This document discusses five technological revolutions throughout history and predicts a sixth revolution driven by emerging technologies. It outlines five forces that will drive the next techno-economic revolution: 1) new technologies like biotech, nanotech and bioelectronics, 2) financial innovations in recent decades that enabled globalization, 3) trends in the US economy like declining gross capital formation, 4) growth of US debt markets in commercial paper and corporate bonds, 5) models that predict economic cycles driven by technological innovation.

1. Seeking The Future
Five forces that will drive the next
Techno-Economic Revolution
1 May 2012
1
Larry Ryan
Chief Technologist, Financial Services Industry
HP Enterprise Services
©2011 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
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The information contained herein is subject to change without notice
The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

2. KONDRATIEFF CYCLES TO
TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGMS
Nickolai Kondratieff Joseph Schumpeter
(1892-1938) (1883-1950)
Inflection
INNOVATION Point
RECOVERY MATURITY NEXT
& GROWTH
Euphoria
Anxiety MATURITY
Thrill
Technology Diffusion
SYNERGY
Denial
Optimism Fear
FRENZY Desperation Optimism
Excitement
Panic Relief
ERUPTION
Hope
Despondency Time
Big Bang Crash Recovery and Transition
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3. FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS
INSTALLATION PERIOD TURNIN DEPLOYMENT PERIOD
G POINT
Bubble prosperity Collapse & “Golden Prosperity Maturity
Recessions Age”
FIRST: •The “Industrial Revolution” (machines, factories, and canals)
From 177 •Britain
SECOND: •Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways
From 1829 •Britain and spreading to the Continent and USA
THIRD: •Age of Steel, Electricity, and Heavy Engineering
From 1875 •USA and Germany overtaking Britain
FOURTH: •Age of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production
From 1908 •USA and Spreading to Europe
FIFTH: •Age of Information Technology and Telecommunications
From 1971 •USA, spreading to Europe and Asia
SIXTH: •Age of Biotech, Nanotech, Bioelectronics and New Materials?
From 20??
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The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. * The Direction of innovation after the financial collapse, Carlota Perez, 9th Triple Helix Conference, July 2011

4. FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS IN THE 5TH WAVE
Financial Tools
Payment Channels
Derivative Explosion
• Swaps: interest rate, currency • SWIFT
• Credit default swaps • Credit and debit cards growth (online
• Total return swap authorization)
• Online (PayPal), mobile (Square), wallets
Asset Backed Securities • Micro transactions
• Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO)
• Auto, credit card, student, home equity
Value systems
• Airline mileage, hotel points, Bitcoin virtual
Banking Channels
currency, Facebook credits
• Mobility
• Online banking
Quantitative Finance
Markets
• Risk management
• FX, currency, equity, futures, commodities,
• Pricing, portfolio valuation
forwards
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5. FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS IN THE 5TH WAVE
Treasury
Corporate Finance
Capital Markets & Funding • Valuation methods
• Growth retail trading • Capital strategy
• Trade finance • Investment management
• A/R factoring • Corporate debt
• Securitization • M&A, outsourcing
• Commercial paper • Multi-currency/multi-geography contracts
Cash & Liquidity Management
• Forecasting cash needs
• Pooling
Treasury Operations & Control
• Global integration front, middle and back office
• Global monitoring and inter-connectivity
• Electronic bank interfacing
• Corporate system integration (i.e., SAP)
Risk Management • Visibility and reporting
• Enterprise Risk Management
• Hedging risks: interest, credit, currency, commodities
• Credit risk management
• Global risk management
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6. ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES
Asset-Backed Securities Outstanding (Billions)
Automobile Credit Card Equipment Home Equity Manufactured Housing Other1 Student Loans
3,500.0
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0
500.0
0.0
Asset-Backed Securities Issurance (millions)
Auto Credit Cards Equipment Home Equity Manufactured Housing Other Student Loans
800,000.00
300,000.00
-200,000.00
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7. UNITED STATES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
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8. UNITED STATES GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION
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9. US DEBT MARKETS
US Commercial Paper US Corporate Bond
Outstanding (USD Billions) Issurance (USD Billions)
2,500.0 1,500.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0 500.0
500.0
0.0
0.0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Jan/2007
Jan/2008
Jan/2009
Jan/2010
Jan/2011
Jan/2012
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Investment Grade High Yield
US Outstanding Money
Market Instruments (USD
Billions)
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0
Commercial Paper Bankers' Acceptance Lg. Time Deposits
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10. 5 FORCES DRIVING THE FUTURE
BIO-TECH, NANO-TECH, ENVIRO-TECH, INFO-TECH2, ROBOTICS
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11. BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY
• Cellular level rejuvenation
• DNA computing
• Hybrid robotic/biological
systems
• Genetically Modified Foods
to feed billions
• Uber-humans
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12. BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY
The demand for
replacement organs will
increase as Boomers pay
for their misspent lifestyles
Contact lenses with
circuits, lights a
possible platform for
superhuman vision
Craig Venter and team at Synthetic
Genomics engineered the first, human-
created, artificial lifeform
http://www.ted.com/talks/craig_venter_unveils_synthetic_life.html
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The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
Craig Venter

