This document discusses scenario planning for Eli Lilly & Co. to explore different possible futures for the pharmaceutical industry over the next 7 years. Four initial scenarios were developed based on two key uncertainties: political landscape in the US and progress of embryonic stem cell research. The scenarios range from a revolutionary transformation of the medical industry with stem cell breakthroughs, to the status quo where no changes occur. Analyzing these scenarios can help Eli Lilly prepare for challenges and opportunities in the uncertain industry environment. Further research is needed to refine understanding of the scenarios and develop quantitative planning methods.
The Walt Disney: The Entertainment KingAnuj Poddar
This case is comprised of the company's history, from 1923 to 2001. The Walt years are described, as is the company's decline after his death and its resurgence under Eisner, some topics are devoted to Eisner's strategic challenges in 2001: managing synergy, managing the brand, and managing creativity. The case was written by Michael G. Rukstad and David Collis
The case was uploaded with a Walt Disney font, but Slideshare was not able to detect that
The Walt Disney: The Entertainment KingAnuj Poddar
This case is comprised of the company's history, from 1923 to 2001. The Walt years are described, as is the company's decline after his death and its resurgence under Eisner, some topics are devoted to Eisner's strategic challenges in 2001: managing synergy, managing the brand, and managing creativity. The case was written by Michael G. Rukstad and David Collis
The case was uploaded with a Walt Disney font, but Slideshare was not able to detect that
This is a HBS case study about P&G's new product launching strategy. In this case I am responsible for survey data analysis and project financial analysis.
Manzana Insurance is the second largest insurance company founded in California in 1902. • They operated through a network of autonomous branch offices in California, Oregon and Washington. Each branch is treated as a separate profit and loss centre. • Manzana does not directly interact with public but instead has its 2000 agents who represents Manzana. • Fruitvale was one of the Manzana’s smaller branches, with 3 underwriting teams and 76 agents. Our case concern is the falling performance and hence the profitability on Property Insurance for this branch.
Haier: Taking a chinese company global in 2011Ilaria Fiore
Corporate strategy for HAIER business case. This presentation is based exclusively on informations and data provided in Harvard Business School's case study "Haier: Taking a chinese company global in 2011" and Wikipedia.
The presentation provides information about Haier, evaluates the situation, problems and opportunities of the company; then it describes the possible options avaiable to Haier and selects the best, according to the group's ideas.
This slideshow was created to showcase the marketing research involved in the strategic decision-making process. This presentation represents a decision for the marketing team at Barco Projection Systems, on how to combat the incoming Sony 1270 projector model. This presentation includes a brief history, situation analysis, options for Barco, and an ultimate decision based on this research. This Powerpoint presentation was completed for a Marketing Management & Strategy course.
corporate strategy
Newell started as Curtain rod manufacturer in 1902
1917 – Supplier to Woolworth stores
1921 – Leonard Ferguson at Newell, Owner in 1937
1950 – Dan Ferguson (son of Leonard and Stanford MBA) as CEO. Revenue 10 mln
1967 – First Strategy for Newell – Focus as market for hardware and do-it-yourself products to volume merchandisers
1969 – First non-drapery hardware acquisition
1972 - Public Company – Funding for new products by acquisition
Two-Pronged Strategy
Manufacture low-technology, nonseasonal, noncyclical, nonfaschionable products for volume retailers by acquisition and then streamlining, focussing and making the division profitable, increasing operating margins > 15%
Strategy for consolidation and centralization to achieve effectivess
Changed strategy for individual divisions responsible for manufacturing and marketing but was centrally controlled by admin, legal and treasury systems
1997 – Revenues of 3.23 billion. Clients like Walmart which gave 15% of business, top 10 clients accounting for 40% business
Through 1997, 10 year average return to investors 31% (Vs S&P 500 only 18%)
This is a HBS case study about P&G's new product launching strategy. In this case I am responsible for survey data analysis and project financial analysis.
Manzana Insurance is the second largest insurance company founded in California in 1902. • They operated through a network of autonomous branch offices in California, Oregon and Washington. Each branch is treated as a separate profit and loss centre. • Manzana does not directly interact with public but instead has its 2000 agents who represents Manzana. • Fruitvale was one of the Manzana’s smaller branches, with 3 underwriting teams and 76 agents. Our case concern is the falling performance and hence the profitability on Property Insurance for this branch.
