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Steve wardell Digital Health Marketing Deck
1. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL HEALTH: CATCHING HEALTHCARE’S DIGITAL WAVE
June 2016
STEVEN WARDELL
DIGITAL HEALTH ANALYST
STEVEN.WARDELL@LEERINK.COM
617.639.3081
MATTHEW DELLELO, CFA
DIGITAL HEALTH ASSOCIATE
MATT.DELLELO@LEERINK.COM
617.918.4812
Please refer to the Disclosure Appendix for Analyst Certification. To access Price Charts and Disclosures specific to Covered
Companies, please refer to https://leerink.bluematrix.com/bluematrix/Disclosure2 or send a request to Leerink Partners
Editorial Department, One Federal Street, 37th Floor, Boston, MA 02110.
The description of Leerink Partners benchmarks is available by contacting the Leerink Partners Editorial Department.
2. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
• Proprietary Healthcare Research on:
- Next-gen healthcare IT (NUAN, PGND, IMPR)
- Digital pharma service (IMS, MDSO, VEEV)
- Online health media (WBMD, EVDY)
- Digital health benefits (HQY, WAGE, TDOC,
CSLT)
- Health consumerism (FIT, WBMD, EVDY)
• Investor Bus Tours & Booth Tours
• Healthcare & Technology Investor Conferences
2
STEVEN WARDELL
• Initiated coverage of Digital Health sector in
October 2014
• 16 years in digital health and life science,
including at PatientKeeper (mobile EMR) and
Activate Networks (big data healthcare analytics)
• Most extensive digital health research franchise
on Wall Street, and longest track record covering
sector
3. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
3
DIGITAL HEALTH OVERVIEW
Managed Care Employer R&D Commerical Hospital CIO Other Clinical Grade Cons. Grade
Nuance (NUAN) Press Ganey
(PGND)
Imprivata
(IMPR)
HealthStream
(HSTM)
Press Ganey
(PGND)
Everyday Health
(EVDY)
Medidata
(MDSO)
WebMD
(WBMD)
Vocera (VCRA) Omnicell
(OMCL)
Philips (PHG) Fitbit (FIT)
Healthways
(HWAY)
WageWorks
(WAGE)
Everyday Health
(EVDY)
Inovalon (INOV) Advisory Board
(ABCO)
Garmin (GRMN)
Castlight
(CSLT)
Model N
(MODN)
Evolent (EVH) NantHealth (NH) Weight
Watchers
(WTW)
Weight
Watchers
(WTW)
Philips (PHG) Mindbody (MB)
Care.com
(CRCM)
= covered by the Leerink Research Digital Health franchise
Digital Health Benefits Digital Pharma Services NextGen Healthcare IT Consumer Digital Health
HealthEquity (HQY)
Teladoc (TDOC)
Benefitfocus (BNFT)
Quintiles IMS (Q-IMS)
Veeva (VEEV)
WebMD (WBMD)
5. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
5
Source: Company data and Leerink Partners estimates
DIGITAL HEALTH SECTOR
Online Health
Media
Consumer
Digital Tools
Consumer
Empowerment
Healthcare
Automation
Big Data
Analytics
Population
Health
Connected
Health Healthcare IT
• Definition
• Why it matters to Wall Street: Disruptive, Proprietary, and Durable
• Sectors of covered companies
6. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
Consumer Empowerment
LEERINK DIGITAL HEALTH LANDSCAPE
Healthcare Smart Systems and Workflow Automation
Connected Health
Big Data
Healthcare IT: EMR, RCM, HIE, Other
Digital Tools: Health Transparency Digital Tools: Benefits
Reimbursed
Online Media & Community
Payer
Physician
Community
Platform Analytics
Population Health Corporate / MCHealthcare System
PharmaProvider
Denotes public company Denotes acquired companyv1.8 Refer comments to: Steven.Wardell@Leerink.comSource: Leerink Partners
7. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
We identified 48 public pure-play stocks of the Digital Health sector and created the Leerink Digital
Health EW48 Index (LDH48).
7
DIGITAL HEALTH SECTOR REVENUE UP 25% IN 2016E, STOCKS UP 7%
Returns, past 12 months:
S&P 500 Health Care: -2%
NASDAQ Biotech: -23%
LDH48 index: +7%
However, average revenue growth
across the LDH48 is projected to
be 25% in 2016 and 18% 2017
We believe Digital Health stocks are gaining favor in the biotech decline.
