Sewells Group released the results of their Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) survey for India for the end of April-June 2015 quarter. The overall ADCI indicates a sharp swing from -3 at the end of Q1 2015 to +7 at the end of Q2 2015 indicating a significant shift in optimistic sentiment of automotive dealers across the country.
2. sewellsgroup.comPage 1
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
G
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
SEWELLS GROUP
INDEX
Globally, confidence indices are viewed as reliable precursors to business
performance. Such indices aim to capture and quantify the sentiment of
various industry stakeholders – be it CXOs, suppliers, vendors or distribution
partners who usually are in the middle of the action. People within the
industry, typically use these indices to get a sense of stakeholder sentiment
and optimize their actions in line with the sentiment. Market analysts, on the
other hand, interpret theses indices as a ‘lead indicators’ of the performance
of a particular industry or sector. An accurate, representative index may
demonstratesahighlevelofcorrelationwithactualbusinessperformance.
The automotive industry in India has been a sunrise sector contributing a
significant share to country’s GDP. A healthy and growing domestic market, an
active and constructive involvement from the government, growth of
domestic auto manufacturers to become true global players and presence of
multiple global brands in the country have made sure that this industry has
comeofitsage. Witheverythingelsebeingexecutedataglobalscaleandwith
global vision, we believe that the time has come for Indian auto industry to
haveadealerconfidenceindex.
The important role played by auto dealers in this industry is already known.
With their unique position at the market place, auto dealers are usually in
touch with ground realities. And therefore such an indicator should be able
position itself as useful signalling device for various stakeholders within the
automotiveindustryeco-system.
3. S
sewellsgroup.comPage 2
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is a measure of
dealer sentiment about their business over next six months from the time it
isbeingcaptured.Itwillbepublishedonaquarterlybasis.
Within the automotive industry, dealers enjoy a unique position close to the
‘actionontheground’.Theyareinconstanttouchwithprospects,customers,
factory staff, competition dealers, financiers and other market
intermediaries. Consequently, each dealer gets exposed to a plethora of
information that in turn shapes his / her sentiment about the future of
markets and businesses. The Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index (ADCI) is an attempt to capture and quantify this well informed
sentiment of the auto dealers from across the length and breadth of the
country, representing multiple brands and product categories. We aim to be
able to represent this collective sentiment in the form of an index, whose
movement over time will reliably predict the direction of the wholesale and
theretailsaleswithintheindustry.
We believe publication of such an index will allow industry stakeholders to
have meaningful conversations in time, which in turn will help them put
togetherbetterstrategiestoperformatthemarketplace.
4. sewellsgroup.comPage 3
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
T
The Sewells Group ADCI is designed to be a quarterly index that will be
computed on the basis of responses received to a structured questionnaire
from the automotive dealer fraternity in Indian market. The questionnaire
attempts to capture their sentiment about economy in general and their
businessinparticularonasixmonthforwardhorizon.
Sewells Group proposes to track the trend of the index which will offer an
insight into the future direction of the market. We believe that it is the
movement of the index which will offer greater insights than the absolute
valueoftheindexinaparticularquarter.
In this sixth edition of the ADCI, we attempt to capture the sentiment of the
dealer fraternity at the end of Apr-Jun quarter of 2015. The findings of this
survey are compared with the findings of the previous three editions to map
the trend. We propose to repeat the survey at the end of each following
quarter.
For this edition, a questionnaire was distributed electronically (by email) to
thedealerfraternityinIndia.Atotalof184responsesreceived,fromdealers,
representing 29 brands were used to compute the index. Every effort has
been made to ensure that the index is statistically meaningful and
representative of dealer sentiment. However, we advise reader discretion
while considering the statistical significance. At this stage, ADCI is designed
onlyfor“exploratory”and“indicative”purposes.
ThesentimentofthedealerfraternityattheendofApr-Junquarterindicates
that overall, dealers carry an optimistic sentiment with a six-month time
horizon. While the sentiment of commercial vehicle dealers continues to
remain firmly pessimistic, passenger car and two-wheeler dealers have
indicated a sharp swing in their optimism. However, positive movement of
the index for all the three segments is certainly encouraging for the industry.
It will be interesting to observe if the positive sentiment is sustained over the
nextfewmonthsasweapproachthefestiveseason.
