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Tyler Reyno
Queen’s Space Conference
February, 2016
Starting a Canadian Rocket Company
1
Outline
•Introduction
•Main point
•Support of a domestic launch capability
•Proposed route of development
•Overview of a proposed solution
•Wrapping things up
1
2
Introduction
•Tyler Reyno
• Open Space Orbital Inc.
• BEng (Mechanical)
• Ongoing MASc (Aeronautical)
3
Main Point
4
Main Point
•Domestic launch capability
•Discussed primarily in terms of a private
company
5
Support Of A Domestic
Launch Capability
6
•Resource-based economy (limited) vs.
progressive technology-based economy
(unlimited)
2
Reasons Why It Makes Sense
7
•Technological position among
international competitors
Technological Relevance
8
•If nation doesn't apply evolutionary
pressure on itself, it remains in state of
neutrality
Technological Relevance
9
•Political position among international
competitors
Political Relevance
10
•Not mentioned among highest profile
nations like US, Russia and China
Political Relevance
11
•Space program without access to space
Access
12
•Ability to employ large amounts of
people with wide skill ranges + high level
intellect
Human Resources
13
•Should want this degree of genius
working in-country
Human Resources
14
•Last but not least, it’s necessary
•Tendency of something not growing is
to wither
It’s Necessary
15
•Decline of space program if we only
focus on maintenance without
increasing value
It’s Necessary
16
Proposed Route Of
Development
17
•Entry through the smallsat launch
industry:
• Roughly 250% market growth over next 5
years
• Supported by off-the-shelf smallsat
solutions
• Smallsat market value (approx. $7.4B)
Entering the Launch Industry
18
•Dedicated smallsat launchers seeing
increased demand
Entering the Launch Industry
19
•Easiest access in term of economics:
*Image credit: Skybox Imaging
Market Accessibility
20
•Other notes:
• Light lift most attractive among other lift
classes
• More in reach of Canada’s budget
• Low risk in terms of capital/resource loss
in case of failure
*Image credit: Skybox Imaging
Market Accessibility
21
•Regulatory and logistic realities support
us
Regulations and Logistics
22
•Greater political standing among many
European countries
Regulations and Logistics
23
•In terms of developing progressively
more capable launch capabilities
Stepping Stone
24
•There is market share available for
multiple smallsat launch capabilities
(private or public-private)
Competitive Analysis
25
Overview of a
Theoretical Solution 26
Operations
27
•13-year development timeline
•First launch slated for Year 6
Development Timeline
28
Outsourcing
•Outsourcing key components in the
beginning leads to faster access to
market
29
Proposed Outsourcing Strategy
•Main components:
• First stage engines
• COPV’s (fuel + oxidizer)
30
Result
•In-house development programs:
• All other components: Year 1-5 (5 years)
• First stage engines: Year 4-8 (5 years)
• COPV’s: Year 6-10 (5 years)
31
•Two primary locations:
• Engineering and development facility
• Corresponding spaceport
Establishment
32
•Close proximity between manufacturing
and launch facilities
Establishment
33
•Northern Nova Scotia is a good choice
•Located between North America and
European space markets
Location
34
•SSO and PO accessibility (popular
destinations among smallsats)
•Flight path above the Atlantic Ocean
•Reasonable inclination
35
Orbital Considerations
•Lean operation with talent located
under one roof is critical
•Main focus on high manufacturing and
launch frequencies
Operating Philosophy
36
Engineering
37
•No reliance on radical, untried
technologies
•Prioritize simplicity and reliability
Design Philosophy
38
•90% of a vehicle’s cost comes in the last
10% of performance
Design Philosophy
39
•91% of rocket failures attributed to
three areas:
• Propulsion
• Separation
• Avionics
Failure Modes
40
•Pressure-fed propulsion systems
•Ablatively-cooled nozzles
•Vehicle engineering design with small
safety factors
Possible Simplification Methods
41
•Two-stage format
•50 kg payload capacity
•14 m length, 0.9 m diameter
•13,500 kg vehicle mass
•90-second first stage burn time
Proposed Rocket Characteristics
42
•New level of transportability
•Requirement for economically feasible
commercial smallsat launcher
