (European Community
Household Panel)
5 years of pre-reform data and two years of post-reform data
Sample of 20-60 year olds.
Outcomes of interest
Employment
Hours of work
Hours of unpaid childcare
16. Method
Difference-in-Differences framework compares change in outcomes
for those affected by the reform (treatment group) to change in
outcomes for those unaffected by reform (control group)
17. Method
Treatment group is married women
Most secondary earners are women
Control group is
single women (unaffected by policy change) or
married men (affected by policy change but unlikely to respond)
Assumptions
Pre-treatment trends are similar for treatment and control group
No other policy change which affects treatment and control group
differentially
18. Pre-treatment trends.4.5.6.7.8.9
employed
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
Married men Single women
Married women
employed
10203040
hours
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
Married men Single women
Married women
hours
020406080
childcare_hours
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
Married men Single women
Married women
childcare_hours
Figure: The evolution of employment, hours of work and hours of unpaid childcare (LII data)
19. Difference-in-Differences results:
employment and hours of work
Employment
Treatment effect 0.04 0.07 *** 0.06 *** 0.07 *** 0.06 *** 0.06 ***
(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
Controls No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes No No Yes
R squared 0.025 0.1853 0.1886 0.1537 0.2563 0.2591
N 17,448 17,448 17,448 22,231 22,231 22,231
Hours of work
Treatment effect 1.26 2.11 ** 2.07 ** 1.79 ** 1.77 ** 1.77 **
(1.07) (0.96) (0.96) (0.79) (0.76) (0.76)
Controls No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes No No Yes
R squared 0.0475 0.2234 0.2247 0.2932 0.3568 0.3581
N 17,448 17,448 17,448 22,231 22,231 22,231
Control group = single women. Control group = married men
Sample is aged between 20-60. The treatment effect is equivalent to β? in equation 1. Marital status is self-
defined. Extra controls include age, age squared, post-secondary qualification, no. of children, any children
under 12 and predicted wage. The time trend is a series of year dummies.
20. Difference-in-Differences results:
childcare hours
(1) (2) (3)
Hours of childcare
Treatment effect -3.11 -3.23 * -3.24 *
(1.98) (1.87) (1.87)
Controls No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes
R squared 0.3578 0.4285 0.4288
N 15,122 15,122 15,122
Treatment group = married women with children. Control group =
married men with children.
Sample is aged between 20-60. The treatment effect is equivalent to β? in equation
1. Marital status is self-defined. Extra controls include age, age squared, post-
secondary qualification, no. of children, any children under 12 and predicted
wage. The time trend is a series of year dummies.
22. Other policy changes
Changes in tax rates & allowances
Very small effects on METR and PTR
Expansion of Family Income Supplement in 2000
No effect on labour supply of married men or women (Bargain &
Doorley, 2011)
Introduction of National Minimum Wage of £4.40 per hour
Negligible employment effects (O’Neill et al, 2006)
Restrict sample to those with predicted wages well above the NMW (>
£5.50)
23. DiD results for those above NMW
Employment
Treatment effect 0.08 ** 0.06 ** 0.06 * 0.04 ** 0.05 *** 0.05 ***
(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
Controls No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes No No Yes
R squared 0.04 0.18 0.18 0.14 0.23 0.24
N 13497 13497 13497 20793 20793 20793
Hours of work
Treatment effect 2.88 ** 2.29 ** 2.18 * 1.06 1.46 * 1.48 **
(1.25) (1.16) (1.16) (0.81) (0.77) (0.77)
Controls No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes No No Yes
R squared 0.08 0.23 0.23 0.28 0.34 0.34
N 13497 13497 13497 20793 20793 20793
Hours of childcare
Treatment effect -2.58 -3.26 * -3.28 *
(2.02) (1.91) (1.91)
Controls No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes
R squared 0.36 0.43 0.43
N 14274 14274 14274
Control group = single women. Control group = married men
Sample is aged between 20-60 with a predicted hourly wage in excess of £5.50 in 2000 prices. The treatment effect is
equivalent to β? in equation 1. Marital status is self-defined. Extra controls include age, age squared, post-secondary
qualification, no. of children, any children under 12 and predicted wage. The time trend is a series of year dummies. The
treatment group for the childcare hours model is married women with children and the control group is married men
with children
25. Summary
The partial individualisation of the income tax system in 2000
increased the employment rate of married women by 5-6
percentage points and the weekly hours of work by 2 per week.
