Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) Survey indicates tempering of dealer optimism across all vehicle categories. Optimism levels across vehicle categories have tempered slightly as compared to the results at the end of the previous quarter. That said, the index at the end of 2014 represents a substantially more optimistic sentiment than at the start of the year.
2. sewellsgroup.comPage 1
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
G
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
SEWELLS GROUP
INDEX
Globally, confidence indices are viewed as reliable precursors to business
performance. Such indices aim to capture and quantify the sentiment of
various industry stakeholders â be it CXOs, suppliers, vendors or distribution
partners who usually are in the middle of the action. People within the
industry, typically use these indices to get a sense of stakeholder sentiment
and optimize their actions in line with the sentiment. Market analysts, on the
other hand, interpret theses indices as a âlead indicatorsâ of the performance
of a particular industry or sector. An accurate, representative index may
demonstratesahighlevelofcorrelationwithactualbusinessperformance.
The automotive industry in India has been a sunrise sector contributing a
significant share to countryâs GDP. A healthy and growing domestic market, an
active and constructive involvement from the government, growth of
domestic auto manufacturers to become true global players and presence of
multiple global brands in the country have made sure that this industry has
comeofitsage. Witheverythingelsebeingexecutedataglobalscaleandwith
global vision, we believe that the time has come for Indian auto industry to
haveadealerconfidenceindex.
The important role played by auto dealers in this industry is already known.
With their unique position at the market place, auto dealers are usually in
touch with ground realities. And therefore such an indicator should be able
position itself as useful signalling device for various stakeholders within the
automotiveindustryecoâsystem.
3. S
sewellsgroup.comPage 2
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is a measure of
dealer sentiment about their business over next six months from the time it
isbeingcaptured.Itwillbepublishedonaquarterlybasis.
Within the automotive industry, dealers enjoy a unique position close to the
âactiononthegroundâ.Theyareinconstanttouchwithprospects,customers,
factory staff, competition dealers, financiers and other market
intermediaries. Consequently, each dealer gets exposed to a plethora of
information that in turn shapes his / her sentiment about the future of
markets and businesses. The Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index (ADCI) is an attempt to capture and quantify this well informed
sentiment of the auto dealers from across the length and breadth of the
country, representing multiple brands and product categories. We aim to be
able to represent this collective sentiment in the form of an index, whose
movement over time will reliably predict the direction of the wholesale and
theretailsaleswithintheindustry.
We believe publication of such an index will allow industry stakeholders to
have meaningful conversations in time, which in turn will help them put
togetherbetterstrategiestoperformatthemarketplace.
4. sewellsgroup.comPage 3
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
T
The Sewells Group ADCI is designed to be a quarterly index that will be
computed on the basis of responses received to a structured questionnaire
from the automotive dealer fraternity in Indian market. The questionnaire
attempts to capture their sentiment about economy in general and their
businessinparticularonasixmonthforwardhorizon.
Sewells Group proposes to track the trend of the index which will offer an
insight into the future direction of the market. We believe that it is the
movement of the index which will offer greater insights than the absolute
valueoftheindexinaparticularquarter.
In this fourth edition of the ADCI, we attemptto capture the sentiment of the
dealer fraternity at the end of OctâDec quarter of 2014. The findings of this
survey are compared with the findings of the previous three editions to map
the trend. We propose to repeat the survey at the end of each following
quarter.
For this edition, a questionnaire was distributed electronically (by email) to
thedealerfraternityinIndia.Atotalof172responsesreceived,fromdealers,
representing 31 brands were used to compute the index. Every effort has
been made to ensure that the index is statistically meaningful and
representative of dealer sentiment. However, we advise reader discretion
while considering the statistical significance. At this stage, ADCI is designed
onlyforâexploratoryâandâindicativeâpurposes.
The fourth edition of the survey represents an interesting point, when the
government has started taking major policy decisions. The formation of a
majorityGovernmentattheCentreresultedinaspikeinoptimismacrossthe
automotive retail trade earlier in the year, and we are now seeing some of
this enthusiasm get tempered by market realities. Automotive dealersâan
important part of country's business fraternity, expect that, an improved
economic environment & government policies will translate into improved
performanceforthem.
