Africa Market Update - July 2016

2SEPTEMBER 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
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Table of Contents
Company
JULY 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA
Cover image: http://635.gtbank.com/2015/03/african-10-top-powerhouse-economies/
www.stratlinkglobal.com
NIGERIA 4
KENYA 5
TANZANIA 6
UGANDA 8
RWANDA 9
ZAMBIA 7

3JULY 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
Company
827.3 Million
35.9 Million
20.0 Million
26.8 Million
746.2 Million
42.0 Million
65.0 Million
25.3 Million
5.0 Million
160.0 Million
320,000
40,000
19.9 Million
Capital Invested by Country (USD)
AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE JANUARY 2016 - JUNE 2016
Capital Invested by Sectors
10,000
2.2 Million
820,000
20.4 Million
6.2 Million
71.9 Million
11.8 Million
146.6 Million
Capital Invested by Deal Type
Deals Snapshot
• DalmaƟan AdverƟsing (South Africa) was acquired by M&C Saatchi for an undisclosed amount on June 21st 2016
• PEG Ghana raised USD 4.3 Million of Series A2 venture funding in a deal led by Energy Access Ventures on June 16th, 2016
• SpacePointe (Nigeria) raised USD 1.2 Million of Series A angel funding from undisclosed investors on June 9th, 2016
Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa
South Africa
Ethiopia
Egypt
Namibia
Uganda
Mozambique
Rwanda
Burkina Faso
Kenya
Madagascar
Tanzania
MauriƟus
Morocco
Tunisia
Liberia
Nigeria
322.0 Million
Congo
Eritrea
Malawi
Zambia
Sierra Leone
Ghana
Merger & AcquisiƟon ................... Buyout/LBO ..............
Growth & Expansion .................... Add-on ......................
Corporate DivesƟture .................. Secondary TransacƟon..
IPO ................................................... PIPE ..............................
Asset AcquisiƟon ............................. Share Repurchase ........
18.4% 17.3%
15.7% 10.3%
10.0% 7.6%
5.7% 3.1%
2.0%
Others ............................................. 8.8%
1.1%
6.4%CommunicaƟons
& Networking
2.6%Commercial Banks
9.8%Others
1.8%SoŌware
18.4%Commercial
Services
17.9%Retail
Healthcare 4.2%
Metals, Minerals
& Mining
8.6%
9.4%PharmaceuƟcals
& Biotech
Consumer
Non-Durables
17.8%
1.5%Capital Markets
1.6%Insurance
18.4%
17.3%
15.7%10.3%
10.0%
7.6%
5.7%
3.1%
2.0%
1.1%
8.8%

Company
Informal Economy Portends Investment
Opportunity
Arts Entertainment Recreation and Agriculture are
thetwoeconomicareaswiththelargestproportion
of informal activity, presenting both a challenge
and opportunity for the economy. The opportunity
lies in the fact that, through progressive reforms,
there exists a lot of room for attraction of investors
into these sectors in the years ahead whereas
the challenge lies in the fact that there exists
little incentive for the existing informal players to
formalize operations as it would imply higher cost
through licensing and remittance of taxes.
Devaluation Elevates Confidence in Policy
Environment
The federal government continues to register
progress on the political platform with the
devaluation of the Naira (June 20th, 2016) coming
on the back of the passage of the record USD 30.0
Billion 2016 budget after protracted delay (three
months). Both developments send a signal that
policy makers take cognizance of the gravity of the
economic downturn and are undertaking remedial
measures.
Good Boost for All Progressives Congress’
Reform Profile
Coming just one year after President Buhari
assumedoffice,suchpolicyadjustmentsarecritical
in reshaping an investment landscape pervaded
by waning confidence in the economy’s ability to
equal its challenges. This helps build momentum of
the new administration’s profile which has already
been touted for its stance on anti-corruption
measures which it has championed through the
push for a Treasury Single Account to streamline
payments from state ministries and departments.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
NIGERIA
Central Bank Abandons Currency Peg
Abandonment of the currency peg for a managed
floating regime comes as a favourable signal
for the investment community which has been
grappling with foreign currency shortage. The
change of stance by the Central Bank conforms
to our projection in February 2016 that the
regulator would be compelled to devalue the local
unit between Q1, 2016 and Q2, 2016, bowing
to pressure from an adverse macroeconomic
environment. The devaluation was welcomed by
foreign investors being deemed as a favourable
indication on alignment of policy with day-to-day
developments in the economy.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Domestic Market less Rapt by Naira Devaluation
Whereas yields in the international market
pointed at improved perception by investors
following devaluation of the Naira, movements in
the domestic market suggest investors’ lingering
concern over the state of the economy. The yield
curve nudged further up in June 2016 in what can
be ascribed to the sustained uptick in inflation that
has defied monetary intervention. Inflation rose
further in May 2016 to stand at 15.3%, 120.0 bps
higher than the preceding month. Additionally,
the contraction of the economy in Q1 2016 has
elicited sentiment that the economy could be
slipping into recession as the oil price shock takes
a toll of growth drivers.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Full report available for purchase via:

