Two in ten working age adults have been out of work for over a year in Visegrad economies and long term joblessness is especially high among the uneducated. The employment disadvantage of uneducated workers tends to be larger than in Western European countries, and is especially grievous in Hungary, where a relatively large share of the labour force has only completed primary school. The build-up of long term joblessnes may take its toll both on the individual and the economy. Beside the loss of human capital and potentially harmful effects on health and mental health, the lower job search intensity of the long term unemployed may lead to weaker wage adjustment and slower economic recovery. Long term non-employment also increases poverty and social exclusion, which may further constrain economic growth. Reducing long term unemployment by activating the unemployed, increasing the education level or preventing early retirement could potentially increase the total employment rateby 2-3 % points in the Visegrad countries.
The publication was authored by Ágota Scharle, with contributions from Márton Csillag, Lucia Mýtna Kureková, Monika Maksim, Anna Orosz, Filip Pertold, Izabela Styczyńska, and Balázs Váradi. It was prepared during the Policy workshops for V4 think tanks, sponsored by the Visegrad Fund.
Authored by: Izabela Styczynska
Published in 2014
This report, titled "Age and Productivity. Human Capital Accumulation and Depreciation", was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
The report focuses on links between age, productivity and lifelong learning. Various data sources (EU-SILC, LFS, Structure of Earnings Survey, SHARE, ELSA, SHARELIFE) and methodological approaches were used in this report. The analysis identifies clusters of countries with common characteristics of age-earnings profiles (for certain groups of employees) and allows for an explanation of those differences. Some differences can be attributed to the share of sectors, education types, and occupations in country-specific employment. Others are due to labour market institutions and the (dis)incentives to work at older ages provided by social security systems. Additionally, the dynamics of earnings after age 50 differ less between educational and occupational groups than at earlier ages. The authors show that the dynamics of average wages are strongly influenced by the timing of entering and leaving labour market. An estimation of the impact of LLL on productivity (measuredby earnings) at older ages shows that for employees aged 50+, participation in training increases wages in the short-term.
Written by Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, Maciej Lis, Monika Potoczna, Michele Belloni and Claudia Villosio. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58334
The paper studies labour developments in Moldova during transition period. The questions addressed are the size and character of labour market adjustment. Established data sources have been complemented by the results of available surveys to get more precise estimates of the effective employment. Wage data was adjusted for the stock of arrears. We conclude that adjustment to the new market order in Moldova has been done trough prices, which is similar to other FSU countries. Real wages, if adjusted for arrears, amount to only 14% of the pre-transition level. On the other hand, only small labour shedding is observed. Registered unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the FSU and CEE countries. Such way of adjustment has a number of negative consequences, the most important being the phenomenon of unpaid leaves. It appears, that only formal affiliation with enterprise remains, leaving those people effectively unemployed. Survey evidence report double-digit open unemployment rates, with widespread under-employment. With no system of unemployment benefits in place, a substantial number of labour force is involved in survival informal activities.
Authored by: Elena Jarocinska
Published in 2000
Long-term care (LTC) in the new EU member states, which used to belong to the former socialist countries, is not yet a legally separated sector of social security. However, the ageing dynamics are more intensive in these states than in the old EU member states. This paper analyses the process of creating an LTC sector in the context of institutional reforms of social protection systems during the transition period. The authors explain LTC’s position straddling the health and social sectors, the underdevelopment of formal LTC, and the current policies regarding the risk of LTC dependency. The paper is based mainly on the analysis of information provided by country experts in the ANCIEN project.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska and Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2013
This work is done as contribution to the Regional Human Development Report 2004 section 3.7 on “Labor Markets”. The paper focuses on discussing peculiarities of the labor market transition in CIS countries, features of unemployment, labor legislation, and role of the trade unions.
The paper gathers information on the labor markets of CIS and Eastern European countries that was available by summer 2004, and draws policy recommendations based on comparison between these two groups of countries. The main conclusion is that the transformation of labor markets is not complete in any of the CIS countries; most of the problems that prevailed in the early 1990s remain. These include: centralized wage setting in five CIS countries – Belarus, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan; extensive unemployment and underemployment, much of which is hidden; ineffective systems of labor relations and social protection; large mismatches between the labor market skills supplied and the skills demanded by new market economies; inadequate official labor market data.
Fortunately, the strong economic growth experienced by most CIS countries since 1999 has increased the demand for labor and is putting downward pressures on unemployment rates. This offers a window of opportunity for policy makers seeking to further transform labor markets, and to modernize labor relations and social protection systems. The above analysis suggests the policy recommendations to speed up further transformation.
