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移动互联网产业分析 梁文静
- 1. PapayaMobile Overview 梁文静 PapayaMobile Inc
- 2. 第13期： 《移动互联网社交网络、社交游戏之技术架 构和市场分析》-木瓜移动专场 www.LAMPER.cn QQ群： 83304912 http://weibo.com/lampercn
- 3. Papaya no longermakes games 2010.01 – 300万 2010.01 – 5500万 Game Sessions: 1,150,000,000 (10亿+) Pmails: 274,000,000 (3亿) Posts on circles：2,851,645 （300万） Goods Transactions: 14,701,527 （1500万）
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- 6. PART 1 移动产业之 社交游戏用户分析
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- 26. PART 2 移动产业之 社交游戏市场分析
- 27. 中国移动游戏市场总揽 TV based PC based Mobile phone/pad based 单机游戏 端游（downloadable network WAP games (Java/C) – 中国市场固有的瓶颈 games) – 流量及支付多受运营商所控中国 – 由于其他类型游戏的介入而使市 – 80% MMORPG – 移动控制了一半的市场 场缩小 – 运营是关键 – 高峰时期市场规模 ~￥3B – Top 6 player, >￥1B yearly revenue – 腾讯，空中，掌趣，斯凯, etc – 市场增长滞慢 App games – 多切入点 智能电视游戏 页游（web games) – CP 所得分成高 – 相关技术的兴起 – 兴起于2008 并发展快速h – 游戏内部广告 – 产链多被运营商受控 – VC 2007-2009活跃参与 – CP 多掌控用户 – 社交游戏：多依靠平台 – MMO: 运营重要性 – 单机/flash 游戏 HTML5 games – 技术尚未成熟 (浏览器) – 开放平台，门槛低 – App games 潜在转换 For Internal Use Only 27
- 28. 国内手游市场规模 For Internal UseOnly 28 Source:易观国际，2011 年第4 季度中国手机游戏市场行业数据,中国手机游戏市场趋势预测2010-2013
- 29. 移动游戏三大分类 WAP App HTML5 Game access •Operator(移动梦 •App store/market •Search 网） •Social platform •Portal/browser •Portal(UC, 3G, etc) •In-game •Social platform •Pre-install referral/ads •Pre-install •Search Payment •Operator •Apple store •Least regulated •Social platform •Social platform •Tech not ready •Android-China User ownership • Mainly operator •App store/market •Social platform •Social games •Social games •Social platform CP profit sharing • 30% • 70% for app store •Close to web games Content •Low quality •High quality •Mid-high quality differentiation •Little difference •Much difference •Much difference Key challenge •Access points •Payment •Timeline For Internal Use Only 29
- 30. 移动应用游戏的分类 Heavy MMO RPG/SLG: 二 战、江湖行 Strategy/SL Gambling: Zynga poker 动作 G: 体育 三国塔防 SLG: Crime 射击 坦克大战 city, iMobsters 竞赛 僵尸 街游 Single 音乐 Social Puzzle: Cut ropes Birds Social games: farmvile, zoo, 地铁总动员 胡莱三国，奇迹之城 Card and board Light For Internal Use Only 30
- 31. 游戏类别典型代表 Hardcore Premium Free Casual For Internal Use Only 31
- 32. 中国iOS前20名的游戏 Category # of games Games Card and Board - Puzzle 3 Zombie，Where is my water Action 4 Infinity， Asphalt，Fruit Ninja, King of fighters Strategy/SLG 1 三国塔防 Social games 4 胡莱三国，开心水族箱，摩尔庄园，Smurfs SLG online games 3 掌上三国， Japan life, Galaxy empire, Gambling 1 Texas poker MMO RPG/SLG 4 二战风云，神仙道，Dungeon Hunter, 江湖行 • 挺多成功手游是web game的拓展版 For Internal Use Only 32
- 33. VC支撑的中国移动游戏公司 Cross Game Company Game type Investors PC/Mobile categories 顽石 Yes App MMO/Social 挚信资本/成为/IDG资本 胡莱 Yes App Social 红杉，腾讯 摩尔庄园（淘米） Yes App Social 启明，Saban capital 博雅 Yes App Cards 红杉中国 摩卡世界 Yes App Social/SLG 海纳亚洲 恺英网络 Yes App Social/SLG 凯鹏华盈/经纬创投/清科创投 Redatoms No App Music/SLG GSR Animoca Yes App Social 英特尔投资 TipCat Yes App Puzzle/action 红杉中国 涂鸦移动 No App Social 凯鹏华盈/创新工场/清科创投 木瓜移动 No App Social 凯旋创投/DCM 梦龙移通 No App Action 达晨创投 啪嗒游戏 Yes App Social 创新工场 3G游游 No App Action/Puzzle 银泰资本/招商和腾 盈趣信息 No App Puzzle 晨兴创投 • 9 out of 15 companies offer games across PC browser and mobile platform • 10 out of 15 are social related games For Internal Use Only 33