Proposed Rocket Characteristics
43
•First stage engine:
• 35,000 lbf first stage
thrust
• LOX/ethanol
• Pintle injector
• Sea level specific impulse
of 220 s
Proposed Propulsion Characteristics
44
Financials
45
•Always a matter of economics
•Limiting factor facing customer base is
launch cost
Economics
46
•Human resources
•Supporting infrastructure and
technology
•Regulatory and legal considerations
Capital Requirements
47
•5-year development timeline and
budget:
• Year 1: $2,000,000
• Year 2: $18,000,000
• Year 3: $11,000,000
• Year 4: $16,000,000
• Year 5: $10,000,000
•Total: $57,000,000
Proposed Financial Plan
48
•Federal budget illustration:
• 2016: 0.41% of CSA budget
• 2017: 4.70% “
• 2018: 3.41% “
• 2019: 4.96% (extrapolated)
• 2020: 3.01% (extrapolated)
Public Enterprise
49
•Value received over investment is high
•Development of:
• Critical new infrastructure
• Space-supporting resources and
technology
Public Enterprise
50
•Operational and pricing target:
• $2,000,000 launch cost
• $40,000 per kg at 50 kg total payload
capacity
• 50 launches per year (approx. weekly
launches)
Business Goal
51
•Progressively increase launch rate:
• Year 1-5: No launches
• Year 6-8: 3 launches per year
• Year 9-10: 6 launches per year
• Year 11: 18 launches per year
• Year 12: 30 launches per year
• Year 13+: 50 launches per year
Launch Rate Strategy
52
•Progressively decrease cost:
• Year 1-5: No launches
• Year 6-8: $6M per launch (3 launches )
• Year 9-10: $5M per launch (6
• Year 11: $4M per launch (18
• Year 12: $3M per launch
• Year 13+: $2M per launch (50
lyear)
Pricing Strategy
53
•Progressively refined profit margins:
• Year 1-5: No launches
• Year 6-8: 11.8% (3 launches per year)
• Year 9-10: 30.8% (6 launches per year)
• Year 11: 72.5% (18 launches per year)
• Year 12: 48.3% (30 launches per year)
• Year 13+: 59.8% (50 launches per year)
Profit Margins
54
• Progressively increase launch rate while decreasing
cost
• Year 1-5: No launches
• Year 6-8: $6M per launch (3 launches per year)
• Year 9-10: $5M (6 launches per year)
• Year 11: $4M (18 launches per year)
• Year 12: $3M (30 launches per year)
• Year 13+: $2M (50 launches per year)
•119 performed launches
Stage
Employment
Spending
($M)
Operational
Spending
($M)
R&D
Spending
($M)
Total
Spending
($M)
Gross
Revenue
($M)
Net Revenue
($M)*
Net Revenue
($M) [After
Taxes]*
Year 6-13 101.4 15.5 170.365 287.265 583 280.95 210.71
Launch Period Spending
55
2028+ (Year 13+) Financial Summary
Employment spending (per year) $13M
Operational spending (per year) $0.05M
R&D spending (per year) $27.125M
Total spending (per year) $40.175M
Gross revenue (per year) $100M
Net revenue (per year)* $56.834M
Net revenue (per year) [After Taxes]* $42.625M
Price per launch $2M
Expenditure per launch $0.804M
Average profit per launch $1.196M
Average profit per launch assuming 5% failure $1.136M
Average profit per launch (5% failure) after taxes [25%]) $0.852M
Yearly profit (after taxes) $42.625M
Proposed Financial Plan Summary
56
2028+ (Year 13+) Financial Summary
Employment spending (per year) $13M
Operational spending (per year) $0.05M
R&D spending (per year) $27.125M
Total spending (per year) $40.175M
Gross revenue (per year) $100M
Net revenue (per year)* $56.834M
Net revenue (per year) [After Taxes]* $42.625M
Price per launch $2M
Expenditure per launch $0.804M
Average profit per launch $1.196M
Average profit per launch assuming 5% failure $1.136M
Average profit per launch (5% failure) after taxes [25%]) $0.852M
Yearly profit (after taxes) $42.625M
Proposed Financial Plan Summary
57
•*Net revenues consider 95% mission
success rate
•Year 13+ profit margin is 59.8%
•Cash positive at Year 6
•Maximum market share of 16%
Details
58
Wrapping Things Up
59
Review
•Illustration:
• Need for a domestic launch capability
• Potential operational, engineering and
financial philosophies
60
Review
•The time is right for this sort of
advancement
•The technologies exist
•The talent exists
61
Review
•Study of economic feasibility suggests
there may be impressive ROI
•Forward thinking and commercialization
will support us
62
•It’s going to have to be public-private
My Thoughts
63
•Public-private better in terms of:
• International government cooperation
• True growth of Canada’s space program
My Thoughts
64
Thank You
•QSC sponsors and delegates