Company
Regional Plan to Ban to Boost Domestic Apparel
Sector
The plan by East Africa member states to ban
importation of second hand clothes effective
2018 raises prospects of both opportunity and
challenge in markets such as Kenya. With regard
to opportunity, this is bound to create room for
growth of the domestic industry creating new
avenues for investment. Sectors such as leather
in Kenya will have widened room for growth both
domestically and within the region.
Country Remains under ‘Watch’ Despite Show of
Unity
An apparent show of unity between factions of
the opposition and the government have served
to defuse the build-up in political temperatures. In
May 2016, concern emerged over the state of the
political environment as opposition led protests
rallying a call for the resignation of commissioners
of the electoral commission and police retaliation
turned chaotic in Nairobi and other parts of the
country.
Whereas this development is welcome and bodes
well for the political risk environment, it remains
to be seen whether it will be sustained through
the pre-election period. StratLink Africa retains
the country’s political risk environment under
close watch with a focus on the institutional
preparedness of the country to navigate the
2017 general election. Utterance of potentially
inflammatory remarks by a section of the political
class is a particular cause for concern.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
KENYA
Budget 2016/17 Sheds Light on Banking Sector
Stability
Budget 2016/17 came against the backdrop of an
economy shaken by a succession of scares in the
banking sector following the placement of Dubai,
Imperial and Chase Banks under receivership. In
light of this, emphasis on strengthening stability
in the banking sector was elevated in this year’s
budget including proposals to:
• Increase the penalty for violation of the
Banking Act prudential guidelines four-fold to
USD 197,693.2 (Kes 20.0 Million) as well as an
allowance for additional penalties each day
the violation continues
• Re-submit to the National Assembly
measures aimed at increasing capitalization
requirements for banks
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Liquidity Conditions Tighten
In the period under review, yields registered
marginal downward movement across all tenors
with the largest change reported in the three year
paper that saw its yield decline by 50.0 bps to
13.0%.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Market Remains Subdued
The market remained subdued through June 2016
as bearish sentiments persisted amongst investors
with the shilling ceding ground marginally after
a resilient phase between April and May 2016.
Investors are likely to have been engaging in a
waiting game ahead of the tabling of budget
2016/17 to assess policy proposals that could have
impacted the capital markets.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE

Company
Budget to Promote Business Environment
Creating an enabling business environment is
one of the key priorities highlighted in Tanzania’s
Annual Development plan for 2016/17 given that
the country trails regional peers in World Bank’s
Ease of doing Business 2016, despite leading in
attracting foreign direct investment. As a result,
Tanzania has set aside 15.0% of the USD 13.5
Billion budget for improving infrastructure in
order to support the business environment and
retain foreign investment into the country.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Opposition asserts its Authority Amidst claims of
Diminishing Freedoms
PresidentJohnMagufuli’sadministrationhascome
under sharp criticism following accusations of
alleged abuse of the Cyber Crime Act to propagate
intolerance of speech and media freedoms. This
came after it was reported that the government
had banned live coverage of parliamentary
proceedings and all political rallies planned by the
opposition. The allegation undermines Magufuli’s
otherwise widely acclaimed performance as well
as the political risk environment. It also derails
efforts aimed at forging national unity beyond the
hotly contested 2015 general election that divided
the country along competing political factions.
TANZANIA
Expansionary Budget to Stimulate Growth
The government unveiled the 2016/17 national
budget entailing a USD 13.5 Billion expenditure
plan, an increase of 31.1%, year-on-year, focusing
on industrial and infrastructural development.
Moreover, government is looking to reduce the
budget deficit from the current 4.5% of GDP to
less than 3.0% in 2017 through prudent fiscal
policy that trims on excesses in expenditure.
Note: In 2016/17, domestic revenue is expected to
account for 62.3% of the total budget.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Yields Exhibit Mixed Movement
Yieldsforthe182Dayand364Daypapersexhibited
signs of rising in June 2016 in an environment
of tightened liquidity conditions that saw the
interbank rate rise by 100.0 bps, month-on-
month, to average 13.3% in June 2016. This came
even as inflation remained favourably anchored
within the 5.0%- 5.5% band, with a marginal rise
to 5.2% in May 2016. Budget 2016/17 projects a
21.1% increase in borrowing by the government
(with USD 2.5 Billion to be sourced from the
domestic market) that could inflict a general
upward pressure on yields going forward.
Source: Bank of Tanzania, StratLink Africa
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
T-Bill Yield Trend
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
91 Day 182 Day 364 Day

