Sheet1EgyptGDP by Expenditure2005 US $assumptionsYearYCGIXMconsumption functionC=-20.4862982766+0.7460897862Y200078737.729587024359249.64476852068727.885739464114772.050070512318701.439762282822713.2907537555200181512.515401750161320.14166497139154.938252751614178.318154531519316.843630253422457.7263007577trend GDPRy=b=0.0449366764200284109.10396237862913.11581920269608.681548019114890.796453816617812.52306429221116.0129229523200386728.495429143964038.45466320599914.042190424114245.241694184719917.172763625621386.4158822964Import DemandM=Y200490302.410904929765505.324210443810219.402832902215062.944389646424588.468437457925073.7289655206200594456.32180659368828.574449917810505.54611219116613.541606264229555.835798517631047.1761602976Last 5 Years I/Y2006100973.80801124173280.255156930910832.567002848618828.680487085135839.555510440837807.25014606442007108092.58754227678448.702815302610853.00580853323303.261026347444184.732677089148697.1147849961Average X/Y 2000-20142008115850.57130333682468.862631922311084.468017679126904.537682077556892.991343073361500.28837141622009121295.54815456186997.952484219511701.700575548524458.670620090148636.545512291150499.32103758822010127481.62111044390561.662750439712228.920051973626409.362141840347185.293750957248903.61758476782011129951.22178650396646.473530784312691.844470412225854.165324178847773.639059688753014.9005985612012132810.148665824103875.04631698313090.473830644927909.894081772946675.394483525858740.66004710312013135600.392703195105792.35175105713543.886890700825226.460439558849428.986791371558391.29316949322014138533.933462906113520.54398606614333.703188862626394.252007270943224.867059992358939.4327792858projected2015144759.232830929108023.9023228282016151264.278476652112877.2518286452017158061.641358557117948.6963012062018165164.457336287123248.036274032019172586.452555608128785.5126872132020180341.969974099134571.826677975 Sheet1Y=XC=YXYx-xbary-ybar(x-xbar)(y-ybar)(x-xbar)^2787385925078737.729587024359249.6447685206-1547698.68024508-1154197.462231451786349889037.832395371204832.35C=-20.4862982766+0.7460897862815136132081512.515401750161320.1416649713-1544923.89443035-1152126.9653351779948478163.572386789839581.84841096291384109.10396237862913.1158192026-1542327.30586972-1150533.991180771774499990929.372378773518431.35867286403886728.495429143964038.4546632059-1539707.91440296-1149408.652336761769753598886.152370700461675.1903026550590302.410904929765505.3242104438-1536133.99892717-1147941.782789531763392401332.062359707662659.98944566882994456.32180659368828.5744499178-1531980.08802551-1144618.532550051753532800251.662346962990106.6410097473280100973.80801124173280.2551569309-1525462.60182086-1140166.851843041739281892322.382327036149554.0610809378449108092.58754227678448.7028153026-1518343.82228982-1134998.404184671723317815302.62305367962685.6711585182469115850.57130333682468.8626319223-1510585.83852876-1130978.244368051708439719626.52281869575563.6512129686998121295.54815456186997.9524842195.

1. Sheet1EgyptGDP by Expenditure2005 US
$assumptionsYearYCGIXMconsumption functionC=-
20.4862982766+0.7460897862Y200078737.729587024359249.6
4476852068727.885739464114772.050070512318701.43976228
2822713.2907537555200181512.515401750161320.1416649713
9154.938252751614178.318154531519316.843630253422457.7
263007577trend
GDPRy=b=0.0449366764200284109.10396237862913.11581920
269608.681548019114890.796453816617812.52306429221116.
0129229523200386728.495429143964038.45466320599914.042
190424114245.241694184719917.172763625621386.415882296
4Import
DemandM=Y200490302.410904929765505.324210443810219.4
02832902215062.944389646424588.468437457925073.7289655
206200594456.32180659368828.574449917810505.5461121911
6613.541606264229555.835798517631047.1761602976Last 5
Years
I/Y2006100973.80801124173280.255156930910832.567002848
618828.680487085135839.555510440837807.250146064420071
08092.58754227678448.702815302610853.00580853323303.26
1026347444184.732677089148697.1147849961Average X/Y
2000-
20142008115850.57130333682468.862631922311084.46801767
9126904.537682077556892.991343073361500.28837141622009
121295.54815456186997.952484219511701.700575548524458.
670620090148636.545512291150499.32103758822010127481.6
2111044390561.662750439712228.920051973626409.36214184
0347185.293750957248903.61758476782011129951.221786503
96646.473530784312691.844470412225854.165324178847773.
639059688753014.9005985612012132810.148665824103875.04
631698313090.473830644927909.894081772946675.394483525
858740.66004710312013135600.392703195105792.3517510571
3543.886890700825226.460439558849428.986791371558391.2
9316949322014138533.933462906113520.54398606614333.703