5. sewellsgroup.comPage 4
About Sewells Group
Automotive Dealer Confidence
Index
ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents
PASSENGER CARS TWO-WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS
43
7218
16
76
PASSENGER CARS PASSENGER CARSTWO-WHEELERS TWO-WHEELERSCOMMERCIAL VEHICLES COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
PASSENGER CARS TWO-WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES OVERALL
55%
42%
4% BEFORE 1975
1975 - 1989
1990 - 2004
AFTER 2005
AGEOFDEALERSHIPSLOCATIONOFRESPONDENTS
BRANDSREPRESENTED
29 BRANDS133 CITIES
33%
16%
50%
37%
26%
22%
42%
45%
10%
*Sub-sample size low. Reader discretion advised while considering the statistical significance.
0% 3%
42%
48%
10%
*
19
7788 184
1%
5%
6. sewellsgroup.comPage 5
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
END OF JAN-MAR 15 QUARTER
INDIA
INDEX
SEWELLS GROUP
The ADCI is designed to vary between -100 and +100, where an index score of -
100 represents the most pessimistic outlook, and +100 indicates the most
optimistic outlook. The index is based on how dealers see the overall market
andtheirbusinessesperforminginnextsixmonths
The high level findings of the survey at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter are
givenbelow:
§ The overall ADCI stood at +7 indicating a mildly optimistic sentiment
amongstthesurveyeddealers.
§ ThepassengercarADCIstandsat+14,representingamildpositiveoutlook
amongstdealers.
§ The two wheeler ADCI stands at +9, indicating a slight positive sentiment
ofthetwowheelerdealerssurveyed.
§ The commercial vehicle dealers reflects a moderately pessimistic
sentimentwithanADCIof-27.
0-80-100 -40-60 -20 +80 +100+40 +60+20
PESSIMISTIC NEUTRALMODERATELY PESSIMISTIC MODERATELY OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC
OVERALL
PASSENGER
CARS
7
COMMERCIAL
VEHICLES -27
14
TWO-WHEELERS9
7. sewellsgroup.comPage 6
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
END OF JAN-MAR 15 QUARTER
INDEX-TREND
SEWELLS GROUP
§ Thepassengercarindexhasshownasharpincreasefrom-2attheendofJan-
Mar2015quarterto+14attheendofApril-May2015quarter.
§ After declining consecutively for two quarter, the two wheeler index has
jumped to +9 at the end of Q2 2015 from 0 at the end of Q1 2015, indicating a
slightpositiveshiftinthesentimentofthetwowheelerdealers.
§ The commercial vehicle index has jumped from -44 at the end of Jan-Mar
2015 quarter to -27 at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter indicating a positive
shiftintheconfidenceofthecommercialvehicleindex.
§ The overall ADCI has increased from -3 at the end of end of Jan-Mar 2015
quarter to +7 indicating and upward movement in the sentiment of the
surveyeddealers.
0
+80
+100
+40
+60
+20
-80
-100
-40
-60
-20
MODERATELY
PESSIMISTIC
MODERATELY
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTICNEUTRALOPTIMISTIC
End of Q2-2015End of Q1-2015End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014
End of Q2-2015
+14
+7
+9
-27
End of Q3-2014
+8
+14
+35
-3
End of Q4-2014
+9
+7
+10
-19
SEGMENT
PASSENGER CARS
OVERALL
TWO-WHEELERS
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
OVERALL
PASSENGER
CARS
TWO-
WHEELERS
COMMERCIAL
VEHICLES
End of Q1-2015
-2
-3
0
-44
8. sewellsgroup.com
Future view of manpower
strength of the business
Expected performance of the
market as well as the
dealership over the next six
months
Expected levels of sales,
inventory and profits over the
next six months
View on the current situation
of sales, inventory and profits
vis-à-vis same period last year
Impact of the current
economic scenario on the
market, as well as the
dealership business
View on the current situation
of sales, inventory and profits
vis-à-vis previous quarter
06
08
02
04
Page 7
07
05
03
01
Impact of the Current
Economic Scenario on the
Market
Expected Market
Performance Over Next Six
Months
Dealership Performance vis-
a-vis Same Period Previous
Year
Expected Dealership
Performance Over Next Six
Months
Impact of the Current
Economic Scenario on the
Dealership
Expected Dealership
Performance Over Next Six
Months
Dealership Performance vis-
a-vis Previous Quarter
Expected Manpower
Strength Over Next Six
Months
page 8 page 9
page 10 page 11
page 12 page 15
page 18 page 21
ANALYSIS OF SURVEY FINDINGS
The ADCI survey delves into the following areas:
AUTOMOTIVE
DEALER
CONFIDENCE
INDEX
SEWELLS GROUP
§ The following pages carry details of responses received during the
third edition of the survey for questions covering the above areas.
