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Oxford Institute of Ageing
          Population Ageing: Decline of Youth
                        Professor Sarah Harper
                        Oxford Institute of Ageing
                          University Of Oxford




OXFORD INSTITUTE    Copyright: Wisconsin Department of Children and Families
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
  Percentage of total population aged 60+, 2050




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING

                                     •Source: UN Population Projections 2008
Oxford Institute of Ageing
   •Percentage of total population aged >60 2050
    Percentage of total population aged <15 2050




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING

                                     •Source: UN Population Projections 2008
Oxford Institute of Ageing
700                      Asia has the largest, fastest growing
                                   older population


600


500
                                          1950
                                          1990
400                                       2025



300


200


100


OXFORD INSTITUTE
    0
OF AGEING
        Oceania      Nth       Sth      Africa     Europe        Asia
                   america   america
                                                                        Source: World Population Prospects UN
Oxford Institute of Ageing




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING

              •Distribution of sperm counts in relation to
                          the subfertile range
Oxford Institute of Ageing




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing

                                 Sperm concentration, young Danish men

                      12
                      10
     No. of men (%)




                       8
                       6
                       4
                       2
                       0
                                  10 10
                                  20 20
                                  30 30
                                  40 40
                                  50 50

                                   60 0


                                  80 80
                                 90 <90
                                  70 70




                                  0- 0
                                  0- 0
                                  0- 0
                                  0- 0
                                  0- 0
                                        50
                           0




                                         6




                                11 < 11
                                12 < 12
                                13 < 13
                                14 < 14
                                10 <10
                                     -<
                                     -<
                                     -<
                                     -<
                                     -<


                                     -<
                            -<




                                      -<




                                     <1
                                     -
                           >0




                                   -
                                        Categories of sperm concentration (mio/ml)

OXFORD INSTITUTE                     •Adjusted for duration of ejaculation
OF AGEING
                                                 abstinence
                                         •Source: Edinburgh, Hamburg and Leipzig
Oxford Institute of Ageing
                                                                                                         DK 1996-2005
                                             Sperm Concentration (mio/ml)
                                                                                                         US 1945
                        70

                        60
       No. of men (%)




                        50

                        40

                        30

                        20

                        10

                        0

                             0              20           40           60           80            00      0+
                                     0-
                                        <           -<           -<           -<               <1     10
                                 >               20           40           60           80
                                                                                             -

                                            Categories of sperm concentration (mio/ml)

       •Sperm concentration of young men - US 1945 vs.
OXFORD INSTITUTE
                    Denmark 1996-2005
OF AGEING                                                     •
   •                                    Source: US: Adapted from J. MacLeod, The Semen Specimen. In Diagnosis of
       •                                 Sterility 1946. Ed. Earl T. Engle. DK: Jørgensen et al: In manuscript 2007.
Oxford Institute of Ageing
                           Maturing Societies
40
35
30
25
                                                        Europe 0-14
20
                                                        Europe 60+
15
10
5
0
          1950          1980   2000   2025   2050

     OXFORD INSTITUTE
     OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
                          Maturing Societies
40
35
30
25
                                                       Asia 0-14
20
                                                       Asia 60+
15
10
 5
 0
          1950          1980   2000   2025   2050

     OXFORD INSTITUTE
     OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
                                       University of Oxford


             Schematic Age Profiles in Japan
                      1960                                    2020
85 plus




 Age




 0 to 4
          OXFORD INSTITUTE
            0
          OF AGEING                     15
             Percentage of population
Oxford Institute of Ageing
        The Future UK Retail market ?
  The over 50’s
• hold 60% of the UK’s savings
• represent 80% of the UK’s disposable wealth
• responsible for 40% of the UK consumer
  demand
• spend some £200 billion per year


  OXFORD INSTITUTE
  OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
                        The Future

The increasing dominance of the UK High
Street by retailers targeting the young, will be
replaced by more age-segregated shopping
areas ?




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
                     Sugamo in Tokyo




The district of Sugamo in Tokyo is now a vibrant area for
fashion and entertainment for the over-60’s which mirrors
the city’s Harajuku District, aimed at Tokyo’s teenagers.
 OXFORD INSTITUTE
 OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing
                     Grey: The new black?

