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Strategies and Advantages
          of Software Livre In An
              Economic Crisis


                         by
                 Jon quot;maddogquot; Hall
                 Executive Director
                 Linux International



Copyright 2008
Who Am I....
                 ....and Why Should You
                          Listen?
            ●    Thirty-nine+ years in the computer industry
                 –   Mainframes 5 years
                 –   Unix since 1977
                 –   Linux since 1994
            ●    Programmer, Systems Engineer, Product
                 Manager, QA, Technical Marketing, Educator,
                 Consultant
            ●    Large systems to very small ones
            ●    Vendor and a customer
Copyright 2008
The World Is In Economic
                    Crisis!
        ●    Financial Institutions failing
        ●    Large Manufacturing and Retail
             companies failing
                 –   “Big Three” auto
                 –   Sharper Image
        ●    Companies laying off people

    Obama keeps talking about SMBs and “spreading the wealth”



Copyright 2008
Small and Medium
                           Business
         ●       In USA:
                 –   Small business – less than 100 employees
                 –   Medium business – less than 500
                     employees
         ●       Globally, 40-50% of all GDP is SMB
         ●       Major advantages:
                 –   employment potential and low capital cost
                 –   innovation
                 –   higher growth rate
Copyright 2008
More USA Statistics on
                          SMB
         ●       99.7 per cent of all employer firms
         ●       50% of all private sector employees
         ●       Almost 45% of private sector payroll
         ●       60-80 per cent of all new jobs
         ●       40 per cent of high tech employees
         ●       52% are home-based
         ●       97.3% of all known exporters
         ●       28.9% of all goods exported
Copyright 2008
Survival Rate of SMBs
         ●       66% more than two years
         ●       44% more than four years
         ●       31% more than seven years




        SMBs employ people, make products, create services!



Copyright 2008
Are Large Companies the
              Only Ones Sustainable?
                           Sure! Just ask....
         ●       Apollo
         ●       Wang
         ●       Data General
         ●       Digital Equipment Corporation
         ●       Compaq Computer Corporation
         ●       Enron
         ●       General Motors
Copyright 2008
Large Business
         ●       Monopoly potential
                 –   Hard to have competition
                 –   When they fail, they fail badly
                      ●   “Big Three” car makers
                      ●   Wall Street
                 –   Government often “held ransom”
                 –   Consumers often “held ransom”



Copyright 2008
Computing In The
                           Beginning
         ●       Hardware expensive, computers few
                 –   Software hand-tailored, from beginning
                 –   Not “computer science....computer black
                     magic”
                 –   “Punched cards and FORTRAN all you
                     need”
         ●       1980s – Hardware was becoming less
                 expensive
                 –   Software was manufactured
         ●       2007+ Hardware is incredibly cheap
Copyright 2008
                 –   Software should be tailored again
The Economics of Mass
                        Production
         ●       Meets 70-90% needs of 70-80% of
                 market
                 –   .70 x .70 = .49, less than half!
         ●       Create commodity products
                 –   What is a commodity?
                      ●   Corn?
                      ●   Cars?
                      ●   Money?
                 –   Are business situations a commodity?

Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole




Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole




Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole




Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole




Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole




Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole




Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole
         ●       Source Code allows you to sand the
                 corners of the square peg




Copyright 2008
Imagine Trying to Fill a
                       Round Hole
         ●       Proprietary software is a square peg
         ●       No matter how many square pegs you
                 use, you can never really fill the hole
         ●       Source Code allows you to sand the
                 corners of the square peg




Copyright 2008
Sometimes I Speak To
                       Hundreds
                  Of Businesspeople....
         ●       Who has ever had a problem with
                 closed source programs?
         ●       Who has turned in a problem report?
         ●       Who has gotten a good answer back?
         ●       Who has had to change their business?



Copyright 2008
Wall Street Loves
                      Production Software
         ●       High Profits, low investment
         ●       Few jobs, non-local
         ●       Production software is like printing
                 money
                 –   Who calls the treasury for assistance?
                 –   Who calls a farmer?

                  It is in “their” best interest.

Copyright 2008
80% of All Software
                        Written...
         ...is NOT prepackaged, production
           software
         ●       Systems Admin software
         ●       Embedded Systems Software
         ●       Manufacturing Software
         ●       Other



Copyright 2008
Software In 1977-1980
         ●       Economies of scale made “shrink wrap”
                 software possible
         ●       Companies Started up
                 –   100 engineers
                 –   1000 customers
                 –   2000 reports
                 –   20/engineer
                                     No problem!