Sewells Group intends to administer the ADCI survey every quarter,
andintendstotrackthemovementofquestion-leveldistributionon
aquarterlybasis.
§ To map the trend, the findings of this survey are compared with the
findings of the previous three editions which captured the
sentimentsofthedealerfraternityinthelast threequarters.
§ This section of analysis presents the distribution of responses
across multiple questions that were asked in the survey and
comparedwiththefindingsoftheprevioussurveys.
9. 0%
16%
37%
47%
2%
42%
47%
9%3%
44%
38%
15%
§ About 42% of the dealers feel that the current economic scenario is
encouragingforthedealershipbusinessattheendofApr-Jun2015quarter.
§ The opinion of passenger car dealers and of the two wheeler dealers has not
changed much since the previous survey. 47% of the surveyed passenger car
dealers and 44% of the surveyed two wheeler dealers feel that the current
economicscenarioisfavorableforthemarket.
§ Very few commercial vehicle dealers feel that the current economic scenario
is encouraging for the market. Only 16% of the surveyed commercial vehicle
dealersfeelthatthecurrenteconomicscenarioispositive.
sewellsgroup.com
TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
1
CURRENT
ECONOMIC
SCENARIO
IMPACT OF THE
ON THE MARKET
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
Page 8
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
4%
40%
43%
13%
5%
55%
32%
8%
3%
43%
42%
12%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
2%
40%
42%
16%
PASSENGER CARS
10. 0%
16%
47%
37%
8%
35%
50%
7%6%
43%
37%
14%
2§ Overall, only 43% of the surveyed dealers indicate a positive sentiment of the
effectofthecurrenteconomicscenarioonthedealershipbusiness.
§ About 49% of passenger car dealers believe that economic scenario has a
positive impact on their dealership (down from 52% at the end of Jan-Mar
2015quarter).
§ Ascomparedto48%ofthetwowheelerdealerswhowereoftheopinionthat
the current economic scenario has a positive impact on the dealership
business, only 43% are of the same opinion at the end of Jan-Mar 2015
quarter.
§ Only 16% of the surveyed dealers feel that the economic scenario has a
positiveimpactonthedealershipbusiness.
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
sewellsgroup.comPage 9
CURRENT
ECONOMIC
SCENARIOON THE DEALERSHIP
IMPACT OF THE
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
5%
43%
39%
13%
6%
45%
37%
12%
4%
44%
39%
13%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
7%
36%
44%
13%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
11. 14%
61%
24%
1%
9%
64%
25%
2% 0%
48%
47%
5%
3MARKET
OVER NEXT SIX
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
sewellsgroup.comPage 10
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
§ Overall, 71% of the surveyed dealers anticipate a better market performance
inthenextsixmonths(upfrom50%attheendofJan-Mar2015quarter).
§ 75% of the passenger car dealers expect an improved market performance
overthenextsixmonths(upfrom50%attheendofJan-Mar2015quarter).
§ Similar sentiment is seen amongst the surveyed two wheeler dealers, where
73% (up from 53%) of these dealers foresee a better market performance in
thenextsixmonths.
§ Commercial vehicle dealers at the end of Q2 2015 are more optimistic as
compared to the previous quarter about the market performance in the next
sixmonths(upfrom 22%to48%).
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
6%
44%
42%
8%
13%
58%
26%
3%
11%
55%
27%
7%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
27%
10%
61%
2%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
12. 16%
66%
13%
5% 9%
64%
25%
2% 0%
63%
26%
11%
4
DEALERSHIP
OVER NEXT SIX
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
§ Overall, the dealers are more optimistic about their dealership performance
than they were in the previous quarter (up from 56% to 76% at the end of
Apr-May2015).
§ Passenger car dealers have shown an increase in optimism about the
dealership performance in the next six months. (up from 55% at the end of
Q12015to82%attheendofQ22015).
§ Two wheeler dealers are also positive about their performance in the next six
months with 73% expecting to perform better as against, the 58% who were
ofthesameopinionlastquarter.