Comparable to Callan et al (2009) for Ireland; Crossley & Jeon (2007)
for Canada and Selin (2014) for Sweden
It also reduced the number of hours of unpaid childcare being
performed by married women with children (by 3 per week)
Effective at reaching its aim
to increase the incentives for spouses to join the labour force
26. Future policy directions
Potential for any further individualisation of the taxation system
needs to consider
Implications for income distribution
Cost
Paths to revenue neutrality
Addressing fixed costs of work as a complementary reform likely to
be necessary
Child & elderly care
Commuting costs
etc
28. Selected labour market statistics
IE UK EU
Average weekly hours of work 32 32 34
Unadjusted gender pay gap 14 21 17
Adjusted gender pay gap 17 12 -
Marginal Effective Tax Rate (METR) of
secondary earners with young children 43 33 33
Female/male income ratio of elderly 0.84 0.84 0.84
Labour supply elasticities of married women 0.40 0.11 0.27
METR for 2012 taken from Rastrigina & Verashchagina (2015). Labour supply
elasticities for 1998-2005 period from (Bargain et al, 2013). All other statistics for 2016
from Eurostat.
29. Summary statistics
Women Men
Women Before After Difference Before After Difference
Employed 0.50 0.58 0.08 *** 0.65 0.66 0.01
Weekly hours of work (incl. zeros) 16.17 18.49 2.32 *** 29.11 29.06 -0.05
Weekly hours of childcare (incl. zeros) 35.18 30.72 -4.46 *** 3.74 3.72 -0.02
Part-time employment 0.18 0.21 0.03 *** 0.05 0.04 -0.01 ***
Full-time employment 0.33 0.37 0.04 *** 0.60 0.62 0.02 ***
Age 38.66 39.71 1.05 *** 36.62 37.52 0.9 ***
Post-secondary qualification 0.32 0.35 0.03 *** 0.26 0.28 0.02 ***
No. of children 1.21 1.04 -0.17 *** 1.03 0.87 -0.16 ***
Children under 12 (0/1) 0.43 0.39 -0.04 *** 0.35 0.31 -0.04 ***
Hourly wage of workers 7.61 8.58 0.97 *** 9.26 10.49 1.23 ***
Predicted hourly wage for all 7.13 8.17 1.04 *** 9.07 10.35 1.28 ***
Married 0.68 0.67 -0.01 0.60 0.60 0
Primary earner (married individuals) 0.04 0.03 -0.01 *** 0.73 0.73 0
Secondary earner (married individuals) 0.69 0.67 -0.02 *** 0.03 0.03 0
Observations 13009 5424 15385 6324
Sample is aged 20-60 and statistics are weighted using individual weights. The before period is years 1995-1999. The After period is years
2000-2001. Statistical significance is indicated by * p<0.1 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01"
30. Alternative treatment & control
groups
.4.5.6.7.8.9
employed
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
Secondary Primary
employed
10203040
hours
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
Secondary Primary
hours
1020304050
childcare_hours
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
year
Secondary Primary
childcare_hours
31. Alternative treatment & control
groups
(1) (2) (3)
Employment
Treatment effect 0.06 *** 0.06 *** 0.06 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
Controls No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes
R squared 0.1575 0.2663 0.2689
N 15,484 15,484 15,484
Hours of work
Treatment effect 1.91 * 2.02 ** 2.02 **
(1.01) (0.94) (0.94)
Controls No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes
R squared 0.2777 0.3616 0.3625
N 15,484 15,484 15,484
Childcare hours
Treatment effect -4.00 ** -4.04 ** -4.05 **
(2.03) (1.72) (1.72)
Controls No Yes Yes
Time trend No No Yes
R squared 0.214 0.4244 0.4249
N 15,484 15,484 15,484
Treatment group = secondary earners. Control group = primary earners.
Sample is aged between 20-60. The treatment effect is equivalent to β? in equation 1. Marital status
is self-defined. Extra controls include age, age2 squared, post-secondary qualification, no. of
children, any children under 12 and predicted wage. The time trend is a series of year dummies.