Copyright 2008
It Is Now (Almost) 2009
         150 engineers, 4.5 million customers
         ●       9 million pieces of paper
         ●       60000/engineer




                             See the problem?


Copyright 2008
Closed Source
                      Functionality Gap
                  “What You Need vs What You Get”
         ●       Unstable software
         ●       Late bug fixes
         ●       Not in your language
         ●       Does not support your hardware
         ●       Does not do what you want



Copyright 2008
1977 vs 2009
                        1977                      2009
         ●       Expensive             ●   Cheap Hardware,
                 Hardware, Software        Software
         ●       Few computers         ●   Computers
                                           “Everywhere”
         ●       Large training
                                       ●   Less training
         ●       English Language
                 mostly                ●   Many languages
                                           needed
         ●       Small volume of gap
                                       ●   Large volume of gap

Copyright 2008
Volume of Gap
         ●       1977 - 5 USD of loss per day per
                 computerized knowledge worker
         ●       2009 – 5 USD of loss per day per
                 computerized knowledge worker
         ●       Same rate, larger loss

   This is bad today with only 1,000,000,000 computers



Copyright 2008
Total Cost of Ownership
                     (TCO) vs Value




                       Don't be fooled!




Copyright 2008
Most People Do Not Want
                    Products
         ●       Cars and Food
         ●       People want service
         ●       Making software do what people want



                      The “help is far away” problem




Copyright 2008
Not the Functionality I
                        Want...




                 ....what the company thinks I want...




Copyright 2008
How Did We Get Here?




Copyright 2008
I Was A Product Manager
               At Digital Equipment
                   Corporation
         ●       550 engineers
         ●       650 product requirements
         ●       50 of the top ones, 1-2 more further
                 down




Copyright 2008
Financing
         ●       The average person in China makes
                 about 3 USD a day
                 –   different financing for different economies
         ●       Governments with long-term
                 vision/funding are few, getting fewer
         ●       Investment cycles getting shorter
         ●       Increasing value of Internet to business
                 one way of financing for everyone
         ●       Micro-financing – business for everyone
Copyright 2008
To Start A Business Today
        ●    $$ in computer equipment
        ●    $$$$$$$ in computer software
                 –   to say nothing of contract negotiations
        ●    $$$$ in telephony equipment (PBX?)




Copyright 2008
Proprietary Software vs
                     Software Livre
         ●       Buy software and       ●   Pull software from
                 pull software from         Internet (no
                 box                        royalty)
         ●       Install software       ●   Install software
                 and try to get it to       and try to get it to
                 work                       work
         ●       Call support line      ●   Find source code
                 and stay on hold           on Internet, fix it
                                            yourself

Copyright 2008
Software Livre!
        ●    Helps with Balance of Payments
                 –   Local jobs help local economy
        ●    Allows you to start business with less
             up-front investment
        ●    Allows you to change parts of software
             to meet your needs
                 –   bug fixes
                 –   particular enhancements
        ●    Focuses your investment
Copyright 2008
Sustainability
         ●       If it is not here tomorrow, it did not
                 really get here today.
         ●       Long term business plan, not “get rich
                 quick”
         ●       Re-evaluate ways of doing business
         ●       Make sure everyone makes money
         ●       Products as a managed service
                 –   Remove complexity

Copyright 2008
Jobs
         ●       Programmer
         ●       Systems Analyst
         ●       Systems Administrator
         ●       Product Manager
         ●       Technical Marketing Manager
         ●       Teaching
                 –   Commercial
                 –   Public
         ●       Consultant
         ●
Copyright 2008
                 Integrator
Service
         ●       Highly trained and skilled service
                 –   Like a brain surgeon
                 –   Like a lawyer
         ●       Not just packaged product installers




