In my capacity as Visiting Professor, I delivered a keynote lecture on 'Shifts in Global Power Relations and Implications for Africa,' organised by the African Leadership Centre in the School of Global Affairs at King’s College London. In my lecture, I discussed three interconnected arguments concerning shifts in global power relations and their implications for Africa. First, I emphasised the role of history in shaping these dynamics. Second, I talked about the pace, process, context, and implications of global power shifts. Finally, I highlighted Africa's centrality in reshaping the world and stressed the importance of it becoming a co-rule maker in the emerging new world order. The world, including Africa, faces numerous conflicts and challenges, from tensions between Russia and Ukraine to crises in the Middle East and various conflicts within Africa. These issues underscore the necessity to reassess traditional assumptions in international governance. Climate change, pandemics, inequality, demographic shifts, and declining trust in governments further complicate the global landscape. Scholars discuss the emergence of a multipolar global order which indicates a transition filled with doubts and fears. The need for enlightened leadership is important, but the current political space is dominated by narrow nationalism, xenophobia, and militarism. Some even suggest the world might be on the brink of a third world war. Amidst this, existential threats extend beyond military conflicts to climate change, triggering fires, floods, hurricanes, and migrations. Africa, too, faces security challenges influenced by global dynamics. The continent experiences turbulence from external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic crises, and climate change. Despite historical successes in collective responses to challenges, regional peace initiatives appear to be losing momentum. Visionary leadership is essential for Africa to navigate the evolving global order. The continent's demographic advantage could be leveraged to collectively influence the new world order. The current geopolitical landscape, evident in voting patterns and attendance at international summits, indicates Africa's potential to play a key role. However, the continent needs to move beyond donor-recipient dynamics in engagements with other nations and establish a clear, shared agenda. To address weaknesses in engaging with the changing world order, Africa must fill gaps in policy and leadership. Tackling structural drivers of conflict, particularly poverty and inequality, is necessary for sustainable peace. Investment in developing leadership capacities is essential for navigating this rapidly changing world.

1. @kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
Dr Kayode Fayemi
Visiting Professor, African Leadership Centre,
King’s College London
Pioneer President, Forum of Règions of Africa
(FORAF)
Former Governor of Ekiti State
Former Chairman, Nigeria Governors’ Forum
A KEYNOTE LECTURE BY:
LONDON || NOVEMBER 9, 2023.

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
Allow me to start by thanking the Director, Dr Eka Ikpe, Faculty and members of the Africa Leadership
CentreintheSchoolofGlobalAffairshereatKing'sCollegeforthisopportunitytospeakandshareideas
withinthehallowedprecinctofthisgreatcitadeloflearning.
Ifelt adeepsenseofnostalgiawhenIarrivedheresixmonthsagoasavisitingscholar,thirtyyearsafterIleft
asastudent.Duringmytimehere,Ihavehadtheopportunitytoactivelyengagewithstudentsandfaculty
onawiderangeofsubjects,whilereflectingonmyexperienceinthecivilsocietyandingovernment.Ihave
spokenon"GovernanceattheSub-nationalLevel-TheEkitiexperience",sharingthoughtsonmytimeas
an elected Governor. I have delivered a lecture on "The Challenge of Democratic Leadership: Continuity
and Change in Nigeria", reviewing two decades of democratisation in Nigeria. I have also led a
Post-Graduateworkshopon"TheLeadership-PeaceNexusinAfrica",sharingtheexperienceofaScholar
-Politician." Alloftheseengagementsformastandardpartofmyactivityasavisitingfacultyinadditionto
my commitment to write a book. This Keynote Lecture is however my first engagement with a wider
public and on a subject matter of great interest to many. I want to particularly thank Professors Funmi
Olonisakin, Abiodun Alao and Dr Adeoti Dipeolu for all the arrangements. In speaking of the Shifts in
Global Power Relations and its implications for Africa, I intend to make three distinct yet interconnected
arguments in this lecture. The first is to underscore the importance of history in shaping our
understandingoftheshiftingglobaldynamicsthatwearewitnessing.Thesecondseekstointerrogatethe
pace,process,trajectory,contextandimplicationsofthechangesintheglobalpowerrelationsandthethird
explores the centrality of Africa in the re-shaping of the world and the criticality of Africa becoming a
co-rulemakerintheemergingnewworldorder.