Note: A list of constituent companies is included in the Appendix of this document. The Leerink Digital Health EW48 Index is comprised of 48 pure-play Digital Health stocks with equal weighting. IPOs added
during the year are treated in the Digital Health Index through rebalancing (includes Fitbit, Inovalon, Press Ganey, Teladoc). Index is last twelve months as of 6/8/2016.
Source: Latest twelve month performance per FactSet 6/8/2016.
8. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
SUB-SECTOR LIFECYCLES
8
PM PROFILE: DIGITAL HEALTH
COVERED COMPANIES: 22% ’16E REV. GROWTH
• Average 22% 2016E top-line growth
• Wide valuation range: consensus EV/Sales (’16E) revenue
range 1.0x (FIT) to 9.2x (VEEV)
• Average 17% potential gain, 28% for OP rated names
• 4 of 13 IPO’d in last 12 months
THEMATIC VIEW: PERFECT STORM OF MEGATRENDS
(+) Demographics: consumers and physicians have shifted
their time online; we think advertisers will follow, creating a
boom for online health media companies.
(+) Employers are shifting healthcare costs onto employees,
creating opportunities for consumer digital tools companies
in healthcare; 2016 will be a big year for more cost shifting.
(+) Healthcare Reform has put IT at the center of how
healthcare gets done and paid for; hospitals are now
seeking to optimize their EMRs and workflows
CATALYSTS: Earnings, Cadillac Tax, MU3, CAHPS
• Earnings are report cards on usage and revenue growth
• Cadillac Tax effective Jan. 1, 2020, drives employer cost
shifting and healthcare consumerism in 2016-19
• Meaningful Use Stage 3 deadlines (ongoing) demand use of
HIT
• 2016 employee benefits season
• Growing CMS CAHPS requirements tie the patient experience
to payment
Source: FactSet data and Leerink Partners estimates
9. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
9
CASTLIGHT HEALTH, INC. (CSLT)
(CSLT – RATING: MARKET PERFORM; PRICE TARGET: $4.30)
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Castlight has built a leading health transparency information
platform that helps employers reduce health benefit costs.
• We believe that there will be strong healthcare cost-shifting by
employers onto employees in 2016 across the board.
• In our view, this shift will directly benefit Consumer Digital Tools
companies such as Castlight. These tools are often used by
employers with cost shifting.
COMPARATIVE STATS
• 2016E Sales growth: 33% (in line with consensus)
• Trading at trough levels, near 52-week low
Source: Company data, Leerink Partners estimates, FactSet Research Systems, and NBGH August 2014 survey
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
Price Performance Since IPO
$4.77 Avg Daily Volume ('000s) 289
$10 Short Interest (% of float) 18.9%
$3 Float as % of Total 56.31%
$462
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners $75 $100 $125 4.1x 3.1x 2.5x
Consensus $75 $101 $128 4.1x 3.1x 2.4x
$101 $128
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners 252% 33% 25% ($65) ($42) ($12)
Consensus 252% 34% 27% ($65) ($39) ($13)
*Consensus estimates represent GAAP EBITDA.
2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners ($0.68) ($0.41) ($0.11)
Consensus ($0.68) ($0.41) ($0.13)
($0.41) ($0.13)
Stock Performance: MTD YTD L12M L3Y
CSLT 13% 12% -49% N/a
S&P 500 Healthcare 1.7% 0.4% -2.0% 49.2%
NASDAQ Biotech -0.4% -17.7% -23.1% 55.7%
Top 10 Holders ~ Shares Held % Out.
Fidelity Management & Research Co. 6,267,450 14.8%
M&G Investment Management Ltd. 3,212,979 7.6%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2,638,280 6.2%
Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Inc. 2,614,122 6.2%
Wellington Management Co. LLP 1,859,298 4.4%
Baillie Gifford & Co. 1,794,878 4.2%
Eventide Asset Management LLC 1,708,418 4.0%
BlackRock Fund Advisors 1,685,532 4.0%
Alyeska Investment Group LP 1,149,824 2.7%
Maverick Capital Ltd. 1,144,314 2.7%
EV/Sales
Price on 06/08/16
52-Week High
52-Week Low
Market Cap (mil)
Sales (mil)
Revenue Growth Adj. EBITDA*
Non-GAAP Diluted Pro-Forma EPS
12. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
12
EVERYDAY HEALTH, INC. (EVDY)
(EVDY – RATING: OUTPERFORM; PRICE TARGET: $13)
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Everyday Health is a leading online health media company
providing health content to both consumers and physicians. Each
month it reaches approximately 53m people and 2/3 of all US
physicians.
