- A panel of experts was commissioned to assess Greater Manchester's economy and provide recommendations to improve productivity and prosperity. - They have produced an evidence update to revisit earlier recommendations in light of COVID-19, Brexit, energy costs, and the need to address climate change and inequality. - The update finds that while productivity is improving, health issues still significantly impact economic activity and inequality across Greater Manchester. Transitioning to net zero carbon will require substantial investment and innovation in areas like construction and transport to meet 2038 targets.

10. •
•
•
•
•

15. Diane Coyle (Chair)
Bennett Professor of Public
Policy, University of Cambridge
Professor Ed Glaeser
Professor of Economics at
Harvard University
Stephanie Flanders
Head of Bloomberg Economics
Professor Henry Overman
Professor of Economic
Geography at the London School
of Economics
Professor Mariana Mazzucato
Professor in the Economics of
Innovation at University College
London
Darra Singh
Government & Public Sector
Lead at Ernst & Young
• Commissioned to provide a detailed and
rigorous assessment of the current state, and
future potential, of Greater Manchester’s
economy
• Delivered under the leadership of a panel of
experts
• Commenced in 2019, ten years on from the
path-breaking Manchester Independent
Economic Review
• Provides a fresh understanding of what needs
to be done to improve productivity and drive
prosperity across the city region
Greater Manchester Independent Prosperity Review

16. Launching latest GMIPR Evidence Update
• Evidence update is a timely revisit of the
recommendations and evidence in light of:
➢ Covid-19 impacts
➢ Emerging understanding of the impact of the Brexit
➢ Energy and inflation shock
➢ Alongside urgent need to respond to the increasing
climate emergency and longstanding poverty and
deprivation across the city region
• Input from panellists and other experts has been
invaluable in steering this work
• The Evidence Update will inform the refresh of Greater
Manchester’s Industrial Strategy which is underway
• Evidence Update available www.greatermanchester-
ca.gov.uk

17. New
Research
Reports
Carbon Neutrality Health
Inequalities
Productivity and the
business base
The labour
market
Skill utilisation and
employer investment
in skills
Trade
Transport
Summary Reflections Report
Evidence Update Research Programme

18. Key messages. Productivity Matters
- Productivity improvements are essential to delivering the
economic growth, higher wages and better-quality jobs
that will raise living standards across Greater Manchester
- Latest ONS data highlights Greater Manchester as one of
the biggest improvers on productivity performance, but the
city region still lags behind the UK average
- Improving productivity performance relies on a number of
factors including health, wellbeing, and the environment

19. Growth of productivity in Greater Manchester and UK 2004-2020 (indexed to 2019)
Source: ONS sub-regional productivity
Better res
image
requested
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GVA per hour worked 2004 - 2020 , index = 2019
UK less Extra-Regio Greater Manchester

20. - Compelling evidence on significant negative impact poor
health outcomes has on productivity from the research
- 75% of the variance in employment rates across the
neighbourhoods of GM is accounted for by health
- In parts of the city-region, the research finds that nearly a
third of the working age population were inactive at the end
of 2021, ill health a key factor in explaining this
(unemployment trends at LA level are strikingly different)
- Growth opportunities from health innovation and the
economic determinants of (mental and physical) health need
to be embedded in the refreshed Local Industrial Strategy
Health is fundamental and this has been
reinforced by Covid-19 pandemic

21. Economic inactivity, 16-64 year olds, Jan-Dec 2019 - Jan-Dec 2021
Source: Annual Population Survey

22. Unemployment 16+ year olds, Jan-Dec 2019 - Jan-Dec 2021
Source: Annual Population Survey
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Unemployment
rate
(%;
16+)
Unemployment rate (16+)
Jan-Dec 2019 Jan-Dec 2021

23. Transition to Net Zero needs to accelerate
- System wide accelerated decarbonisation is needed and is
not yet on track towards carbon neutrality by 2038
- The growth opportunities from decarbonisation within the low
carbon frontier sector have not been fully realised yet.
Innovation GM, is well placed to support with this
- Significant innovation, infrastructure and skills investment is
required particularly in construction(retrofit) and transport
- £64 billion investment is needed for GM to reach carbon
neutrality by 2038 in relation to the energy system alone
- Role of cities is about convening change and nurturing the
conditions for innovation rather than directly funding/ directing

24. GM’s carbon emissions (since 2018) compared to the suggested pathway to a carbon neutral
city-region in 2038.
Source: Greater Manchester's carbon emissions (since 2018) compared to the suggested pathway to a carbon neutral city-
region in 2038. Blue carbon budget from the Tyndall Centre, and actual emissions estimates from BEIS (2022)

25. Next Steps
• The research is informing the refresh of Greater
Manchester’s Local Industrial Strategy
• Follow up research is already being planned
including analysis of newly experimental data
from ONS to better understand business
investment in Greater Manchester alongside the
What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth