The document discusses the challenges and considerations surrounding the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) as a sustainable transportation alternative. It highlights consumer concerns about range, charging infrastructure, and costs, as well as the perspectives of industry experts and research findings from various studies. Ultimately, it questions whether consumers are ready for EVs or if EVs are adequately prepared to meet consumer expectations.

1. E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile?
How Much Electrification Do We Need, And Why Are We Doing This Again?
Baden-Württemberg Forum „E-Mobility“
Stanford University
October 24, 2011
Dr. Sven A. Beiker
CARS
Center for Automotive Research at Stanford
automotive@stanford.edu, http://automotive.stanford.edu
Executive Director, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford - CARS
416 Escondido Mall, Bldg 550/Room 131, Stanford, CA 94305-4021, USA
(+1)650 736-1504, beiker@stanford.edu, http://automotive.stanford.edu

2. Electric Vehicle / Mobility Research At Stanford
School of Engineering: Life Cycle Assessment
Consumer Purchase Criteria
Battery Technology
Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility
Consumer Purchase Behavior
School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety
Battery Technology
School of Earth Sciences: Driving Patterns & Range

3. Which Problem(s) Are We Trying To Solve?
Under which conditions does electric mobility:
• slow down global warming?
• decrease dependence on (foreign / scarce) resources?
• decrease air pollution?
• integrate into electric infrastructure?
• become the better alternative for consumers?
è There is (probably) not just one answer!
Climate Resources Pollution Infrastructure Consumers

4. Average Daily Miles Traveled – Rational Consideration?
100
Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%]
90
Germany US
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab
Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
0
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]

5. Actual Considerations For Vehicle Purchase
100
Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%]
90
Germany US
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab
Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
0
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]

6. Short- vs. Long-Term Considerations For Car Choice
1. What powertrain concept will you buy as your next car?
Electric None
Plug-In 20% 3%
Hybrid
2%
Hybrid ICE
16% 59%
2. Which car would you choose for a test drive next weekend?
None ICE Hybrid Plug-In
2% 6% 4% Hybrid
11%
Electric
77%
Source: poll among 55 students in class ME302, January 2011

7. US / EU Surveys: EV Revolution Not Happening, Yet
Challenges US consumers see regarding electric vehicles [1]
28% range and battery life
20% availability of charging stations
17 % total cost/affordability
9% high [purchase] cost of vehicles
Challenges EU industry experts see regarding electric vehicles [2]
65% range
57% availability of charging stations
55% total cost/affordability
30% not suitable for everyday driving
Analysts expect EVs to have 2% to 3% share of the new-car market by 2020 [3]
Consumers are not ready for EVs
or
are EVs not ready for consumers?
[1] “Energy + Environment Study”, Market Strategies International, Nov 2010 (1,168 interviews U.S. nationwide, Oct 14-25, 2010)
[2] “European Automotive Survey 2011”, Ernst & Young, Aug 28, 2011
[3] “Are Americans Willing to Try Electric Cars?”, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 1, 2010

8. Research To Understand / Help Consumer Concerns
School of Engineering: ✗ Life Cycle Assessment
✗Consumer Purchase Criteria
Battery Technology
Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility
✗Consumer Purchase Behavior
✗
School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety
Battery Technology
School of Earth Sciences: ✗ Driving Patterns & Range

9. Range Anxiety, EV Research, And Lifecycle Emissions
Typical Driving R&D Focus for Electric Vehicles
100
Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%]
90
Germany US
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab
Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology
0
15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180
Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]

10. Which Vehicle Is The Most Sustainable?
$10K Life-Cycle Emissions Externality Damages and Oil Premium Costs Oil Premium
Military
$8K
Monopsony
$6K Disruption Resources
$4K
Externality Damage
$2K VOC
$0 SO2
PM2.5
CV
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV60
BEV240
CV
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV60
BEV240
CV
HEV
PHEV20
PHEV60
BEV240
PM10 Pollution
NOx
CO
BASE CASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC GHGs
US Avg Zero-Emission Coal Fired Climate
Grid Mix Power Plant Power Plant
Vehicle Types
Source: J. Michalek et al, “Valuation of plug-
in vehicle life-cycle air emissions CV Conventional PHEV20 Plug-In 20km E-Range
and oil displacement benefits”, HEV Hybrid Electric PHEV60 Plug-In 60km E-Range
Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, July 2011 BEV240 Battery 240km Range

11. “Green” Vehicles Are Here –Which Is “The One”?

12. E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile?
The Future of the automobile is electric –
the question just is how much…