Copyright 2008
May Not Have Electricity:
     Or A Different Value System




Copyright 2008
Open Certification...
                   ....Linux Professional
                          Institute
         ●       Certifies Linux Systems Administrators
         ●       Worldwide
         ●       Distribution Neutral
         ●       Vendor Neutral
         ●       Does not compete in training area
         ●       Non-profit
         ●       Advisory board
Copyright 2008
Free Software Is A
                        Business Enabler
         ●       Your own language
         ●       Your own culture
         ●       No lawyers needed
         ●       Local advertising
         ●       Paid Free Software people
                 –   Systems administrators
                 –   Internal programmers
                 –   government programmers
Copyright 2008
Co-Operatives
                     “Single person...what can you do?”
         ●       Bring together multiple people
                 –   Different expertise
                 –   Shared resources
                      ●   Legal
                      ●   Administrative
                      ●   Sales
         ●       Legal entity
                 –   Longevity
                 –   Professional Insurance
Copyright 2008
Thanks
         ●       Koolu, Inc - www.koolu.com (Who pays
                 my salary)
         ●       IBM – who helps with sustaining funds
         ●       Linux New Media -
                 www.linuxpromagazine.com/pawprints
         ●       The Free and Open Source Software
                 Community
         ●       You


Copyright 2008
Questions?




Copyright 2008

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Strategies and Advantages of Software Livre In An Economic Crisis

