Presented at UX Brighton 2018: Advancing Research, 2nd November 2018.

1. ??
??
Some ABCs of
ForecastingPresentation to
UX Brighton
@JamesWoudhuysen
November 2018

2. Welcome to Europe!

11. 1 Future UXers = CDOs

13. Why agility
now?

14. Why agility now?
• Rise of agile software,
DevOps, ResearchOps
• Start-ups: free of silos,
can keep options open,
can take quick decisions

15. ??
??Value of worldwide M&A, 2003-17,
$bn
Source: Statista/IDC, 2018, https://www.statista.com/statistics/267369/volume-of-mergers-and-acquisitions-
worldwide/

16. Why agility now?
• Rise of agile software, DevOps
• Start-ups: free of silos, can keep
options open and take quick decisions
• Buoyant Mergers and Acquisitions

18. Why agility now?
• Rise of agile software, DevOps
• Start-ups: free of silos, can keep
options open and take quick decisions
• Buoyant Mergers and Acquisitions
Geopolitical and market
volatility

19. From the early C15 , it
meant
• nimbleness
• dexterity
• sinuousness
Agility: first principles
From agere, Latin for ‘to do’
th

22. Samuel Johnson (1709-84): have the
quality of being speedily put in motion

23. Agility: first principles
Not just physical speed
with joints and
limbs, but also being
mentally quick, alert,
acute, discerning,
anticipating

27. ??
??
Legitimacy
crisis

28. ??
??
OrganisationUndone by Date
NSA Edward Snowden 2013
VW Fake emissions 2015
“Fat Four” accountants Audit, etc 2013-6
Samsung, BT, Barclays Bribes, lazyness, fraud
2017
Royal Boro K&C Criminal negligence, Grenfell 2017
Airbus Industrie Corruption 2017
UK Home Office Windrush mendacity 2017-8
Lafarge Pay to play – with ISIS 2018
Legitimacy
crisis

29. EU wages set for stagnation
No clear corporate strategy/goals, or Plan B
for
1. Supply-chain disruption in the face of
the New Protectionism
2. Reputation management in the face of a
fire, cyber-attack
3. Problems: power supply, IT, commuting
4. Problems: air quality and flooding
Legitimacy
crisis

33. 1 Future UXers = CDOs
• Given the vogue for agility,
Forecasting will be vital
• Given the crisis of
legitimacy & leadership,
UXers will move up and
add Strategy to Tactics

34. ???

35. Carl von Clausewitz, 1780-1831

36. What do I do back at the
office?A. Read beyond UX
B. The Big Picture is key
C. Interrogate categories
D. Think history,
inflections

38. 2Research: customer
Goals

40. ??
??Key thinktanks on future
consumers

41. EU consumers fear the future, but a bit less

42. ??
??2Research: customer Goa
Both private and public
data mainly treat
Attitudes,
Behaviour and
Circumstances, not
underlying Goals

43. A world of talents, not just
needs

44. ???? ????,
1908-70

45. Abraham Maslow, 1908-
70
His ‘hierarchy of needs’
was much more subtle
than people make out
He noted ‘the desire to
know… understand...
systematise... organise...
analyse... look for relations
and meanings’
‘A theory of human need’, Psychological Review,
September 1943

46. ??
??2Research: customer Goa
Both private and public data mainly
treat Attitudes, Behaviour and
Circumstances, not underlying
Goals… so
E. Goals => human
talent and purpose,
not just needs

48. 3 Resist the
buzzwords

51. The Buddha of Balmoral

53. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe

56. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption

57. ??
??
1963: Doug Englebart invents the
mouse.
First demo of remote online search.
‘stakeholders’ emerge in an SRI internal
memo

60. Ronnie

63. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders

66. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders
4 Seamless

68. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders
4 Seamless
5 The ‘Xxxx’ space

69. “AI is already all around us... AI
is among us already”

71. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders
4 Seamless
5 The ‘Xxxx’ space
6 AI is everywhere

72. Globally, young workers run scared
of IT
Source: Verint, Defining the Human Age: A Reflection on Customer Service in 2030, 2018,

73. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders
4 Seamless
5 The ‘Xxxx’ space
6 AI is everywhere
7 Digital-native tech-savvy
millennials

77. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders
4 Seamless
5 The ‘Xxxx’ space
6 AI is everywhere
7 Digital-native tech-savvy
millennials

80. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders
4 Seamless
5 The ‘Xxxx’ space
6 AI is everywhere
7 Digital-native tech-savvy
millennials
8 Sharing economy

84. Bad concepts,
20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
2 Exponential disruption
3 Stakeholders
4 Seamless
5 The ‘Xxxx’ space
6 AI is everywhere
7 Digital-native tech-savvy millennials
8 Sharing economy
9 Wellness
10 Happiness

