1. Structural Change in Indian Economy
as reflected by
Use of Statistics
Prof. Nand Dhameja
IIPA
20/10/10

2. Structural Change in Indian Economy:
Coverage
Indian Economy Changes Over the Years
 International Trade
 Saving & investment rate
 Infrastructure Investment
 Private Sector Share & disinvestment
 School Education: Private Share
Role of Statistics

3. Structural Change over the years
International trade to GDP increased
over the years ↑
Saving & Investment Rates ↑
Investment in infrastructure ↑
Private sector share in Plan Investment ↑

4. Structural Change over the years
1980 2009
Public Sector Profit to Total
Corporate Profit
70% 35%
Private Sector Profit to Total
Corporate Profit
30% 65%
Public Sector Investment
Total Plan Investment
50% 20%
Private Sector Investment
Total Plan Investment
50% 80%
Addition of Power Generating
capacity by Private Sector
15%
begining of Plan
50 %
now

5. Structural Changes over the years
 Public Sector still dominates in services like, Banking,
Insurance, Energy, Transport
 New Areas opened to Private Sector  Airports; Ports;
Highways
 Disinvestment Realisation Rs 50,000 cr. till 2004-05;
Target current year Rs. 40,000 cr.
 Fifteen PSUs Privatised with Disinvestment proceeds
Rs. 11,500 cr.
 Policy of Free Pricing for oil

6. Infrastructure Investment Estimates
(Rs. Lakh Crore)
XI Plan
( 2007-8-- 11-12)
X Plan
(2002-3-- 6-7)
Total 20.06
(7.53%)
8.8
(5.63%)
State Sector
Private
Sector
14.06
6.00
7.20
1.60

7. Infrastructure Investment : Sector wise (Rs. Crore) 2006- 07
Prices
X Plan % XI Plan %
Electricity
Roads & Bridges
Telecomm.
Rlys. (inl. MRTS)
Irrigation (incl.
Watershed)
Water Supply &
Sanitation
291,850 33.1
144,892 16.5
123,411 14.0
119,658 13.6
111,503 12.7
64,803 7.4
616,526 30.4
311,816 15.4
267,001 13.2
258,001 12.7
223,131 11.0
199,127 9.8

8. Infrastructure Investment : Sector wise
(Rs. Crore) 2006- 07 Prices
X Plan % XI Plan %
Ports 4096 0.5 73941 3.6
Airports 6771 0.8 34748 1.7
Storage 4819 0.6 22378 1.1
Gas 8713 1.0 20500 1.0
880516 100 2027169 100

9. National Income Estimates:
Sector-wise %
Services 54
Manufacturing & Mining 24
Agriculture 22

10. Saving Rate % of GDP
93-04 99-00 01-02 07-08 09 -10
Saving %
GDP-Total
22.5 22.3 24.0 32.0 34.0
Household
Sector
18.4 19.8 22,5 24 26
Private
Sector
3.5 3.7 4.0 4.0 4
Public
Sector
0.6 (-) 1.2 (-)2.5 4.0 4

11. Expenditure % GDP
1990-91 2006-07
Governments
Expense % GDP
(Center Share
States Share)
35
(54
46)
37
(44
56)

12. School Education: Private Sector Share
 Private sector share in School Education
2006: (no. in Per cent)
 Higher Secondary Schools
& Junior Colleges 30.05
 High Schools 27.15
 Upper-primary schools 6.75
 Primary schools 3.19
 Pre-primary schools 5.15

13. Elementary Education
Elementary Education for all
Right to Education Act 2009
promises free education to
children 6 to 12 years
India becomes one amongst 139
nations that legally protects right
of children to basic education

14. Elementary Education
Elementary Education for all Children
between 6 to 12 years
 Estimated additional Costs :
Four alternatives
 Scenario I Rs. 426,259 cr
 Scenario II Rs. 393,307 cr
 Scenario III Rs. 346,209 cr
 Scenario IV Rs. 321,196 cr

15. PPP & Elementary Education: Alternatives
 Public-private partnerships: option 1-Charge
from those who can afford
 For below poverty line state to pay 30%
 Public-private partnerships: option 2-Public
funding of capital costs and operating costs
met from fees or other revenues generated
 Sweet soft loan to private partner for capital cost
 private partner permitted to use premises for
revenue generating during off-times

16. PPP & Elementary Education: Alternatives-Contd.
Public-private partnerships: option 3-
Contracting out the public schools to
corporation
Public-private partnerships: option 4-
public funding for private schools
Public-private partnerships: option 5-
Tax Policy & Education Funding

17. PPP & Elementary Education: Alternatives-Contd.
Public-private partnerships: option 6-
Existing Private school to share the
proposed fund requirement
Public-private partnerships: option 7-
providing parents with a choice

18. Elementary Education : certain Facts
One-third children cannot read & India has
largest number of illiterates, about 35 % of
110 cr
By 2020, this to shoot up to 50 % still of
larger population (UN Estimates)

19. School Education
Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) launched a
decade ago in 21 states to ensure
elementary education by 2010
However, facts are different Surveys
indicate, one-sixth Indian still unaware of
Right to Free Education

20. Urbanisation in China- Social Change
Population  1300m
% in Cities  33%
% in cities in 2020  67%
Life Expectancy  73 yr
Literacy Rate present  91%
Literacy Rate 1985  34%
Water Basins declared highly polluted:
one/third
 Environment & health problems likely cost:
$54b pa

21. Statistics: Uses & Misuses
 Statistics is a science of collection, organising
and interpretation of data
 Adds to Quality, reliability to the analysis &
makes it logical, dependable and verifiable
 Misuses:
 For a drunken man, it is a lamp-post used for support
rather than illumination
 There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and
statistics
 Statistics will prove anything, even the truth

22. Thank You
Good Day