§ Commercial vehicle dealers have shown a marked improvement in their
sentiment. 63% of these dealers feel that their dealership performance is
going to be better in the next six months (up from 33% at the end of Jan-Mar
2015quarter).
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME
sewellsgroup.comPage 11
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
6%
50%
37%
7%
14%
58%
23%
5%
12%
58%
23%
7%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
20%
11%
65%
4%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
13. 21%
23%
40%
16% 7%
43%41%
9% 11%
21%
47%
21%
sewellsgroup.comPage 12
5
PERFORMANCE
YEAR
DEALERSHIP
VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD
PREVIOUS
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ 54% of the surveyed dealers feel that their sales at the end of Apr-Jun 2015
hasdecreasedascomparedtothesameperiodpreviousyear.
§ 44% of passenger car dealers feel that their sales have reduced as compared
tothesameperiodpreviousquarter.
§ Half of the two wheeler dealers surveyed feel that their sales as compared to
thesameperiodpreviousyearhavegoneup.
§ About 63% of the commercial vehicle dealers surveyed feel that their sales as
compared to the same period previous year has gone up (up from 33% at the
endofJan-Feb2015).
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
15%
34%
34%
17%
17%
35%
34%
14%
18%
31%
26%
25%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
41%
13%
33%
13%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
14. 23%
42%
31%
4%
28%
46%
23%
3% 16%
37%
31%
16%
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
5
PERFORMANCE
YEAR
DEALERSHIP
VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD
PREVIOUS
§ According to the surveyed dealers, their inventory levels vis-à-vis previous
year have gone up as compared to the Jan-Mar 2015 quarter. (68% at the end
ofApr-Jun2015quarterasagainst28%attheendofJan-Mar2015quarter).
§ Inventory levels vis-à-vis same period previous year according to the
surveyed two wheeler dealers and commercial vehicle dealers have gone up.
65% of two wheeler dealers and 53% of commercial vehicle dealers feel that
their inventory levels are higher at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter as
comparedtoApr-June2014quarter.
§ 74% of the passenger car dealers feel that their inventory levels vis-à-vis
sameperiodpreviousyearhavegoneup(upfrom53%whowereofthesame
opinionattheendofJan-Mar2015quarter).
sewellsgroup.comPage 13
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
9%
19%
38%
34%
30%
39%
26%
5%
25%
38%
28%
9%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
27%
25%
43%
5%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
15. 16%
23%
38%
23%
5%
39%
36%
20%
5%
10%
32%
53%
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
5
PERFORMANCE
YEAR
DEALERSHIP
VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD
PREVIOUS
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ Overall, the opinion about profits vis-à-vis same period previous year hasn't
changed much over the last one quarter. 38% of dealers surveyed feel that
their profits are higher as compared to the previous year (down from 40% at
theendofJan-Mar2015quarter).
§ The above sentiments are reflected in passenger car dealers opinion. Only
39% of passenger car dealers feel that their profits are higher than that in the
sameperiodpreviousyear.).
§ 44% of two wheeler dealers feel that their profits are higher as compared to
previousyear(upfrom39%asexpressedattheendofJan-Mar205quarter
§ Commercial vehicle dealer sentiment is slightly better as compared to the
previousquarter.15%ofcommercialvehicledealersfeelthattheirprofitsare
more than the same period previous quarter, as compared to only 11% who
wereofthesameopinionintheprevioussurvey.
sewellsgroup.comPage 14
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
13%
27%
31%
29%
12%
27%
32%
29%
16%
26%
27%
31%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
37%
9%
29%
25%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
16. 16%
24%
40%
20%
8%
49%
32%
11% 16%
21%
31%
32%
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
6
PERFORMANCE
QUARTER
VIS-À-VIS
PREVIOUS
DEALERSHIP
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ Only 48% of the surveyed dealers feel that their sales are higher as compared
topreviousquarter.(upfrom42%attheendofJan-Mar2015quarter).
§ Majorityofthedealers(58%)feelthattheirsalesintheJan-Mar2015quarter
werelowerthanOct-Dec2014quarter.
§ More and more number of passenger car dealers are feeling a dip in their
sales since Q1 2015. At the end of Apr-Jun 2015 60% of the surveyed
passenger car dealers feel that their sales are lower as compared to previous
quarter(upfrom57%whowereofthesameopinionattheendofQ12015).