•Attendees
•Company members, partners and
supporters
65
Tyler Reyno, Founder and CEO
+1 (902) 499-7671
info@openspaceorbital.com
66

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Starting a Canadian Rocket Company (Finished)

  • 1. Tyler Reyno Queen’s Space Conference February, 2016 Starting a Canadian Rocket Company 1
  • 2. Outline •Introduction •Main point •Support of a domestic launch capability •Proposed route of development •Overview of a proposed solution •Wrapping things up 1 2
  • 3. Introduction •Tyler Reyno • Open Space Orbital Inc. • BEng (Mechanical) • Ongoing MASc (Aeronautical) 3
  • 5. Main Point •Domestic launch capability •Discussed primarily in terms of a private company 5
  • 6. Support Of A Domestic Launch Capability 6
  • 7. •Resource-based economy (limited) vs. progressive technology-based economy (unlimited) 2 Reasons Why It Makes Sense 7
  • 8. •Technological position among international competitors Technological Relevance 8
  • 9. •If nation doesn't apply evolutionary pressure on itself, it remains in state of neutrality Technological Relevance 9
  • 10. •Political position among international competitors Political Relevance 10
  • 11. •Not mentioned among highest profile nations like US, Russia and China Political Relevance 11
  • 12. •Space program without access to space Access 12
  • 13. •Ability to employ large amounts of people with wide skill ranges + high level intellect Human Resources 13
  • 14. •Should want this degree of genius working in-country Human Resources 14
  • 15. •Last but not least, it’s necessary •Tendency of something not growing is to wither It’s Necessary 15
  • 16. •Decline of space program if we only focus on maintenance without increasing value It’s Necessary 16
  • 18. •Entry through the smallsat launch industry: • Roughly 250% market growth over next 5 years • Supported by off-the-shelf smallsat solutions • Smallsat market value (approx. $7.4B) Entering the Launch Industry 18
  • 19. •Dedicated smallsat launchers seeing increased demand Entering the Launch Industry 19
  • 20. •Easiest access in term of economics: *Image credit: Skybox Imaging Market Accessibility 20
  • 21. •Other notes: • Light lift most attractive among other lift classes • More in reach of Canada’s budget • Low risk in terms of capital/resource loss in case of failure *Image credit: Skybox Imaging Market Accessibility 21
  • 22. •Regulatory and logistic realities support us Regulations and Logistics 22
  • 23. •Greater political standing among many European countries Regulations and Logistics 23
  • 24. •In terms of developing progressively more capable launch capabilities Stepping Stone 24
  • 25. •There is market share available for multiple smallsat launch capabilities (private or public-private) Competitive Analysis 25
  • 28. •13-year development timeline •First launch slated for Year 6 Development Timeline 28
  • 29. Outsourcing •Outsourcing key components in the beginning leads to faster access to market 29
  • 30. Proposed Outsourcing Strategy •Main components: • First stage engines • COPV’s (fuel + oxidizer) 30
  • 31. Result •In-house development programs: • All other components: Year 1-5 (5 years) • First stage engines: Year 4-8 (5 years) • COPV’s: Year 6-10 (5 years) 31
  • 32. •Two primary locations: • Engineering and development facility • Corresponding spaceport Establishment 32
  • 33. •Close proximity between manufacturing and launch facilities Establishment 33
  • 34. •Northern Nova Scotia is a good choice •Located between North America and European space markets Location 34
  • 35. •SSO and PO accessibility (popular destinations among smallsats) •Flight path above the Atlantic Ocean •Reasonable inclination 35 Orbital Considerations
  • 36. •Lean operation with talent located under one roof is critical •Main focus on high manufacturing and launch frequencies Operating Philosophy 36
  • 38. •No reliance on radical, untried technologies •Prioritize simplicity and reliability Design Philosophy 38
  • 39. •90% of a vehicle’s cost comes in the last 10% of performance Design Philosophy 39
  • 40. •91% of rocket failures attributed to three areas: • Propulsion • Separation • Avionics Failure Modes 40