• MEDACorp checks and market research indicate physicians and
consumers have moved strongly online
• We see the company poised to take advantage of three key Digital
Health growth drivers:
1. Pharma ad spend coming back strong after weakness in
past few years
2. Consumers taking charge of their healthcare
3. Consumers and physicians shifting content consumption
from offline to online sources
COMPARATIVE STATS
• 2016E Sales growth: 11% (inline with consensus)
Source: Company data, Leerink Partners estimates, and FactSet Research Systems
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Price Performance Since IPO
$7.46 Avg Daily Volume ('000s) 134
$14 Short Interest (% of float) 1.9%
$4 Float as % of Total 70.26%
$248
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners $232 $258 $292 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x
Consensus $232 $257 $290 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x
$257 $290
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners 18% 11% 13% $46 $46 $55
Consensus 18% 11% 13% $46 $45 $61
2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners $0.79 $0.41 $0.68
Consensus $0.79 $0.48 $0.90
$0.48 $0.90
Stock Performance: MTD YTD L12M L3Y
EVDY 11% 24% -41% N/a
S&P 500 Healthcare 1.7% 0.4% -2.0% 49.2%
NASDAQ Biotech -0.4% -17.7% -23.1% 55.7%
Top 10 Holders ~ Shares Held % Out.
Wellington Management Co. LLP 3,444,894 10.4%
BlackRock Fund Advisors 910,097 2.7%
Bow Street LLC 830,439 2.5%
Acuta Capital Partners LLC 824,464 2.5%
JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc. 717,258 2.2%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 710,287 2.1%
Teachers Advisors, Inc. 649,216 2.0%
Westw ood Management Corp. (Texas) 601,089 1.8%
Putnam Investment Management LLC 591,132 1.8%
TFS Capital LLC 528,069 1.6%
52-Week High
Price on 06/08/16
52-Week Low
Market Cap (mil)
Sales (mil) EV/Sales
Revenue Growth Adj. EBITDA
Non-GAAP Diluted Pro-Forma EPS
17. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
17
Fitbit, Inc. (FIT)
Revenue Build Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Units in thousands FY2013A FY2014A FY2015A 1Q:16A 2Q:16E 3Q:16E 4Q:16E FY2016E 1Q:17E 2Q:17E 3Q:17E 4Q:17E FY2017E
Total Devices sold (000) 4,476 10,904 21,324 4,800 5,520 4,692 9,619 24,631 5,964 6,560 5,904 10,037 28,464
q/q -41.5% 15.0% -15.0% 105.0% -38.0% 10.0% -10.0% 70.0%
y/y 250.0% 143.6% 95.6% 24.2% 23.8% -2.3% 17.3% 15.5% 24.2% 18.8% 25.8% 4.3% 15.6%
ASP $60.56 $68.36 $87.13 $105.28 $105.00 $105.00 $105.00 $105.06 $105.00 $105.00 $105.00 $105.00 $105.00
q/q 21.3%
y/y 1.4% 12.9% 27.5% 20.9% 20.6% -0.1%
Active users 2,570 6,700 16,900
Growth % y/y 360.6% 160.7% 152.2%
Total revenue (000) 271,087 745,433 1,857,998 505,356 579,600 492,660 1,009,953 2,587,569 626,171 688,788 619,909 1,053,846 2,988,714
q/q -29% 15% -15% 105% -38% 10% -10% 70%
y/y 255.0% 175% 149% 50% 45% 20% 42% 39% 24% 19% 26% 4% 16%
% of full year 100% 20% 22% 19% 39% 100% 21% 23% 21% 35% 100%
Revenue per user $105.48 $111.26 $109.94
Other Data:
Geographic Sales FY2013A FY2014A FY2015A 1Q:16A 2Q:16E 3Q:16E 4Q:16E FY2016E 1Q:17E 2Q:17E 3Q:17E 4Q:17E FY2017E
US 562,553 1,381,152 351,685
% of total 75% 74% 70%
y/y 146% 33%
Americas ex US 38,576 92,252 23,394
% of total 5% 5% 5%
y/y 139% 74%
EMEA 60,699 208,767 74,724
% of total 8% 11% 15%
y/y 244% 113%
APAC 83,605 175,827 55,553
