The document summarizes a financial forum hosted by Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management. It includes an agenda covering a recap of the economic environment, a guest speaker on regional economic opportunities, a discussion of the global financial crisis and market outlook, and an overview of Zeller Kern's investment process focused on advancing and preserving wealth.
Opportunities for Women in US Renewables... and Getting Them ThereLeslie Martel Baer
The energy industries will see the largest business investments of any industry in the coming decades... and that means jobs. The opportunities in renewables and clean energy will grow particularly fast. How can women, who are historically under-represented in STEM professions leverage this growth and be a part of the energy boom? Four panelists who have made energy their careers will share their insights into how it's done now, what policies would help place more women in energy, and what we can expect in the future, including women from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Tristate Generation & Transmission Association, and the US Department of Energy.
Presentation at the Carbon Management Council's July 23, 2008 webinar, Understanding Carbon Markets. Presentation by David Hunter, Director of US Policy, International Emissions Trading Association.
API Report: Oil and Natural Gas Stimulate West Virginia Economic and Job GrowthMarcellus Drilling News
A report from the American Petroleum Institute that shows the incredible number of jobs and resulting economic growth that comes from shale drilling in the U.S. The study keys in on the role of "supply chain" companies--companies that sell good and services to the drilling industry.
Content personalisation is becoming more prevalent. A site, it's content and/or it's products, change dynamically according to the specific needs of the user. SEO needs to ensure we do not fall behind of this trend.
Opportunities for Women in US Renewables... and Getting Them ThereLeslie Martel Baer
The energy industries will see the largest business investments of any industry in the coming decades... and that means jobs. The opportunities in renewables and clean energy will grow particularly fast. How can women, who are historically under-represented in STEM professions leverage this growth and be a part of the energy boom? Four panelists who have made energy their careers will share their insights into how it's done now, what policies would help place more women in energy, and what we can expect in the future, including women from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Tristate Generation & Transmission Association, and the US Department of Energy.
Presentation at the Carbon Management Council's July 23, 2008 webinar, Understanding Carbon Markets. Presentation by David Hunter, Director of US Policy, International Emissions Trading Association.
API Report: Oil and Natural Gas Stimulate West Virginia Economic and Job GrowthMarcellus Drilling News
A report from the American Petroleum Institute that shows the incredible number of jobs and resulting economic growth that comes from shale drilling in the U.S. The study keys in on the role of "supply chain" companies--companies that sell good and services to the drilling industry.
Content personalisation is becoming more prevalent. A site, it's content and/or it's products, change dynamically according to the specific needs of the user. SEO needs to ensure we do not fall behind of this trend.
API Report: Oil and Natural Gas Stimulate Ohio Economic and Job GrowthMarcellus Drilling News
A report from the American Petroleum Institute that shows the incredible number of jobs and resulting economic growth that comes from shale drilling in the U.S. The study keys in on the role of "supply chain" companies--companies that sell good and services to the drilling industry.
At the Associates Membership Meeting, Alliance Associates learned about all that the Alliance accomplished in 2010, and some of what we have planned for membership with the Alliance in 2011.
Energy Efficiency - Good for the World’s Economy; Good for the Nation’s Econo...Alliance To Save Energy
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
States awaiting stimulus funds will be pleased to know that when it comes to funding energy efficiency programs, their dollars will go far. Drastically reduced energy consumption and immediate job growth are just some of the benefits that effective policies and programs can bring, particularly to the Appalachian region, which has the highest energy consumption in the country. Kateri Callahan presented these findings to the annual Charlotte Regional Partnership Investors Board in Charlotte, N.C., where already progressive energy efficiency policies and programs are taking root. Callahan also briefed the audience of investors and board members on the climate and energy bills moving through Congress.
Energy Efficiency – Good for the World’s Economy; Good for the Nation’s Econo...Alliance To Save Energy
States awaiting stimulus funds will be pleased to know that when it comes to funding energy efficiency programs, their dollars will go far. Drastically reduced energy consumption and immediate job growth are just some of the benefits that effective policies and programs can bring, particularly to the Appalachian region, which has the highest energy consumption in the country. Kateri Callahan presented these findings to the annual Charlotte Regional Partnership Investors Board in Charlotte, N.C., where already progressive energy efficiency policies and programs are taking root. Callahan also briefed the audience of investors and board members on the climate and energy bills moving through Congress.
