John McArthur from the Brookings Institution held the first presentation “9 Priority Financing for Development Commitments” on Development Day 2015 conference "Finance for Sustainable Development” organized on May 11 by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics and the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Presentation sparked a discussion about the current state of financing for sustainable development around the world.

1. 9 priority FfD
commitments
@mcarthur
SITE - Stockholm School of Economics
FfD Conference
11 May 2015

2. Megatrends

3. Source: World Bank 2014
Global extreme poverty rate (%)

4. Child survival (U5MR)
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved …”

5. 7.5 million additional lives saved
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”

6. Global shifts

7. Rates of progress
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”

8. Sources of global growth
Source: CIPS Development Study Group. 2015. Based on WDI 2015.

9. 30 - 30 - 130

10. 30 - 30 - 130

11. 3 Big Breakthroughs

12. 9 Recommendations

13. #1
Basic needs budget
$300 per capita (PPP)
or
10% of GNI (if >$3000)

14. AIC vs GNI per capita
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

15. Lowest AIC per capita
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

16. #2
Domestic Resource Mobilization
½ the gap to 20% of GDP
by 2025

17. Average non-grant revenue in 2010
(%GDP)
Note: Unweighted averages among available observations. Source: JW McArthur calculations based on WDI 2015

18. #3
Middle-income
financing “trough”
MDB system review by 2016

19. Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”

20. #4
~ $1 Trillion gap
for
infrastructure &
decarbonization
no silver bullet

21. peak urban population growth

22. #5
Timetable for
ODA to LDCs
> 0.15-20% of GNI by 2020

23. DAC Donor
ODA to LDCs
(% of GNI)
Absolute Value
(2005 $Mns)
1 Luxem bourg 0.38% 137
2 Denm ark 0.33% 955
3 Sweden 0.31% 1,449
4 Norway 0.30% 1,264
5 Ireland 0.27% 425
6 Belgium 0.22% 988
7 United Kingdom 0.20% 4,362
8 Netherlands 0.20% 1,401
9 Finland 0.19% 417
Already there (2010 - 2012 average)
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …” based on OECD-DAC online statistics 2014.

24. DAC Donor
ODA to LDCs
(% of GNI)
Abs olute Value
(2005 $Mns )
10 Portugal 0.13% 255
11 France 0.12% 2,960
12 Canada 0.12% 1,767
13 Iceland 0.11% 11
14 Germ any 0.11% 3,389
15 Switzerland 0.11% 607
16 Aus tralia 0.10% 1,222
17 New Zealand 0.09% 115
18 Aus tria 0.08% 299
19 Spain 0.08% 1,045
20 United States 0.07% 9,947
21 Japan 0.07% 3,735
22 Italy 0.06% 1,136
23 Korea 0.04% 436
24 Czech Republic 0.04% 71
25 Greece 0.04% 91
26 Slovenia 0.03% 14
27 Slovak Republic 0.03% 21
28 Poland 0.03% 109
Not yet there (2010 - 2012 average)
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …” based on OECD-DAC online statistics 2014.

25. #6
Global Skills Gap
put the “G” in GPE

26. Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18

27. Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18

28. #7
Climate Finance Accounting
ODA ≠ mitigation

29. “climate”
All “ODA”
TODAY "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
• Much “climate” ODA is for mitigation in
UMICs
• Pulls aid away from LDCs
Source: Kharas and McArthur. (2015 rev) “Nine Priority Commitments …”

30. “climate”
True “ODA”
“climate”
All “ODA”
TODAY
RECOMMEND "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
"AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
Source: Kharas and McArthur (2015 rev) “Nine Priority Commitments …”

31. #8
Business performance metrics
“A timetable to fair play”
GASDAP* by 2020

32. Source: Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. 2015. 101 Briefing Presentation

33. #9
LDC/LIC Private Investment
LDC closed-end
investment fund

34. FDI vs ODA in sub-Saharan Africa

35. IV.
Post-script:
Complexities of inequality

36. Note: ODA is net disbursements net of debt relief; Source: OECD-DAC database 2013

37. Note: Aid is ODA net disbursements net of debt relief; Sources: J McArthur
calculations based on OECD-DAC database 2013; BEA 2013; NYS Controller 2013

38. thank you
@mcarthur