Our world is today dotted by many theatres of war and conflicts. Two of such conflicts readily come to
mind: Russia and Ukraine which has bern on for the past one year; and lately, the human catastrophe
currently playing out in the Middle East, and arguably the bloodiest, in the seeming intractable conflict
between Israel and Palestine. Closer home in Africa, we have the multi-faceted conflicts in the Sahel, the
Sudan,Ethiopia,Somalia,Congoandafewotherplaces. Onemajorimperativeofalltheseconflictsisthe
needtopaycloserattentiontosomeofthetraditionalassumptionsthatunderpinourinternationalsystem
andtheglobalorderasweknowit.Beyondtheinternecineconflictsarealsotheothercommonchallenges
thatconfrontusallsuchasthecrisisofclimatechangeandthescourgeofpandemicswhichhavesignificantly

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
impacted our world in the past few years and presented new issues for global governance systems both as
causes and consequences of new and existential problems. Growing inequality, not only along the north
andsouthaxisoftheglobe,butwithinregionsandnations;majordemographicshifts,theinterconnected
problem of irregular migration and refugees across international borders, as well as declining trust in
governmentsandinter-governmentalinstitutions. Whilenoneoftheseproblemsistotallynew,thesheer
scale, and the complexities are not what we are familiar with, and this is why our established global
governancesystemsthathavefunctionedrelativelywellinthepast,nowappearineffectiveandinadequate.
The World In Transition
Today, we are living witnesses to changes in global order, including a radical redistribution of economic
power,thatpresagestheendofthepost-1945multilateralsystemanditsreplacementbyanewworldorder
characterised by competing centres of power and influence. Indeed, it is the process of the gradual
decompositionofthepost-1945multilateralsystemandthePaxAmericanathatunderpinneditthatisat
theheartoftheturbulencethatwenowwitness.Thismomentinworldhistoryisprobablybestcaptured
bythe1930statementbythefamousItalianpoliticalphilosopher,AntonioGramsci,aboutadifferentera
thatwassimilarlycharacterisedbymultipleproblemsthatwereplayingoutinandaroundhisnativeItaly.
Hesaid:“Thecrisisconsistspreciselyinthefactthatoldisdyingandthenewcannot(asyet)beborn;inthis
interregnumagreatdealofmorbidsymptomsappear.” Itisastatementthatwassubsequentlypopularised
astoassumethestatusofaglobalcliche.
Periods of transition from one global order to another tend to occur gradually, sometimes even
imperceptiblyforaperiod.However,theforcesofchangethatundergirdthetransitionprogressinexorably
until the shift that they bring about bursts into the open. The transitional periods, characterised by the
triple dynamics of decomposition, recomposition, and redistribution of power, tend to be marked by
turbulence,instability,andevenviolence.
AttheheightoftheglobalhegemonyofGreatBritainanditsenforcedPaxBritannica,thecapacityofthe
statetorulethewavesonaccount,interalia, ofitsindustrialprowessandsuperiornavalpower,placeditin
a position to enforce its will and demand compliance. However, even Pax Britannica did not go
unchallenged by the European rivals such as France and later Germany, but also from emerging new
centresofpowersuchastheUnitedStateswhich,thoughpreviouslyacolonyoftheUnitedKingdom,

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
was rapidly coming to its own and assuming an important role as a pole of global economic growth and
political influence. Although the decline of Pax Britannica began long before the onset of the First World
War, that war, as well as the Second World War that inevitably followed it, marked its symbolic and
substantive end. And it was a violent end that claimed millions of lives. In the inter-war years, the world
experienced massive convulsions that included the Great Depression and the economic and social
dislocationsthatcamewithit.TheairinEuropewasfilledwithrevolutionaryfervourevenasanti-colonial/
national liberation movements in Africa, Asia, and Latin America gathered momentum. The ill-fated
LeagueofNations,anintergovernmentalchildofextremelydifficultcircumstancesthatwasoverwhelmed
frombirthbythemanycrisesthatwereplayingout,andwhichwasfurtherincapacitatedbythe risingtide
offascisminEurope,alsofinallycollapsed.