% of total 11% 9% 11%
y/y 110% 142%
Total 745,433 1,857,998 505,356
Market share ($, NPD Group):
connected activity trackers 59% 70%
GPS fitness watches 0% 3%
Registered Users on Platform 4,500 14,600 29,000
% active 57% 46% 58%
Fortune 500 Corporate Wellness clients over 50
"Works With Fitbit" partners ~35
Source: Leerink Partners LLC, company documents
18. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
18
HEALTHEQUITY, INC. (HQY)
(HQY – RATING: OUTPERFORM; PRICE TARGET: $33)
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Poised to benefit from a number of key Digital Health growth drivers:
(1) employers shifting healthcare benefit expenses onto employees,
especially in the lead-up to the Cadillac Tax, which goes into effect in
2018; (2) the concurrent rise in employer provisioning of Consumer
Directed Benefit (CDB) accounts such as Health Saving Accounts
(HSAs); and (3) the resulting rise in consumer use of these tax-
advantaged accounts in response to both employer cost-shifting and
growing consumerism in healthcare.
• HQY’s broad network of existing partners as a company-specific
asset, giving it access to ~30% (company estimate) of the under-65
privately insured population in the US.
COMPARATIVE STATS
• CY16/FY17E Sales growth: 40% (vs. Street 39%)
Source: Company data, Leerink Partners estimates, and FactSet Research Systems
$29.12 Avg Daily Volume ('000s) 313
$36 Short Interest (% of float) 7.3%
$16 Float as % of Total 93.11%
$1,687
2014A 2015A 2016E 2014A 2015A 2016E
Leerink Partners $88 $127 $178 17.2x 11.9x 8.5x
Consensus $88 $127 $176 17.2x 11.9x 8.6x
$127 $176
2014A 2015A 2016E 2014A 2015A 2016E
Leerink Partners 35% 44% 40% $25.5 $40.6 $58.2
Consensus 35% 44% 39% $25.5 $40.6 $59.4
2014A 2015A 2016E
Leerink Partners $0.21 $0.34 $0.49
Consensus $0.21 #N/A $0.48
Stock Performance: MTD YTD L12M L3Y
HQY 13% 16% 7% NA
S&P 500 Healthcare 1.7% 0.4% -2.0% 49.2%
NASDAQ Biotech -0.4% -17.7% -23.1% 55.7%
Top 10 Holders ~ Shares Held % Out.
W.R. Berkley Corp. (Investment Portfolio) 11,969,699 20.7%
Wells Capital Management, Inc. 3,326,622 5.7%
BlackRock Fund Advisors 3,299,968 5.7%
Janus Capital Management LLC 2,622,011 4.5%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2,493,953 4.3%
Wasatch Advisors, Inc. 2,121,366 3.7%
BAMCO, Inc. 1,659,545 2.9%
Stephens Investment Management Group LLC 1,413,279 2.4%
Invesco Advisers, Inc. 1,405,746 2.4%
Next Century Grow th Investors LLC 1,397,633 2.4%
Price on 06/08/16
52-Week High
52-Week Low
Market Cap (mil)
Sales (mil) EV/Sales
Revenue Growth Adj. EBITDA
Diluted Pro-Forma EPS
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Price Performance Since IPO
19. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
19
Source: Leerink Partners LLC, company documents
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY)
Income Statement for FYE Jan. 31, GAAP Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17
$ in Thousands FY2014A FY2015A FY2016A 1Q:17A 2Q:17E 3Q:17E 4Q:17E FY2017E FY2018E
Revenue:
Total revenue 62,015 87,855 126,786 44,013 43,751 42,985 46,714 177,463 215,023
Growth % y/y 34.6% 41.7% 44.3% 47.4% 43.5% 40.7% 30.2% 40.0% 21.2%
Cost of services:
Account costs 21,473 29,760 39,155 11,207 11,015 12,233 16,105 50,560 56,289
Custodial costs 3,487 4,141 6,522 2,356 2,537 2,593 3,175 10,660 13,789