Authored by: Olga Pavlova, Oleksandr Rohozynsky
Published in 2005
The importance of new firm creation in the post-Communist economies of East Central Europe (ECE) has been subject to extensive research. This paper focuses on an area of entrepreneurship which has received relatively little attention in the transition economy context but which is of particular importance for the modernization of the transition economies: knowledge-based entrepreneurship (KBE), or new firm creation in industries considered to be science-based or to use research and development (R&D) intensively. We begin by sketching the situation in Estonia‟s small and medium-sized business sector, then proceed to study the conditions for high-tech firm development in the country, with particular attention devoted to the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which have been of particular significance in the Estonian case, as well as the questions of finance and policy initiatives. We then turn to the analysis of a series of case studies of firms active in the areas of information technology, life sciences, and digital mapping and navigation technology. Among the issues treated are the resources and strategies involved in KBE in Estonia, the relationships (networks) of the firms in question and how they are used for knowledge acquisition, and barriers to innovation and development. In spite of a relative lack of government support, we find that overall Estonia appears to be one of the better locations for KBE in the ECE region, with rising R&D spending, a highly educated entrepreneurial class, and universities that have moved forward rapidly in the development of technology transfer support facilities. The firms studied here rely for much of their success on foreign markets; on the other hand, difficulties in internationalisation can be identified as one of the key bottlenecks for the development of Estonian KBE. In the area of business relationships and networks, academic partners dominate.
Authored by: Janita Andrijevskaja, Tonis Mets, Urmas Varblane
Published in 2010
The aim of this work is to present an in depth understanding of the conceptual framework of active ageing policies, which have been created and implemented in Poland. The discussion of active ageing in employment in Poland started relatively late. The first discussions on the unfavourable situation of elderly employment emerged only in the second half of the 1990s, when the debate on the pension system reform started. While only a few ageing policies were developed at the national level during that time, several interesting initiatives were undertaken at a regional level and in the third sector. They were mostly focused on productive ageing and the problems associated with the economic activation of people over 50. The intensive implementation of the active ageing policies in Poland started in 2012, during the European Year of Active Ageing. At present, there is an intense discussion on policies addressed to the elderly, which concentrate not only on the activation of the labour market, but also on healthy, active and socially inclusive ageing, education andcivil engagement.
This paper concludes that despite intense work being done by public authorities, the concept still needs a deeper implementation - especially at the regional level. Furthermore, close observation and evaluation of the activation programmes is still missing and the identification and implementation of good practices which are already being developed in other European countries is under-used.
Authored by: Izabela Styczynska
This report, titled "Age and Productivity. Human Capital Accumulation and Depreciation", was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
The report focuses on links between age, productivity and lifelong learning. Various data sources (EU-SILC, LFS, Structure of Earnings Survey, SHARE, ELSA, SHARELIFE) and methodological approaches were used in this report. The analysis identifies clusters of countries with common characteristics of age-earnings profiles (for certain groups of employees) and allows for an explanation of those differences. Some differences can be attributed to the share of sectors, education types, and occupations in country-specific employment. Others are due to labour market institutions and the (dis)incentives to work at older ages provided by social security systems. Additionally, the dynamics of earnings after age 50 differ less between educational and occupational groups than at earlier ages. The authors show that the dynamics of average wages are strongly influenced by the timing of entering and leaving labour market. An estimation of the impact of LLL on productivity (measuredby earnings) at older ages shows that for employees aged 50+, participation in training increases wages in the short-term.
Written by Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, Maciej Lis, Monika Potoczna, Michele Belloni and Claudia Villosio. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58334
The paper studies labour developments in Moldova during transition period. The questions addressed are the size and character of labour market adjustment. Established data sources have been complemented by the results of available surveys to get more precise estimates of the effective employment. Wage data was adjusted for the stock of arrears. We conclude that adjustment to the new market order in Moldova has been done trough prices, which is similar to other FSU countries. Real wages, if adjusted for arrears, amount to only 14% of the pre-transition level. On the other hand, only small labour shedding is observed. Registered unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the FSU and CEE countries. Such way of adjustment has a number of negative consequences, the most important being the phenomenon of unpaid leaves. It appears, that only formal affiliation with enterprise remains, leaving those people effectively unemployed. Survey evidence report double-digit open unemployment rates, with widespread under-employment. With no system of unemployment benefits in place, a substantial number of labour force is involved in survival informal activities.
Authored by: Elena Jarocinska
Published in 2000
Long-term care (LTC) in the new EU member states, which used to belong to the former socialist countries, is not yet a legally separated sector of social security. However, the ageing dynamics are more intensive in these states than in the old EU member states. This paper analyses the process of creating an LTC sector in the context of institutional reforms of social protection systems during the transition period. The authors explain LTC’s position straddling the health and social sectors, the underdevelopment of formal LTC, and the current policies regarding the risk of LTC dependency. The paper is based mainly on the analysis of information provided by country experts in the ANCIEN project.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska and Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2013
This work is done as contribution to the Regional Human Development Report 2004 section 3.7 on “Labor Markets”. The paper focuses on discussing peculiarities of the labor market transition in CIS countries, features of unemployment, labor legislation, and role of the trade unions.