Company
Solar Auction Bodes well for Business
Environment
The outcome of the World Bank-led solar power
auction won by Neoen SAS and First Solar Inc
bodes well for the economy which is grappling
with the after effects of a protracted energy crisis.
The two companies’ bid to generate electricity at
6.02 cents per Kilowatt Hour and are expected to
build a 45.0 Megawatt solar plant to help meet
growing demand for energy in the country.
Growing Focus on Non-hydro Energy
This begins to raise confidence that the country
is making steps towards addressing the ongoing
energy crisis that has affected the investment
climate. It also serves as a crucial signal of growing
interest in the non-hydro renewable energy sector
of the economy which promises to diversify further
the pool of energy sources.
Election Cycle enters Homestretch
The country has entered the homestretch of the
election cycle with the official campaign period
commencing on May 16th, 2016. The election is
bound to elicit enormous interest as it is widely
perceived as a referendum on the administration
of incumbent President, Edgar Lungu, which
is grappling with an adverse macroeconomic
environment. Lungu, who took office following the
Presidential by-election of January 2015, assumed
power a time when copper prices were on a
nose dive in the global markets and China, one of
Zambia’s key export markets, was decreasing its
activity and demand for raw materials. As such,
the economy has been buffeted by fiscal and
monetary pressures that have seen inflation soar
and the government tighten its belt on diminished
export earnings.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Central Bank Remains Hawkish as Inflation
Declines and Election Jitters Loom
Bank of Zambia maintained a hawkish stance in
its May 2016 meeting despite decline in inflation
between February 2016 and May 2016 signaling a
cautious position on the monetary environment.
This could, in part, be informed by the drought
afflicting Southern Africa and is feared to drive
food inflation upwards as well as need to have the
tightening cycle transmit through the monetary
system. We do not anticipate expansionary change
in the monetary policy until after the August 2016
general election as the Central Bank maintains a
watchful position on the state of the economy
and potential spill-overs from the political
environment.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Available data indicates the yield curve humped
sending an indication of possible jitters by
investors over the state of the economy in the
medium term.
Foreign investor holdings have been declining
faster in the short-term than in the long-term
papers, further lending credence to the view of
likely jitters over the economy’s trajectory in the
short-term.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Source: Bank of Zambia, StratLink Africa
Yield Curve (May 20th, 2016)
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
28.0%
30.0%
2 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year 15 Year
ZAMBIA

Company
Import Substitution to Promote Manufacturing
Uganda,likeitsEastAfricacounterparts,hasshifted
focus to import substitution policy to grow the
country’s manufacturing sector. Manufacturing
was reported as one of the sectors that registered
the lowest performance in financial year 2015/16
with the sector’s growth posting a measly 0.4% in
the year under review from 11.0% in the previous
year. Consequently, the government increased the
specific duty rate on worn clothes and shoes from
0.2 USD/kg to 0.4 USD/kg in the 2016/17 budget,
in line with EAC Summit directive requiring EAC
Partner States to gradually phase out importation
of used clothes and footwear in the region. In
addition, the government proposed to increase
the environment levy on used clothes, shoes and
other articles from the current 15.0% to 20.0% in
the next financial year.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Security Strategy under Focus as Somalia Pull-
out looms
Uganda’s regional security strategy is bound to
come under sharp focus in the coming months
as the government revealed plans to withdraw its
troops from Somalia by December 2017, a move
which could bring to an end Uganda’s nine-year
peace keeping mission in the strife torn country.
The country’s troops are the largest contingent
of the African Union-sponsored peacekeeping
mission, about a third of the 22,000 troops, and
the withdrawal could reverse the progress of the
AU mission. Previously, Uganda failed to follow
through on its threat to pull out of all peacekeeping
missions in 2012, following allegations by the
United Nations that it was backing rebels in
eastern DR Congo.
UGANDA
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Construction to Drive Economy in 2016/17
Budget 2016/17 posts a 9.2% increase, year-on-
year, on planned government expenditure to
USD 7.8 Billion in line with the country’s National
Development Plan II which seeks to scale up public
investments, with a focus on agriculture, public
works, transport and energy, pointing towards
diversification as the economy gradually shifts
from reliance on agriculture to manufacturing and
services. Construction and public works, which
are considered a vital growth pivot in the face of
lurking macroeconomic pressures, received the
lion’s share of the budget.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Marginal Rise in Yields on Liquidity Tightening
and Inflation Signal
There was relative liquidity tightening in the
money market between April and May, 2016 with
the interbank rate rising by 130.0 bps to 13.7% in
May 2016. As such, yields posted a marginal rise
prompted, as well, by subtle inflation uptick ─
inflation increased marginally by 30.0 bps to 5.4%
in the period under review
Source: Bank of Uganda, StratLink Africa
Monthly Interbank Rate (Average)
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16