Card costs 4,137 5,899 8,248 2,719 2,990 2,749 2,853 11,310 12,924
Other costs 116 82 263 50.0 49.7 48.8 53.1 202 246
Total cost of services 29,213 39,882 54,188 16,332 16,592 17,624 22,185 72,733 83,248
% of revenue 47.1% 45.4% 42.7% 37.1% 37.9% 41.0% 47.5% 41.0% 38.7%
Gross profit 32,802 47,973 72,598 27,681 27,159 25,361 24,529 104,730 131,775
% margin 52.9% 54.6% 57.3% 62.9% 62.1% 59.0% 52.5% 59.0% 61.3%
Operating expenses:
Sales and marketing 8,602 10,619 13,302 4,183 4,375 4,298 5,839 18,696 21,502
% of revenue 13.9% 12.1% 10.5% 9.5% 10.0% 10.0% 12.5% 10.5% 10.0%
Technology and development 7,142 10,501 16,832 4,625 5,688 6,147 6,306 22,766 26,912
% of revenue 11.5% 12.0% 13.3% 10.5% 13.0% 14.3% 13.5% 12.8% 12.5%
General and administrative 3,897 8,343 14,113 4,574 5,250 4,728 5,139 19,691 23,222
% of revenue 6.3% 9.5% 11.1% 10.4% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.1% 10.8%
Amortization of acquired intangible assets 1,637 1,637 2,208 1,049 1,049 1,049 1,049 4,196 4,196
% of revenue 2.6% 1.9% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.0%
Total operating expenses 21,278 31,100 46,455 14,431 16,362 16,223 18,333 65,349 75,833
y/y 25% 46% 49% 41% 16%
Income from operations 11,524 16,873 26,143 13,250 10,797 9,139 6,196 39,382 55,943
% margin 18.6% 19.2% 20.6% 30.1% 24.7% 21.3% 13.3% 22.2% 26.0%
62.5% 46.4% 54.9%
Total other income (expense) (6,150) (1,109) (589) (641) (168) (168) (168) (1,145) (672)
Pre-tax Income (loss) 5,374 15,764 25,554 12,609 10,629 8,971 6,028 38,237 55,271
Income tax provision 4,141 5,598 8,941 4,536 3,824 3,227 2,168 13,755 19,883
Tax rate 77.1% 35.5% 35.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0%
GAAP net income and comprehensive income 1,233 10,166 16,613 8,073 6,806 5,743 3,859 24,481 35,387
% margin 2.0% 11.6% 13.1% 18.3% 15.6% 13.4% 8.3% 13.8% 16.5%
GAAP net income per share attributable to common stockholders:
Basic ($1.26) $0.31 $0.29 $0.14 $0.12 $0.10 $0.06 $0.42 $0.58
Diluted ($1.26) $0.20 $0.28 $0.14 $0.11 $0.09 $0.06 $0.40 $0.56
% growth Na 40.0% 57.8% 50.5% 36.8% 19.2% 43.3% 38.7%
GAAP weighted-average number of shares used in computing net income per share attributable to common stockholders:
Basic 5,651 31,181 56,719 57,820 58,687 59,274 59,867 58,912 61,379
Diluted 5,651 51,856 58,863 59,399 60,290 60,893 61,502 60,521 63,055
Net income per share reconciliation to pro forma non-GAAP EPSFY2014A FY2015A FY2016A 1Q:17A 2Q:17E 3Q:17E 4Q:17E FY2017E FY2018E
GAAP net income 10,166 16,613 8,073 6,806 5,743 3,859 24,481 35,387
Non-cash charge from performance-based stock options 1,565 3,647 1,130 1,409 1,409 1,409 5,356 5,634
Pro forma non-GAAP net income 11,238 20,260 9,203 8,214 7,152 5,268 29,837 41,022
Pro forma weighted average shares used in computing non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (1)51,856 58,863 59,399 60,290 60,893 61,502 60,521 63,055
Pro forma non-GAAP earnings per diluted share 0.22$ 0.34$ 0.15$ 0.14$ 0.12$ 0.09$ 0.49$ 0.65$
y/y 58.8% 43.2% 32.0%
21. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
21
IMPRIVATA, INC. (IMPR)
(IMPR – RATING: OUTPERFORM; PRICE TARGET: $17)
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Healthcare reform has put IT at the center of how healthcare is
provided and paid for, but traditional IT systems slow clinicians
down the more they need to use them.