  • 41. •Pressure-fed propulsion systems •Ablatively-cooled nozzles •Vehicle engineering design with small safety factors Possible Simplification Methods 41
  • 42. •Two-stage format •50 kg payload capacity •14 m length, 0.9 m diameter •13,500 kg vehicle mass •90-second first stage burn time Proposed Rocket Characteristics 42
  • 43. •New level of transportability •Requirement for economically feasible commercial smallsat launcher Proposed Rocket Characteristics 43
  • 44. •First stage engine: • 35,000 lbf first stage thrust • LOX/ethanol • Pintle injector • Sea level specific impulse of 220 s Proposed Propulsion Characteristics 44
  • 46. •Always a matter of economics •Limiting factor facing customer base is launch cost Economics 46
  • 47. •Human resources •Supporting infrastructure and technology •Regulatory and legal considerations Capital Requirements 47
  • 48. •5-year development timeline and budget: • Year 1: $2,000,000 • Year 2: $18,000,000 • Year 3: $11,000,000 • Year 4: $16,000,000 • Year 5: $10,000,000 •Total: $57,000,000 Proposed Financial Plan 48
  • 49. •Federal budget illustration: • 2016: 0.41% of CSA budget • 2017: 4.70% “ • 2018: 3.41% “ • 2019: 4.96% (extrapolated) • 2020: 3.01% (extrapolated) Public Enterprise 49
  • 50. •Value received over investment is high •Development of: • Critical new infrastructure • Space-supporting resources and technology Public Enterprise 50
  • 51. •Operational and pricing target: • $2,000,000 launch cost • $40,000 per kg at 50 kg total payload capacity • 50 launches per year (approx. weekly launches) Business Goal 51
  • 52. •Progressively increase launch rate: • Year 1-5: No launches • Year 6-8: 3 launches per year • Year 9-10: 6 launches per year • Year 11: 18 launches per year • Year 12: 30 launches per year • Year 13+: 50 launches per year Launch Rate Strategy 52
  • 53. •Progressively decrease cost: • Year 1-5: No launches • Year 6-8: $6M per launch (3 launches ) • Year 9-10: $5M per launch (6 • Year 11: $4M per launch (18 • Year 12: $3M per launch • Year 13+: $2M per launch (50 lyear) Pricing Strategy 53
  • 54. •Progressively refined profit margins: • Year 1-5: No launches • Year 6-8: 11.8% (3 launches per year) • Year 9-10: 30.8% (6 launches per year) • Year 11: 72.5% (18 launches per year) • Year 12: 48.3% (30 launches per year) • Year 13+: 59.8% (50 launches per year) Profit Margins 54
  • 55. • Progressively increase launch rate while decreasing cost • Year 1-5: No launches • Year 6-8: $6M per launch (3 launches per year) • Year 9-10: $5M (6 launches per year) • Year 11: $4M (18 launches per year) • Year 12: $3M (30 launches per year) • Year 13+: $2M (50 launches per year) •119 performed launches Stage Employment Spending ($M) Operational Spending ($M) R&D Spending ($M) Total Spending ($M) Gross Revenue ($M) Net Revenue ($M)* Net Revenue ($M) [After Taxes]* Year 6-13 101.4 15.5 170.365 287.265 583 280.95 210.71 Launch Period Spending 55
  • 56. 2028+ (Year 13+) Financial Summary Employment spending (per year) $13M Operational spending (per year) $0.05M R&D spending (per year) $27.125M Total spending (per year) $40.175M Gross revenue (per year) $100M Net revenue (per year)* $56.834M Net revenue (per year) [After Taxes]* $42.625M Price per launch $2M Expenditure per launch $0.804M Average profit per launch $1.196M Average profit per launch assuming 5% failure $1.136M Average profit per launch (5% failure) after taxes [25%]) $0.852M Yearly profit (after taxes) $42.625M Proposed Financial Plan Summary 56
  • 57. 2028+ (Year 13+) Financial Summary Employment spending (per year) $13M Operational spending (per year) $0.05M R&D spending (per year) $27.125M Total spending (per year) $40.175M Gross revenue (per year) $100M Net revenue (per year)* $56.834M Net revenue (per year) [After Taxes]* $42.625M Price per launch $2M Expenditure per launch $0.804M Average profit per launch $1.196M Average profit per launch assuming 5% failure $1.136M Average profit per launch (5% failure) after taxes [25%]) $0.852M Yearly profit (after taxes) $42.625M Proposed Financial Plan Summary 57
  • 58. •*Net revenues consider 95% mission success rate •Year 13+ profit margin is 59.8% •Cash positive at Year 6 •Maximum market share of 16% Details 58
  • 60. Review •Illustration: • Need for a domestic launch capability • Potential operational, engineering and financial philosophies 60
