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ARBOR.COM | 800.ARBOR.10
Small Balance Multifamily
Research on ALEX Chatter
Q3 2017
Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
1ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials 2
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving 6
Vehicle Ownership Higher Among Small Building Renters 9
1
Table of Contents
The Changing Rental Preferences
of Aging Millennials
ALEX Chatter
ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10
Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
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The impact of Millennials (born 1982-1999)
on the rental market is only just beginning
to fully manifest itself, as the youngest of
this cohort enter adult life.
As shown here, according to data from the
American Community Survey (ACS), while
adult Millennials (18 years or older)
comprised a 22% share of the overall
American population of 321 million, they
form a significantly higher share of the
nearly 39 million apartment renters
in 2015.
At the same time, considering price
differences across apartment building
types, Millennials represented a higher
share of small building renter population at
36%. This figure is 5% higher than their
share in the more expensive large
buildings.
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
Millennials as Share of Population Segment
As of 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials
36%
31%
35%
22%
0%
8%
16%
24%
32%
40%
Small Building
Renters
Large Building
Renters
All Apartment
Renters
US Overall
Population
Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
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Going deeper, segmenting the Millennial
market by younger (18-25 years) and older
(26-33 years) renters shows differences in
building preferences, which are likely to
play out fully in the coming years.
As shown here, younger Millennials
comprised 18% of all small building renters,
only 1% lower compared to their older
counterparts.
This difference gets wider in large buildings
with higher rents, where the older
Millennials, further into their careers, come
in 3% higher in the overall renter share.
Young and Older Millennials, as Share of Population Segment
As of 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials (continued)
19%
17%
11%
18%
14%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Small Building
Renters
Large Building
Renters
US Overall
Population
18-25 yrs 26-33 yrs
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
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Adult Millennial renter growth continues to
outpace overall apartment demand, even
as market observers brace for the
impending generational shift toward the
post-Millennials (born after 2000).
As shown here, Millennial apartment
demand is expanding at twice the pace of
the overall renter growth across all
apartment types — at an annual rate of
7.2% in small buildings and at an even
higher rate of 11.5% in large buildings,
fueled by older Millennials.
Small building developers and property
managers will benefit from a more nuanced
understanding of the exceptionally diverse
Millennial demand segment, including age,
as explored here.
Growth of Millennials By Population Segment
Average Annual Growth Rate 2014 to 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials (continued)
7%
12%
7%
4%
5%
1%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Small Building
Renters
Large Building
Renters
US Overall
Population
Millennials All Age Groups
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in
Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving
ALEX Chatter
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In recent years, cities have witnessed the
rapid adoption of new technologies such as
ride-sharing and on-demand taxi services.
Such changes — in combination with a
renewed focus on transit expansion — have
the potential to transform the residential
location options for workers.
However, as shown here, an overwhelming
77% share of all workers living in small
apartment buildings in 2015 drove to work.
In large buildings — which tend to be more
centrally located — this figure was 62%.
On the flip side, around 21% of large
building residents took public
transportation to work, double the share of
workers living in small buildings. In large
buildings, another 9% walked to work,
compared to only 6% in small buildings.
Commute Choice of Renters Living in Apartments
As of 2015; Share of Workers within Asset Class by Mode
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving
77%
12%
5%
1%
5%
62%
21%
9%
1%
6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Car Public Transport Walked Biked All Other
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
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Driving is the predominant mode of
commute overall. Yet when examining just
car-owners, the data indicates a faster shift
to other commute modes among small
building residents.
As shown here, the share of car-owners
driving to work grew at an annual rate of
3.6% in small buildings, compared to 4.2%
among large building residents.
Public transportation use grew at 4.8%
among small building car-owners, which
was faster compared to large building
residents.
Although starting at a very small share,
biking grew at an even faster pace among
small building car-owners at 5.5%,
Growth in Commute Choice of Workers Owning a Car, Living in Apartments
As of 2015; Share of Workers within Asset Class by Mode
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving (continued)
3.6%
4.8%
3.4%
5.5%
7.2%
4.2% 4.1%
7.5%
6.7%
9.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Car Public Transport Walked Biked All Other
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
Vehicle Ownership Higher Among
Small Building Renters
ALEX Chatter
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Larger shares of car ownership among small
building renters should come as little
surprise given the more dispersed location
of small properties across both urban and
suburban locations — especially compared
to the predominantly downtown oriented
large buildings.
Only 22% of small apartment building
households did not own a vehicle. In larger
buildings, this figure rose to nearly 40%.
Nationally, this share stood at only 9%,
which makes sense given that
approximately 63% of householders own
rather than rent.