§ The sentiment amongst the two wheeler dealers and the commercial vehicle
dealers about sales at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter is much better as
compared to that at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter. (up from 45% to 57%
for two wheeler dealers and up from 0% to 37% for the commercial vehicle
dealers).
sewellsgroup.comPage 15
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
15%
27%
38%
20%
19%
44%
28%
9%
17%
36%
27%
20%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
35%
12%
36%
17%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
17. 26%
29%
39%
18%
19%
50%
22%
9%
21%
32%
26%
21%
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
sewellsgroup.comPage 16
6
PERFORMANCE
QUARTER
VIS-À-VIS
PREVIOUS
DEALERSHIP
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ Dealers have expressed some inventory correction at the end of Apr-Jun
2015. 61% of the surveyed dealers feel that their inventory levels are higher
ascomparedtothepreviousquarter.
§ Both two wheeler dealers and commercial vehicle dealers have reported
some inventory correction in Apr-Jun 2015 quarter as compared to the end
of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter (down from 77% to 69% for two wheeler dealers
anddownfrom56%to53%forthecommercialvehicledealers).
§ 55% of passenger car dealers surveyed feel that their inventory levels are
higher as compared to previous quarter. This figure is higher than that at the
end of Q1 2015, where 50% of the two wheeler dealers were of the same
opinion.
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
26%
41%
23%
10%
28%
41%
27%
4%
23%
44%
27%
6%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
30%
22%
39%
9%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
18. 14%
21%
35%
30%
5%
42%
39%
14% 16%
10%
32%
42%
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
6
PERFORMANCE
QUARTER
VIS-À-VIS
PREVIOUS
DEALERSHIP
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ Overall, the sentiment amongst the dealers at the end of Apr-Jun 2015
quarter regarding their profits is not positive and similar to that at the end of
Jan-Mar2015quarter.
§ Asimilarsentimentisexpressedacrossallthethreesegmentsindividually.
§ Only 47% of two wheeler dealers (up from 42%) feel that their profits are
higherascomparedtopreviousquarter.
§ At the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter, about 65% of passenger car dealers (up
from 42%) and 74% of commercial vehicle dealers (down from 100%) feel
thattheirprofitshavenotbeenhigherthanthatinthepreviousquarter.
sewellsgroup.comPage 17
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
13%
27%
34%
26%
14%
35%
28%
23%
15%
31%
29%
25%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
36%
10%
30%
24%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
19. 7
DEALERSHIP
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
OVER NEXT SIX
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ An significant increase in the sentiment about expected sales in the next six
months of dealers as compared to that at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter is
seeninthissurvey(upfrom58%to79%).
§ Thissentimentisexpressedacrossallthethreesegments.
§ 78%ofthetwowheelerdealers,86%ofthepassengercardealersand58%of
the commercial vehicle dealers anticipate an increase in sales by December
2015 (up from 58%, 63% and 33% respectively as expressed at the end of
previousquarter).
30%
56%
10%
4%
22%
56%
20%
2% 5%
53%
31%
11%
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
sewellsgroup.comPage 18
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
17%
41%
30%
12%
26%
48%
23%
3%
22%
38%
32%
8%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
17%
23%
56%
4%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
20. 32%
51%
16%
1%
28%
47%
20%
5% 11%
42%
42%
5%
7
DEALERSHIP
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
OVER NEXT SIX
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ Overall,thedealersexpecttheinventoriestocontinuetoriseoverthenextsix
months, with 76% dealers expecting their inventory levels to be higher in the
next six months, as compared to 70% dealers who were of similar opinion at
theendofthepreviousquarter.
§ 83% of the passenger car dealers expect their inventory levels to rise in the
next six months (up from 62% as expressed in the survey at the end of
previousquarter).
§ Two wheeler dealers anticipate a slight correction in inventory ; 75%
expecting to carry higher inventories in the next six months as compared to
76%ofsimilaropinionintheprevioussurvey.
§ Commercial dealer sentiments about increase inventory in the next six
months has changed slightly (moved to 53% from 44% at the end of Jan-Mar
2015quarter).
sewellsgroup.comPage 19
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
26%
44%
22%
8%
26%
44%
28%
2%
22%
49%
26%
3%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
21%
28%
48%
3%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
21. 22%
51%
18%
9%
21%
45%
25%
9% 5%
37%
37%
21%
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
7
DEALERSHIP
MONTHS
EXPECTED
PERFORMANCE
OVER NEXT SIX
SALES INVENTORY PROFITS
§ The overall sentiment about anticipated profits in the next six months is
improved. 67% of the surveyed dealers feel that their business is going to be
profitableinthenextsixmonths.