• An enterprise single sign-on system (SSO), which speeds clinicians
back up, is increasingly becoming a software product that hospital
CIOs “need to have” on their network.
• This trend benefits Imprivata which has developed the leading SSO
in the hospital marketplace, growing rapidly over the past several
years, taking share from competitors and earning high rankings in
the SSO category from KLAS, a hospital IT rating firm.
• Security is a rising priority for hospital CIOs and Imprivata is well
positioned with its two new products, Patient Secure and Confirm ID,
which can boost topline growth.
COMPARATIVE STATS
• 2016E Sales growth: 17% (inline with consensus)
• Trading near 52-week low
Source: Company data, Leerink Partners estimates, and FactSet Research Systems
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
$24.00
Price Performance Since IPO
$13.38 Avg Daily Volume ('000s) 69
$22 Short Interest (% of float) 7.2%
$9 Float as % of Total 62.46%
$339
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners $119 $140 $163 2.5x 2.1x 1.8x
Consensus $119 $139 $162 2.5x 2.1x 1.8x
$139 $162
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners 36% 17% 17% ($12) ($9) ($0)
Consensus 36% 17% 16% ($12) ($9) ($1)
2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners ($0.69) ($0.48) ($0.14)
Consensus ($0.69) ($0.52) ($0.20)
($0.52) ($0.20)
Stock Performance: MTD YTD L12M L3Y
IMPR -2% 18% -12% N/a
S&P 500 Healthcare 1.7% 0.4% -2.0% 49.2%
NASDAQ Biotech -0.4% -17.7% -23.1% 55.7%
Top 8 Holders ~ Shares Held % Out.
Wellington Management Co. LLP 3,482,600 13.8%
Tamarack Advisers LP 1,709,893 6.8%
RGM Capital LLC 1,610,861 6.4%
Deerfield Management Company LP 983,486 3.9%
Paradigm Capital Management, Inc. 803,404 3.2%
Broadw ood Capital, Inc. 737,805 2.9%
Emerald Advisers, Inc. 630,414 2.5%
Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust 597,994 2.4%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 484,018 1.9%
BlackRock Fund Advisors 448,812 1.8%
-- #VALUE! --
Market Cap (mil)
Price on 06/08/16
52-Week High
52-Week Low
Sales (mil) EV/Sales
Revenue Growth Adj. EBITDA
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS
24. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
24
IMS Health, INC. (IMS)
(IMS – RATING: OUTPERFORM; PRICE TARGET: $31)
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Well-positioned to capitalize on pharma growth driven by the
relatively high number of new molecular entities projected to be
approved by the FDA in coming years, and from overall pharma
cost-cutting and outsourcing trends as IMS's Technology Solutions
substitute for pharma IT spend and headcount.
• Beyond pharma, IMS is well-positioned to benefit from the shift by
payers and providers toward value-based care as an important
source of pricing and outcome data.
• With a 63% of revenue recurring, a diverse global client base,
steady growth, and reasonable valuation we believe IMS
represents one of the more defensive names in the Digital Health
sector.
COMPARATIVE STATS
• 2016E Sales growth: 9% (vs. Street 8%)
• Pulled in 24% from 2015 peak
Source: Company data, Leerink Partners estimates, and FactSet Research Systems
$25.81 Avg Daily Volume ('000s) 1,452
$34 Short Interest (% of float) 1.1%
$22 Float as % of Total 59.74%
$8,514
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners $2,921 $3,221 $3,454 4.3x 3.9x 3.7x
Consensus $2,921 $3,221 $3,407 4.3x 3.9x 3.7x
$3,221 $3,407
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners 13% 10% 7% $886 $967 $1,091
Consensus 13% 10% 6% $886 $959 $1,039
2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners $1.52 $1.60 $1.79
Consensus $1.52 $1.60 $1.77
Stock Performance: MTD YTD L12M L3Y
IMS -1% 1% -14% NA
S&P 500 Healthcare 1.7% 0.4% -2.0% 49.2%
NASDAQ Biotech -0.4% -17.7% -23.1% 55.7%
Top 10 Holders ~ Shares Held % Out.
