Stanford University - E-Mobility - The future of the automobile. Presentation held by Sven Beiker, Director CARS - Stanford University, on October 26th, 2011at Stanford University at the E-Mobility Symposium organized by the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg.

1. E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile?
How Much Electrification Do We Need, And Why Are We Doing This Again?
Baden-Württemberg Forum „E-Mobility“
Stanford University
October 24, 2011
Dr. Sven A. Beiker
CARS
Center for Automotive Research at Stanford
automotive@stanford.edu, http://automotive.stanford.edu
Executive Director, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford - CARS
416 Escondido Mall, Bldg 550/Room 131, Stanford, CA 94305-4021, USA
(+1)650 736-1504, beiker@stanford.edu, http://automotive.stanford.edu

2. Electric Vehicle / Mobility Research At Stanford
School of Engineering: Life Cycle Assessment
Consumer Purchase Criteria
Battery Technology
Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility
Consumer Purchase Behavior
School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety
Battery Technology
School of Earth Sciences: Driving Patterns & Range

3. Which Problem(s) Are We Trying To Solve?
Under which conditions does electric mobility:
• slow down global warming?
• decrease dependence on (foreign / scarce) resources?
• decrease air pollution?
• integrate into electric infrastructure?
• become the better alternative for consumers?
è There is (probably) not just one answer!
Climate Resources Pollution Infrastructure Consumers

4. Average Daily Miles Traveled – Rational Consideration?
100
Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%]
90
Germany US
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab
Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
0
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]

5. Actual Considerations For Vehicle Purchase
100
Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%]
90
Germany US
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab
Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
0
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]

6. Short- vs. Long-Term Considerations For Car Choice
1. What powertrain concept will you buy as your next car?
Electric None
Plug-In 20% 3%
Hybrid
2%
Hybrid ICE
16% 59%
2. Which car would you choose for a test drive next weekend?
None ICE Hybrid Plug-In
2% 6% 4% Hybrid
11%
Electric
77%
Source: poll among 55 students in class ME302, January 2011

7. US / EU Surveys: EV Revolution Not Happening, Yet
Challenges US consumers see regarding electric vehicles [1]
28% range and battery life
20% availability of charging stations
17 % total cost/affordability
9% high [purchase] cost of vehicles
Challenges EU industry experts see regarding electric vehicles [2]
65% range
57% availability of charging stations
55% total cost/affordability
30% not suitable for everyday driving
Analysts expect EVs to have 2% to 3% share of the new-car market by 2020 [3]
Consumers are not ready for EVs
or
are EVs not ready for consumers?
[1] “Energy + Environment Study”, Market Strategies International, Nov 2010 (1,168 interviews U.S. nationwide, Oct 14-25, 2010)
[2] “European Automotive Survey 2011”, Ernst & Young, Aug 28, 2011
[3] “Are Americans Willing to Try Electric Cars?”, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 1, 2010

8. Research To Understand / Help Consumer Concerns
School of Engineering: ✗ Life Cycle Assessment
✗Consumer Purchase Criteria
Battery Technology
Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility
✗Consumer Purchase Behavior
✗
School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety
Battery Technology
School of Earth Sciences: ✗ Driving Patterns & Range

9. Range Anxiety, EV Research, And Lifecycle Emissions
Typical Driving R&D Focus for Electric Vehicles
100
Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%]
90
Germany US
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab
Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
0
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]

10. Which Vehicle Is The Most Sustainable?
$10K Life-Cycle Emissions Externality Damages and Oil Premium Costs Oil Premium
Military
$8K
Monopsony
$6K Disruption Resources
$4K
Externality Damage
$2K VOC
$0 SO2
PM2.5
CV
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV60
BEV240
CV
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV60
BEV240
CV
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV60
BEV240
PM10 Pollution
NOx
CO
BASE CASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC GHGs
US Avg Zero-Emission Coal Fired Climate
Grid Mix Power Plant Power Plant
Vehicle Types
Source: J. Michalek et al, “Valuation of plug-
in vehicle life-cycle air emissions CV Conventional PHEV20 Plug-In 20km E-Range
and oil displacement benefits”, HEV Hybrid Electric PHEV60 Plug-In 60km E-Range
Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, July 2011 BEV240 Battery 240km Range

11. “Green” Vehicles Are Here –Which Is “The One”?

12. E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile?
The Future of the automobile is electric –
the question just is how much…