Among small building households, 53%
owned just one car, while another 25%
owned two or more cars.
Car Ownership by Building Size
As of 2015; Households Living in Apartment Buildings
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving
22%
53%
25%
39%
45%
16%
9%
33%
58%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
No Car One Car Two Cars or More
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings US Overall
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
11ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
In a reversal of the long-term decline trend,
households without vehicles registered a
small increase across both small and large
apartment buildings. Some observers
attribute this slow growth to the rejection
of the car culture by Millennials — though
that is a trend that’s up for debate.
Technological disruptions in the auto-
industry, such as the introduction of self-
driving cars and car shares, could further
dampen ownership rates. For property
managers, this technology could lead to a
shift to electric and hybrid vehicles, which
could require new vehicle amenities in
apartment complexes such as
charging stations.
Growth in Car Ownership by Building Size
2010 to 2015; Households Living in Apartment Buildings
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving (continued)
1.0%
1.6%
3.6%
1.3%
2.6%
4.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
0.0%
1.2%
2.4%
3.6%
4.8%
6.0%
No Car One Car Two Cars or More
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings United States
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
ARBOR.COM | 800.ARBOR.10
About Us
For over 20 years, Uniondale, NY-based Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ABR) has been helping multifamily and commercial
real estate clients achieve their financial goals by focusing on growing long-term relationships and conducting business as
not simply another real estate lender, but a partner. We value our clients to such an extent that we are more
comfortable calling them partners, and their relationships with Arbor are the foundation of our business.
Founded by Chairman and CEO Ivan Kaufman, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust and direct lender
specializing in loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial
real estate assets. Arbor is a Top 10 Fannie Mae DUS® Multifamily Lender by volume and a Top Fannie Mae Small Loan
lender, a Freddie Mac Multifamily Seller/Servicer and the Top Freddie Mac Small Balance Loan Lender, a Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac Seniors Housing Lender, an FHA Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP)/LEAN Lender, a HUD-approved
LIHTC Lender as well as a CMBS, Bridge, Mezzanine and Preferred Equity lender, consistently building on its reputation
for service, quality and flexibility. With a current servicing portfolio of more than $15 billion, Arbor is a primary
commercial loan servicer and special servicer rated by Standard & Poor’s with an Above Average rating. Arbor is also on
the Standard & Poor’s Select Servicer List and is a primary commercial loan servicer and loan level special servicer rated
by Fitch Ratings.
The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news,
research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice;
all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not
warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or
damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past
performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Small Balance Multifamily Research on Alex Chatter 2017 Q3

  • 1. ARBOR.COM | 800.ARBOR.10 Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter Q3 2017
  • 2. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 1ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials 2 Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving 6 Vehicle Ownership Higher Among Small Building Renters 9 1 Table of Contents
  • 3. The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials ALEX Chatter ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10
  • 4. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 3ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 The impact of Millennials (born 1982-1999) on the rental market is only just beginning to fully manifest itself, as the youngest of this cohort enter adult life. As shown here, according to data from the American Community Survey (ACS), while adult Millennials (18 years or older) comprised a 22% share of the overall American population of 321 million, they form a significantly higher share of the nearly 39 million apartment renters in 2015. At the same time, considering price differences across apartment building types, Millennials represented a higher share of small building renter population at 36%. This figure is 5% higher than their share in the more expensive large buildings. Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey Millennials as Share of Population Segment As of 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982 The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials 36% 31% 35% 22% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% Small Building Renters Large Building Renters All Apartment Renters US Overall Population
  • 5. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 4ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 Going deeper, segmenting the Millennial market by younger (18-25 years) and older (26-33 years) renters shows differences in building preferences, which are likely to play out fully in the coming years. As shown here, younger Millennials comprised 18% of all small building renters, only 1% lower compared to their older counterparts. This difference gets wider in large buildings with higher rents, where the older Millennials, further into their careers, come in 3% higher in the overall renter share. Young and Older Millennials, as Share of Population Segment As of 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982 The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials (continued) 19% 17% 11% 18% 14% 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Small Building Renters Large Building Renters US Overall Population 18-25 yrs 26-33 yrs Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
  • 6. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 5ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 Adult Millennial renter growth continues to outpace overall apartment demand, even as market observers brace for the impending generational shift toward the post-Millennials (born after 2000). As shown here, Millennial apartment demand is expanding at twice the pace of the overall renter growth across all apartment types — at an annual rate of 7.2% in small buildings and at an even higher rate of 11.5% in large buildings, fueled by older Millennials. Small building developers and property managers will benefit from a more nuanced understanding of the exceptionally diverse Millennial demand segment, including age, as explored here. Growth of Millennials By Population Segment Average Annual Growth Rate 2014 to 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982 The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials (continued) 7% 12% 7% 4% 5% 1% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Small Building Renters Large Building Renters US Overall Population Millennials All Age Groups Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
