This document summarizes a study examining first-year biology students' understanding of hypotheses. The researchers developed an instrument to measure student conceptions across epistemic and heuristic dimensions. Initial results found variation in students' views of hypotheses as based on facts versus predictions, and as testable statements versus guesses. Pedagogical interventions were implemented during the semester to help students develop more expert-like views of hypotheses as testable predictions based on observations. Post-testing will determine if students' conceptions changed to reflect disciplinary norms of evidentiary reasoning and controlling experimental variables.

1. Name of presentation Month2008
Student understanding of the
critical features of an hypothesis:
variation across epistemic and
heuristic dimensions
K. Zimbardia, J.H.F. Meyera, P. Chunduria,
C.E. Taylorb, P.M. Rossc, V. Tzioumisb, and L.J. Llukaa
aUniversity of Queensland
bUniversity of Sydney
cUniversity of Western Sydney
Australia

2. Reform in science education
Science graduates must be able to deal with
novel, complex, unstructured problems
(Brew 2010)
Scientific thinking
Hypothetico-deductive reasoning (Dunbar and Fugelsang 2005)
Controlling variables (Kuhn and Dean 2005)
Move to inquiry-based practical curricula
Focussing on the role of hypotheses in scientific
investigation (Elliott et al 2010)

3. Hypotheses as
threshold concept in biology
Taylor (2008)
surveyed undergraduate and postgraduate students, and
academic staff, for which biological concepts are most
difficult to learn:
“Most saw an understanding of [hypothesis development,
experimental design and data analysis] as a major
change in the way they thought about these areas in
biology, and such thinking required the integration of
[other] concepts…involved a change which was
transformational, irreversible and integrational...”

4. Instrumentation
900 first year biology students provided
responses to the open ended question:
“What is a hypothesis?”
Development of an psychometric instrument
47 item trial survey
Items represented the diversity of student responses
Grounded in the language used by students
I think an hypothesis is…
A guess of what you think is going to happen
A theory to be tested
Rated on 5 point scale from Definitely Agree to Definitely
Disagree

5. Testing the instrument
800/839 first year biology students
First practical class of second semester
Students had completed some preliminary activities
Background notes introduced hypotheses as testable,
predictive statements
Pre-test and first practical class required students to critique
example hypotheses
Correlation matrix analysis used to determine factor
grouping of items
Conceptual analysis used to determine dimensions
of variation in conceptions across the cohort

6. Conceptual analysis
An educated testable guess based on an
observation
A prediction based on observations
An inference based on observations which
may be tested experimentally
A prediction, based on observation, of the
mechanisms of a phenomenon

7. Epistemological variation:
3 critical features
Hypotheses based on facts
A proposal intended to explain observations and facts
A proposal of a fact
Hypotheses as predictions
The prediction of what is expected to occur in an
experiment
A guess of what you think is going to happen
Hypotheses as testable statements
A testable idea that forms the basis of an experiment
A testable statement that proposes a model

8. Developing epistemic maturity
From concrete facts to increasing uncertainty
Known facts -> Predicting what should happen -> Testing
King and Kitchner (2002) describe similar levels of
certainty and uncertainty in personal epistemologies
Pre-reflective thinking
• Knowledge is certain
• Authorities are sources of facts
Quasi-reflective thinking
• Some degree of uncertainty
• Evidence important in supporting knowledge claims
• Some degree of evidence evaluation (strong, relevant)
Reflective thinking
• A ranges of evidences used to determine a tentative
judgementfor a particular context

9. Heuristic variation:
2 critical features
Hypotheses based on observations
An educated testable guess based on an observation
A prediction based on observations
Control of variables and univariate hypotheses
A testable statement that preferably has only one testing
variable
A testable prediction based on one variable

10. Developing disciplinary heuristics
Working with evidence
Evidence is important, but what evidence?
Moving from quasi-reflective to reflective thinking
Judging & synthesising different types of evidence
Learning disciplinary-specific rules for judging evidence
E.g. Controlling variables
• Sound reasoning (Kuhn and Dean 2005)
• Biological experiments – baselines and standards
(Baker and Dunbar 2000)

11. Where are students on these dimension at
the beginning of semester

12. Pedagogical interventions &
Instrument refinement
How do conceptions change across the
semester?
Determine the impact of a semester of practice in
formulating, testing and receiving feedback on
hypotheses and experimental designs
Additional items to unpack understandings of
discipinary heuristics
Is biology and biomedical science in particular especially
amenable to multivariate thinking?

13. Acknowledgements
& Contact details
Collaborators
Erik Meyer
Prasad Chunduri and Lesley Lluka
Charolotte Taylor Pauline Ross & Vicky Tzioumis
Thank you to our 1st year students in BIOL1040
Kirsten Zimbardi
k.zimbardi@uq.edu.au
University of Queensland, Australia

14. References
Baker, L. M. and Dunbar, K. 2000. Experimental design heuristics for scientific discovery: The use of baseline and known controls. International
Journal of Human Computer Studies 53: 335-349.
Brew, A. 2010. Imperatives and challenges in integrating research and teaching. Higher Education Research and Development 29(2): 139-150.
Dunbar, K. and Fugelsang, J. 2005. Scientific Thinking and Reasoning. The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning. Morrison, H. a.
New York, NY, Cambridge University Press: 705-725.
Elliott, K., Boin, A., Irving, H., Johnson, E. and Galea, V. 2010. Teaching scientific inquiry skills: A handbook for bioscience educators in
Australian universities. Sydney, Australia, Australian Learning and Teaching Council.
King, P. M. and Kitchener, K. S. 2002. The reflective judgment model: Twenty years of research on epistemic cognition. Personal epistemology:
The psychology of beliefs about knowledge and knowing. Hofer, B. K. and Pintrich, P. R.: 37-61.
Kuhn, D. and Dean, D. 2005. Is developing scientific thinking all about learning to control variables? Psychological Science 16(11): 866-870.
Taylor, C. E. 2008. Threshold concepts, troublesome knowledge and ways of thinking and practising: Can we tell the difference in biology? .
Threshold concepts within the disciplines. Land, R., Meyer, J. H. F. and Smith, J. Rotterdam, Sense Publishers.
Taylor, C. E. and Meyer, J. H. F. 2010. The testable hypothesis as a threshold concept for biology students. Threshold concepts and
transformational learning. Meyer, J. H. F., Land, R. and Baillie, C. Rotterdam, Sense Publishers.
Taylor, C. E., Meyer, J. H. F., Tzioumis, V. and Ross, P. 2012. Using a mixed methods approach to explore student understandi ng of hypotheses
in biology. 4th Biennial Threshold Concepts Conference. Trinity College Dublin.
Taylor, C. E., Ross, P., Hughes, C., Lutze-Mann, L., Whitaker, N. and Tzioumis, V. 2011. Threshold concepts in biology. Strawberry Hills, NSW:
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