The document summarizes a methodology for mapping poverty levels spatially using small area estimation. It combines household survey data with census data to generate expenditure estimates for whole populations. Models are applied to Vietnam and Laos data, showing highest poverty rates in remote rural highlands but most poor living in deltas and coasts. While producing spatially disaggregated estimates, the method has limitations such as reliability below commune level and difficulties with frequent updates due to data needs.

1. CCR “North-South”
petence in Research - NC
Welfare distributions
in space
R
Spatial Patterns of Poverty
Swiss National Cen of Comp
in Vietnam and Laos
nter
Michael Epprecht
N
Chiang Mai; October 31 - November 2 2007
2,

2. ‘Measuring’ Poverty
Expenditure approach
total household per capita consumption,
including the value of home production
Poverty Rate
(share of population below a specific
‘poverty line’)
poverty line )

3. Spatial aspects of human welfare
Poverty map of
Vietnam:
Vi t
» Based on 1998 VLSS Poverty rate
(% of population
» Sample of 6000 below the
poverty line)
t li )
households
Representative at
regional level only

4. Small Area Estimation
Combine information from two data sources to
generate expenditure data for the whole population:
Sample survey data, and Census data
» Use household survey data to predict household per capita
expenditure using household characteristics
» Apply coefficients to same household characteristics in
census
sample survey data set census data set
» Aggregate from household to -“small area” such as district
v1 v’1
- β1 β1
or -commune2
v2 β - v’2 β2
... y ... ^
y
βn βn
- vn - v’n

5. Model applied to Vietnam
Household size and Housing
composition
p » House type
» Household size » Living area
» Proportion of elderly
» Type of roof
» Proportion of children
» Type of floor
f fl
» Proportion of females
» Type of water source
Education
» Type of toilet
» Education of head of household
» Electricity
» Education of spouse
Characteristics of head of Ownership of assets
household
h h ld » Radio
» Ethnicity » Television
» Occupation Location
» Urban/Rural
» Elevation and coordinates

6. Poverty in Vietnam
and L
d Laos

7. Where are the poor?
ABSOLUTEdensity of
Population number
PERCENTAGE of
people below poverty
p pp
population below y
p
line
poverty line
(“poverty density”)
(poverty incidence)

8. Poverty rates & poverty density
Althoughg
upland areas
have higher
poverty rate
rate,
most of the poor
live in deltas
and along coast
d l t
Poverty
assistance
ss s ce
should not be
limited to
poorest areas

9. Poverty in Laos

10. The geography of poverty and inequality
Poverty rates highest in
“remote rural highlands”
g

11. Poverty rates
ethnic
majorities minorities

12. Poverty rates
Spatial variation
in l ti hi
i relationships:
Influence of
annual rainfall
on district-level poverty
incidence.

13. Conclusions - Methodology
Poverty mapping method
y pp g
» Statistical method produces
spatially highly disaggregated estimates of
p y g y gg g
poverty that
are generally considered to be more
g y
reliable and consistent than those from
the administrative reporting system

14. Conclusions - Methodology
Poverty mapping method (cont.)
y pp g ( )
» But, the method:
does not produce reliable information below
p
the commune/ village level
combination with local participatory approaches
p p y pp
is very data intensive, i.e. cannot easily be
updated frequently
limitations of the method in the face of mass
migration (maps qu c y ou d ed?)
g o ( ps quickly outdated?)

15. Acknowledgements
Vietnam:
Minot, N.; Baulch, B. and Epprecht, M. (2006)
Poverty and inequality in Vietnam — Spatial
Patterns and geographic determinants. IFPRI
research report #148 International Food Policy
#148,
Research Institute, Washington DC.
http://www.ifpri.org/PUBS/abstract/rr148.asp
p fp g p
Laos:
DRAFT RESULTS of a project on
‘Poverty mapping in Lao PDR’
please do not quote or reproduce