USEA/USAID Global Energy Efficiency Workshop: Briefing on Energy Efficiency and DSM Programs Overseas
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
Washington, D.C.
March 8, 2010
USEA/USAID Global Energy Efficiency Workshop: Briefing on Energy Efficiency and DSM Programs Overseas
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
Washington, D.C.
March 8, 2010
USEA/USAID Global Energy Efficiency Workshop: Briefing on Energy Efficiency and DSM Programs Overseas
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
Washington, D.C.
March 8, 2010
BoyarMiller Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2016BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the Current State of the Capital Markets. Speakers included:
- Drew Kanaly, Kanaly Trust – Equity & the Public Markets
- Cliff Atherton, GulfStar Group – Private Equity and M&A
- John Sarvadi, Texas Capital Bank – Commercial Banking & Real Estate Lending
API Report: Oil and Natural Gas Stimulate Pennsylvania Economic and Job GrowthMarcellus Drilling News
A report from the American Petroleum Institute that shows the incredible number of jobs and resulting economic growth that comes from shale drilling in the U.S. The study keys in on the role of "supply chain" companies--companies that sell good and services to the drilling industry.
South Shore Clean Cities (SSCC), in partnership with the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC), presents the latest edition of its “Promoting Sustainability” webinar series “Solar Up Northwest Indiana.”
Representatives from Boston-based, Meister Consultants Group will be the guest presenters for the webinar. Anyone interested in clean energy, especially residential and commercial Photovoltaic, green builders, homeowners, solar installers and local government officials, is invited to attend this free webinar.
The webinar will cover: Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission’s Rooftop Solar Challenge II Grant: Purpose and Goals, Rooftop Solar 101 Benefits and Barriers, Solar Myth Busters and Best Practices. SSCC and NIRPC will be assembling a stakeholder advisory group for this project.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
API Report: Oil and Natural Gas Stimulate Ohio Economic and Job GrowthMarcellus Drilling News
A report from the American Petroleum Institute that shows the incredible number of jobs and resulting economic growth that comes from shale drilling in the U.S. The study keys in on the role of "supply chain" companies--companies that sell good and services to the drilling industry.
At the Associates Membership Meeting, Alliance Associates learned about all that the Alliance accomplished in 2010, and some of what we have planned for membership with the Alliance in 2011.
Energy Efficiency - Good for the World’s Economy; Good for the Nation’s Econo...Alliance To Save Energy
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
States awaiting stimulus funds will be pleased to know that when it comes to funding energy efficiency programs, their dollars will go far. Drastically reduced energy consumption and immediate job growth are just some of the benefits that effective policies and programs can bring, particularly to the Appalachian region, which has the highest energy consumption in the country. Kateri Callahan presented these findings to the annual Charlotte Regional Partnership Investors Board in Charlotte, N.C., where already progressive energy efficiency policies and programs are taking root. Callahan also briefed the audience of investors and board members on the climate and energy bills moving through Congress.
Energy Efficiency – Good for the World’s Economy; Good for the Nation’s Econo...Alliance To Save Energy
States awaiting stimulus funds will be pleased to know that when it comes to funding energy efficiency programs, their dollars will go far. Drastically reduced energy consumption and immediate job growth are just some of the benefits that effective policies and programs can bring, particularly to the Appalachian region, which has the highest energy consumption in the country. Kateri Callahan presented these findings to the annual Charlotte Regional Partnership Investors Board in Charlotte, N.C., where already progressive energy efficiency policies and programs are taking root. Callahan also briefed the audience of investors and board members on the climate and energy bills moving through Congress.
USEA/USAID Global Energy Efficiency Workshop: Briefing on Energy Efficiency and DSM Programs Overseas
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
Washington, D.C.
March 8, 2010
USEA/USAID Global Energy Efficiency Workshop: Briefing on Energy Efficiency and DSM Programs Overseas
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
Washington, D.C.