Company
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Rwanda Looks to Boost Local Manufacturing in
the 2016/17 Budget
Textiles, garments and leather industry, are among
the high priority sectors envisioned to foster
Rwanda’s economic growth in 2017 financial year,
receiving 27.0% of the USD 2.6 Billion budget.
Rwanda is looking to implement taxation measures
in 2016/17 that will make good its promise
to promote local manufacturing and reduce
importation of goods, particularly, second-hand
clothes and shoes. As reported in our February
2016 Market Update, Rwanda’s textile industry
faced a tumultuous year witnessing decelerated
growth owing to increased second hand imports
into the market.
Stable Political Environment
Rwanda’s political outlook remains stable, despite
strained relations with neighboring states (Burundi
and the Democratic Republic of Congo) presenting
a favourable environment even as the country
heads to the 2017 general election. In the meant
time, President Kagame has also reached out
to the East in a bid to court new allies given the
recent spat with long-term trade allies notably the
United States of America and the United Kingdom
(UK).
UK Extends an Olive Branch
The UK has extended an olive branch to Rwanda
as it looks for stronger bilateral ties; a development
that underscores Rwanda’s position as a strong
frontier destination for trade and investment. The
UK is looking to leverage on Rwanda’s conducive
business environment (Rwanda leads East Africa
peers in World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business
Index 2016) through introduction of direct flights
between the two countries, to tap into available
opportunities which many other economic rivals
like China and other Asian nations are targeting.
RWANDA
Budget Focus: Exports Promotion and Fiscal
Tightening
Expenditure for the period July 2016 – June 2017 is
projected to increase by 12.6% to USD 2.6 Billion
as government looks on further improving the
business environment through fiscal adjustments.
A key target for the year underway is to slash the
fiscal deficit from the present 5.4% of GDP to 3.9%
in 2017, signaling rationalization of expenditure
in the months ahead. However, the government
still faces revenue mobilization hurdles as it
anticipates decrease of donor funding with the
grants projected to reduce by 2.5% to USD 487.1
Million, year-on-year, in 2016/17.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Liquidity Tightening Endures as Government
Borrowing Plunges
Government borrowing maintained the
downtrend witnessed in the past three months,
dipping further by 20.6% to USD 27.3 Million
between April and May, 2016. On the other hand,
liquidity tightening prevailed in with the interbank
rate rising by 32.0 bps, month-on-month, to
an average of 5.9% in May 2016. The franc
maintained resilience against the greenback in the
period under review attributable to the tightening
liquidity. Consequently, the T-Bill yields registered
a general rise in the period under review.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Company
Note on Brexit and sub-Saharan Africa
The outcome of Britain’s June 2016 referendum that favored the country’s exit from the European Union has roiled global
markets, notably in equities and foreign exchange. In sub-Saharan Africa, we anticipate the following to be key areas of
interest:
• With the Sterling Pound having suffered precipitous depreciation, it could present an opportune window for
economies in sub-Saharan Africa to service Sterling Pound denominated debt at a cheaper rate. This is, however,
complicated by the fact that a number of economies are reeling from subdued commodity prices and with little room
for fiscal adjustment
• Economies in sub-Saharan Africa could potentially have greater leverage in negotiation of trade terms with Britain
going forward in view of the fact that the latter has lost the pivot of being part of the expanse European Union market
• Should Brexit mark the onset of further fragmentation of the European Union, select sub-Saharan Africa economies
such as Kenya stand to lose a major export destination that could affect the balance of payments
Our team provided commentary on the World Economic Forum blog on lessons Africa could draw from Brexit with a focus
on managing immigration.
Please click the button to view the full article
Elsewhere, Senior Research Analyst, Julians Amboko, provided commentary on policy options available for Egypt in light
of its new status as Africa’s second largest economy.
Please click the button to view the full article

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13August 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
ContactDetails
STRATLINK AFRICA
StratLink - Africa, Limited.
Delta Riverside, Block 4,
4th Floor, Riverside Drive,
Nairobi, Kenya
nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com
www.stratlinkglobal.com
+254202572792
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Africa Market Update - July 2016

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