5. sewellsgroup.comPage 4
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
PASSENGER CARS TWOâWHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS
65
4416
14
98
PASSENGER CARS PASSENGER CARSTWOâWHEELERS TWOâWHEELERSCOMMERCIAL VEHICLES COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
PASSENGER CARS TWOâWHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES OVERALL
70%
28%
2% BEFORE 1975
1975 â 1990
1990 â 2005
AFTER 2005
AGEOFDEALERSHIPSLOCATIONOFRESPONDENTS
BRANDSREPRESENTED
31 BRANDS125 CITIES
9%
60%31% 10353
*
16
172
32%
21%
47%
25%
19%
47%
13%
54%
9%
35%
2%
*Subâsample size low. Reader discretion advised while considering the statistical significance.
6. sewellsgroup.comPage 5
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
END OF OCT-DEC 14 QUARTER
INDIA
INDEX
SEWELLS GROUP
The ADCI is designed to vary between â100 and +100, where an index score of â
100 represents the most pessimistic outlook, and +100 indicates the most
optimistic outlook. The index is based on how dealers see the overall market
andtheirbusinessesperforminginnextsixmonths
Thehighlevelfindingsofthesecondeditionofthesurveyaregivenbelow:
⢠The overall ADCI stood at +7 indicating a mildly optimistic sentiment
amongstthedealerssurveyed.
⢠The passenger car ADCI stands at +9, representing a mildly optimistic
sentimentamongstdealers.
⢠The commercial vehicle ADCI stands at â19, indicating a pessimistic
outlookofthecommercialvehicledealers.
⢠The two wheeler dealers are not as optimistic as they were in the previous
quarter. The index for the two wheeler dealers is +10, indicating a slight
optimisticsentiment.
0-80-100 -40-60 -20 +80 +100+40 +60+20
PESSIMISTIC NEUTRALMODERATELY PESSIMISTIC MODERATELY OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC
OVERALL
PASSENGER
CARS
COMMERCIAL
VEHICLES
TWO-WHEELERS
7
10
-19
9
7. sewellsgroup.comPage 6
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
END OF OCT-DEC 14 QUARTER
INDEX-TREND
SEWELLS GROUP
ď§ Passenger car dealers continued to remain optimistic about business
prospects in spite of a duller than expected festive period. The index for
passenger cars segment stood at +9 at the end of OctâDec quarter, as
comparedto+8attheendofJulâSepquarter.
ď§ The index for twoâwheeler dealers saw a significant dip in the OctâDec 2014
quarter when compared with the JulâSep quarter of 2014. The index moved
from +35 to +10 at the end of OctâDec quarter of 2014, indicating a drop in
optimismlevelsofthetwoâwheelerdealers.
ď§ Commercial vehicle dealers, who displayed some signs of revival in the
previous survey, seem to continue remaining guarded about business
prospects over the next six months. The index stood at â19 at the end of Octâ
Dec2014quarter.
ď§ Overall, the ADCI at the end of OctâDec quarter stands at +7 indicating an
optimistic sentiment. However, the fact that it has dropped from +14 at the
endofthepreviousquarterpointstoaslighttemperingofdealersentiment.
0
+80
+100
+40
+60
+20
-80
-100
-40
-60
-20
MODERATELY
PESSIMISTIC
MODERATELY
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTICNEUTRALOPTIMISTIC
End of Q1-2014 End of Q2-2014 End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014
End of Q1-2014 End of Q2-2014 End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014
-40 -3 +8 +9
-20 0 +14 +7
+13
-32
+18 +35 +10
-38 -3 -19
SEGMENT
PASSENGER CARS
OVERALL
TWO-WHEELERS
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
OVERALL
PASSENGER
CARS
TWO-
WHEELERS
COMMERCIAL
VEHICLES
8. sewellsgroup.com
Future view of manpower
strength of the business
Expected performance of the
market as well as the
dealership over the next six
months
Expected levels of sales,
inventory and profits over the
next six months
View on the current situation
of sales, inventory and profits
visâĂ âvis same period last year
Impact of the current
economic scenario on the
market, as well as the
dealership business
View on the current situation
of sales, inventory and profits
visâĂ âvis previous quarter
06
08
02
04
Page 7
07
05
03
01
Impact of the Current
Economic Scenario on the
Market
Expected Market
Performance Over Next Six
Months
Dealership Performance visâ
aâvis Same Period Previous
Year
Expected Dealership
Performance Over Next Six
Months
Impact of the Current
Economic Scenario on the
Dealership
Expected Dealership
Performance Over Next Six
Months
Dealership Performance visâ
aâvis Previous Quarter
Expected Manpower
Strength Over Next Six
Months
page 8 page 9
page 10 page 11
page 12 page 15
page 18 page 21
ANALYSIS OF SURVEY FINDINGS
The ADCI survey delves into the following areas:
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
INDEX
SEWELLS GROUP
The following pages carry details of responses received during the
third edition of the survey for questions covering the above areas.