March 8, 2010
USEA/USAID Global Energy Efficiency Workshop: Briefing on Energy Efficiency and DSM Programs Overseas
Kateri Callahan
President, Alliance to Save Energy
Washington, D.C.
March 8, 2010
BoyarMiller Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2016BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the Current State of the Capital Markets. Speakers included:
- Drew Kanaly, Kanaly Trust – Equity & the Public Markets
- Cliff Atherton, GulfStar Group – Private Equity and M&A
- John Sarvadi, Texas Capital Bank – Commercial Banking & Real Estate Lending
API Report: Oil and Natural Gas Stimulate Pennsylvania Economic and Job GrowthMarcellus Drilling News
A report from the American Petroleum Institute that shows the incredible number of jobs and resulting economic growth that comes from shale drilling in the U.S. The study keys in on the role of "supply chain" companies--companies that sell good and services to the drilling industry.
South Shore Clean Cities (SSCC), in partnership with the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC), presents the latest edition of its “Promoting Sustainability” webinar series “Solar Up Northwest Indiana.”
Representatives from Boston-based, Meister Consultants Group will be the guest presenters for the webinar. Anyone interested in clean energy, especially residential and commercial Photovoltaic, green builders, homeowners, solar installers and local government officials, is invited to attend this free webinar.
The webinar will cover: Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission’s Rooftop Solar Challenge II Grant: Purpose and Goals, Rooftop Solar 101 Benefits and Barriers, Solar Myth Busters and Best Practices. SSCC and NIRPC will be assembling a stakeholder advisory group for this project.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
2. Welcome To The 2011 Financial Forum Hosted by The financial consultants of Zeller Kern are registered representatives and investment adviser representatives with and offer securities and advisory services through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA Financial Investor Regulatory Authority / SIPC Security Investor Protection Corporation, a registered investment advisor. Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management Inc., 11335 Gold Express Drive, Suite 155, Gold River, CA 95670, 916-436-8270
3. Today’s Speakers Steven E. Zeller, President, CFP ® , AIF ® , CExP TM Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management, Inc. Trevor K. Kern, CFO, AIF ® , AAMS Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management, Inc. Special Guest Robert G. Burris, Senior Vice President Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization
12. Where Are We Now Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The market for all securities is subject to fluctuation such that upon sale an investor may lose principal. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. YTD September 15, 2011 Return Stocks: Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.94% Standard & Poor’s 500 -3.86% Nasdaq Composite -1.73% Russell 2000 Index -8.73% MSCI EAFE Index -14.98% Bonds: 10-Year Treasury Yield 1.95% Commodities: DJ-UBS Commodity Index -2.53% Gold 25.72% Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index 0.11%
47. 2010 May 2 – first bailout ($43B) May 18 – second bailout ($18.7B) September – IMF says Greek reform “ahead of schedule” 2011 January – rating agencies cut Greek debt to “junk” February – third bailout ($19.5B) April – Europe leaders urge Greece to control spending May – S&P cuts debt to B (just above Pakistan) as anti-austerity protests rise June 8 – fourth bailout ($8.5B) June 9 – GDP tumbles 5.5% June 13 – S&P downgrades to CCC July 2 – fifth bailout ($17B) approved, for disbursement July 15 A Review of Greece
48.
49. Further Pressures Ahead Source: FactSet, IMF’s June 2011 World Economic Outlook, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
50. Looming concern for U.S. Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, OMB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
82. Advance & Preserve Investment Process There is no guarantee this strategy will meet its objectives. The strategy does not guarantee a profit or guarantee protection against a loss. This illustration is hypothetical and is intended to illustrate the strategy only. The “right” entry or exit point is not guaranteed.