- 34. 移动游戏典型代表分类 Heavy 顽石 Redato m 梦龙 Redato 摩卡世 3G游游 m 界 TipCat Single TipCat Social 胡莱 恺英 摩尔庄 啪嗒游 博雅 园 戏 木瓜移 盈趣信 涂鸦移 动 息 动 Animoca Light For Internal Use Only 34
- 35. 市场份额 Keytone Ventures For Internal Use Only 35
- 36. 单机游戏 VS 社交游戏 Game profit Social games Console games Launch date Timeline For Internal Use Only 36
- 37. Console games Social (web/mobile) # of package sales and 1. Life time revenue “Hit” definition revenue 2. User activity (DAU) 3-12 months for social games Game development cycle 24+ months 12-24 months for MMO $0.5-1M for social games Game development cost $10M or more $1M+ for MMO Package sales, mainly in the Revenue collection Operation intensive, ROI tuning each month first quarter
- 38. Zynga vs. EA/Blizzard Zynga as a reference (Q3-2011) Games DAU Texas poker 6,300,000 Farm ville 7,300,000 City ville 10,400,000 Empire allies 3,200,000 Top 7 of 17-20 games Word w/ frieds 5,900,000 count for 75% of the Pioneer trail 1,700,000 activity Castle ville 8,300,000 Total 58,000,000 Console game as a reference Q3-2011 Total 1M+ 1M+ seller Comments games seller % of total rev EA 322 99 74% 1/3 games count for 3/4 income Blizzard 285 43 74% 1/6 games count for 3/4 income For Internal Use Only 38
- 39. 几种主流流行趋势 • 跨平台 • 成熟的产品及品牌影响力 • Ex. 胡莱， 二战风云, etc • 由一两款成功游戏引发出的类别 • 持续发布相似主题或类别游戏已保有用户活跃 • Ex. farm ville ，6 款多 “ville-style” 游戏 • 复制一款成功游戏并发展为多款不同主题游戏 • 用同一引擎开发的多款性质不表只是主题不同的游戏 • Ex. Storm 8 发布的5 款游戏 (war, gunster, pets, racing, vampire) 核心都不变 • 成功游戏开始尝试建社交平台 • 利用现有用户基础建立社交平台，像GREE的模式 • Ex. 胡莱社区, PAPAYA • 游戏开发者开始为HTML5做准备 • 发展技术使应用与HTML5 浏览器逐渐趋于融合 For Internal Use Only 39
- 40. 支付及收入分成情况 Platform Studio Payment tools Facebook 30% 70% Facebook Tencent 0% 100% <￥100K/mon Tencent 30% 70% <￥1M/mon 50% 50% <￥10M/mon 60% 40% <￥30M/mon 70% 30% >￥30M/mon Renren 52~44% 48%~56% Renren 1st year free if use SDK Weibo 30% 70% Weibo 1st year free Apple store 30% 70% Apple Android market 30% 70% Open For Internal Use Only 40
- 41. Social Gaming Market Social is Mobile * Source: Super Data Research
- 42. Social Gaming Market 社交网络的使 用率居最高， 占到45.7%，目 前排第一
- 43. Social Gaming Market 北美用户愿意购买 虚拟物品的游戏类 别排名，前四中和 social相关的占到 两项，免费游戏内 付费排名靠前
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- 45. Virtual Goods Growth 虚拟物品市场的增长 11年通过虚拟物品获得的收入 超6.5亿美元，12年8亿左右
- 46. Global Virtual GoodsMarket
- 47. Why Mobile SocialGaming? • Highly profitable business model low costs of development, customer acquisition (through social networks), and publishing (no physical product) • Lower risk R&D - social games can be rolled out much more quickly with smaller budgets and development teams. Since games are played as a service delivered over Internet, developers can utilize real-time customer activity to access and modify components of games throughout game’s life. Publisher can use data to decide whether to continue investing in a game or kill the project (reinforce winners and cut losses on losers). Average cost $550k vs $10m on console device • Zynga has no inherent advantage on Mobile – lack of dominating market share, lack of high quality content to drive acceptance • Xbox Live have proven that players want to play their games with other people $750 million in revene ($60/year subscription fee) why not on mobile? • Many console publishers are struggling to adapt to online/mobile Keytone Ventures For Internal Use Only 47
- 48. Thanks liangwenjing@papayamobile.com Sina weibo:papaya文静