Seeking sustainability in complex hunting systems
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This presentation was delivered by Nathalie van Vliet at the World Forestry Congress in Durban.
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Seeking sustainability in complex hunting systems
- 1. Nathalie van Vliet and Robert Nasi vanvlietnathalie@yahoo.com Seeking sustainability in complex hunting systems
- 3. Decision are to be made despite uncertainties
- 4. How can we estimate the sustainability of hunting?
- 5. PopulationsizeN Time T ProductionP Population size N Pmax 0.5 K K = carrying capacity Robinson and Redford model, 1991Robinson and Redford model, 1991
- 10. Proposition théorique: Considérer le système comme un système socio-écologique Emergence Conectivity Simple rules Co-evolution Iterations Re-organization capacity Embedded systems Chaos Emergence Conectivity Simple rules Co-evolution Iterations Re-organization capacity Embedded systems Chaos
- 11. EMERGENCE ..resilience and innovation RIGIDITY …lack of resilience
- 12. The social–ecological fishery system as conceptualized by the toy model. Tim M. Daw et al. PNAS 2015;112:6949-6954 ©2015 by National Academy of Sciences
- 13. Adaptive management of wildlife
Editor's Notes
- Thank you very much to the organizers and to you all for the participation to this session. In this short presentation I will try to convince us that the precautionary principle in sustainable use of wildlife needs to be replaced by the management of risks. We will talk here about seeking sustainability in complex hunting systems
- Let me start this presentation by a very important paper published in Science this year, where the authors highlight the uncertainties inherent in scientific models. They suggest that Policy should embrace a different dimension of precaution: flexibility.
- This other paper by Shultz, explains that decision-makers may desire to avoid the risks at all cost - they may simply put off the necessary decisions, pointlessly trying to eliminate the risks entirely. One way to do this is to suggest that more study on the relevant topics is needed to take further decisions. But this often leads to a statu quo or a paralisis in decision making. One of the most important, yet most difficult, things to establish is that risks are largely inevitable, and that they must be balanced with the costs involved in avoiding them. It may be difficult for parties to accept, but in many cases a trade-off of risks and benefits is necessary. Managing risk has become big business.
- The big question remains: is hunting sustainable?
- For many years, scientists have tried to estimate the sustainability of hunting using simple biological models, such as the Robinson and Redford model, based on the maximum production rate of a given species and it’s carrying capacity. However, several studies have now shown the limits of such models, on one hand, due to our inability in estimating the values of variables with accuracy, but most importantly because these models do not acknowledge the complexity of hunting systems, and over simplify sustainability to the comparison between production and harvest.
- The analysis of hunting sustainability, can not only take into account it’s ecological component
- It needs to include an understanding of the economic component that drives the system
- The health and nutrition issues
- The socio.cultural aspects etc…
- As such a hunting system, includes: 1. Resources, Actors, the natural environment and the dynamics and interactions between these components It is not acting in isolation and is therefore subject to change due to several external drivers. As such, hunting systems comply with the characteristics of complex systems. They are characterised by emergeance, conectivity between simple entities and rules, co evolution, iterations, re-organization capacity, embedded systems and by chaos. Chaos concerns the uncertainties that characterize the system which we would be unable to predict even with the best science.
- But we should not be scared of the uncertainties, because chaos is also key for innovation
- This graph illustrates the social–ecological fishery system as conceptualized by the toy model. A broad range of external drivers (orange) determine the nature and type of fishing activity (green background), which in turn determine aggregate outcomes (blue background), fishery outcomes (purple background), and the flows of benefits to the different resource users (yellow background)..
- The theoretical framework of socio-ecological systems allows us to embrace the uncertainties inherent to the system, understanding that sustainability is a complex and dynamic issue that needs to be sought through an adaptive management process. This includes the evaluation of the system to understand it’s current structure and dynamics, setting a monitoring system to fallow up changes and inform decision making, the negociation of management rules through a participatory decision making process, and mechanisms for control and enforcement.
- So, Let me conclude by going back to the conlcusions of the paper presented at the start of my presentation, To reach sustainability 3 main elements need to be taken into account: Decisions need to be robust whatever the scenarios and the uncertainty of our knowledge about the system: they need to incorporate risk management. Decisions do not necessarily need to be taken based on a perfect knowledge of the system, but rather on a monitoring system that can inform about changes observed Decisions need to be flexible and mechanisms for adaptive management need to be put in place from the start.
- This work is published in a special issue in Ecology and Society, that Robert and I have edited as guest editors. I invite you to read the papers published in that special issue if you interested in bushmeat issues in tropical forest areas.
- Thank you very much for your attention