Pax Britannica was replaced by Pax Americana, with the United States emerging formally as the single
most powerful economic and political force in the world. The global economic dominance of the United
States was largely projected by its transnational corporations and the pre-eminent position that the U.S.
dollar came to assume in international finance, commerce, and investment. Combined with the massive
military capability that it had built up, and its ability to deploy power on a global scale, it is not surprising
thattheUnitedStatestookaleadroleinthemakingofthenewglobalmultilateralsystemthatwasbuiltat
theendoftheSecondWorldWar,andattheheartofwhichliestheUnitedNationsfamilyoforganisations,
includingtheBrettonWoodstwins,theWorldBankandtheIMF.
Indeed, Pax Americana as a concept and practice may have embodied the pre-eminent position of the
UnitedStatesinglobalaffairsaftertheSecondWorldWar.However,itwassubjecttocontestationfromthe
outset by Russia, which stood opposite the United States and its allies in the West, in terms of political
ideologyandstrategicinterests.Russia,havingpaidaheavypriceinliveslostduringtheSecondWorldWar,
was determined to consolidate its Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) under a revolutionary
socialistbanner.IntheColdWarthatensuedandwhicheventuallycametoframeglobalpoliticsuntilthe
1990s, Russia bolstered its military arsenal to become a credible rival and competitor to the United States
in the deployment of massively destructive military capability. The politics of deterrence such as it played
outeffectivelymeantthatnooverteffortwasmadebyeitherofthetwo biggestnuclearpowerstointerfere
inthespheresofinfluencethattheyhadcarvedoutforthemselvesandsoughttocontrol.

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
Not Really the End of History
The USSR, with Russia at its core, may have successfully matched the United States in the
military-political-ideological fields. However, it struggled economically, and in the face of serious internal
pressure and contradictory ambitions of its members, the union had to succumb to an eventual collapse.
Not a few commentators, including, for a time at least, the well-known Francis Fukuyama, were quick to
adoptatriumphalist‘end-of-history’narrative,whichprojectedtheUnitedStates,eitheronitsownorwith
itsWesternallies,asthelast"man"standinginan ideologicalbattlethathadlastedforabouthalfacentury.
Capitalism,theysaid,hadtriumphedoversocialism/marxism/communism,andliberaldemocracyhadwonover
the “authoritarian” system of democratic centralism that the Soviets had practised. It was such a terminal
moment in history, after which there would be no further challenge to capitalism and liberal democracy as
economicandpoliticalideologies.InthewordsofFukuyama,itwastheendofhistory.Butwasit?
Fukuyamahimselfwastolateradmitthathisproclamationoftheendofhistoryintheimmediateaftermathof
thedissolutionoftheUSSRanditsWarsawPactandCOMECONwas,tostateitpolitely,alittlepremature.For
outoftherubbleoftheoldUSSR,theRussianFederationreconstituteditselfasanindependentpowerwhich
also claimed and retained the massive nuclear arsenal of the old Soviet Union. It may have been somewhat
weakenedbythecollapseoftheUnion, butitwasnotentirelyout.Anditwasonlyamatteroftime,andthe
accessionofVladimirPutintopower,foraresurgentRussiatorepositionitselfasamajorforceandpowerbroker
in its own right, complete with an upgraded arsenal of conventional and non-conventional forces. The
conventionalcomponentsofthatarsenalarepresentlybeingputtotestbytheUS-ledNATOinthewarthatis
ongoinginUkraine.
TheunipolarmomentwhichtheUnitedStatesmayhaveenjoyedasthesoleremainingsuperpowerstillstanding
nowseemdestinedtobeshortlived.Indeed,anyconceptionofaunipolarworldorderundertheuntrammeled
hegemony of America, which looked so inevitable at the turn of the millennium, now appears improbable.