Haier: Taking a chinese company global in 2011Ilaria Fiore
Corporate strategy for HAIER business case. This presentation is based exclusively on informations and data provided in Harvard Business School's case study "Haier: Taking a chinese company global in 2011" and Wikipedia.
The presentation provides information about Haier, evaluates the situation, problems and opportunities of the company; then it describes the possible options avaiable to Haier and selects the best, according to the group's ideas.
This slideshow was created to showcase the marketing research involved in the strategic decision-making process. This presentation represents a decision for the marketing team at Barco Projection Systems, on how to combat the incoming Sony 1270 projector model. This presentation includes a brief history, situation analysis, options for Barco, and an ultimate decision based on this research. This Powerpoint presentation was completed for a Marketing Management & Strategy course.
corporate strategy
Newell started as Curtain rod manufacturer in 1902
1917 – Supplier to Woolworth stores
1921 – Leonard Ferguson at Newell, Owner in 1937
1950 – Dan Ferguson (son of Leonard and Stanford MBA) as CEO. Revenue 10 mln
1967 – First Strategy for Newell – Focus as market for hardware and do-it-yourself products to volume merchandisers
1969 – First non-drapery hardware acquisition
1972 - Public Company – Funding for new products by acquisition
Two-Pronged Strategy
Manufacture low-technology, nonseasonal, noncyclical, nonfaschionable products for volume retailers by acquisition and then streamlining, focussing and making the division profitable, increasing operating margins > 15%
Strategy for consolidation and centralization to achieve effectivess
Changed strategy for individual divisions responsible for manufacturing and marketing but was centrally controlled by admin, legal and treasury systems
1997 – Revenues of 3.23 billion. Clients like Walmart which gave 15% of business, top 10 clients accounting for 40% business
Through 1997, 10 year average return to investors 31% (Vs S&P 500 only 18%)
This is part of the MaRS BioEntrepreneurship series.
Speaker: Lynne Zydowsky, Ph.D., Managing Principal Zydowsky Consultants
* Explore the development of regulated drugs and devices
* Understand where and how value is generated in the pharmaceuticals industry
* Appreciate the interplay between science and business in a biotech company
To download a copy of the audio for this presentation, please go to:
http://www.marsdd.com/bioent/oct16
For the event blog and Q+A, please see:
http://blog.marsdd.com/2006/10/17/bringing-together-art-and-science/
Ethical dilemmas concerning drug pricing-Shrinath GhadgeShrinath Ghadge
There is no straightforward solution to the proper pricing of a pharmaceutical. Numerous factors influence pricing from the company perspective such as return on investment, costs of future R&D efforts, access to federal funding, and size of the patient population, to name a few. In addition the healthcare system in the US is generally much more expensive than other countries, driving up overall costs. A public distrust of pharmaceutical companies' greed has been fueled by recent cases of exorbitant increases in drug prices without clear cause. These instances do raise questions of the ethics employed by some companies
IIBMS ANSWER SHEETS
IIBMS MBA CASE STUDY ANSWER SHEETS -
IIBMS MBA CASE STUDY SOLUTIONS -
IIBMS EMBA CASE STUDY ANSWER SHEETS -
IIBMS EMBA CASE STUDY SOLUTIONS -
IIBMS DMS CASE STUDY ANSWER SHEETS -
IIBMS DMS CASE STUDY SOLUTIONS -
IIBMS MMS CASE STUDY ANSWER SHEETS -
IIBMS MIB CASE STUDY SOLUTIONS -
MBA IIBMS ANSWER SHEETS -
EMBA IIBMS CASE STUDY SOLUTIONS -
ACADEMIC WRITING SERVICES -
Global Study Solutions -
Dr. Aravind Banakar -
aravind.banakar@gmail.com -
www.mbacasestudyanswers.com -
9901366442 – 9902787224
Bioinformatix' Rx&You: Enterprise Intelligence for MedicationsBioinformatix LLC
RX&YOU: A DIGITAL HEALTH SOLUTION DELIVERING BILLIONS IN VALUE
We are inventing the future of medication healthcare by combining five technologies to rank the efficacy of every regimen at genomic levels while simultaneously maximizing care quality and reducing costs by billions of dollars.