87. Buy & Hold vs. Advance & Preserve Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: ‘Missing the Ten Best’ by Paul J. Gire, CFP® 8.23% 40 days 10.01% 30 days 11.99% 20 days 14.24% 10 days Best # of trading days missed
88. Buy & Hold vs. Advance & Preserve Missing the worst days has a bigger impact… Source: Financial Planning Association Journal, May 2005: “Missing the Ten Best” by Paul J. Gire, CFP ® 31.66% 8.23% 40 days 29.45% 10.01% 30 days 27.04% 11.99% 20 days 24.17% 14.24% 10 days Worst Best Number of Trading Days Missed
96. Thank You The financial consultants of Zeller Kern are registered representatives and investment adviser representatives with and offer securities and advisory services through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a registered investment adviser. Financial Planning offered through Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Zeller Kern Private Wealth Management Inc, 11335 Gold Express Drive, Suite 155, Gold River, CA 95670, 916-436-8270
Editor's Notes
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If they stopped the clock on the first half of 2011, the S&P would have looked very different than it did a mere four trading days later. This is the nature of markets. See the 2 year return of the S&P and MSCI World Index vs. the 3 year return? That’s a dramatic difference. Source: Google Finance
We are likely still in the midst of a long-term or “secular” bear market. That does not mean that stocks fall continuously. It just means that sustained advances are harder to come by. Since many investors were educated about investing in the 1980s and 1990s, a glorious time for stock investors, a lot of re-education about how markets can behave has had to occur the past 11 years. Source:http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html?SP-Composite-secular-trends
Relative to what people earn working, home prices have fallen dramatically after surging for nearly a decade.
However, prices have yet to find a bottom.
Data on sales of new homes is bittersweet – homes are being sold, but many are situations that involve a short sale or foreclosure. Source: http://www.googlerealestate.com/shadow-inventory-2011 /
At this point in the recovery, the U.S. is way behind past recoveries in restoring jobs that were lost. By now, it would not have been unreasonable to think that we could have closed the gap completely. But in fact, we are nowhere near that point. This more than anything else we discuss in this presentation is a thorn in the side of progress toward the next economic boom. Source: http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=EmploymentRecessionsNov.jpg
Many of those who ARE working would like to be working more, but can’t find a full-time job. Sad but true. Source: http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=EmploymentRecessionsNov.jpg
Even sadder is the possibility that some jobs are gone forever. Unemployment is no longer a temporary state for many. The key to turning things around will be to find new growth industries. http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment&chart=UnemployedOver26WeekMay2011.jpg
Unemployment and housing are two significant headwinds for the U.S. economy today. Now, let’s examine some other important areas of the economic landscape.
Consumer confidence has bounced off of the severe lows of late 2009. However, it still has a ways to go to regain its early-2007 level. Why is this important? Because economic growth can’t occur unless people are enthusiastic about spending money. They need to be confident about their own futures to feel that way.
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Europe is a different story. The EFSF bailout fund — currently at $620 billion — is enough to rescue Portugal and Greece, but not Spain or Italy. Germany and France are resisting the Eurobond movement. A break-up of the euro could set off a financial domino trend from Greece outward.
Europe is a different story. The EFSF bailout fund — currently at $620 billion — is enough to rescue Portugal and Greece, but not Spain or Italy. Germany and France are resisting the Eurobond movement. A break-up of the euro could set off a financial domino trend from Greece outward.
Five bailouts in 14 months. Alexander the Great must be turning over in his grave. The main issue for all of us is the path that the Greeks and other weak European economies went down to reach this point. Years of artificially-manufactured high living created this problem. Failure to acknowledge it or rein it in made it worse. This is not only a Greek, Portuguese and Spanish problem in Europe. It exist in the USA as well, as recent years have shown us.
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Countries with a debt to GDP ratio of 90% or more have seen an extreme drop-off in economic growth-a cautionary tale for the U.S., where debt to GDP may reach 100% by 2020.
Most of the debt has simply been shifted around in the system. At theses high levels of total debt to GDP, it is difficult for the economy to achieve sustainable recovery.