Even as Russia embarked on a path of rapid military-political resurgence, China has ledapackofcountries
such as India, Turkey, Brazil, and a host of other middle powers to challenge the economic dominance of the
UnitedStates.TheresurgenceofChinaasaneconomic,ifnotapoliticalpowerbloc,hasbeenespeciallyrapidand
comprehensivethattherelegationoftheUnitedStateseconomytoasecondplace,appearedtohavehappened
withoutanymajorresistance.

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
Beyond being the factory of the world, China today holds the biggest foreign exchange reserves. Ihas
expanded its international trade, investment, and foreign aid profiles. It has also enhanced its
competitivenessinscience,technology,andinnovation,whilegrowingitssoftpower-particularlythrough
theBeltandRoadInitiative.Perhaps,mostsignificantlyChinahasalsobeencarryingoutasingle-minded
modernisation and expansion of its military capability. The massive financial resources at its disposal has
enabledittoinvestinreinforcingitsdefensiveandoffensivecapabilitiesonascalewhichhasalreadyplaced
it among the topmost military powers in the world. Many Western analysts now think that it is only a
matter of time before China becomes a Blue-Water naval power. Yet, coming closely behind are other
actors,mostlyMiddlePowers,whoarealsoassertingtheirglobalgeopoliticalinterestsmoreautonomously
and aggressively, thereby contributing to the much more diffuse nature of power and influence in the
presentsituation.AgoodexampleiswhatwearewitnessingwithBRICSnations.
Towards a Multi-polar world
Scholars seeking to characterise the current international balance of power among nations talk about the
emergence of a multipolar global order with multiple competing centres co-existing, albeit uneasily. I
suggestthatmultipolarityitselfspeakstoaglobalreorderinginwhichtheoldisdyingsimultaneouslyasthe
newisstrugglingtobeborn.Itisatenseanddelicatetransitionalmomentinhumanhistorythatispacked
with doubts and fears. As old certitudes are dissolved, and new pecking orders emerge, existing global
governance institutions find themselves struggling to cope with a nascent new order in a state of flux. As
the UN Secretary-General, Antonio. Gutteres aptly puts it, "we are now at an inflection point… power
dynamics have become increasingly fragmented as new poles of influence emerge, new economic blocs
formandaxesofcontestationareredefined."(UnitedNations,ANewAgendaforPeace,2023).
Although not surprisingly, it is important to note that the emerging multi-polarity is also happening
alongsideanewarmsrace,whichhasseenanunprecedentedexpansionofmilitaryspendinginrecentyears,
especiallybytheoldpowers(withmilitaryexpendituresgloballyreachinganewrecordof$2.24trillionin
2022, according to SIPRI and IISS), committed to boosting their defence (or offensive) arsenals, and
proliferating military bases around the world. And as more countries acquire nuclear capabilities, the old
fear of a mutually assured destruction is no longer about East and West; new axis of nuclear triggers now
existsandthefearofanuclearconflicthasonceagainbecomeanactivepartofpublicdiscourse.

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
The precarious balance underpinning the evolving multipolar system requires enlightened leadership on
all sides. Yet, it is precisely this kind of leadership that has increasingly been in short supply around the
world in recent years. Narrow nationalism, raw xenophobia, blatant fear-mongering, and belligerent
militarism now overwhelm the political space and constrict avenues for constructive dialogue that is so
necessary in navigating a world faced with unprecedented disequilibrium. We have seen it in Ukraine and
we currently witnessing it in Palestine. As the drums of war are beaten, and events are increasingly being
tendentiously interpreted through what looks like a new Cold War prism, it would appear, like many
observers have noted, that we have never edged nearer to a third world war than now. Some have even
suggestedthatwhatwearewitnessinginUkraineandPalestineareindeedaprelude,ifnotthefirstActsof
anewWorldWar.