The paper gathers information on the labor markets of CIS and Eastern European countries that was available by summer 2004, and draws policy recommendations based on comparison between these two groups of countries. The main conclusion is that the transformation of labor markets is not complete in any of the CIS countries; most of the problems that prevailed in the early 1990s remain. These include: centralized wage setting in five CIS countries – Belarus, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan; extensive unemployment and underemployment, much of which is hidden; ineffective systems of labor relations and social protection; large mismatches between the labor market skills supplied and the skills demanded by new market economies; inadequate official labor market data.
Fortunately, the strong economic growth experienced by most CIS countries since 1999 has increased the demand for labor and is putting downward pressures on unemployment rates. This offers a window of opportunity for policy makers seeking to further transform labor markets, and to modernize labor relations and social protection systems. The above analysis suggests the policy recommendations to speed up further transformation.
Authored by: Olga Pavlova, Oleksandr Rohozynsky
Published in 2005
The importance of new firm creation in the post-Communist economies of East Central Europe (ECE) has been subject to extensive research. This paper focuses on an area of entrepreneurship which has received relatively little attention in the transition economy context but which is of particular importance for the modernization of the transition economies: knowledge-based entrepreneurship (KBE), or new firm creation in industries considered to be science-based or to use research and development (R&D) intensively. We begin by sketching the situation in Estonia‟s small and medium-sized business sector, then proceed to study the conditions for high-tech firm development in the country, with particular attention devoted to the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which have been of particular significance in the Estonian case, as well as the questions of finance and policy initiatives. We then turn to the analysis of a series of case studies of firms active in the areas of information technology, life sciences, and digital mapping and navigation technology. Among the issues treated are the resources and strategies involved in KBE in Estonia, the relationships (networks) of the firms in question and how they are used for knowledge acquisition, and barriers to innovation and development. In spite of a relative lack of government support, we find that overall Estonia appears to be one of the better locations for KBE in the ECE region, with rising R&D spending, a highly educated entrepreneurial class, and universities that have moved forward rapidly in the development of technology transfer support facilities. The firms studied here rely for much of their success on foreign markets; on the other hand, difficulties in internationalisation can be identified as one of the key bottlenecks for the development of Estonian KBE. In the area of business relationships and networks, academic partners dominate.
Authored by: Janita Andrijevskaja, Tonis Mets, Urmas Varblane
Published in 2010
The aim of this work is to present an in depth understanding of the conceptual framework of active ageing policies, which have been created and implemented in Poland. The discussion of active ageing in employment in Poland started relatively late. The first discussions on the unfavourable situation of elderly employment emerged only in the second half of the 1990s, when the debate on the pension system reform started. While only a few ageing policies were developed at the national level during that time, several interesting initiatives were undertaken at a regional level and in the third sector. They were mostly focused on productive ageing and the problems associated with the economic activation of people over 50. The intensive implementation of the active ageing policies in Poland started in 2012, during the European Year of Active Ageing. At present, there is an intense discussion on policies addressed to the elderly, which concentrate not only on the activation of the labour market, but also on healthy, active and socially inclusive ageing, education andcivil engagement.
This paper concludes that despite intense work being done by public authorities, the concept still needs a deeper implementation - especially at the regional level. Furthermore, close observation and evaluation of the activation programmes is still missing and the identification and implementation of good practices which are already being developed in other European countries is under-used.
Authored by: Izabela Styczynska
The growth and scale of informal employment in many developing countries has been traditionally attributed to the displacement of workers into insecure forms of labour market attachment as the only feasible alternative to unemployment (Fields, 1975; Mazumdar, 1976). More recently a number of authors (Pradhan and van Soest, 1995, 1997; Cohen and House, 1996; Marcoullier et al., 1997; Maloney, 1999; Saavedra and Chong, 1999; Gong and van Soest, 2002) question this interpretation of informality, by calling into doubt the idea that the existence of informal and formal sectors is a manifestation of “dualism” in the labour market.
A further strand of research has highlighted the dynamic “micro-entrepreneurial” nature of informal economic activity (Cunningham and Maloney, 2001; Maloney, 2004; Pisani and Pagan, 2004). This view of informality is well-established and can be traced back to the work of Hart (1972). A final view (and one which we do not address in the present paper) concerns the relationship between informality and illegal or tax-evading activity (see Gerxhani, 2004, and Loayza et al., 2005). Each of these alternative views shares in common the idea that informal activity may be freely chosen by some workers.
These individuals either perceive state social protection to be poor “value for money” or do not wish to have the conditions of their employment relationship (such as hours of work) restricted by tight state labour market regulation. Alternatively, they may be attracted by the prospective job satisfaction or income stream associated with a successful transition into entrepreneurship, or may perceive the relative benefits of illegal or unregistered activity to outweigh the risks of detection.
The size of the informal sector is of particular interest to economic policy makers concerned to promote the development of a micro-entrepreneurial sector. This concern arises because of its perceived contribution to dynamic economic efficiency, possibly as a response to growing competitive pressures brought about by trade liberalization.