FOUR GLOBAL & MULTI BILLION $ PROBLEMS IN DIGITAL HEALTH:
1. MEDICATION NON-ADHERENCE – “Drugs don’t work in patients who don’t take them,” said US Surgeon General, and an est. 50% of patients don’t, costing an est. $535 billion in preventable medical expenses. According to WHO “increasing the effectiveness of adherence interventions may have a far greater impact on [population] health than any improvement in specific medical treatments.”
2. ADVERSE EVENTS – 180K patients die per year in the US from adverse medication events and interactions, making it the 4th leading cause of death. FDA, and soon 27 states, have begun requiring e-reporting of adverse events.
3. CARE COORDINATION – The average American sees 18 providers as an adult with older and sicker patients seeing an average of 28 with prescriptions from many pharmacies. Healthcare now requires a team; however, providers don’t have visibility to each other, much less what they’re prescribing and doing for their common patients.
4. PERSONALIZED MEDICINE - Comparative effectiveness research (CAR) is a Holy Grail of modern medicine – to learn which regimens are most efficacious, safest, and the best value, then to determine it more precisely based on patients’ genomic variants. Rx&You can do this and be a codex of the era of personalized medicine.
SOLUTION:
Our cloud platform ingests and collects streams of patient data, including from the IoT, transforms it into meaning, and acts. Patients receive alerts, in their preferred ways, when and how to take medications, while interactions are prevented via 100% screening, and they e-report adverse events in real-time. Providers receive team-wide reports and real-time alerts from AI rules and predictive analytics enabling them to intervene to prevent expensive medical consequences by getting the right info to who needs it most at the right times.
A Smart (connected) Hotel is more than implementing WOW factors, it should have the capability to ensure hoteliers to achieve top business goals such as saving operating cost and streamlining operations. Emerging technologies such as IoT and analytics realise the vision of Smart Connected Hotel.
Healthcare Landscape and Connected Health Trend of SingaporeYee Jie NG
This deck describes the current healthcare landscape and technology trends in Singapore. It also highlights the global trend and expert's recommendation.
IoT@Home aims to demonstrate how wearable and sensor technologies at home can be leveraged to help improve the home living experience, illustrated by better wellness management and enabling active ageing. It also serves to show how these technologies can help promote the development of a broader ecosystem of businesses, by highlighting the rich possibilities enabled by sensor data.
Scenario and Strategic Planning: A Case Study of Eli Lily & Co.
1. Scenario and Strategic Planning
Eli Lilly & Co.
● CHEE LIUNG WUN ● LIM SHIEH CHERN ● NG YEE JIE ●
2. Preface
• Scenario planning is a tool that can be used to
– Explore the impact of different possible futures for
pharmaceutical industry.
– Help to avoid overlooking important opportunities
and major threats
• This can be done by analysing rapid, turbulent
and uncertain shift in the industry environment,
thus the survival of Eli Lilly in the pharmaceutical
industry
4. The Company - Eli Lilly & Co.
4
AboutUs
Global,
research-based
pharmaceutical
company and
one of the
world's largest
corporations.
Origin
Founded in
1876 by a
retired colonel
& Pharmacist,
Eli Lilly. Global
headquarter in
Indianapolis,
United States
Mission
To makes
medicines that
help people live
longer,
healthier, more
active lives
Source : Eli Lilly and Company (www.lilly.com)
5. Eli Lilly & Co.
5
• Today, marketed in 143 countries, 9th largest pharmaceutical company in world.
Steadfastly remained independent, but not isolated. Global headquarters in
Indianapolis, United States
• Global employees’ number approximately 40,000, and its medicines are marketed in
143 countries.