Even as precarious as this situation is, there is yet another dimension to it. When one looks at the various
conflictsragingaroundtheworld,thetemptationtodefinethecrisisthatwefaceinmilitarytermsaloneis
quite high. However, the existential threats that we face have greater ramifications than military conflicts,
and requires even a higher level of leadership and global cooperation. Through ever more frequent and
frightening forest fires, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes; rising temperatures, irregularities in weather
patterns,andtheattendantdroughtsandfamine,climatechangeistakingitstollonpeopleandeconomies
everywhere.Internalandcross-bordermigrationstriggeredoracceleratedbyclimatechangehave,inturn,
revived ethno-regional consciousness and produced serious inter-communal clashes over water resources,
land, and pasture among farmers and pastoralists. International migration, undertaken through the most
hazardous routes, have met with a rising tide of racist populism and extreme right nationalism that is
changingthefaceofpoliticsintheworld,particularlyinEuropeandNorthAmerica.Ourworldiscaught
today in a vortex of multi-dimensional and mutually reinforcing crises that can only be solved by a more
unitedworld.
Implications for Africa
What then are the implications of these imminent changes for Africa? It is evident that the crises and
instabilitythatarewrackingtheinternationalsysteminthisperiodoftransitionhasnotsparedtheAfrican
continent. This has manifested largely through the spate of security challenges arising from radical
extremistclaims,mostlytingedwithquestionablereligiousandethnic motivesthathavecalledthesecular

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
state into question and challenged its constitutional foundations. Although not limited to Africa - the
continenthasbornesomeoftheharshestandmostprolongedbruntofviolenceandinsecurityperpetrated
by local and ambulant franchisees of Al-Qaeda, Islamic State, Ansaru, and other global networks of
militantscommittedtotheviolentpursuitofanalternativevisionofgovernanceanddevelopmentclothed
in a contestable Jihadist ideology. The Boko Haram group which started as a small, highly localised
movementhasflourishedtoencompasshugeswathesofnorthernNigeriaandtheentireLakeChadBasin.
The entire Sahel belt stretching from West to East Africa has been in a state of continuous turmoil for
nearly two decades resulting in unconstitutional change of governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad,
Guinea and Niger. The Horn of Africa has equally been the hotbed of devastating conflicts in Somalia,
Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan. Official estimates put the fatalities from the Tigray conflict alone at over
600,000 deaths while the ongoing carnage in Sudan has already accounted for thousands of deaths,
"turning homes into cemeteries" with six million displaced people according to the latest United Nations
figures. The continent is also witnessing increased activities of rogue and/or mercenary groups, whose
modus operandi reflects the transnational nature of organised crime, such as the Wagner group's
operationsintheSahelandpartsoftheHornofAfrica.
Itisnotunusualinperiodsoftransitioninglobalorderforthosecountriesthataretheweakestlinkinthe
chain of power and influence to bear some of the biggest costs of change. Africa has been badly hit by
turbulence emanating from outside its boundaries, whether it is the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2007/2008
sub-prime economic crisis, fallouts from the global ambitions of new axis of power or even the global
climate change as a result of unsustainable production practices. Without doubt, turbulence in the
international system has been refracted into Africa to generate new problems or exacerbate pre-existing
social and economic conditions on the continent. In addition to rising poverty, growing inequality, currency
depreciation, mounting inflationary pressures, and persistently high levels of youth unemployment, a new
external debt crisis is hovering over many African countries, which potentially undermines the sovereignty of
these countries and threatens another round of austerity and externally-imposed adjustment, if not quickly
contained. Historic social gains of the early post-independence years and early wins of the first decade of the
returntodemocraticpolitics,hasseenAfricamovefromtheseasonofafro-pessimismofa"hopelesscontinent"
so-called to a season of afro-optimism of "Africa Rising". Unfortunately, the season of afro-optimism now
appearsshort-lived,leadingbacktoaseasonofanomie,wherethelegitimacyofthestateitselfisbeingcontested
andliberaldemocracyisincreasinglythreatened.