13. NANO TECHNOLOGY
• Ultra-pure, ultra-light, ultra-
efficient . . . ultra-everything
• Invisible computers and
infinite storage
• Alternative, alternative energy
• Homogenous by the billions
• Heterogeneous by the
molecules
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14. NANO TECHNOLOGY
Nanomaterials – ultra-pure, ultra-strong, ultra-lightweight, ultra-capable
Glowing Report
Smart Bomb Medicine Cabinet
Seek and Destroy
Power Pack
Tiny Turbine Cell Control
Alien Invasion
Nanomachines – extremely small machines
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15. ENERGY & ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY
• Ultra-efficient compute,
storage, communications
• Parasitic powered medical
devices
• Ultra-efficient, ultra-clean
energy generation
• Smart everything = Green
everything
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16. ENERGY & ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY
• ENMS system • 10% Renewable (not
continuously monitors on premises)
and optimizes energy • High efficiency UPS
consumption and generators
• BREEAM expected • 20+% total power
Cooling Monitoring rating “very good”
Power consumption
reduction*
• 97% Outside Air
Economizers
• Variable Speed Fans
• low velocity
undercroft plenum
pressurised to 20 Lighting
pascals
• ~50% carbon • Dimmable,
reduction* Addressable, Lighting
Interface
• 40-50% energy
reduction
• 45º orientation
Data Hall
Building
• Encapsulated Cold Air
Aisles
• Distributed High • Groundwater Recovery System • Southern Exposure
Performance Servers • Restored Ecosystem • 95% shell reuse
• Light Grey Racks • Public Transportation • 65% salvage recycled
• Higher operating set • 25% new from recycled
points Grounds • High efficiency Roof
* to comparable conventional facility
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17. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY
ENERGY - BEYOND “RENEWABLE”
Thermopower waves
Traveling Wave Nuclear Power
High efficiency direct conversion of
radiation to electricity
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18. ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY
• Nano-strong, nano-light
materials
• Biomimicry movements -
Nature as Model, Measure
and Mentor
• Bipedal, humanoid, or
whatever you want/need
• Autonomic actions
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19. HUMANOID ROBOTICS
Thinking Reasoning
• Optical Computing
• Memristors
• Neuromorphic Computing
Senses
• Inertial Guidance
• Chemical Sensors
• Pressure/Temperature
Muscles Skeleton
• Carbon nanotube
• Electro-elastic polymers
Energy Kojiro
• Nanotechnology- Robot
based batteries Tokyo
University
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20. NON-HUMANOID ROBOTICS
RoboFly
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21. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
• 3rd Wave moving to the
4th Wave
• Exploding Edges
• IT everywhere – flexible,
dynamic, invisible
• Autonomic Operations
• New capabilities, new uses,
new opportunities
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22. CONTINUED EXPONENTIAL IT
Memristors & Neuromorphic Computing Photonic Computing
2D to 3D Architectures
What Quantum Computing
will fill
this
hole?
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23. NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING AND FINANCE
– Millions of sensors
• Sense, interpret, correlate, and summarize all financial related
events
• Cash flows, Expenditures, Funding
• Investments & Assets
• Trade Finance
– Real-time Signal analysis to interpret and forecast
• Liquidity management
• Pro-forma financial position
• Multi-currency & multi-value
• Fraud
• Risk Exposures & Management
• Efficiency & Cost Analytics
• Valuation, pricing, Black Swans
– Applied learning methods
• Changing landscape: banks, customers, partners, and portfolio
• Cash & Liquidity Management
• Fraud
• Risk Exposures
– Simulation & Back-testing
– Distributed and ubiquitous
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24. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
25 ©2010 HP reproduction by permission only
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25. Hewlett-Packard Company Lawrence.ryan@hp.com
1 Penn Plaza; 8th Floor +1 (516) 901-3801
NY, NY 10121-0001
USA
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