• Major research and development facilities in 8 countries and conducts clinical trials in
more than 50 countries. Source : Eli Lilly and Company (www.lilly.com)
6. Scope and Time Frame
• 7 Years
Duration
• Corporate level, to identify possible challenges
Scope
• To maintain Eli Lilly’s position as one of the top ten
elite multinational pharmaceutical firms globally
Aim
7. Major Stakeholders
• Stakeholders
Internal Stakeholders – Management Team
External Stakeholders – Major suppliers, health care
providers, regulators and consultants into the process
8. Porter’s Five Forces (Current)
Threat of Substitute
Products
LOW
(Low Value, Risk)
Threat of New
Entrants
LOW
(Patent, regulatory
process & Dist
System)
Bargaining Power of
Buyers
LOW
(Insurance companies,
doctors‘& patients’
buying habit)
Bargaining Power of
Suppliers
LOW
(Multiple sources)
Rivalry Among
Competing Firms in
Industry
LOW
(Different niches &
Patent Protection)
9. Porter’s Five Forces (Trend)
Threat of Substitute
Products
MODERATE
(Embryonic Stem Cell,
Alternatives)
Threat of New
Entrants
MODERATE
(Increased Biotech
Firms)
Bargaining Power of
Buyers
MODERATE
(Buyer Consolidate,
government & hospitals
price sensitive)
Bargaining Power of
Suppliers
MODERATE
(Petrochemical cost )
Rivalry Among
Competing Firms in
Industry
HIGH
(Generics more
common, price pressure)
10. Basic Trends
Political
• United States
Political
Landscape
Economy
• Mergers and
Acquisitions
(M&A)
Socio
• Demographic
- Aging
Population
Legal
• Expiring Patents
and Stricter
Regulation
PESTLE
Analysis
11. United States Political Landscape
Fact
• In 2008,
Democrats won
the presidency
election
Before
• Republicans
protected
branded
pharmaceuticals
After
• Democrats
support generic
pharmaceuticals
12. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
Mutual Benefits
Sharing
Resources
Complement on
Product Pipelines
Work towards
blockbuster drugs
Self Benefits
Improve Sales Cut Cost
Increase
Competiveness
13. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
No Name of Company Merger/Acquisition Year
1 Bayer and Schering AG Acquisition 2006
2 Merck KG aA and Serono Acquisition 2006/2007
3 Nycomed and Altana Pharma Acquisition 2006/2007
4 UCB and Schwarz Pharma Acquisition 2007
5 Mitsubishi and Tanabe Merger 2007
6 Schering-Plough and Organon Acquisition 2007/2008
7 AstraZeneca and Medlmmune Acquisition 2007
8 Mylan and Merck Serono Acquisition 2007
9 Eisai and MGI Pharma Acquisition 2007/2008
10 Takeda and Millennium Acquisition 2008
11
Eli Lilly and ImClone Acquisition 2008
12 Daiichi-Sankyo and Ranbaxy Acquisition 2008
13 Pfizer and Wyeth Acquisition 2008
14 Merck and Schering-Plough
(currently on negotiation)
Merger 2009
List of M&A
undertaken
between
2006 - 2009
Source : Report: Mergers and Acquisitions in the Pharmaceuticals Sector, 2009
14. Demographic - Aging Population
The average expenditure for prescription drugs for people age 65 &
above increased 130%, rising from $819 in 1997 to $1,914 in 2004.
Source: Drug Spending Increases More Than 2.5 Times in 8 Years
15. Expiring Patents
15
“Many branded-name drugs lose patent protection will leading
to a WAVE of generic medications entering the market”
(Quoted from Article “Flooded Generic Pipeline Looms as Branded Patents Expire”)
About 183 of branded drugs will go
off patent starting 2009 until 2013
$60 billion worth of drugs are going
off by 2011
18. Emerging Disease
Emerging diseases like
SARS, Bird Flu, Aids & the
recent type A Influenza
H1N1
Roche who own the proprietary
drug, Tamiflu that can treat bird
flu & type A influenza H1N1 took
full advantage of the situation
Threaten human kind in the form of a
global pandemic
Share price of Roche skyrocketed & attracted
popular & media attention to the industry
19. Embryonic Stem Cell Research
• Able to replicate, divide and produce a
variety of specialized cells to repair human
body, cure disease, and alleviate suffering.