From our 2011 Outlook published February 2 nd , 2011 We expected S&P 500 to enter into the 1325-1358 and either peak in this area or run to even higher into the 1400 levels The alternative scenario was that we would see a bear market peak sometime in the second or third quarter and for the market to head into another bear market
Read Slide
Consumer credit reached a historic high. Includes credit cars, mortgages etc. and is imploding from bankruptcies, and the individuals ability to simply walk away Consumer debt, commercial mortgage debt, U.S. Government Debt, Europe Debt, record level of money printing, fueling an asset bubble (caused by credit implosion, Federal Reserve is out of ammo balance sheet
Self-liquidating credit is a loan paid back in a short period of time from production Full transaction adds value to economy Non-self-liquidating credit is not tied to production, e.g. consumer purchases, margins for stock purchases No production effort tied to loan Adds costs, not value to economy Cost of the debt burdens production
If our secular outlook tells us which direction the freeway is headed, then our cyclical outlook tells us the more immediate conditions so we know which lane to drive in, how fast to go and what the drivers around us are doing. “ investors will need to show considerable agility as tails grow fatter and market outcomes become more uncertain” Flexibility and agility are embedded in our investment process
Advance & Protect is a capital preservation model with an offensive strategy. More simply put, that means we are going to try and capture growth when the market is rising and protect capital when the market is falling. We use a strict buy and sell discipline and a combination of qualitative and quantitative strategies to achieve our objective. Our qualitative strategy is the fundamental analysis we use to filter all the available investments down to the ones we want in our portfolio, and our quantitative strategy is the computer program we use to determine entry and exit points.
This diagram is a very simple way of illustrating the objectives of Advance and Protect. Of course we can’t guarantee the perfect entry or exit point, but in general the objective of Advance & Protect is to participate in the market when it is advancing and move out of the market when it is falling.
So why use Advance and Protect now? Let’s first take a look at where the market has been. Over the past 60 years there have been four distinct market eras or cycles. Two of these cycles have been prolonged bull markets offering above average returns with very little volatility. The other two have been sideways markets with periods of high volatility making it difficult to create wealth. An active investment process like Advance & Protect may be useful in navigating these volatile periods.
So why use Advance and Protect now? In our current market environment, and over the last ten years, a buy and hold investment strategy has not worked. Investors have lost a lot of money in the last two bear markets. As individuals we don’t have infinite time horizons and it becomes harder to recover from losses the older you get. Also, due to globalized markets and electronic, 24 hour trading, diversification alone is not enough to reduce market risk. For example, in 2008, all asset classes fell in the same way, except cash and treasury bonds. Diversification did not help reduce risk.
This is a comparison of Buy and Hold versus Advance and Protect using an article written in 2005 for the Financial Planning Association Journal. The article was written in support of a buy and hold strategy and the author looked at a 15 year period from January 1984 through December 1998. The S&P average annual return during those 15 years was 17.89%, but only a handful of trading days accounted for most of the S&P 500’s returns.
According to the article, if you missed the best 10 trading days in that 15 year period, the S&P 500 returns were 14.24%. If you missed the best 20 days, the returns were 11.99%, If you missed the best 30 days the returns were 10.01% and if you missed the best 40 days, the returns fell to 8.23%, less than half of the 17.89% annual average.
What the article doesn’t say is what happens to returns if you miss the worst trading days. So we looked at the same time period the article looked at and missing the worst trading days during those 15 years actually has a bigger impact on returns. If you missed the worst 10 days, the returns were 24.17%, not 17.89%. If you missed the worst 20 days, the returns were 27.04% and missing the worst 30 days the returns were 29.45%. If you missed the worst 40 days out of 15 years, the returns were 31.66%, almost double the annual average return of 17.89%.
Now this is for illustration purposes only, and we cannot time the market perfectly to capture the best days and miss the worst. Doing that is impossible. So we eliminated the best and worst trading days from the same 15 year time period. And interestingly, missing the best and worst trading days still beat the buy and hold return of 17.89% and the returns were pretty even regardless of whether it was 10 days or 40 days. And that is basically what Advance and Protect does. It removes the peaks and valleys from a market cycle and captures the middle part of the return.
If our secular outlook tells us which direction the freeway is headed, then our cyclical outlook tells us the more immediate conditions so we know which lane to drive in, how fast to go and what the drivers around us are doing. “investors will need to show considerable agility as tails grow fatter and market outcomes become more uncertain” Flexibility and agility are embedded in our investment process
If our secular outlook tells us which direction the freeway is headed, then our cyclical outlook tells us the more immediate conditions so we know which lane to drive in, how fast to go and what the drivers around us are doing. “investors will need to show considerable agility as tails grow fatter and market outcomes become more uncertain” Flexibility and agility are embedded in our investment process