  • 61. Review •The time is right for this sort of advancement •The technologies exist •The talent exists 61
  • 62. Review •Study of economic feasibility suggests there may be impressive ROI •Forward thinking and commercialization will support us 62
  • 63. •It’s going to have to be public-private My Thoughts 63
  • 64. •Public-private better in terms of: • International government cooperation • True growth of Canada’s space program My Thoughts 64
  • 65. Thank You •QSC sponsors and delegates •Attendees •Company members, partners and supporters 65
  • 66. Tyler Reyno, Founder and CEO +1 (902) 499-7671 info@openspaceorbital.com 66

Editor's Notes

  1. Domestic launch capability Reasons why it makes sense Entering the launch industry
  2. Two years of work
  3. References to government support
  4. Interplanetary travel, space resource mining, others around the corner Canada will have to demonstrate a certain level of access to space if it wishes to play a serious role
  5. Domestic launch capability reflects national confidence Nations that thrive are nations that take risks
  6. Passivity relying on other nations for large capital and resource investment capabilities
  7. Unlike any other industry, requires people of all trades and expertise
  8. Ground-breaking innovation does not stem from a passive environment Talent will almost always depart for better opportunity
  9. Value only comes through taking risks Can’t stick solely to what we know (space robotics and satellites)
  10. Develop a smallsat launcher
  11. Development of backlog due to secondary payload status Currently no domestic competition (has been proven to be detrimental)
  12. High market value [available market capitalization value] over investment High technology value [value of what the technology enables us to do] over investment
  13. Less restrictive regulatory agencies [no ITAR/EAR-level bodies]
  14. International market reach
  15. Resources accumulated from smallsat launch program would serve as “dirt under nails” Transferrable tech and knowledge
  16. Rocket Lab, FireFly, Virgin Galactic and others
  17. Referencing development time towards full potential Comparatively small in comparison to medium and heavy lift launch programs
  18. Leads to more efficient engineering program Not executing R&D for all components of launch vehicle at same time
  19. There are Canadian companies predominantly working in these areas
  20. Market entrance at Year 6
  21. Ease of transportation of rocket hardware
  22. Excellent location for high frequency smallsat missions Economically feasible
  23. Proximity to equator
  24. Necessary for economic feasibility
  25. Result is ease of manufacture Low price and increased performance follow
  26. High performance is frequently the enemy of high reliability
  27. Design focus should be here
  28. (COPV propellant tanks) (Non-regeneratively cooled) (1.1-1.2) = Keep vehicle weight and material costs down
  29. 18- or 20-wheeler Key for high frequency launches
  30. Not optimized, but representative of possible solution taking design philosophies into consideration Approx. 245 s in-flight (average 230 s)
  31. Must provide low $/kg
  32. May imagine in terms of 2016-2020
  33. Maximum: approx. 5%
  34. Think this is pretty fair
  35. Economic attainability to new and ongoing satellite projects
  36. May still imagine in terms of 2016-2028
  37. May still imagine in terms of 2016-2028
  38. May still imagine in terms of 2016-2028
  39. Post-development period = sustainable business operation
  40. Highly dependent on achievability of 50 launches per year Only sustainable way to bring down cost so low is to launch frequently
  41. Highly dependent on achievability of 50 launches per year Only sustainable way to bring down cost so low is to launch frequently
  42. Extrapolating Assuming average of two satellites per launch
  43. This has been a review of why Canada needs a domestic launch capability, as well as an illustration of potential engineering and financial philosophies which may serve its development
  44. Required capital and resources Market opportunity
  45. Heavily government-supported, regardless of whether economics point to capital success
  46. National launch program would more so affect everybody