Capability
• Able to cure spinal cord injuries, multiple
sclerosis, diabetes, Parkinson's disease,
cancer, Alzheimer's disease, heart disease,
age-related macular degeneration, hundreds
of rare immune system and genetic disorders
Potential
20. Personalized Medicine & Health IT
Personalized Medicine
• Tailored to suit personal diagnostic requirement
• Aimed to prevent certain diseases and to treat illnesses specifically
• Knowing well ahead the conditions and heritage of body will
translate to prevention and lower healthcare bills
Proficient Use of Health Information Technology
• Health IT can create, store, transmit and manage individuals’ health
data to improve health care safety, cost and quality
• In addition, provides security and privacy of personal health
information
• Other technologies include EMR, EHR, PHR, HIE, PBHR, and e-
prescribing
21. Traditional Medicine
Traditional Chinese
Medicine
• TCM accounts for 38%
of medical products
produced in China in
2007 (Mustapha, 2009)
India’s Ayurveda
• 65% of Indian
population in rural areas
use Ayurveda and
medicinal plants to help
to meet their primary
healthcare need
22. Petrochemical Price
• Pharmaceutic
al products
are the
derivatives of
petrochemical
Overview
• World crude
oil prices
fluctuate
Situation
• Affect the
petrochemical
prices and in
turn will result
higher cost
of medicines
Resulted
23. Possible Scenario Variables
• Based on the above table, the two most important variables are
following:
– Political- United States Political Landscapes
– Embryonic Stem Cell Research
• Both scored the highest rating at 25 points.
25. New Revolutionary Transformation
of the Medical Industry
Description
• Embryonic stem cell
treatment becomes a
reality
• Government support
innovative and
branded drug
• Whole medical
industry would
experience an
explosive revolution
• New breakthroughs in
medical treatments
for uncured diseases
Impact
• Pharmaceutical firms
would continue to
invest heavily in R & D
for further new
innovations
• Diversify and undergo
M & A for
biotechnology
companies that are
specialized in
embryonic stem cell
research
26. The Renaissance of the
Pharmaceutical Industry
Description
• No progress in
embryonic stem
cell research
• Government
support innovative
and branded drug
Impact
• Pharmaceutical
firms still continue
to invest heavily in
R & D for further
new innovations
• Eli Lilly innovate
and invent new
drugs for emerging
diseases in order
to gain competitive
edge against the
other competitors
27. New Era of the Medical Industry
Description
• Government support
generics rather than
branded
pharmaceuticals
• Embryonic stem cell
research successfully
proves its
applicability in
medical treatment
• Embryonic stem cell
gains upper hand
over pharmaceutical
Impact
• Pharmaceutical firms
will be facing a
critical moment
• Eli Lilly should
seriously consider
diversifying into
biotechnology in
stem cell or undergo
M&A to stay
competitive in
pharmaceutical
industry
28. Status Quo of the Pharmaceutical
Industry
Description
• No progress in
embryonic stem cell
research
• No support from
government
• Pharmaceutical
industry remains the
same status quo
• Medical treatments
would only be using
old technologies or
the currently available
technologies.
Impact
• Branded and
innovative
pharmaceutical firms
would lose their
market share
• No further investment
in R & D as the ROI is
not attractive
• Eli Lilly needs to
reduce price and join
the price war with
generic drug’s
manufacturer
29. Consistency and Plausibility
• Are the scenarios plausible?
– The constructed scenarios are greatly plausible
– The next political election in five years may bring
change to the existing situation.
– Stem cell research is an emerging industry and the
future is highly anticipated
• Are the scenarios all challenging?
– All constructed scenarios possess a great challenge to
Eil Lily to survive and sustain its position as the top
multinational pharmaceutical firms
• Rate the importance of the scenarios
30. Rate the importance of the
scenarios
Variable Outcome Probability %
Political Government supports branded drugs 60%
Government supports generic drugs 40%
Embryonic Stem Cell Research Applicable 70%
Not applicable 30%
Scenario P(P) P(S) P(P and S) %P(P and S)
New Revolutionary
Transformation of
the Medical
Industry 0.6 0.7 0.42 42%
The Renaissance
of the
Pharmaceutical
Industry 0.6 0.3 0.18 18%
New Era of the
Medical Industry 0.4 0.7 0.28 28%
Status Quo of the
Pharmaceutical
Industry 0.4 0.3 0.12 12%
31. Identify Research Needs
• Identify whether embryonic stem cell research
will post real threat to the pharmaceutical firms
in the next seven year
• Study or know more about the political situation
33. Conclusion
• From scenario matrix unfolded four variables
scenario, Eli Lilly would be able to align basic
trends especially M&A that shape the future
pharmaceutical industry
• The “Explosive” New Revolution Medical Industry
appeared to be the highly rated scenario with the
probability outcome of 42%
• Although scenario planning cannot predict the
definite future, it helps companies to
compensate usual errors in decision-making
(Schoemaker, 1995)
Editor's Notes
Since scenario planning only depict possible futures and not specific strategies to overcome them, thus it is not inappropriate to also invite external alliances and partners like major suppliers, health care providers, regulators and consultants into the process.