On the other hand policy makers may be concerned that significant numbers, perhaps even a majority of workers in developing countries have little or no social security provision. This means that they have little on which to fall back in the event of illness, unemployment or old age, beyond personal wealth and extended family support. A narrower but nevertheless important concern may be to reduce informality in order to widen the base of direct taxation.
This discussion of alternative perspectives on informality brings into sharp focus the question of the most appropriate way to define and measure the informal sector. This is a question which has attracted little or no detailed attention in the literature. The purpose of the present paper is to attempt to redress this. This lack of attention may arise from the paucity of data on a sector which by its nature is problematic to define.
This paper addresses the issue of household demand for services in Poland when informal sector is taken into consideration. The aim of the study is threefold: (i) to investigate the factors influencing households expenses for services, (ii) to find the determinants of households’ tax strategy (choice between acquiring services on regular labour market or not), (iii) to investigate the differences between the factors that influence the expenses for formal versus informal services. Two-step Heckman selection model is used to account for the selection into buying household services. Lee’s (1983) procedure is adopted to control for the selection into the particular choice of tax strategy when purchasing household services. The decision whether to buy household services and whether formally or informally is modelled as a sequential choice and estimated by bivariate probit with selection. An important novel feature of the model used is the inclusion of variables that capture social
norms and personal attitudes toward tax evasion. The study concludes that factors influencing expenses for services are positively related to financial situation of households, education and age of household head. The probability of avoiding taxes is higher for lower income households, households with more than one member and for those where a positive attitude toward informal employment is expressed. The impact of determinants of expenses for formal and informal services separately is comparable. Only household structure has the opposite effect on expenses for formal services versus informal ones.
Authored by Izabela Styczynska
Published in 2012
Mediterranean and EU member countries consider enhancing innovation and R&D an important policy objective. In order to improve economic competitiveness and increase their citizens’ welfare, these countries have been formulating and implementing innovation policies. In recent years, the volume of resources allocated to such policies has considerably increased and the number of instruments used in this framework has widened. Nevertheless, a relatively limited number of studies have been conducted to assess the effectiveness of innovation policies in these countries and formulate proposals for those aspects of policies that are in contradiction with the aims.
Authored by: Krzysztof Szczygielski, Wojciech Grabowski, M. Teoman Pamukcu, Sinan Tandogan
Published in 2013
The paper discusses possible directions and magnitudes of the relationship between the social security driven tax wedge, employment and shadow employment in Russia and Ukraine. The first section presents a summary of the economic and institutional background for development of the current size and structure of the socially driven tax wedge in both countries. The second section presents some theoretical considerations on the relationship between the social protection system, tax wedge, non-employment and finally, shadow employment. The third section contains an attempt to econometrically estimate the magnitude of the possible relationship between the tax wedge and total employment rates in both countries. In the fourth section, the authors try to discover the mechanism of influence of the last reform of the Ukrainian payroll tax system on the structure and size of shadow employment in the country. The last analytical section closes the circle leading the reader back from shadow employment to wages and finally to the issue of access to social security institutions. The last section concludes.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Irina Sinitsina, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2009
This paper analyzes the direct and indirect income effects of international labor migration and remittances in selected CIS countries. The analysis is based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. All net emigration countries would experience a sharp contraction of private consumption in the absence of remittances. In Russia, the main effect of immigration has been to hold down the real wage (as potential capital stock adjustments in response to immigration are not reflected in the authors comparative-static modeling framework). The paper concludes that because of the important contribution of migration and remittances to stabilizing and sustaining incomes in many CIS countries, enhanced opportunities for legal labor migration should figure prominently in any deepening of bilateral relations between CIS countries and the European Union under the European Neighborhood Policy.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Toman Omar Mahmoud, Roman Mogilevsky, Kseniya Tereshchenko, Natalia Tourdyeva
Published in 2009
Ainura Uzagalieva
Vitaly Vavryschuk
The social changes in Poland over the last two decades have had an impact on many dimensions of life, including on important elements of human capital, such as health and functional and instrumental daily activities. This article contains an overview of the available data and indicators on health status, morbidity and disability. It presents the changes in the level of functional and legal disability and aims to show the reasons for these trends. Functional disability is highlighted as one of the major challenges for social and health policy in the next few decades in the context of dynamic aging.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska and Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2012
Which emerging country has built one of the world's first air hubs in three and a half years?
Which country has 80 construction groups among the 300 world leaders in the sector that are planning to expand into Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa?
It is Turkey.
How is this deployment force of Turkish groups characterized?
A wealth of information about this country to discover on the Turkey Study carried out by ICDM - Institut pour la Conquête Des Marchés with the TAC ECONOMICS and the Lépac Laboratory for Prospective Studies and Cartographic Analysis.
