Presentation by Seth Kaplan of Conservation Law Foundation on transitions in the energy market and world to Annual Meeting of the members of organization that purchases energy for Massachusetts non-profits (like hospitals and universities)

1. “It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be....” Isaac Asimov Seth Kaplan Vice President for Policy and Climate Advocacy Conservation Law Foundation Power Options Annual Meeting June 8, 2011 1

2. Context and key facts 2 Global Warming is a fundamental threat – and MA is taking action (as we should) Our aging nuke fleet is going away, only question is how quickly. No one is building any new nukes, especially in New England – cost is top reason, of many Natural Gas is, and will be for quite a while, the dominant and price setting fuel Rise of Demand Resources (Efficiency and Demand Response) and Distributed Gen (esp. CHP) offers customers unprecedented opportunities to be masters of own fate New markets (energy sales by efficiency, “frequency regulation” continue to appear Wind offers price stability – as with any hedge key question is whether you are willing to pay the risk premium, it is above market now . . . but . . . Pulverized Coal (the kind of coal plants we have) is doomed – twin pincers of environmental mandate and current gas prices are converging

3. Planning for a very different future . . . Full of opportunity for smart customers . . . 3 A sketch of the exterior of Edison’s Pearl Street station. Courtesy: Photographic Services of the Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. http://www.ieeeghn.org/wiki/index.php/Pearl_Street_Station Illustration taken from slide created by Alan Friefeld of Viridity Energy, who seems to have taken it from iTeres

4. To understate: hard to plan withmany forces pressing for change 4 Emissions Reduction – Public Health Water Use/Discharge Climate: electricity is the “hinge” sector Diversification /Reliability Japan shows wind can help keep the lights on Every place has indigenous renewable & demand resources (unlike fossil fuels) Self sufficiency, independence, it’s not just about rates – no one really pays a rate Zero fuel cost resources – price stability Jobs, attract employers, jobs, local property taxes, jobs and of course jobs Popularity matters (or should) in a democracy

5. A Few Unexpected Realities and lessons to be learned 5 EPA regulations of power plants is good for our economy (and AIM agrees) Coal fired generation has been poisoning and killing people with impunity or cost for generations, ending that implicit subsidy will raise price of power elsewhere – leveling the economic playing field is good for economy of places like Mass and New England Increased presence of federally regulated entities in retail market can help customers Regional markets and system planning and reliability processes (“Non-Transmission Alternatives”) in some cases have and in other cases offer new revenue streams for energy resources that are sited in customer facilities (like energy efficiency and demand response) that directly and tangibly benefits those customers – this is very different from past conventional wisdom of wanting decisions and control to rest more in state hands The only totally untenable course is inaction – the choice is whether to be a diner or whether to be the entrée