This presentation discusses; the changing rental preferences of aging millennials, renter commute trends, and vehicle ownership rates in the multifamily market.
Pathfinding a Soft Landing to Energy DescentBrad Attig
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Laird Schaub (2013). Pathfinding a Soft Landing to Energy Descent. Grassroots Economic Organizing (GEO) Newsletter, Volume 2, Issue 16.
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019Ivan Kaufman
Small multifamily represents a third of the rental market. The nation’s rental market had a total of 41.9 million renter-occupied housing units, as of 2018. Small multifamily, which includes apartment properties of 5 to 49 units, represented 33% (13.7 million) of the total rental market.
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Pathfinding a Soft Landing to Energy DescentBrad Attig
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Laird Schaub (2013). Pathfinding a Soft Landing to Energy Descent. Grassroots Economic Organizing (GEO) Newsletter, Volume 2, Issue 16.
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019Ivan Kaufman
Small multifamily represents a third of the rental market. The nation’s rental market had a total of 41.9 million renter-occupied housing units, as of 2018. Small multifamily, which includes apartment properties of 5 to 49 units, represented 33% (13.7 million) of the total rental market.
The purpose of this video is to provide an overview of the recent events and trends that have transpired in the residential housing environment, and to provide an overview of the home-price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index. This analysis is for the second quarter of 2015.
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Chandan Economics Research on Arbor Chatter 2018 q2Ivan Kaufman
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Even if enough time has passed since a foreclosure, many lenders are loath to make loans to borrowers with any blemish on their credit history. The average credit score on purchase mortgage loans sold to Fannie Mae last year was close to 745. In a more typical housing market, like that prior to the housing bubble, the average score was closer to 715. This 30-point difference represents several
million potential homebuyers.
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Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 is the unavoidable and overarching theme across all areas of commercial real estate - the singe family rental (SFR) sector is no exception.
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The market for single-family rentals (SFRs) in 2019 has continued to take significant steps forward. Build-to-rent strategies have emerged as the sector’s solution to match supply levels with growing demand. Cap rates held steady through the summer months and remained near their lowest levels as part of Chandan Economics’ post-crisis tracking.
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Please also find attached our Real Estate Supplement. In it you will read about how issuance of bonds backed by commercial properties is on track to beat last year's supply and yield premiums for bonds backed by commercial property loans have narrowed. Also, Jefferies CMBS veteran Lisa Pendergast says she expects CMBS spreads to narrow by year end, while Fannie Mae economists Douglas Duncan and Patrick Simmons argue that a slowdown in the growth of the labor force suggests more modest prospects for the demand for new housing and construction. Emile J. Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, probes how state regulations will affect the pace of foreclosures and delinquencies. Nicolas Retsinas of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing has some advice for lawmakers on GSE reform and Donald Trump offers a characteristically confident view that the recovery in real estate. If you have any comments or feedback for future real estate issues please contact arozens@bloomberg.net.
Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...Ivan Kaufman
Small apartment buildings comprise the largest share of workforce housing demand within the top 20 metros, while single-family rentals dominate the next 30.
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In Arbor Chatter's latest Multifamily Research, the Arbor team presents research on various multifamily market trends and news. The research covers everything from how apartment community size affects unity and neighborhood ratings to the role of public transportation in suburban apartment areas. In researching small apartment buildings, research found that near 65% of occupants rated their units more favorably than those occupants of large buildings. Occupants in smaller buildings rated the schools in their area more favorably than those in larger buildings but rated their public transportation options as lower than those inhabiting large buildings.
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2. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
1ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials 2
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving 6
Vehicle Ownership Higher Among Small Building Renters 9
1
Table of Contents
3. The Changing Rental Preferences
of Aging Millennials
ALEX Chatter
ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10
4. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
3ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
The impact of Millennials (born 1982-1999)
on the rental market is only just beginning
to fully manifest itself, as the youngest of
this cohort enter adult life.
As shown here, according to data from the
American Community Survey (ACS), while
adult Millennials (18 years or older)
comprised a 22% share of the overall
American population of 321 million, they
form a significantly higher share of the
nearly 39 million apartment renters
in 2015.
At the same time, considering price
differences across apartment building
types, Millennials represented a higher
share of small building renter population at
36%. This figure is 5% higher than their
share in the more expensive large
buildings.
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
Millennials as Share of Population Segment
As of 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials
36%
31%
35%
22%
0%
8%
16%
24%
32%
40%
Small Building
Renters
Large Building
Renters
All Apartment
Renters
US Overall
Population
5. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
4ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
Going deeper, segmenting the Millennial
market by younger (18-25 years) and older
(26-33 years) renters shows differences in
building preferences, which are likely to
play out fully in the coming years.
As shown here, younger Millennials
comprised 18% of all small building renters,
only 1% lower compared to their older
counterparts.
This difference gets wider in large buildings
with higher rents, where the older
Millennials, further into their careers, come
in 3% higher in the overall renter share.
Young and Older Millennials, as Share of Population Segment
As of 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials (continued)
19%
17%
11%
18%
14%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Small Building
Renters
Large Building
Renters
US Overall
Population
18-25 yrs 26-33 yrs
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
6. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
5ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
Adult Millennial renter growth continues to
outpace overall apartment demand, even
as market observers brace for the
impending generational shift toward the
post-Millennials (born after 2000).