85. In its own legitimacy crisis – the
‘techlash’ – IT now gets 5 bad raps:
• kills jobs
• trigger to a Wall St Crash
• causes addiction
• manipulates the stupid
• gets hacked

87. ??
??
OrganisationUndone by Date
CC details of e-shoppers Welsh teen 2001
Iran Israel/US Stuxnet 2010
LinkedIn Posted on hacker forum, Russia 2012/6
US university professors Mabna Inst, Iran 2013 on
JP Morgan Gery Shalon 2014
Sony North Korea 2014
Home Depot, eBay ??? 2014
Democratic National Committee Russia/??? 2016
FBI & DHS agents, CIA head UK teen 2016
UK NHS North Korea 2017
Equifax ??? 2017
Ticketmaster, British Airways Magecart 2018
Some key hacks

88. Work: deeper & less noticed
change1. How to Manage Your Manager
2. 360-degree Appraisal
3. Not Winding Up In Court Because Of
Duty-Of-Care Responsibilities
4. Not Being Seen To Let your Mates
Down
5. Acting Up (But With No Increase in

90. What do I do back at the
office?
F. Always remember:
the sociology of
the future is more
vital than its
technology

92. 4 Interrogate Risk

94. ??
??
Panic Date
Millennium Bug 1997
Saddam Hussein has WMD 2003
Bird flu on Wall Street 2006
WHO: swine flu °5 pandemic 2009
Prince Charles: 8 years to save the Earth 2009
Fukushima ≠>no more nuclear 2011
Your kettle can be hacked 2016
Trump = fascism 2017
IPCC: sea to rise <1cm pa to 2100 2018
‘We’re all doomed!’

96. An ABC of health
panicsADHD, Anorexia, Bird flu
Computer games
Disco TB, DVT
Endocrine disruptors, E. coli
Fracking, GM foods
Secondhand smoke
MMR vaccines
Orthorexia
Pthalates, PLASTICS
Red meat, roast potatoes,
puddings

98. 1. Antibiotics
2. Fossil fuels, nuclear, Severn Barrage
3. Red meat, sugar, fast/GM food, foie
gras
4. HS2, new roads, new runways
5. Hate speech, tabloid newspapers, lads’
mags, trolls, unrealistic body images
6. Payday lenders, US tax evaders
Russia, China, Israel, Hungary,
What bien-pensant Brits wanna
ban

99. Barriers to
innovation
Capex, financialisation, shareholders
Short-termism, C-suite rewards, silos
Sunk costs, patents,
regulation
‘You can’t do that’ (FDs,

100. Barriers to
automation
Technical feasibility
Cost to build & deploy HW, SW
Low wages
Weak improvements in quality
Regulation, social

101. What do I do back at the
office?G. Distinguish real risks
from imagined ones
H. Make experiments
prototypes to end
uncertainty, quantify
risk

103. 5 To what places
is innovation
bound?

114. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14
2000-14
Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’

115. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14
2000-14
Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’

116. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14
2000-14
Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’

117. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14
2000-14
Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’

118. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14
2000-14
Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’

119. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14
2000-14
Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’

120. China robots, thousands: the scope for growth

125. What do I do back at the
office?I. Read more on Asia.
Use (you don’t have to
believe) China Daily

127. 6 Algebra beats
arithmetic

129. J. Do rate
forecasting
algebra higher
than forecasting
arithmetic
What do I do back at the office?

131. 7 Synthesise
tendencies &
counter-
tendencies

132. The power of the voice

136. The power of the voice.
BUT…

137. Can I hear myself think,
let alone hear who I’m calling?

138. Acoustics: now hear this

140. ??
??

141. Oldies face special problems
Acoustics: now hear this

145. Oldies face special problems
Kia’s sound-zones will come
Digital Twins, Google Earth will
add user soundscapes
Start from users,
not the office fabric
Acoustics: now hear this

147. ??
??
8 Conclusion

148. Hassabis: not Artificial Intelligence, but
enhanced Human intelligence

151. ??
??
What IT can’t do
1. Straighten a pile of magazines
2. Pick & place products on shop
shelves
3. Tell a good joke, have a new idea,
fall in love
4. Judge art, ethics, people, politics,
religion
Be self-conscious,

152. One thing they’ll never automate

154. ABCs of forecasting
1 UXers = CDOs
2 Research customer Goals
3 Resist the buzzwords
4 Interrogate Risk
5 Look east to Asia
6 Algebra beats arithmetic
7 Synthesise tendencies and
counter-tendencies

155. Thank you!
@JamesWoudhuysen
Woudhuysen.com