2. 188862626394.252007270943224.867059992358939.432779285
8projected2015144759.232830929108023.902322828201615126
4.278476652112877.2518286452017158061.641358557117948.
6963012062018165164.457336287123248.03627403201917258
6.452555608128785.5126872132020180341.969974099134571.
826677975
Sheet1Y=XC=YXYx-xbary-ybar(x-xbar)(y-ybar)(x-
xbar)^2787385925078737.729587024359249.6447685206-
1547698.68024508-
1154197.462231451786349889037.832395371204832.35C=-
20.4862982766+0.7460897862815136132081512.515401750161
320.1416649713-1544923.89443035-
1152126.9653351779948478163.572386789839581.8484109629
1384109.10396237862913.1158192026-1542327.30586972-
1150533.991180771774499990929.372378773518431.35867286
403886728.495429143964038.4546632059-1539707.91440296-
1149408.652336761769753598886.152370700461675.19030265
50590302.410904929765505.3242104438-1536133.99892717-
1147941.782789531763392401332.062359707662659.98944566
882994456.32180659368828.5744499178-1531980.08802551-
1144618.532550051753532800251.662346962990106.64100974
73280100973.80801124173280.2551569309-1525462.60182086-
1140166.851843041739281892322.382327036149554.06108093
78449108092.58754227678448.7028153026-1518343.82228982-
1134998.404184671723317815302.62305367962685.671158518
2469115850.57130333682468.8626319223-1510585.83852876-
1130978.244368051708439719626.52281869575563.651212968
6998121295.54815456186997.9524842195-1505140.86167754-
1126449.154515751695464651063.772265449013491.41274829
0562127481.62111044390561.6627504397-1498954.78872166-
1122885.444249531683154513843.682246865458631.59129951
96646129951.22178650396646.4735307843-1496485.1880456-
1116800.633469191671275605986.582239467918039.87132810
103875132810.148665824103875.046316983-
1493626.26116628-

3. 1109572.060682991657285968492.492230919408045.55135600
105792135600.392703195105792.351751057-1490836.0171289-
1107654.755248911651331603669.182222592029968.78138534
113521138533.933462906113520.543986066-
1487902.47636919-
1099926.56301391636583456932.642213853779185.58total257
93612385840.434571726972453.41626436.40983211213447.10
6999971626436.40983211213447.10699997b=0.7460897862108
42980896X barY bara=-20.4862982766X barY
barY=XC=YXYx-xbary-ybar(x-xbar)(y-ybar)(x-
xbar)^2200011.2738777298200011.27-7-
0.30096676382.106767346349200111.3085118507200111.31-6-
0.26633264291.597995857336200211.3398700917200211.34-5-
0.23497440181.17487200925200311.3705377758200311.37-4-
0.20430671780.817226871116200411.4109194379200411.41-3-
0.16392505570.4917751679200511.4558928035200511.46-2-
0.118951690.237903384200611.5226164356200611.52-1-
0.0522280580.0522280581200711.5907434309200711.5900.015
898937400200811.6600564613200811.6610.08521196770.0852
1196771200911.7059853931200911.7120.13114089960.262281
79924201011.755727485201011.7630.18088299150.542648974
59201111.774914442201111.7740.20006994850.800279793816
201211.7966759338201211.8050.22183144021.1091572012252
01311.8174675505201311.8260.2426230571.455738341936201
411.8388705816201411.8470.2640260881.848182616149total12
.5822693832280200711.5748444935200711.57b=0.0449366764
b=4.4936676368X barY barX barY bara=-78.6130649779
UNdata_Export_20161119_23184881EgyptGDP by
Expenditure2005 US $YearYCGIXMln YYearYCGIXMX-MS-
I20007873859250872814772187012271311.2738777298200010
075.211.118.823.828.8-5.1-
5.120018151361320915514178193172245811.30851185072001
10075.211.217.423.727.6-3.9-
3.920028410962913960914891178132111611.33987009172002
10074.811.417.721.225.1-3.9-