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
Africa's Opportunity
Inthefaceofthisseasonofanomie,thetemptationisstrong,andhasalreadybeenmanifested,toresortto
fragmented, disjointed and uncoordinated actions that produce dysfunctional outcomes and are largely
ineffectual in dealing with the most severe threats to peace and security on the continent. Yet, with the
erosion of the institutional capacity of the average African state, triggered by both internal and external
factors, African countries, big or small, have leveraged on efforts to seek a common response to the
problems of security and stability within their respective boundaries or across contiguous boundaries.
Historically, post cold war Africa has demonstrated a robust understanding of common security needs,
cross border nature of security challenges, the need for collective response to regional issues and
coordinationandharmonisationofactionsandpoliciesbyexternalactors.Thesehavebeendemonstrated
through collective commitment to certain principles and values with the establishment of common
protocols, norms and standards both at the continental level - at the African Union and at the regional
bodies - ECOWAS, SADC, IGAD, EAC to mention a few - to which all stakeholders subscribed. For a
period,thisseemedtohaveworkedwelltothegreatcreditandprideofthecontinent.However,itappears
thatmanyoftheseregionalpeaceinitiativesseemtobelosingsteamorgaininglesstraction.Twoexamples
in recent times will suffice here - it took the continental body, African Union close to a year to work out a
formula to tackle the Tigray conflict. We are also witnessing, rather helplessly, the unfolding carnage in
Sudan, without the operationalisation of any continental framework or roadmap, six months after the
outbreakofconflict.Thishasexposedthecreepingweaknessoftheregionalandsub-regionalinstitutions
mandatedtotacklethreatstopeaceandsecurityatboththesub-regionalandcontinentallevels.
However, this need not be so. Nor should it be allowed to continue. Every change comes with serious
adaptive challenges. However, embedded in every change and even the crisis it produces are also huge
opportunities. For us in Africa, one clear opportunity in the current development is the chance to win
ample autonomous space within which to advance our ambitions of structural transformation and, in
doing so, take a stand as a co-rule maker as the new global order gets fashioned out. We can do this by
collectivelyleveragingonourcompetitiveadvantage.Africa'ssheernumbersanddemographicassetsgiveit
amajoropportunitytoinfluencethecomingworldorder.AccordingtotheUnitedNations,by2050,one
infourpeopleontheplanetwillbeAfrican.In1950,Africansonlymadeup8%oftheworldpopulation.
By2040,Africawillhavealargerworkingagepopulationthantherestoftheworldcombined.The

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
medianageontheAfricancontinentis19.InIndia,itis28.InChinaandtheUnitedStates,itis38.With
the appropriate investments in education, healthcare and infrastructure, the continent's productive
potential would significantly increase. It will also boost demand from aging industrialised nations for
skilled humancapital.
Apart from the human resources, the region's abundant natural resources, if properly harnessed, could
increase Africa's strategic importance at the global market place.. The region boasts 90% of the world's
platinum and cobalt reserves, half of its gold supply, 35% of global uranium deposits, two-thirds of the
supplyofmanganese,andnearly75%oftheworld'scoltan.AblocofinfluentialAfricaneconomiesacting
togethertoofferprivilegedaccesstospecificnaturalresourcesinexchangeformorerobustandtransparent
financing for critical infrastructure projects, a more flexible network of security relationships, pragmatic
negotiations from climate finance to debt relief or market access for African exports would be more
effective,providedthisishandledasacollectiveratherthanindividualcountriesgoingitalone.
Leadership for a Peaceful and Prosperous Continent
Finally, let me spend a bit of the time left on the need to address the scourge of dependency, impact of
population dynamics and visionary leadership in response to the challenges of the multi-polar moment.
Based on current trends and evidence, there is no doubt that awareness is widespread in Africa about the
potentialopportunitiesfromwhichthecontinentcanprofitatatimeofglobaltransformation.However,
translating that awareness into comprehensive national-level policy and collective continental action has
proved to be daunting and elusive so far. Too many among African leaders are still trapped in outdated
models of conducting inter-state affairs in a manner that either wittingly or unwittingly reinforces old
dependenciesorsteersthemintonewones.Interestamongcompetitorinternationalactorsinthevarious
resources and endowments of the continent - human, mineral, land, agricultural, water, rain forests,
markets, geo- strategic opportunity, etc. - has not so far been successfully harnessed to serve Africa’s
priorities. Instead, encouraged to act individually before actors that are far more powerful than them,
Africancountrieshaveaccumulatedexternaldebts,WestandEast,inarelationshipthathaslaidthembare
andvulnerable.