Method like the six thinking hats developed by de Bono (1999) that allow parallel thinking and avoid arguments can be used. Here, the white hat which focus on acquiring information and green hat which focus on creative thinking and putting forward possibilities can be engaged.
The pharmaceutical industry generally has high average profitability especially in the 1980s and 1990s
Buyer power was low as patients did not shop based on price, while doctors chose products with little reason to consider price, as most patients are medically insured with insurance companies
Suppliers power is also low because the inputs tend to be available from multiple sources.
Threat of substitutions is low as substitutes of other types of therapies were not proven and usually offered little value compared to the effective pharmaceuticals
Threat of new entries was also blocked by patents and also the complicated regulatory process for new drug approval plus the difficulty of establishing a formidable sales forces and distribution system
However, with Republicans’ previous policies and its influences in the current congress, it will continue to give generics some hard times.
Improve sales, cut cost and increase competiveness
Few key uncertain trends will shape the landscape of pharmaceutical industry as stated below. Although these key uncertainties are less significant compare to the above basic trends, Eli Lilly cannot ignore the possibilities that could turn real trends in over 5-10 year’s horizon
Most of the time drugs and medicines work on the idea of “one size fits all” which are not so effective. Personalized medicine can be tailored to suit personal diagnostic requirement, to prevent certain diseases and to treat illnesses specifically. With rising cost of healthcare, knowing well ahead the conditions and heritage of your body will translate to prevention and lower the healthcare bills ultimately (Mustapha, 2009).
The health information technology includes electronic medical record (EMR), electronic health record (EHR), personal health record (PHR), health information exchange (HIE), payor-based health record (PBHR), and electronic prescribing (e-prescribing)
The two variables are chosen because they are rated as highest on importance rating scale. Besides that both variables turn out to be a perfect combination as they possessed great challenges to Eli Lilly.
Embryonic stem cell treatments would be complemented with innovative pharmaceuticals. Thus, there will be many new breakthroughs in medical treatments for diseases that were previously impossible to cure.
The scenarios are plausible due to the recent change of political power in US. The next political election in five years may bring change to the existing situation. Stem cell research is an emerging industry and the future is highly anticipated.
Therefore the constructed scenarios are greatly plausible
All constructed scenarios possess a great challenge to Eil Lily to survive and sustain its position as the top multinational pharmaceutical firms.
Current US government had given branded drugs at least 12 years of market exclusivity, apart from patent protection lifespan (The Wall Street Journal, 2009). The government also realizes that by cutting down support for branded drugs, it would halt innovation for pharmaceutical firms to research new medicine to the market. Although the government is trying to cut down the price of branded drugs, they will still continue to support branded drugs manufacturers or pharmaceutical firms as branded drugs manufacturers drive innovation but generic drug manufacturers do not
In Jan 2009, U.S. Food and Drug Administration had approved the first clinical trial using embryonic stem cells in humans as medical treatment. Geron Corp., a California-based biotech company had been granted the permission to implant embryonic stem cells in paraplegic patients who can’t walk.
The National Institutes of Health established a site (http://stemcells.nih.gov) for publics to gain more information about stem cell research.
If the government turns their support to generic drug manufacturer, Eli Lily needs to figure out strategies to stay competitive in the pharmaceutical industry, either by acquiring existing generic drugs manufacturers or reduce the drugs’ price
After generating the “first-generation” scenarios by quantifying alternative outcomes of obvious uncertainties, it is determined that the two main forces driving the pharmaceutical businesses are i) Merger and Acquisition (M & A) and ii) Cost Cutting. It appeared that M & A which would also assist in cost cutting are inevitable in the pharmaceutical industry. Thus, Game Theory is used to analyse M & A and to generate decision scenarios.