Sewells Group intends to administer the ADCI survey every quarter,
and intends to track the movement of questionâlevel distribution
onaquarterlybasis.
To map the trend, the findings of this survey are compared with the
findings of the previous three editions which captured the
sentiments of the dealer fraternity in the first three quarters of
2014.
This section of analysis presents the distribution of responses
across multiple questions that were asked in the survey and
comparedwiththefindingsoftheprevioussurveys.
9. ď§ Dealers do not seem to be as satisfied with the current economic
scenario as they were at the end of previous quarter. About 64% of the
dealers feel that the current economic conditions are not beneficial to
themarket(upfrom40%attheendoftheJulâSepquarter).
ď§ 45% of the passenger car dealers feel that the economic scenario has a
positive impact on the market as compared to the 58% who were of the
sameopinionattheendofJulâSep2014quarter.
ď§ As against the 78% two wheeler dealers who felt that the economic
scenario at the end of JulâSe 2014 quarter had a positive impact on the
market,only45%feelsoattheendofOctâDec2014quarter.
ď§ 38% of the commercial vehicle dealers consider that the current
economicscenariois impactingthemarketpositively(downfrom45%at
theendofpreviousquarter.
sewellsgroup.com
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
1
CURRENT
ECONOMIC
SCENARIO
IMPACT OF THE
ON THE MARKET 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4%
11%
58%
27%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
7%
34%
41%
18%
5%
55%
32%
8%
3%
43%
42%
12%
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
Page 8
3%
44%
41%
13% 4%
43%
43%
9%
0%
38%
44%
19%
10. ⢠About 48% of the dealers feel that the current economic scenario is
encouraging for the dealership business at the end of OctâDec 2014
quarter.
⢠Passenger car dealers (54%) continue to feel that the economic scenario
isnotsupportivetotheirdealershipbusiness.
⢠57% of the two wheeler dealers believe that the economic scenario has a
positive impact on their business as against 69% who were of the same
opinionattheendofJulâSep2014quarter.
⢠Commercial vehicle dealers are still as pessismistic as in the end of Julâ
Sep 2014 quarter. 31% of these feel positive that the current economic
scenarioisencouraging.
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
sewellsgroup.comPage 9
2
CURRENT
ECONOMIC
SCENARIOON THE DEALERSHIP
IMPACT OF THE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
3%
18%
53%
26%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
5%
29%
46%
20%
6%
45%
37%
12%
4%
44%
39%
13%
6%
41%
41%
13%
2%
55%
34%
9%
0%
31%
44%
25%
11. ď§ About 66% of dealers expect the market performance to improve in the
nextsixmonths.
ď§ Passenger car dealer sentiment about the expected market performance
continues to remain same as in the end of JulâSep 2014 quarter 69% of
the passenger car dealers anticipate a positive market performance in
thenextsixmonths.
ď§ Sentiments of both the two wheeler and commercial vehicle dealers
regarding the expected market performance has fallen as compared to
the results of the previous quarter. 66% of two wheeler dealers (down
from 78%) and 50% of commercial vehicle dealers (down from 60%) feel
thatthemarketisgoingtobepositiveinthenextsixmonths.
3MARKET
OVER NEXT SIX
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
sewellsgroup.comPage 10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
â40
38%
46%
5%
11%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
7%
60%
26%
7%
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
12%
58%
26%
3%
11%
55%
27%
7%
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
11%
58%
25%
6% 15%
51%
28%
6%
0%
50%
31%
19%
12. ď§ Overall, the dealers continue to remain as optimistic as they were in the
previous quarter (up from 70% at the end of JulâSep 2014 quarter to 71%
attheendofOctâDec2014quarter).
ď§ On one hand where the excitement of the passenger car dealers about
the expected dealership performance has gone up from 70% in quarter
endingSeptember2014to76%inquarterendingDecember2014,onthe
other hand there is a slight dip in this same anticipation of the two
wheeler dealers (down from 8% at the end of JulâSep quarter to 68% at
theendofOctâDec2014quarter).