This is where visionary leadership must come in to help in developing a strategic, coordinated, coherent,
and shared African approach to managing the turbulence in the international system as the process of
changegathersmomentum.Theunderlyinggoalmustbetoensurethatamidsttheturbulence,Africans

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Shifts
in Global Power Relations
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and all peoples of African descent do not become casualties and cannon-fodders as various interests
compete for advantage or supremacy. We must also ensure that the hard-won sovereignty of African
countries is jealously guarded and is not compromised on the altar of any external help in whatever guise.
While Africa needs to actively promote a vision of multilateralism in a world in transition, it must do so
withinthecontextofstrategicautonomy.
Visionary African leadership fit for these turbulent times will, additionally, demand close attention to the
new global order that is evolving slowly, and even chaotically, but surely. When the key pillars of the
post-1945 global order that has now come under strain were established, most of Africa was under direct
colonial rule and global Africa was under the weight of political oppression and exclusion. Today, the
continent has every reason to assume a seat at the table and play the role of a joint-rule maker for the new
order that is emerging. For this to happen, Africa requires nothing less than a complete reset in her
approach.Andthisbeginswithrefusingtobecorralledintothecornerofanyofthecompetingpowersand
insisting that the only thing that matters to us is the advancement of the needs and dignity of Africans at
homeandtheglobalAfricaatlarge.
To advance our own core interests and values, African leadership must also of necessity expunge the
dependency framework from their thinking and instead embrace the audacity to defend the rights and
interestsofAfricainglobalaffairsthathaseludedusforwaytoolong.Leadershipaudacitywasattheheart
of the launching of the pan-African project. That same audacity served Africa well in the march to
independence.Astheworldisbeingremadetoreflectshiftsinthebalanceofpower,thatoldaudacitymust
berediscoveredanddeployedtomaximumeffectandformaximumbenefit.Outoftheturbulenceofthe
moment, the path for continental rebirth must be cleared and a conscious effort must be made to extend
the rebirth to global Africa. Opportunities for this abound in large measure if only the continent is ready
toseizethemoment.
ThatAfricahasgeopoliticalcloutinmultilateralinstitutionsandbroaderglobalforahastakengreaterresonance
inthewakeoftheconflictinUkraine.USeffortstoisolateRussiaontheglobalstage,forexample,havebeen
hurtbyRussia'stiesinAfrica.OnlytenAfricancountriesvotedinfavourofaUSsponsored resolution to
suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council in April 2023 whilst the majority of African
countrieschosetoabstain.AndinSeptember2023,official delegations from 48 African countries attended
theRussia-AfricasummitinStPetersburgdespite ongoing condemnationofRussia'sactionsinUkraine.

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@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
However, African countries were also well represented in China's Belt and Road Summit in Beijing in
October 2023 and at the US - Africa Summit in December 2022. The choice should not be between the
West and the East. Africa should be pragmatic in dealing with both sides of the geopolitical divide.
Pragmatismshouldalsomeaninsistingonthereformoftheinstitutionsthatemergedfromthepost1945
AmericaledorderliketheUNandtheBrettonWoodsduo-IMFandtheWorldBank.Giventhepressure
these global governance and security institutions are experiencing, we need to empower regional
frameworks and organisations as critical building blocks for an emergent multilateral security and
governancearchitecture.