Click here to find out more: https://lnkd.in/gdkyu2G
The regulatory environment for businesses in Ukraine has been considered unfavorable and market unfriendly. Although various governments have made numerous efforts to improve it, many of these attempts have failed and increasing the quality of the regulatory environment in the country still remains on the agenda of the government. With this report we claim to review a set of measures undertaken in Ukraine after the Orange Revolution in the area of deregulation of business activity. The paper analyzes the effectiveness of actions undertaken in Ukraine in a general framework of successful regulatory policies implemented in other parts of the world. Based on this analysis we developed concrete public policy measures aiming to increase the quality of the regulatory environment in the country, which, in turn, should secure Ukraine’s further movement toward a real, functioning market economy.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz, Oleg Ustenko
Published in 2006
Boletín empleo Albacete nº 6. Mica Consultores. ofertas de empleo en Albacete.MICA CONSULTORES
Ofertas de empleo en Albacete.
Ofertas de trabajo en Albacete.
Boletín de empleo nº6 de Mica Consultores, Ofertas de trabajo y empleo en Albacete.
www.micaconsultores.blogspot.com
• Masa muda adalah masa yang menentukan : Jadi apa anda kelak ketika dewasa.
• Masa muda adalah masa yang menggairahkan : Dimana energi dan kreatifitas tercurah deras.
• Masa muda adalah masa pembelajaran : Belajar mencicipi pahit-getirnya hidup agar semakin bijak ketika sudah dewasa.
• Masa muda adalah masa pembentukan : Mencari jati diri dan tujuan hidup sebenarnya.
• Masa muda adalah masa perjuangan : Kerja keras dan displin untuk kesuksesan nanti.
• Masa muda semangatnya untuk menggapai cita dan asa : mengasah talenta dan kemampuan agar menjadi orang berguna bagi bangsa dan negara.
• Masa muda tidak butuh kesenangan seks sesaat karena nafsu ini tidak membentuk kepribadian kita melainkan berpotensi merusak dan menghancurkannya.
Kepribadian kita terbentuk dari perjuangan dan semangat dalam melewati tantangan hidup. Ingatlah, yang namanya nafsu tidak akan pernah terpuaskan melainkan meminta korban lagi dan lagi.
Jangan sia-siakan masa mudamu karena seks tetapi jagalah kesucianmu (perjaka & perawan) sampai waktunya tiba nanti (Pernikahan), mengapa :
The growth and scale of informal employment in many developing countries has been traditionally attributed to the displacement of workers into insecure forms of labour market attachment as the only feasible alternative to unemployment (Fields, 1975; Mazumdar, 1976). More recently a number of authors (Pradhan and van Soest, 1995, 1997; Cohen and House, 1996; Marcoullier et al., 1997; Maloney, 1999; Saavedra and Chong, 1999; Gong and van Soest, 2002) question this interpretation of informality, by calling into doubt the idea that the existence of informal and formal sectors is a manifestation of “dualism” in the labour market.
A further strand of research has highlighted the dynamic “micro-entrepreneurial” nature of informal economic activity (Cunningham and Maloney, 2001; Maloney, 2004; Pisani and Pagan, 2004). This view of informality is well-established and can be traced back to the work of Hart (1972). A final view (and one which we do not address in the present paper) concerns the relationship between informality and illegal or tax-evading activity (see Gerxhani, 2004, and Loayza et al., 2005). Each of these alternative views shares in common the idea that informal activity may be freely chosen by some workers.
These individuals either perceive state social protection to be poor “value for money” or do not wish to have the conditions of their employment relationship (such as hours of work) restricted by tight state labour market regulation. Alternatively, they may be attracted by the prospective job satisfaction or income stream associated with a successful transition into entrepreneurship, or may perceive the relative benefits of illegal or unregistered activity to outweigh the risks of detection.
The size of the informal sector is of particular interest to economic policy makers concerned to promote the development of a micro-entrepreneurial sector. This concern arises because of its perceived contribution to dynamic economic efficiency, possibly as a response to growing competitive pressures brought about by trade liberalization.
On the other hand policy makers may be concerned that significant numbers, perhaps even a majority of workers in developing countries have little or no social security provision. This means that they have little on which to fall back in the event of illness, unemployment or old age, beyond personal wealth and extended family support. A narrower but nevertheless important concern may be to reduce informality in order to widen the base of direct taxation.
This discussion of alternative perspectives on informality brings into sharp focus the question of the most appropriate way to define and measure the informal sector. This is a question which has attracted little or no detailed attention in the literature. The purpose of the present paper is to attempt to redress this. This lack of attention may arise from the paucity of data on a sector which by its nature is problematic to define.
This paper addresses the issue of household demand for services in Poland when informal sector is taken into consideration. The aim of the study is threefold: (i) to investigate the factors influencing households expenses for services, (ii) to find the determinants of households’ tax strategy (choice between acquiring services on regular labour market or not), (iii) to investigate the differences between the factors that influence the expenses for formal versus informal services. Two-step Heckman selection model is used to account for the selection into buying household services. Lee’s (1983) procedure is adopted to control for the selection into the particular choice of tax strategy when purchasing household services. The decision whether to buy household services and whether formally or informally is modelled as a sequential choice and estimated by bivariate probit with selection. An important novel feature of the model used is the inclusion of variables that capture social
norms and personal attitudes toward tax evasion. The study concludes that factors influencing expenses for services are positively related to financial situation of households, education and age of household head. The probability of avoiding taxes is higher for lower income households, households with more than one member and for those where a positive attitude toward informal employment is expressed. The impact of determinants of expenses for formal and informal services separately is comparable. Only household structure has the opposite effect on expenses for formal services versus informal ones.