  • 1. Strategies and Advantages of Software Livre In An Economic Crisis by Jon quot;maddogquot; Hall Executive Director Linux International Copyright 2008
  • 2. Who Am I.... ....and Why Should You Listen? ● Thirty-nine+ years in the computer industry – Mainframes 5 years – Unix since 1977 – Linux since 1994 ● Programmer, Systems Engineer, Product Manager, QA, Technical Marketing, Educator, Consultant ● Large systems to very small ones ● Vendor and a customer Copyright 2008
  • 3. The World Is In Economic Crisis! ● Financial Institutions failing ● Large Manufacturing and Retail companies failing – “Big Three” auto – Sharper Image ● Companies laying off people Obama keeps talking about SMBs and “spreading the wealth” Copyright 2008
  • 4. Small and Medium Business ● In USA: – Small business – less than 100 employees – Medium business – less than 500 employees ● Globally, 40-50% of all GDP is SMB ● Major advantages: – employment potential and low capital cost – innovation – higher growth rate Copyright 2008
  • 5. More USA Statistics on SMB ● 99.7 per cent of all employer firms ● 50% of all private sector employees ● Almost 45% of private sector payroll ● 60-80 per cent of all new jobs ● 40 per cent of high tech employees ● 52% are home-based ● 97.3% of all known exporters ● 28.9% of all goods exported Copyright 2008
  • 6. Survival Rate of SMBs ● 66% more than two years ● 44% more than four years ● 31% more than seven years SMBs employ people, make products, create services! Copyright 2008
  • 7. Are Large Companies the Only Ones Sustainable? Sure! Just ask.... ● Apollo ● Wang ● Data General ● Digital Equipment Corporation ● Compaq Computer Corporation ● Enron ● General Motors Copyright 2008
  • 8. Large Business ● Monopoly potential – Hard to have competition – When they fail, they fail badly ● “Big Three” car makers ● Wall Street – Government often “held ransom” – Consumers often “held ransom” Copyright 2008
  • 9. Computing In The Beginning ● Hardware expensive, computers few – Software hand-tailored, from beginning – Not “computer science....computer black magic” – “Punched cards and FORTRAN all you need” ● 1980s – Hardware was becoming less expensive – Software was manufactured ● 2007+ Hardware is incredibly cheap Copyright 2008 – Software should be tailored again
  • 10. The Economics of Mass Production ● Meets 70-90% needs of 70-80% of market – .70 x .70 = .49, less than half! ● Create commodity products – What is a commodity? ● Corn? ● Cars? ● Money? – Are business situations a commodity? Copyright 2008
  • 11. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole Copyright 2008
  • 12. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole Copyright 2008
  • 13. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole Copyright 2008
  • 14. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole Copyright 2008
  • 15. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole Copyright 2008
  • 16. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole Copyright 2008
  • 17. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole ● Source Code allows you to sand the corners of the square peg Copyright 2008
  • 18. Imagine Trying to Fill a Round Hole ● Proprietary software is a square peg ● No matter how many square pegs you use, you can never really fill the hole ● Source Code allows you to sand the corners of the square peg Copyright 2008
  • 19. Sometimes I Speak To Hundreds Of Businesspeople.... ● Who has ever had a problem with closed source programs? ● Who has turned in a problem report? ● Who has gotten a good answer back? ● Who has had to change their business? Copyright 2008
  • 20. Wall Street Loves Production Software ● High Profits, low investment ● Few jobs, non-local ● Production software is like printing money – Who calls the treasury for assistance? – Who calls a farmer? It is in “their” best interest. Copyright 2008
  • 21. 80% of All Software Written... ...is NOT prepackaged, production software ● Systems Admin software ● Embedded Systems Software ● Manufacturing Software ● Other Copyright 2008
  • 22. Software In 1977-1980 ● Economies of scale made “shrink wrap” software possible ● Companies Started up – 100 engineers – 1000 customers – 2000 reports – 20/engineer No problem! Copyright 2008
  • 23. It Is Now (Almost) 2009 150 engineers, 4.5 million customers ● 9 million pieces of paper ● 60000/engineer See the problem? Copyright 2008
  • 24. Closed Source Functionality Gap “What You Need vs What You Get” ● Unstable software ● Late bug fixes ● Not in your language ● Does not support your hardware ● Does not do what you want Copyright 2008
  • 25. 1977 vs 2009 1977 2009 ● Expensive ● Cheap Hardware, Hardware, Software Software ● Few computers ● Computers “Everywhere” ● Large training ● Less training ● English Language mostly ● Many languages needed ● Small volume of gap ● Large volume of gap Copyright 2008
  • 26. Volume of Gap ● 1977 - 5 USD of loss per day per computerized knowledge worker ● 2009 – 5 USD of loss per day per computerized knowledge worker ● Same rate, larger loss This is bad today with only 1,000,000,000 computers Copyright 2008
  • 27. Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) vs Value Don't be fooled! Copyright 2008
  • 28. Most People Do Not Want Products ● Cars and Food ● People want service ● Making software do what people want The “help is far away” problem Copyright 2008
  • 29. Not the Functionality I Want... ....what the company thinks I want... Copyright 2008
  • 30. How Did We Get Here? Copyright 2008
  • 31. I Was A Product Manager At Digital Equipment Corporation ● 550 engineers ● 650 product requirements ● 50 of the top ones, 1-2 more further down Copyright 2008
  • 32. Financing ● The average person in China makes about 3 USD a day – different financing for different economies ● Governments with long-term vision/funding are few, getting fewer ● Investment cycles getting shorter ● Increasing value of Internet to business one way of financing for everyone ● Micro-financing – business for everyone Copyright 2008
  • 33. To Start A Business Today ● $$ in computer equipment ● $$$$$$$ in computer software – to say nothing of contract negotiations ● $$$$ in telephony equipment (PBX?) Copyright 2008
  • 34. Proprietary Software vs Software Livre ● Buy software and ● Pull software from pull software from Internet (no box royalty) ● Install software ● Install software and try to get it to and try to get it to work work ● Call support line ● Find source code and stay on hold on Internet, fix it yourself Copyright 2008
  • 35. Software Livre! ● Helps with Balance of Payments – Local jobs help local economy ● Allows you to start business with less up-front investment ● Allows you to change parts of software to meet your needs – bug fixes – particular enhancements ● Focuses your investment Copyright 2008
  • 36. Sustainability ● If it is not here tomorrow, it did not really get here today. ● Long term business plan, not “get rich quick” ● Re-evaluate ways of doing business ● Make sure everyone makes money ● Products as a managed service – Remove complexity Copyright 2008
  • 37. Jobs ● Programmer ● Systems Analyst ● Systems Administrator ● Product Manager ● Technical Marketing Manager ● Teaching – Commercial – Public ● Consultant ● Copyright 2008 Integrator
  • 38. Service ● Highly trained and skilled service – Like a brain surgeon – Like a lawyer ● Not just packaged product installers Copyright 2008
  • 39. May Not Have Electricity: Or A Different Value System Copyright 2008
  • 40. Open Certification... ....Linux Professional Institute ● Certifies Linux Systems Administrators ● Worldwide ● Distribution Neutral ● Vendor Neutral ● Does not compete in training area ● Non-profit ● Advisory board Copyright 2008
  • 41. Free Software Is A Business Enabler ● Your own language ● Your own culture ● No lawyers needed ● Local advertising ● Paid Free Software people – Systems administrators – Internal programmers – government programmers Copyright 2008
  • 42. Co-Operatives “Single person...what can you do?” ● Bring together multiple people – Different expertise – Shared resources ● Legal ● Administrative ● Sales ● Legal entity – Longevity – Professional Insurance Copyright 2008
  • 43. Thanks ● Koolu, Inc - www.koolu.com (Who pays my salary) ● IBM – who helps with sustaining funds ● Linux New Media - www.linuxpromagazine.com/pawprints ● The Free and Open Source Software Community ● You Copyright 2008