It might be tempting, based on the sheer number of bilateral summits in which African leaders have, in
recent times, been participating to conclude that the continent is well-placed to play a core role in a new
multilateralsystem.Thatassumptionis,however,yettobeprovengiventhefactthatforalltheplethora of
summitsandthepompandcircumstanceofsummitriesthatfilltheair,Africancountriesthatanswerthe
call to meet as a bloc with Europe, the United States, Russia, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, UAE, do not go to the meeting on the basis of a shared agenda. This is in sharp contrast to their
hosts that all invariably have clearly defined objectives of what they want from and out of Africa in the
short, medium, and long term. Unable to fashion out clear policy objectives for engaging in the various
summits and failing to devise mechanisms for speaking with one voice, the various engagements have
generallytakenontheformofdonor-recipientsessions,completewithpatronisingstatementsandactions
from the hosts. African leaders will need to do better than this. Although there is nothing intrinsically
wrong with seeking partnerships with other countries, it should be on the basis of mutual accountability
andmutualbenefit.
ToaddressandtranscendtheweaknessesintheAfricanengagementwiththechangingworldorder,steps
needtobetakentofillthemanifestgapsinpolicyandleadershipwithoutwhichAfricacannotshiftfrom
playing by other peoples’ rules to becoming a co-rule maker. For a shift in paradigm, Africa only needs to
tap into its rich history and its leaders to deliberately mobilise themselves to win the future for a region of
theworldthatisdestined-withthecorrectpolicy-leadershipacumen-tobecometheworld’sprimarypole
of growth and development. This is a commitment that speaks to a combined effort to win power,
influence,andprestigeforAfricaasanequalco-rulemakerofthenewworldorder.
ButthisalsoplacesanonerousburdenonAfrica'sleadersatthishistoricmoment.Perhaps,mostcriticalin

13. 13
@kfayemi @JKFayemi John Kayode Fayemi PhD.
Shifts
in Global Power Relations
and Implications for Africa
this transition period is the opportunity by African leaders and institutions to collectively address the
structural drivers of conflict and instability that undermine peace on the continent - with two
inter-connected ones particularly in desperate need of laser beam attention - poverty and inequality. A
majorchallengethat the liberal,democraticorderis experiencing onthe continentnaythe entire globe,as
a result of these structural factors is the growing dissatisfaction with electoralism - liberal governance models
whichplacealotofemphasisonprocessesratherthandevelopmentaloutcomesanddisproportionatelyfavour
the pursuit of private gains at the expense of more structural economic transformation. In 2022, an
Afrobarometer survey found only 43 percent of respondents in 30 African countries "satisfied" with "how
democracy works" in their respective countries, down seven percentage points from a decade prior. The twin
problemofpovertyandinequality,hasinrecentyears,beenthescourgeofdemocraticdevelopmentinAfrica.It
isattherootsofthemanyotherdiscontentsthathavefedandfuelledpublicangerinmanyAfricancountries.
They provide the underlying context for explaining why religious extremism, ethnic irredentism,
inter-communalconflicts,unconstitutionalchangeofgovernments, gender based violence, intergenerational
discordsandamulti-facetedcriminalityhavebeen ascendantonthecontinent.
A primary duty of any political leadership is the incremental improvement in the welfare, social mobility
andthewellnessofthecitizenry,thesecurityofthepopulace,thecohesionofsocietyandtheenhancementofthe
productive capacity of the country. These are all closely interconnected purposes of nation building and
statecraft.Theycomprisethefirstorderdomainsofleadershipactionbywhichajustpeacemaybesecuredand
sustained.Investingcontinuouslyandassiduouslyinthemensurestheexistenceofthecorefoundationalpillars
upon which other things can be added in order to nurture a culture of just and sustainable peace in the
governance system. So, tackling the structural drivers of exclusion and social injustice is a sine qua non for
winningjustpeaceandsecurity.Consequently,ifAfricamustwinaseatattheglobalpowertable,Africanleaders
mustalsomakeconcreteeffortstowintheheartsandmindsofthemajorityoftheirownpeople.
OnlythenwillAfricastandagoodchanceofbreakingoutofoldframesofthoughtandactionthathaveleftthe
continent in a prolonged state of underdevelopment and dependency and reap the opportunities of the
multipolarmoment.Andthatiswhythepublicandprivatesectorsonthecontinent mustinvestinadeliberate
policyofdevelopingleadershipcapacitiesthatequip anewgenerationofleaderswiththetoolstonavigatethis
rapidlychangingworld.
Ithankyouallforlistening.