4. 3.920038672864038991414245199172138611.37053777582003
10073.811.416.423.024.7-1.7-
1.7200490302655051021915063245882507411.4109194379200
410072.511.316.727.227.8-0.5-
0.5200594456688291050616614295563104711.4558928035200
510072.911.117.631.332.9-1.6-
1.62006100974732801083318829358403780711.522616435620
0610072.610.718.635.537.4-1.9-
1.92007108093784491085323303441854869711.590743430920
0710072.610.021.640.945.1-4.2-
4.22008115851824691108426905568936150011.660056461320
0810071.29.623.249.153.1-4.0-
4.02009121296869981170224459486375049911.705985393120
0910071.79.620.240.141.6-1.5-
1.52010127482905621222926409471854890411.755727485201
010071.09.620.737.038.4-1.3-
1.32011129951966461269225854477745301511.774914442201
110074.49.819.936.840.8-4.0-
4.020121328101038751309027910466755874111.79667593382
01210078.29.921.035.144.2-9.1-
9.120131356001057921354425226494295839111.81746755052
01310078.010.018.636.543.1-6.6-
6.620141385341135211433426394432255893911.83887058162
01410081.910.319.131.242.5-11.3-
11.3AnnualGrowthRates32.8YearYCGIXM200020013.523.494.8
9-4.023.29-1.1320023.192.604.965.03-7.79-
5.9720033.111.793.18-
4.3411.821.2820044.122.293.085.7423.4517.2420054.605.072.8
010.2920.2023.8220066.906.473.1113.3321.2621.7720077.057.
050.1923.7623.2828.8020087.185.122.1315.4528.7626.2920094
.705.495.57-9.09-14.51-17.8920105.104.104.517.98-2.98-
3.1620111.946.723.79-2.101.258.4120122.207.483.147.95-
2.3010.8020132.101.853.46-9.615.90-
0.5920142.167.315.834.63-12.550.94
Take Home Midterm for Statistical Decision Making

5. Due November 29. 2016
The following model should be used for projecting the GDP by
expenditure data to 2020 for your country:
1. Production Function:
Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) = 1/b
Growth Rate of GDP =
If b<0 use ln(Y) = a + b year to estimate Ry.
2. Consumption Function: C = a + b Y
If a<0 or b>1 or the t-value for b is not > 2 (absolute value) use
the average propensity to consume from 2010 to 2014 instead of
the equation.
3. Import Function: M = a + b Y
If a<0 or b>1 or the t-value for b is not > 2 (absolute value) use

6. the average propensity to import from 2010 to 2014 instead of
the equation.
4. Export Function: ln(X) = a + b year
Your report should be printed in a WORD document. It should
follow the format shown for Australia which is below.
Please observe the decimal place conventions for each table as
demonstrated below.
Name___________Campano______________Country Australia
1. Production Function: 674526.4 + 0.098021
(t=116.9) (t=30.11) R sq =
.986
ICOR = 1/.098021 = 10.20188,
I/Y = average share from 2010 to 2014= 31.22853
Growth rate of Y = 31.22853/10.20188=3.061055
2. Consumption Function: C= -41927.2 + 0.621904 Y
(t=-4.15) (t=50.19) R sq = .995
Wrong sign for “a” coefficient: C=.5764805Y substituted
(average Propensity to consume from 2010 to 2014)
3. Import Function: M = -244987 + 0.536144Y
(t=-10.3) (t=18.5) R sq = .963
Wrong sign for “a” coefficient: M=.2729894Y substituted
(average Propensity to import from 2010 to 2014)
4. Export Function: lnX =-51.9519 + 0031866 Year
(t=-12.4) (t = 15.3)
Australia
GDP by
Expenditure
2005
US $