Authored by Izabela Styczynska
Published in 2012
Mediterranean and EU member countries consider enhancing innovation and R&D an important policy objective. In order to improve economic competitiveness and increase their citizens’ welfare, these countries have been formulating and implementing innovation policies. In recent years, the volume of resources allocated to such policies has considerably increased and the number of instruments used in this framework has widened. Nevertheless, a relatively limited number of studies have been conducted to assess the effectiveness of innovation policies in these countries and formulate proposals for those aspects of policies that are in contradiction with the aims.
Authored by: Krzysztof Szczygielski, Wojciech Grabowski, M. Teoman Pamukcu, Sinan Tandogan
Published in 2013
The paper discusses possible directions and magnitudes of the relationship between the social security driven tax wedge, employment and shadow employment in Russia and Ukraine. The first section presents a summary of the economic and institutional background for development of the current size and structure of the socially driven tax wedge in both countries. The second section presents some theoretical considerations on the relationship between the social protection system, tax wedge, non-employment and finally, shadow employment. The third section contains an attempt to econometrically estimate the magnitude of the possible relationship between the tax wedge and total employment rates in both countries. In the fourth section, the authors try to discover the mechanism of influence of the last reform of the Ukrainian payroll tax system on the structure and size of shadow employment in the country. The last analytical section closes the circle leading the reader back from shadow employment to wages and finally to the issue of access to social security institutions. The last section concludes.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Irina Sinitsina, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2009
This paper analyzes the direct and indirect income effects of international labor migration and remittances in selected CIS countries. The analysis is based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. All net emigration countries would experience a sharp contraction of private consumption in the absence of remittances. In Russia, the main effect of immigration has been to hold down the real wage (as potential capital stock adjustments in response to immigration are not reflected in the authors comparative-static modeling framework). The paper concludes that because of the important contribution of migration and remittances to stabilizing and sustaining incomes in many CIS countries, enhanced opportunities for legal labor migration should figure prominently in any deepening of bilateral relations between CIS countries and the European Union under the European Neighborhood Policy.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Toman Omar Mahmoud, Roman Mogilevsky, Kseniya Tereshchenko, Natalia Tourdyeva
Published in 2009
Ainura Uzagalieva
Vitaly Vavryschuk
The social changes in Poland over the last two decades have had an impact on many dimensions of life, including on important elements of human capital, such as health and functional and instrumental daily activities. This article contains an overview of the available data and indicators on health status, morbidity and disability. It presents the changes in the level of functional and legal disability and aims to show the reasons for these trends. Functional disability is highlighted as one of the major challenges for social and health policy in the next few decades in the context of dynamic aging.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska and Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2012
Which emerging country has built one of the world's first air hubs in three and a half years?
Which country has 80 construction groups among the 300 world leaders in the sector that are planning to expand into Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa?
It is Turkey.
How is this deployment force of Turkish groups characterized?
A wealth of information about this country to discover on the Turkey Study carried out by ICDM - Institut pour la Conquête Des Marchés with the TAC ECONOMICS and the Lépac Laboratory for Prospective Studies and Cartographic Analysis.
Click here to find out more: https://lnkd.in/gdkyu2G
The regulatory environment for businesses in Ukraine has been considered unfavorable and market unfriendly. Although various governments have made numerous efforts to improve it, many of these attempts have failed and increasing the quality of the regulatory environment in the country still remains on the agenda of the government. With this report we claim to review a set of measures undertaken in Ukraine after the Orange Revolution in the area of deregulation of business activity. The paper analyzes the effectiveness of actions undertaken in Ukraine in a general framework of successful regulatory policies implemented in other parts of the world. Based on this analysis we developed concrete public policy measures aiming to increase the quality of the regulatory environment in the country, which, in turn, should secure Ukraine’s further movement toward a real, functioning market economy.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz, Oleg Ustenko
Published in 2006
Boletín empleo Albacete nº 6. Mica Consultores. ofertas de empleo en Albacete.MICA CONSULTORES
Ofertas de empleo en Albacete.
Ofertas de trabajo en Albacete.
Boletín de empleo nº6 de Mica Consultores, Ofertas de trabajo y empleo en Albacete.
www.micaconsultores.blogspot.com
• Masa muda adalah masa yang menentukan : Jadi apa anda kelak ketika dewasa.
• Masa muda adalah masa yang menggairahkan : Dimana energi dan kreatifitas tercurah deras.
• Masa muda adalah masa pembelajaran : Belajar mencicipi pahit-getirnya hidup agar semakin bijak ketika sudah dewasa.
• Masa muda adalah masa pembentukan : Mencari jati diri dan tujuan hidup sebenarnya.