ď§ A dip in the sentiment is seen in the commercial vehicle dealers. 44%
commercial vehicle dealers surveyed expect that their dealership
performance will be better in the next six months as against 60% of the
surveyed dealers who were of thesame opinion at the end of JulâSep
2014quarter.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
%OFRESPONDENTS
9%
51%
32%
8%
4
DEALERSHIP
OVER NEXT SIX
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
OVERALL
11%
59%
23%
7%
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
14%
58%
23%
5%
13%
58%
23%
7%
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
sewellsgroup.comPage 11
15%
61%
18%
6% 13%
55%
25%
8%
0%
44%
44%
13%
13. sewellsgroup.comPage 12
5
PERFORMANCE
YEAR
DEALERSHIP
VIS-Ă-VIS SAME PERIOD
PREVIOUS
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
29%
24%
27%
20%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
20%
23%
37%
20%
ď§ 59% of passenger car dealers (down from 64% at the end of JulâSep 2014
quarter) feel that their inventory levels have gone up visâaâvis same
periodpreviousyear.
ď§ 38% of commercial vehicle dealers surveyed (down from 68% at the end
of JulâSep 2014 quarter) feel that their inventory levels are higher than
thatinthesameperiodpreviousyear.
ď§ 80% of the two wheeler dealers at the end of OctâDec 2014 quarter feel
that their inventory levels have gone upvisâaâvis same period previous
year.
17%
35%
34%
14%
18%
31%
26%
25%
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
19%
29%
25%
26% 23%
36%
26%
15%
0%
25%
25%
50%
14. SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
5
PERFORMANCE
YEAR
DEALERSHIP
VIS-Ă-VIS SAME PERIOD
PREVIOUS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
8%
21%
36%
35%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
31%
34%
26%
9%
ď§ Inventory levels for the dealers is still higher as compared to the same
period previous year (down from 69% in the JulâSep 2014 quarter to 63%
inOctâDec2014quarter).
ď§ Passengercardealersseemstohavemanagedtheirinventory levelswell.
59% (down from 64%) feel that their inventory levels have gone up when
comparedtotheOctâDec2013quarter.
ď§ Only 38%This is also true in the case of the commercial vehicle dealers.
(down from 68%) of these surveyed dealers feel that their inventory
levelsarehigherthanthatinthesameperiodpreviousyear.Thiscouldbe
because of their cautious attitude regarding their expected dealership
businessinthenextsixmonths.
ď§ However, the two wheeler dealers seem to have struggled this quarter
with inventory levels. 80% of dealers feel that their inventory levels have
gone up when compared with the previous year. One of the reason could
betheanticipatedsalesduringthisquarter.
30%
39%
26%
5%
25%
38%
27%
9%
sewellsgroup.comPage 13
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
20%
39%
31%
10%
42%
38%
15%
6%
0%
38%
44%
19%
15. PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
5
PERFORMANCE
YEAR
DEALERSHIP
VIS-Ă-VIS SAME PERIOD
PREVIOUS
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
43%
24%
21%
12%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
13%
20%
26%
41%
ď§ 42%ofdealersfeelthattheirprofitshaveincreasedascomparedtosame
periodlastyear.
ď§ Two wheeler sentiment over the last quarter has improved slightly
regarding their dealership profits visâaâvis same period previous year.
51% of commercial vehicle dealers feel that their profits are more than
the same period previous quarter, as compared to only 48% who were of
thesameopinionintheprevioussurvey.
ď§ Commercial vehicle dealers feel that their profits have gone down visâaâ
vissameperiodlast year.Majority(56%)ofthesurveyeddealersfeelthat
their profits are definitely lower as compared to same period previous
year.
12%
27%
32%
29%
16%
26%
27%
31%
sewellsgroup.comPage 14
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
15%
27%
25%
33%
25%
26%
30%
19%
0%
19%
25%
56%
16. PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
6
PERFORMANCE
QUARTER
VIS-Ă-VIS
PREVIOUS
DEALERSHIP
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
21%
36%
30%
13%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
ď§ As compared to 63% of the dealers in the previous survey, 53% of the
surveyeddealersfeelthattheirsalesfigureshavegoneupinthisquarter.
ď§ Passenger car dealers who had reported some improvement in the sales
figures at the end of JulâSep quarter, have again reported lower sales
figuresattheend of OctâDec2014quarter.58%feelthatitishigheratthe
endofOctâDec2014thanattheendofJulâSep2014.
ď§ 53% of two wheeler dealers (down from 76%) feel that their revenue at
theendofQ4of2014ishigherthanthatattheendofQ3of2014.
ď§ Commercial vehicle dealers who showed an improving sales condition
over the last six months, have again reported a reduction in sales. 75% of
these dealers feel that their sales at the end of OctâDec 2014 quarter is
lowerthanthatattheendofJulâSep2014quarter.
