The 2011 census in Estonia showed a population decline of 5.5% over the last decade. The population fell by 76,000 people to 1,294,236, with 32,000 due to negative natural growth and 22,000 to registered emigration. The age structure shifted towards an older population, with those under 14 declining to 15% from 18% while those over 65 increased to 18% from 15%. However, the working age population from 15-64 remained at 67%. Most areas saw population declines except for Harju county near Tallinn and Tartu county, which both saw small increases.

1. Flash comment: Estonia
Economic commentary by Economic Research Department June 1, 2012
Census shows population decline by 5.5% during the last decade
Population by age structure, thousands According to preliminary data calculations by Statistics Estonia of
the census conducted in 2011, there are 1,294,236 permanent
85+
80-84 2011 residents in Estonia. The figure was in accordance with previous
75-79 2000 annual estimates and thus provided no major surprises.
70-74
65-69 Compared to the previous census conducted in 2000, the number
60-64 of permanent residents has decreased by ca 76,000 or 5.5%. Out
55-59
50-54
of this, the negative natural increase has accounted for 32,000 and
45-49 registered migration for 22,000 people. The size and impact of the
40-44 non-registered emigration is yet to be calculated and analysed.
35-39
30-34 Changes in the age structure correspond to the trends of an aging
25-29
20-24
population – the share of young population (up to 14 year-olds) has
15-19 declined from 18% to 15% while that of elderly (65+) has increased
10-14 from 15% to 18%. However, as a positive indicator, the share of
5-9 working age population (15-64) has remained the same – 67%.
0-4
- 30 60 90 120 The largest changes in the age structure can be seen among
young persons – in 2000, there was a large cohort of children born
Natural increase and net migration during the baby boom in the late 1980s. The negative natural
1,000 increase seen during the last decade has decreased that cohort
0
considerably. However, the cohort of the youngest age group (0-4)
is bigger due to an increase in births during the recent years.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-1,000
The geographical structure of population shows that the number of
-2,000 permanent residents has increased only in the Harju county (by
5.1%; consisting of neighbouring municipalities of Tallinn) and in
-3,000
the county of Tartu (by 0.5%). The largest declines, on the other
-4,000 hand, were seen in the southern and eastern areas of Estonia. The
-5,000
number of permanent residents in Tallinn has declined by 2%.
natural increase
-6,000
Compared to Latvia and Lithuania, the population has declined
net migration
much less in Estonia during the last decade. This is affected by two
main factors. First, the negative natural increase seen in all three
Population decline in the Baltic countries has been much smaller in Estonia (even reaching slightly
countries, 2001 (2000 in Estonia) - 2011 positive side in 2010). Second, the structure and type of emigration
0% has been different – instead of emigrating permanently, many
-2%
Estonia Latvia Lithuania people working abroad in the neighbouring Nordic countries
account as pendulum migration and thus remain permanent
-4%
residents in Estonia. Also, total emigration has been smaller due to
-6%
quicker structural changes in the economy during the last decade
-8% which has lessened the wish to emigrate for employment reasons.
-10% Statistics Estonia will start to publish more detailed census data on
-12% population and housing in December and continue throughout the
-14% next year.
-16% Elina Allikalt
Senior Economist
elina.allikalt@swedbank.ee
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reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in this publication.
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