• Masa muda adalah masa perjuangan : Kerja keras dan displin untuk kesuksesan nanti.
• Masa muda semangatnya untuk menggapai cita dan asa : mengasah talenta dan kemampuan agar menjadi orang berguna bagi bangsa dan negara.
• Masa muda tidak butuh kesenangan seks sesaat karena nafsu ini tidak membentuk kepribadian kita melainkan berpotensi merusak dan menghancurkannya.
Kepribadian kita terbentuk dari perjuangan dan semangat dalam melewati tantangan hidup. Ingatlah, yang namanya nafsu tidak akan pernah terpuaskan melainkan meminta korban lagi dan lagi.
Jangan sia-siakan masa mudamu karena seks tetapi jagalah kesucianmu (perjaka & perawan) sampai waktunya tiba nanti (Pernikahan), mengapa :
Finding Ground States of Sherrington-Kirkpatrick Spin Glasses with Hierarchic...Martin Pelikan
This study focuses on the problem of finding ground states of random instances of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) spin-glass model with Gaussian couplings. While the ground states of SK spin-glass instances can be obtained with branch and bound, the computational complexity of branch and bound yields instances of not more than about 90 spins. We describe several approaches based on the hierarchical Bayesian optimization algorithm (hBOA) to reliably identifying ground states of SK instances intractable with branch and bound, and present a broad range of empirical results on such problem instances. We argue that the proposed methodology holds a big promise for reliably solving large SK spin-glass instances to optimality with practical time complexity. The proposed approaches to identifying global optima reliably can also be applied to other problems and they can be used with many other evolutionary algorithms. Performance of hBOA is compared to that of the genetic algorithm with two common crossover operators.
"Mějte ve správný čas a na správném místě potřebný počet agentů s těmi správnými dovednostmi" – efektivně předvídejte vytížení kontaktního centra a mějte plánování směn agentů plně pod kontrolou se ZOOM Workforce Management.
Demographic change (driven by the second demographic transition) led to an uncontrolled increase in scale of various social expenditure in the OECD area, especially in continental Europe. Costs of social transfers created fiscal pressure leading to the necessity of tax increases all over Europe, including the New Member States. Employment consequences of emerging higher tax wedge has become the topic of large body of research. However, surprisingly little evidence is known on distribution of that problem across workers. Is the effect of high tax wedge equally spread or certain groups of workers suffer more than others? More specifically, are low productivity workers exposed more to the problems caused by high tax wedge?
Authored by: Marek Gora, Artur Radziwill, Agnieszka Sowa, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2006
The objective of the PICK-ME (Policy Incentives for Creation of Knowledge – Methods and Evidence) research project is to provide theoretical and empirical perspectives on innovation which give a greater role to the demand-side aspect of innovation. The main question is how can policy make enterprises more willing to innovate? This task is fulfilled by identifying what we consider the central or most salient aspect of a demand-side innovation- driven economy, which is the small and entrepreneurial yet fast growing and innovative firm. We use the term “Gazelle” to signify this type of firm throughout the paper. The main concern of policy-makers should therefore be how to support Gazelle type of firms through various policies. The effectiveness of different policy instruments are considered. For example, venture capitalism is in the paper identified as an important modern institution that renders exactly the type of coordination necessary to bring about an innovation system more orientated towards the demand side. This is because experienced entrepreneurs with superior skills in terms of judging the marketability of new innovations step in as financiers. Other factor market bottlenecks on the skills side must be targeted through education policies that fosters centers of excellence. R&D incentives are also considered as a separate instrument but more a question for future research since there is no evidence available on R&D incentives as a Gazelle type of policy. Spatial policies to foster more innovation have been popular in the past. But we conclude that whereas the literature often finds that new knowledge is developed in communities of physically proximate firms, there is no overshadowing evidence showing that spatial policies in particular had any impact on generating more of the Gazelle type of firms.
Authored by: Itzhak Goldberg, Camilla Jensen
Published in 2014
There is a large body of literature on the relationship between innovations and employment at the firm level, with most of the results indicating positive effects. Thus far, this kind of analysis has not been performed for Poland and it seems to be an important and interesting field for research. On the other hand, there is some empirical evidence that developments in the Polish labour market are at least partially driven by the Skill Biased Technical Change (SBTC) process. This paper tries to fill in this gap by looking at three dimensions of the relationship between innovations and employment in Poland: innovations and job creation, innovations and the skill structure of employment innovations, and wage formation. The results of the analysis indicate that there is a weak but positive relationship between the level of innovations and the probability of job creation. However, we have not been able to prove that innovations have any effect on the skill structure of labour demand in Poland. We have however found a positive and statistically significant relationship between the level of innovations and skill-biased wage changes. The results indicate that innovations positively influence the wages of skilled workers while they negatively influence the wages of the unskilled.