17%
28%
40%
15%
19%
44%
28%
9%
17%
36%
27%
20%
sewellsgroup.comPage 15
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
16%
42%
26%
17%
25%
28%
28%
19%
0%
25%
25%
50%
17. PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
sewellsgroup.comPage 16
6
PERFORMANCE
QUARTER
VIS-Ă-VIS
PREVIOUS
DEALERSHIP
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
6%
27%
37%
30%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
18%
46%
32%
4%
ď§ Passenger car dealer seem to have corrected their inventory levels
slightly, with 61% of dealers who feel that their inventory levels have
goneupattheendofOctâDec2014quarterascomparedtothe68%with
similaropinionattheendofJulâSep2014quarter.
ď§ 89%ofthetwowheelerdealersfeelthattheirinventory levelsarehigher
than that in the end of previous quarter, as compared to 80% who
expressedasimilarsentimentintheprevioussurvey.
ď§ Inventory levels of 44% of the surveyed commercial vehicle dealers have
goneupascomparedtothatattheendofJulâSep2014quarter.
28%
41%
27%
4%
24%
44%
27%
6%
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
16%
45%
34%
6%
47%
42%
9%
2% 0%
44%
38%
19%
18. PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
6
PERFORMANCE
QUARTER
VIS-Ă-VIS
PREVIOUS
DEALERSHIP
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
36%
31%
22%
11%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
8%
32%
30%
30%
ď§ Overall46%ofdealersreportedhigherprofitsattheendofOctâDec2014
quarterascomparedto49%attheendofJulâSep2014quarter.
ď§ Profits of 50% of the surveyed passenger car dealers at the end of Octâ
Dec 2014 quarter have gone up as compared to the that in the end of
previousquarter.
ď§ Profits of both two wheeler and commercial vehicle dealers surveyed
decreased in this quarter as compared to previous quarter. However, the
commercial vehicle dealers seem to be in worst condition, where 87% of
these dealers have expressed decrease in profit at the end of OctâDec
2014quarter.
14%
35%
28%
23%
15%
31%
30%
25%
sewellsgroup.comPage 17
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
13%
37%
28%
22% 23%
25%32%
21%
0%
13%
31%56%
19. PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
7
DEALERSHIP
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
OVER NEXT SIX
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
7%
31%
46%
16%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
21%
54%
19%
6%
ď§ Though maximum dealers anticipate higher sales in the next six months,
this number is slightly lesser than the sentiment expressed in the
previoussurveyattheendlastquarter.Thiscanbeattributedtothedipin
thesentimentofdealersacrossallthreesegments.
ď§ 60% of passenger car dealers and 64% of two wheeler dealers at the end
of the OctâDec quarter anticipate higher sales in the next six months as
compared to the 72% and 79% at the end of previous quarter
respectively.
ď§ Commercial vehicle dealers who were anticipating higher sales in the
Octâ14 to Marâ15 period, are not optimistic at the end of the OctâDec
quarter. Majority of these dealers expect their sales figures to reduce in
thenextsixmonths.
26%
48%
23%
3%
22%
38%
33%
8%
sewellsgroup.comPage 18
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
21%
39%
32%
8%
26%
38%
28%
8% 6%
38%
50%
6%
20. 7
DEALERSHIP
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
OVER NEXT SIX
PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
3%
25%
55%
17%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
19%
53%
26%
2%
ď§ Overall 71% of the dealers surveyed expect their inventory levels to be
higher in the next six months, as compared to 70% of the surveyed dealer
inthelastsurvey.
ď§ There has been no change in the sentiment of the passenger car dealers
regarding the inventory levels over the next six months. 69% of these
dealersexpecttheirinventorylevelstoincreaseinthenextsixmonths.
ď§ As compared the previous quarter, higher number of dealers expect the
inventory levels to be higher in the coming months (up from 78% at the
endofJulâSep2014quarterto81%attheendofOctâDec2014quarter).
ď§ Commercial dealer sentiments about increase inventory in the next six
months has also not changed much (moved to 56% from 58% at the end
ofJulâSep2014quarter.
26%
44%
28%
2%
22%
49%
25%
3%
sewellsgroup.comPage 19
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
21%
48%
28%
3%
0%
56%31%
13%
30%
51%
17%
2%
21. PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
7
DEALERSHIP
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
OVER NEXT SIX
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
20%
30%
38%
12%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
13%
46%
25%
16%
ď§ Overall, as compared to the previous quarter, lesser number of dealers
expecttheirprofitstobehigherinthenextsixmonths(downfrom57%at
the end of JulâSep 2014 quarter to 54% at the end of OctâDec 2014
quarter.)