As shown here, Millennial apartment
demand is expanding at twice the pace of
the overall renter growth across all
apartment types — at an annual rate of
7.2% in small buildings and at an even
higher rate of 11.5% in large buildings,
fueled by older Millennials.
Small building developers and property
managers will benefit from a more nuanced
understanding of the exceptionally diverse
Millennial demand segment, including age,
as explored here.
Growth of Millennials By Population Segment
Average Annual Growth Rate 2014 to 2015; Adult Millennials Born After 1982
The Changing Rental Preferences of Aging Millennials (continued)
7%
12%
7%
4%
5%
1%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Small Building
Renters
Large Building
Renters
US Overall
Population
Millennials All Age Groups
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
7. Renter Commute Trends: Growth in
Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving
ALEX Chatter
ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10
8. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
7ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
In recent years, cities have witnessed the
rapid adoption of new technologies such as
ride-sharing and on-demand taxi services.
Such changes — in combination with a
renewed focus on transit expansion — have
the potential to transform the residential
location options for workers.
However, as shown here, an overwhelming
77% share of all workers living in small
apartment buildings in 2015 drove to work.
In large buildings — which tend to be more
centrally located — this figure was 62%.
On the flip side, around 21% of large
building residents took public
transportation to work, double the share of
workers living in small buildings. In large
buildings, another 9% walked to work,
compared to only 6% in small buildings.
Commute Choice of Renters Living in Apartments
As of 2015; Share of Workers within Asset Class by Mode
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving
77%
12%
5%
1%
5%
62%
21%
9%
1%
6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Car Public Transport Walked Biked All Other
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
9. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
8ARBOR.COM • 800.ARBOR.10
Driving is the predominant mode of
commute overall. Yet when examining just
car-owners, the data indicates a faster shift
to other commute modes among small
building residents.
As shown here, the share of car-owners
driving to work grew at an annual rate of
3.6% in small buildings, compared to 4.2%
among large building residents.
Public transportation use grew at 4.8%
among small building car-owners, which
was faster compared to large building
residents.
Although starting at a very small share,
biking grew at an even faster pace among
small building car-owners at 5.5%,
Growth in Commute Choice of Workers Owning a Car, Living in Apartments
As of 2015; Share of Workers within Asset Class by Mode
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving (continued)
3.6%
4.8%
3.4%
5.5%
7.2%
4.2% 4.1%
7.5%
6.7%
9.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Car Public Transport Walked Biked All Other
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
11. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
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Larger shares of car ownership among small
building renters should come as little
surprise given the more dispersed location
of small properties across both urban and
suburban locations — especially compared
to the predominantly downtown oriented
large buildings.
Only 22% of small apartment building
households did not own a vehicle. In larger
buildings, this figure rose to nearly 40%.
Nationally, this share stood at only 9%,
which makes sense given that
approximately 63% of householders own
rather than rent.
Among small building households, 53%
owned just one car, while another 25%
owned two or more cars.
Car Ownership by Building Size
As of 2015; Households Living in Apartment Buildings
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving
22%
53%
25%
39%
45%
16%
9%
33%
58%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
No Car One Car Two Cars or More
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings US Overall
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
12. Small Balance Multifamily Research on ALEX Chatter
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In a reversal of the long-term decline trend,
households without vehicles registered a
small increase across both small and large
apartment buildings. Some observers
attribute this slow growth to the rejection
of the car culture by Millennials — though
that is a trend that’s up for debate.
Technological disruptions in the auto-
industry, such as the introduction of self-
driving cars and car shares, could further
dampen ownership rates. For property
managers, this technology could lead to a
shift to electric and hybrid vehicles, which
could require new vehicle amenities in
apartment complexes such as
charging stations.
Growth in Car Ownership by Building Size
2010 to 2015; Households Living in Apartment Buildings
Renter Commute Trends: Growth in Walking, Cycling Outpace Driving (continued)
1.0%
1.6%
3.6%
1.3%
2.6%
4.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
0.0%
1.2%
2.4%
3.6%
4.8%
6.0%
No Car One Car Two Cars or More
Small Asset Buildings Large Asset Buildings United States
Source: ALEX Chatter, Chandan Economics, U.S. Census American Community Survey
13. ARBOR.COM | 800.ARBOR.10
About Us
For over 20 years, Uniondale, NY-based Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ABR) has been helping multifamily and commercial
real estate clients achieve their financial goals by focusing on growing long-term relationships and conducting business as
not simply another real estate lender, but a partner. We value our clients to such an extent that we are more
comfortable calling them partners, and their relationships with Arbor are the foundation of our business.
Founded by Chairman and CEO Ivan Kaufman, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust and direct lender
specializing in loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial
real estate assets. Arbor is a Top 10 Fannie Mae DUS® Multifamily Lender by volume and a Top Fannie Mae Small Loan
lender, a Freddie Mac Multifamily Seller/Servicer and the Top Freddie Mac Small Balance Loan Lender, a Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac Seniors Housing Lender, an FHA Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP)/LEAN Lender, a HUD-approved
LIHTC Lender as well as a CMBS, Bridge, Mezzanine and Preferred Equity lender, consistently building on its reputation
for service, quality and flexibility. With a current servicing portfolio of more than $15 billion, Arbor is a primary
commercial loan servicer and special servicer rated by Standard & Poor’s with an Above Average rating. Arbor is also on
the Standard & Poor’s Select Servicer List and is a primary commercial loan servicer and loan level special servicer rated
by Fitch Ratings.
The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news,
research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice;
all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not
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