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board 46,512,657 14.1%
GIC Pte Ltd. (Investment Management) 30,678,561 9.3%
Wellington Management Co. LLP 21,112,128 6.4%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 8,906,679 2.7%
T. Row e Price Associates, Inc. 8,576,802 2.6%
Lateef Investment Management LP 7,917,048 2.4%
Harding Loevner LP 7,587,171 2.3%
Valinor Management LP 5,278,032 1.6%
Steadfast Capital Management LP 5,278,032 1.6%
BlackRock Fund Advisors 4,948,155 1.5%
EV/Sales
Revenue Growth Adj. EBITDA
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS
Price on 06/08/16
52-Week High
52-Week Low
Market Cap (mil)
Sales (mil)
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Price Performance Since IPO
35. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
35
Source: Leerink Partners LLC, company documents
Valuation Table PGND
Last closing price: $31.47
Press Ganey Fair Value In 12 Months 2017E
Forward EV/Adj. EBITDA multiple 10.5x
Adj. EBITDA $154,309
Enterprise Value $1,620,246
Less debt 4Q16E $175,284
Plus cash 4Q16E $134,758
Equity value $1,579,720
Dil. shares outstanding 4Q16E 54,089
Price Target $29.21
upside (7.2%)
Press Ganey Fair Value In 12 Months 2017E
Forward P/E multiple 30.0x
Non-GAAP EPS $1.23
Price Target $36.98
upside 17.5%
Average Price Target (12 mo.) $33.09
upside 5.2%
36. FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
36
TELADOC, INC (TDOC)
(TDOC – RATING: OUTPERFORM; PRICE TARGET: $21)
INVESTMENT THESIS
• Telehealth is moving into the mainstream, seeing rapid adoption by
employers and insurers seeking ways to provide care more
efficiently and consumers seeking low cost and convenience.
• As nation’s largest provider of telehealth services, TDOC is leading
the penetration of a ~$17 billion TAM which could expand even
further if telehealth is adopted beyond acute care.
• At an estimated 60% topline 3-yr CAGR, TDOC is one of the fastest
growers in the Digital Health sector with mostly recurring
subscription revenues, strong gross margins and long-term profit
potential at scale.
COMPARATIVE STATS
• 2016E sales growth: 55% (inline with consensus)
• 74% of large employers expect to add telehealth benefit in 2016 vs.
48% in 2015*
• IPO in July 2015 at $19
Source: Company data, Leerink Partners estimates, and FactSet Research Systems, *NBGH survey 8/2015
$12.62 Avg Daily Volume ('000s) 272
$35 Short Interest (% of float) 18.3%
$9 Float as % of Total 49.64%
$489
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners $77 $120 $174 5.0x 3.2x 2.2x
Consensus $77 $121 $175 5.0x 3.2x 2.2x
$121 $175
2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners 13% 55% 44% ($48) ($36) ($6)
Consensus 13% 56% 45% ($48) ($39) ($7)
2015 2016E 2017E
Leerink Partners ($1.53) ($1.35) ($0.61)
Consensus ($1.53) ($1.35) ($0.54)
Stock Performance: MTD YTD L12M L3Y
TDOC 10% -30% NA NA
S&P 500 Healthcare 1.7% 0.4% -2.0% 49.2%
NASDAQ Biotech -0.4% -17.7% -23.1% 55.7%
Top 10 Holders ~ Shares Held % Out.
Wellington Management Co. LLP 2,501,505 6.5%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 1,064,553 2.8%
Sectoral Asset Management, Inc. 975,517 2.5%
Marble Arch Investments LP 948,807 2.5%
Brow n Advisory LLC 821,060 2.1%
Wells Capital Management, Inc. 689,443 1.8%
Elk Creek Partners LLC 642,603 1.7%
Fidelity Management & Research Co. 573,310 1.5%
Peregrine Capital Management, Inc. 543,890 1.4%
T. Row e Price Associates, Inc. 519,115 1.3%
EV/Sales
Revenue Growth GAAP EBITDA
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS
Price on 06/08/16
52-Week High
52-Week Low
Market Cap (mil)
Sales (mil)
$5.00
$7.00
$9.00
$11.00
$13.00
$15.00
$17.00
$19.00
$21.00
$23.00
$25.00
Price Performance Since IPO