 Is the “grey market” is set to become the new
  “black”.?
• around half the 50’s regularly shop on e-bay and
   more shop on line than the under 30’s.
   Are advertisers are beginning to recognise the over
  50s as creative consumers, who respond as well to
  attractive relevant marketing propositions as their
  children do ?
  OXFORD INSTITUTE
  OF AGEING
Oxford Institute of Ageing




OXFORD INSTITUTE
OF AGEING

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Sarah harper population_ageing

  • 1. Oxford Institute of Ageing Population Ageing: Decline of Youth Professor Sarah Harper Oxford Institute of Ageing University Of Oxford OXFORD INSTITUTE Copyright: Wisconsin Department of Children and Families OF AGEING
  • 2. Oxford Institute of Ageing Percentage of total population aged 60+, 2050 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING •Source: UN Population Projections 2008
  • 3. Oxford Institute of Ageing •Percentage of total population aged >60 2050 Percentage of total population aged <15 2050 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING •Source: UN Population Projections 2008
  • 4. Oxford Institute of Ageing 700 Asia has the largest, fastest growing older population 600 500 1950 1990 400 2025 300 200 100 OXFORD INSTITUTE 0 OF AGEING Oceania Nth Sth Africa Europe Asia america america Source: World Population Prospects UN
  • 5. Oxford Institute of Ageing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 6. Oxford Institute of Ageing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING •Distribution of sperm counts in relation to the subfertile range
  • 7. Oxford Institute of Ageing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 8. Oxford Institute of Ageing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 9. Oxford Institute of Ageing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 10. Oxford Institute of Ageing Sperm concentration, young Danish men 12 10 No. of men (%) 8 6 4 2 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 0 80 80 90 <90 70 70 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 50 0 6 11 < 11 12 < 12 13 < 13 14 < 14 10 <10 -< -< -< -< -< -< -< -< <1 - >0 - Categories of sperm concentration (mio/ml) OXFORD INSTITUTE •Adjusted for duration of ejaculation OF AGEING abstinence •Source: Edinburgh, Hamburg and Leipzig
  • 11. Oxford Institute of Ageing DK 1996-2005 Sperm Concentration (mio/ml) US 1945 70 60 No. of men (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 00 0+ 0- < -< -< -< <1 10 > 20 40 60 80 - Categories of sperm concentration (mio/ml) •Sperm concentration of young men - US 1945 vs. OXFORD INSTITUTE Denmark 1996-2005 OF AGEING • • Source: US: Adapted from J. MacLeod, The Semen Specimen. In Diagnosis of • Sterility 1946. Ed. Earl T. Engle. DK: Jørgensen et al: In manuscript 2007.
  • 12. Oxford Institute of Ageing Maturing Societies 40 35 30 25 Europe 0-14 20 Europe 60+ 15 10 5 0 1950 1980 2000 2025 2050 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 13. Oxford Institute of Ageing Maturing Societies 40 35 30 25 Asia 0-14 20 Asia 60+ 15 10 5 0 1950 1980 2000 2025 2050 OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 14. Oxford Institute of Ageing University of Oxford Schematic Age Profiles in Japan 1960 2020 85 plus Age 0 to 4 OXFORD INSTITUTE 0 OF AGEING 15 Percentage of population
  • 15. Oxford Institute of Ageing The Future UK Retail market ? The over 50’s • hold 60% of the UK’s savings • represent 80% of the UK’s disposable wealth • responsible for 40% of the UK consumer demand • spend some £200 billion per year OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 16. Oxford Institute of Ageing The Future The increasing dominance of the UK High Street by retailers targeting the young, will be replaced by more age-segregated shopping areas ? OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 17. Oxford Institute of Ageing Sugamo in Tokyo The district of Sugamo in Tokyo is now a vibrant area for fashion and entertainment for the over-60’s which mirrors the city’s Harajuku District, aimed at Tokyo’s teenagers. OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 18. Oxford Institute of Ageing Grey: The new black? Is the “grey market” is set to become the new “black”.? • around half the 50’s regularly shop on e-bay and more shop on line than the under 30’s. Are advertisers are beginning to recognise the over 50s as creative consumers, who respond as well to attractive relevant marketing propositions as their children do ? OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING
  • 19. Oxford Institute of Ageing OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING