This document summarizes the economy of the Bay Area. It finds that the Bay Area has recovered all jobs lost during the recession and unemployment rates are below national levels. The region has high wages, household income, and a large share of high-paying tech jobs. Projections show continued faster job growth for the Bay Area compared to the state and nation. Challenges include providing enough housing and improving transportation to support growth while ensuring an adequate skilled workforce.

1. Bay Area Economy Update
Stephen Levy
Center for Continuing Study of the
California Economy
M & M Multifamily Forum Nov 14, 2013

2. Jobs, Income & Sustainability
• Bay Area close to recovering all lost jobs. SF
and SJ metros above pre-recession peaks.
• Region has high share of high wage sectors
• Regional wages and HH income exceed state
and national averages.
• Short and long-term projections have Bay
Area job growth outpacing state and nation.

3. Job Recovery Since January 2008
105%
100%
95%
90%
SFBA
Oak Metro
SF Metro
San Jose Metro
US
Aug 13
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
85%

4. Job Growth March 12-13 Based on
Complete Data-Guide to Revisions
U.S.
1.6%
CA
3.0%
Contra Costa
3.0%
Alameda
3.0%
San Mateo
3.4%
Santa Clara
3.8%
SF
0.0%
4.3%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%

5. Unemployment Rate Trends
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
SFBA
Oak Metro
Dec 07
SF Metro
High
San Jose Metro
May 13
U.S.

6. Average Wage 2012
SJ
$95,399
SF
$87,562
SFBA
$68,477
CA
$56,792
San Diego
$53,907
LA Basin
$52,614
$51,298
Sac Region
$49,289
U.S.
$39,158
San Joaq Val
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
$125,000

7. Median HH Income in 2012
U.S.
CA
San Diego
Alameda
Orange
SF
Contra Costa
San Mateo
Santa Clara
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000

8. Bay Area High Share of U.S. High Wage
Tech Jobs in 2012
Total Nonfarm Jobs
Sci. & R&D Services
Mgmnt & Tech Services
Computer Services
Internet Services
Software
Comp.& Elec. Products
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%

9. Average Wage including Options and
Bonuses
Sci. & R&D Services
$146,288
Mgmnt & Tech Services
$104,253
Computer Services
$202,122
Internet Services
$172,333
$186,797
Software
$167,422
Comp.& Elec. Products
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000

10. Other Positive Factors
• BART South Bay extensions provide new
support for multi-family and office
developments.
• Ditto for the Grand Boulevard Initiative
• The IPO market is again providing an outlet for
investors to realize profits
• Immigration reform would be positive for Bay
Area economy

11. Can the Bay Area Continue to
Outperform the State and Nation
• UCLA has the Bay Area growing substantially
faster than the state and nation in 2014 and
2015
• CCSCE’s 2011 projections for ABAG has the
Bay Area with faster job growth than the state
and nation to 2040. Would show faster Bay
Area job growth if updated today.
• Subject to overcoming regional challenges.

12. Challenges
• Provide enough housing to support economic
growth and attract companies and workers
• Improve transportation infrastructure when 90%
of current funding is allocated to maintaining the
existing system of roads & transit.
• Having enough skilled workers—meeting the
challenges of education and immigration reform.
• Making the Bay Area an attractive place to live
and work.

13. Housing Trends
• Strong price recovery especially in peninsula
counties
• Rising permit levels with strong trend toward
multi-family units
• Demographic shifts favor living in denser
urban centers in the region. Every city has a
downtown with potential

14. Median Price Existing Homes (000s)
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
CA
SFBA
SF
High
Orange
Low
San Mateo Santa Clara Inland Emp.
Sept 13

15. Residential Permits by Type
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
SF
MF
2011
Oakland Metro
SF
MF
2012
SF Metro
SF
MF
2013 (9M)
Santa Clara

16. Population in 2012—Alameda, Contra
Costa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara
3
2.5
2.3
Millions
2
1.6
1.4
1.5
1
0.4
0.5
0
White, Non Hispanic
Asian
Hispanic
Black

17. Bay Area HH Growth (Thousands)
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
Under 25
25-34
2010-2020
35-54
2020-2030
55-64
2030-2040
65-74
75+

18. Initiatives to Follow
• BART expansion to San Jose
• Grand Boulevard Initiative
• Plan Bay Area and city implementation