§ Thisincreaseinpositivesentimentisseenacrossallthethreesegments.
§ 73% of passenger car dealers expect higher profits in the next six months as
comparedto60%dealerswhowereJan-Mar2015quarter.
§ Twowheelerdealerswhowerepessimisticattheendofthepreviousquarter
are hopeful of a profitable business in the next six months (up from 47% at
theendofQ12015to66%attheendofQ22015).
§ Sentiment of the commercial vehicle dealers seems to be improving slightly
though majority of these dealers feel that their profits are going to be lower
inthenextsixmonths.AttheendofQ22015,58%ofthesedealersanticipate
lower profits in the next six months as against 67% who were of the same
opinionattheendofQ12015.
sewellsgroup.comPage 20
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
14%
36%
30%
20%
17%
40%
32%
11%
19%
35%
31%
15%
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
23%
20%
47%
10%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
22. 26%
53%
20%
1%
17%
55%
26%
2% 5%
47%37%
11%
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
sewellsgroup.comPage 21
8
MANPOWER
MONTHS
EXPECTED
STRENGTH
OVER NEXT SIX
DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER
§ 73% of the surveyed dealers anticipate increase in their manpower strength
in the next six months as against 69% who were of the same opinion at the
endofthepreviousquarter.
§ All the three segments anticipate an increase in the manpower strength in
the next six months. 72% of two wheeler dealers, 79% passenger car dealers
and 52% commercial vehicle dealers anticipate a rise in their manpower
strength(upfrom68%,74%and33%asexpressedinthesurveyconductedat
theendofpreviousquarter).
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
%OFRESPONDENTS
OVERALL
END OF Q2-2015
END OF Q1-2015
END OF Q3-2014
END OF Q4-2014
21%
48%
27%
4%
23%
48%
27%
2%
22%
59%
17%
2%
24%
20%
53%
3%
TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS
23. sewellsgroup.comPage 22
SSEWELLS
GROUP
ABOUT
Sewells Group is a global consulting and outsourcing firm which specializes
in the automotive retail industry. Our very reason for being in the business
is to improve the performance of individuals and organizations in the
automotive retail industry. We operate across the Asia-Pacific, Africa and
MiddleEastregions.
Our in-depth subject matter expertise in this area and our deep
engagementswithmanyleadingautomotivebrandsmakeusaleaderinour
business. Our Integrated Dealer Performance Management Model has
delivered exceptional success to leading OEMs across the world. Through
our proven business management model, demonstrated competence
solutionsandprocessefficacyinitiatives,wecontributemeaningfullytoour
clients’businesses.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.sewellsgroup.com
SewellsGroupContacts:
JAYESHJAGASIA
ManagingPartner&CEO-SewellsGroupIndia
E:jjagasia@sewellsgroup.com
T: +912267354915,M: +919819765234
POOJAPEWEKAR
GroupMarketingManager-SewellsGroup
E:ppewekar@sewellsgroup.com
T: +912267354914
24. sewellsgroup.comPage 23
DISCLAIMER
§ The contents of this report represent the opinion of survey respondents, and not that of Sewells Group, Sewells Group India, any of their subsidiary companies, or employees
thereof.
§ The contents of this report and analysis of responses received in response to the quarterly Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) survey are to be viewed as broad trends
beingobserved,andnotasdefinitecommentaryonthestateofeconomy,stateofbusinessorpolicyframeworkofanyautomotivemanufacturerand/orfranchisedautomotive
dealergroup.
§ Thecontentsofthisreportshouldnotbeviewedascommentary ontheprospectsofaparticularmanufacturerorbrandasitisonlyintendedtosummarizetheperceptionsand
opinionsofrespondents.
§ The contents of the report and analysis of responses should not be viewed in isolation, but in conjunction with the number of responses considered in the computation of the
indexandsubsequentanalysis.
§ ADCImethodologyandthissurveymaybelimitedbysignificanceofsamplesizeorotherstatisticalparameters.Weadvisereaderdiscretiononmatterssuchasthese.
§ Sewells Group does not take the responsibility of or does not indemnify any user of the study against the impact of the decisions made taking into accounts the findings of this
study.