ď§ 46% of the passenger car dealers expect their profits to be higher in the
first six months of 2015 as compared to 59% of the dealers surveyed in
the previous quarter who were of the same opinion regarding Octâ14 to
Marâ15period.
ď§ 55% of the two wheeler dealers expect their profits to be higher in the
nextsixmonths.
ď§ Commercial vehicle dealers who anticipated some improvement last
quarter about their profits in Octâ14 to Marâ15 period, have again
anticipatedlesserprofitsinthenextsixmonths.
17%
40%
32%
11%
19%
35%
31%
15%
sewellsgroup.comPage 20
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
19%
37%
29%
15%
23%
32%
32%
13%
0%
38%
38%
25%
22. PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
sewellsgroup.comPage 21
8
MANPOWER
MONTHS
EXPECTED
STRENGTH
OVER NEXT SIX
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
6%
26%
47%
21%
OVERALL
END OF Q1â2014
END OF Q2â2014
END OF Q3â2014
END OF Q4â2014
19%
54%
25%
2%
ď§ Overall 81% of dealers anticipate an increase in their manpower strength
inthenextsixmonths.
ď§ Passenger car dealers seem to be the most bullish of all the three
categories. 82% of these dealers expect their manpower strength to be
higherascomparedto66%attheendofJulâSep2014quarter.
ď§ Two wheeler dealers who were the most optimistic about their
dealership manpower strength in the Octâ14 to Marâ15 period continue
to remain so 89% of the surveyed twoâwheeler dealers expect their
manpowerstrengthtobehigherinthenextsixmonths.
ď§ 44% of the surveyed commercial vehicle dealers anticipate an increase in
theirmanpowerstrengthinthenextsixmonths.
23%
48%
27%
2%
22%
59%
17%
2%
25%
57%
15%
3%
21%
68%
11%
0%
6%
38%
50%
6%
23. sewellsgroup.comPage 22
SSEWELLS
GROUP
ABOUT
Sewells Group is a global consulting and outsourcing firm which specializes
in the automotive retail industry. Our very reason for being in the business
is to improve the performance of individuals and organizations in the
automotive retail industry. We operate across the AsiaâPacific, Africa and
MiddleEastregions.
Our inâdepth subject matter expertise in this area and our deep
engagementswithmanyleadingautomotivebrandsmakeusaleaderinour
business. Our Integrated Dealer Performance Management Model has
delivered exceptional success to leading OEMs across the world. Through
our proven business management model, demonstrated competence
solutionsandprocessefficacyinitiatives,wecontributemeaningfullytoour
clientsâbusinesses.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.sewellsgroup.com
SewellsGroupContacts:
JAYESHJAGASIA
ManagingPartner&CEOâSewellsGroupIndia
E:jjagasia@sewellsgroup.com
T: +912267354915,M: +919819765234
POOJAPEWEKAR
GroupMarketingManagerâSewellsGroup
E:ppewekar@sewellsgroup.com
T: +912267354914
24. sewellsgroup.comPage 23
DISCLAIMER
ď§ The contents of this report represent the opinion of survey respondents, and not that of Sewells Group, Sewells Group India, any of their subsidiary companies, or employees
thereof.
ď§ The contents of this report and analysis of responses received in response to the quarterly Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) survey are to be viewed as broad trends
beingobserved,andnotasdefinitecommentaryonthestateofeconomy,stateofbusinessorpolicyframeworkofanyautomotivemanufacturerand/orfranchisedautomotive
dealergroup.
ď§ Thecontentsofthisreportshouldnotbeviewedascommentary ontheprospectsofaparticularmanufacturerorbrandasitisonlyintendedtosummarizetheperceptionsand
opinionsofrespondents.
ď§ The contents of the report and analysis of responses should not be viewed in isolation, but in conjunction with the number of responses considered in the computation of the
indexandsubsequentanalysis.
ď§ ADCImethodologyandthissurveymaybelimitedbysignificanceofsamplesizeorotherstatisticalparameters.Weadvisereaderdiscretiononmatterssuchasthese.
ď§ Sewells Group does not take the responsibility of or does not indemnify any user of the study against the impact of the decisions made taking into accounts the findings of this
study.
25. Š 2015 Sewells Group
adciâindia@sewellsgroup.com
ASIA PACIFIC â AFRICA â MIDDLE EAST
sewellsgroup.com