7. Year
Y
C
G
I
X
M
Yt+1
ΣI
ln X
2000
642915
356746
111993
137557
140097
103477
667752
137557
11.85009
2001
667752

8. 369036
115492
149155
138968
104899
688314
286712
11.842
2002
688314
382881
118996
165935
139244
118743
716924
452647.6
11.84398
2003
716924
401594
124023
184858
140930
134482
739984
637505.9
11.85602
2004
739984
419616
128015
197887
145630
151164
762114

9. 835392.8
11.88882
2005
762114
432967
132033
210886
149345
163117
790771
1046279
11.91401
2006
790771
453645
136239
225571
155151
179835
820047
1271850
11.95216
2007
820047
475741
140573
248925
160663
205856
834249
1520775
11.98707
2008
834249
475248
146610

10. 247232
163476
198317
850620
1768007
12.00442
2009
850620
487278
149255
253278
171879
211070
870367
2021285
12.05454
2010
870367
507665
154326
267614
173474
232713
902813
2288899
12.06379
2011
902813
523454
160283
296537
182203
259663
925491
2585435
12.11287

11. 2012
925491
533495
160255
300114
193085
261459
949051
2885550
12.17089
2013
949051
544710
164110
291823
204251
255844
975012
3177373
12.2271
2014
975012
554708
167445
286390
217897
251427
12.29178
Projected

12. 2015
1004858
579281
175411
313802
210679
274316
12.25809
2016
1035617
597013
180408
323408
217500
282712
12.28996
2017
1067318
615288
185546
333308
224543
291366
12.32182
2018
1099989
634122

13. 190828
343510
231813
300285
12.35369
2019
1133660
653533
196260
354025
239319
309477
12.38555
2020
1168362
673538
201844
364862
247068
318951
12.41742

20. Australia
Shares
Of GDP
Year
Y
C
G
I
X
M
2000
100
55.5
17.4
21.4
21.8
16.1
2001
100
55.3
17.3

21. 22.3
20.8
15.7
2002
100
55.6
17.3
24.1
20.2
17.3
2003
100
56.0
17.3
25.8
19.7
18.8
2004
100
56.7
17.3
26.7
19.7
20.4
2005
100
56.8
17.3
27.7
19.6
21.4
2006
100
57.4
17.2
28.5

22. 19.6
22.7
2007
100
58.0
17.1
30.4
19.6
25.1
2008
100
57.0
17.6
29.6
19.6
23.8
2009
100
57.3
17.5
29.8
20.2
24.8
2010
100
58.3
17.7
30.7
19.9
26.7
2011
100
58.0
17.8
32.8
20.2

23. 28.8
2012
100
57.6
17.3
32.4
20.9
28.3
2013
100
57.4
17.3
30.7
21.5
27.0
2014
100
56.9
17.2
29.4
22.3
25.8
Projected
2015
100
57.6
17.5
31.2
21.0
27.3
2016

24. 100
57.6
17.4
31.2
21.0
27.3
2017
100
57.6
17.4
31.2
21.0
27.3
2018
100
57.6
17.3
31.2
21.1
27.3
2019
100
57.6
17.3
31.2
21.1
27.3
2020
100
57.6
17.3
31.2
21.1
27.3

25. Australia
Year
Y
C
G
I
X
M
2009
1.96
2.53
1.80
2.45
5.14
6.43
2010
2.32
4.18
3.40
5.66
0.93
10.25
2011

26. 3.73
3.11
3.86
10.81
5.03
11.58
2012
2.51
1.92
-0.02
1.21
5.97
0.69
2013
2.55
2.10
2.41
-2.76
5.78
-2.15
2014
2.74
1.84
2.03
-1.86
6.68
-1.73
projected
2015
3.06
4.43

27. 4.76
9.57
-3.31
9.10
2016
3.06
3.06
2.85
3.06
3.24
3.06
2017
3.06
3.06
2.85
3.06
3.24
3.06
2018
3.06
3.06
2.85
3.06
3.24
3.06
2019
3.06
3.06
2.85
3.06
3.24
3.06
2020
3.06
3.06
2.85

28. 3.06
3.24
3.06