  • 7. Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving ALEX Chatter ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10
  • 8. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 7ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 In recent years, cities have witnessed the rapid adoption of new technologies such as ride-sharing and on-demand taxi services. Such changes — in combination with a renewed focus on transit expansion — have the potential to transform the residential location options for workers. However, as shown here, an overwhelming 77% share of all workers living in small apartment buildings in 2015 drove to work. In large buildings — which tend to be more centrally located — this figure was 62%. On the flip side, around 21% of large building residents took public transportation to work, double the share of workers living in small buildings. In large buildings, another 9% walked to work, compared to only 6% in small buildings. Commute Choice of Renters Living in Apartments As of 2015; Share of Workers within Asset Class by Mode Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving 77% 12% 5% 1% 5% 62% 21% 9% 1% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Car Public Transport Walked Biked All Other Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
  • 9. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 8ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 Driving is the predominant mode of commute overall. Yet when examining just car-owners, the data indicates a faster shift to other commute modes among small building residents. As shown here, the share of car-owners driving to work grew at an annual rate of 3.6% in small buildings, compared to 4.2% among large building residents. Public transportation use grew at 4.8% among small building car-owners, which was faster compared to large building residents. Although starting at a very small share, biking grew at an even faster pace among small building car-owners at 5.5%, Growth in Commute Choice of Workers Owning a Car, Living in Apartments As of 2015; Share of Workers within Asset Class by Mode Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving (continued) 3.6% 4.8% 3.4% 5.5% 7.2% 4.2% 4.1% 7.5% 6.7% 9.2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Car Public Transport Walked Biked All Other Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
  • 10. Vehicle Ownership Higher Among Small Building Renters ALEX Chatter ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10
  • 11. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 10ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 Larger shares of car ownership among small building renters should come as little surprise given the more dispersed location of small properties across both urban and suburban locations — especially compared to the predominantly downtown oriented large buildings. Only 22% of small apartment building households did not own a vehicle. In larger buildings, this figure rose to nearly 40%. Nationally, this share stood at only 9%, which makes sense given that approximately 63% of householders own rather than rent. Among small building households, 53% owned just one car, while another 25% owned two or more cars. Car Ownership by Building Size As of 2015; Households Living in Apartment Buildings Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving 22% 53% 25% 39% 45% 16% 9% 33% 58% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% No Car One Car Two Cars or More Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings US Overall Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
  • 12. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter 11ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10 In a reversal of the long-term decline trend, households without vehicles registered a small increase across both small and large apartment buildings. Some observers attribute this slow growth to the rejection of the car culture by Millennials — though that is a trend that’s up for debate. Technological disruptions in the auto- industry, such as the introduction of self- driving cars and car shares, could further dampen ownership rates. For property managers, this technology could lead to a shift to electric and hybrid vehicles, which could require new vehicle amenities in apartment complexes such as charging stations. Growth in Car Ownership by Building Size 2010 to 2015; Households Living in Apartment Buildings Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving (continued) 1.0% 1.6% 3.6% 1.3% 2.6% 4.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 1.2% 2.4% 3.6% 4.8% 6.0% No Car One Car Two Cars or More Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings United States Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
  • 13. ARBOR.COM | 800.ARBOR.10 About Us For over 20 years, Uniondale, NY-based Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ABR) has been helping multifamily and commercial real estate clients achieve their financial goals by focusing on growing long-term relationships and conducting business as not simply another real estate lender, but a partner. We value our clients to such an extent that we are more comfortable calling them partners, and their relationships with Arbor are the foundation of our business. Founded by Chairman and CEO Ivan Kaufman, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust and direct lender specializing in loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial real estate assets. Arbor is a Top 10 Fannie Mae DUS® Multifamily Lender by volume and a Top Fannie Mae Small Loan lender, a Freddie Mac Multifamily Seller/Servicer and the Top Freddie Mac Small Balance Loan Lender, a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Seniors Housing Lender, an FHA Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP)/LEAN Lender, a HUD-approved LIHTC Lender as well as a CMBS, Bridge, Mezzanine and Preferred Equity lender, consistently building on its reputation for service, quality and flexibility. With a current servicing portfolio of more than $15 billion, Arbor is a primary commercial loan servicer and special servicer rated by Standard & Poor’s with an Above Average rating. Arbor is also on the Standard & Poor’s Select Servicer List and is a primary commercial loan servicer and loan level special servicer rated by Fitch Ratings. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice; all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.