Authored by: Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2009
This paper focuses on emerging labour patterns within the Socio-Ecological Transition (SET), with particular attention paid to the effects of urbanisation. Based on the European Labour Force Survey (ELFS), the authors mobilize micro-econometric approaches in order to understand three major employment patterns: job mobility (between unemployment, inactivity, and employment), the desire to change jobs, and underemployment (i.e. part time jobs) in the European Union.
The results show that the urbanization transition might express some positive effects on the labour market in the medium-term for several reasons. The employment rate has slightly decreased in all types of regions, yet it remains higher in urban settlements. Urban settlements offer more job opportunities and more part-time employment options. However, cyclical shocks tend to have a higher impact on urban areas when compared to rural areas. This means higher chances for employment in urban settlements during a boom and more job losses during a slow-down (causing less security on the labour market).
Authored by: Izabela Styczynska, Boris Najman, Alexander Neumann
Published in 2013
Job support and coaching for People with Disabilities in the EUUNDP Ukraine
This report is based on the outcomes of research on the current general provision of employment support and job coaching programmes for PwDs across the EU. In particular it examines seven EU countries’ provisions in this area of the labour market. It also relies on the author’s own experience of managing the mainstreaming of employment services for PwDs in Ireland and on evaluations he conducted inter-alia on services to PwDs in some non-EU countries.
This paper is an overview of the achievements in the area of employee financial participation (EFP) during the last fifty years. It addresses the question of the extent to which EFP is relevant in today’s world. EFP is distinguished from participation in management (industrial democracy), and the various types of EP are discussed. The major arguments for EFP are presented and discussed critically. The evolution of major forms of EFP, the scale of their operation in several advanced economies, and the legal and tax incentives for EFP are described. The efforts of European Union bodies to popularise this idea in all member countries are illustrated. Showing that EFP has become a broadly recognised principle of modern management in thousands of enterprises, we consider opportunities for disseminating these solutions on a wider scale, in particular in Poland. Finally, a number of directions for further research on financial participation are considered.
Authored by: Barbara Blaszczyk
Published in 2014
The paper analyses the relationship between labour costs and employment development in manufacturing industry in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. It indicates the need for thorough labour cost analysis in Europe in the context low employment rates among New Member States. The steps taken within the framework of the EU's common employment policy emphasise the crucial role of labour costsin enhancing labour demand.
The question raised in this paper is whether the cost of hiring labour is a significant determinant of employment in Polish, Czech and Hungarian manufacturing and is considered in terms of both relative (unit labour costs) and absolute (labour costs per one employee) measures. The study examines the labour costemployment relationship aiming to find out whether it differs significantly between the three countries and between commodity groups in manufacturing industry within each country.
Authored by: Agnieszka Furmanska-Maruszak
Published in 2006
The paper focuses on the social safety nets in Russian Federation and Ukraine in the view of changes on the labour market since the beginning of economic transition. The authors showed that many past phenomena (e.g. restructuring of the economy, wage and pension arrears, new groups at-risk-of-poverty, demographic transition) caused a need to change an old type social safety net (SSN) into the new one, better adapted to emerging more liberal economy problems.
Additionally, the authors analysed some gender specific issues related to social security that are caused mainly by inequalities in the labour market. Differences of earnings between men and women in Russia caused by sector segregation account for seem to be more important than the gap between gender earnings attributed to the position. In Ukraine the main contributors to gross gender differential of log earnings (that equals to 32%) explained by our model are sector segregation and occupation.
The authors also pointed out to future policy challenges in the area of social security systems in both countries. The retirement reforms introduced recently are a step in the right direction, although their impact will not be felt for a number of years. Other reforms, with more immediate results, are necessary. Social safety nets should be made more efficient and social benefits should be better targeted.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Grzegorz Kula, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Magdalena Rokicka, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska
Published in 2009
As the process of population ageing in Europe carries on and the retirement age increases, the relationship between age and productivity becomes more and more important. One can be afraid that as the average age of the working individual goes up, the average level of productivity growth will go down, resulting in decreasing competitiveness of European economies. Our expectation is that due to serious differences in labor market structures between New Member States (NMS) (including current candidates) and the EU15, the former are the first order candidates to experience higher than average productivity costs of ageing in the near future. In this paper, one tries to examine this hypothesis.
The research strategy in this study has been based on the assumption that, in general, wages are correlated with productivity on the individual level and, as such, can be used as a proxy for productivity. Such an assumption is quite risky and can be easily criticized. Hence, based on the results of earlier studies, our main empirical analysis is limited to groups of workers for which one can expect that correlation between productivity and wages is still substantial.
It seems, that taking all the caveats in mind, the results of our analysis show that the relative productivity of older workers in the NMS is lower than in EU15.
Authored by: Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2007
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Authored by: Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Published in 2014
Does European economic integration create more inequality between domestic regions, or is the opposite true? We show that a general answer to this question does not exist, and that the outcome depends on the liberalisation scenario. In order to examine the impact of European and international integration on the regions, the paper develops a numerical simulation model with nine countries and 90 regions. Eastward extension of European integration is beneficial for old as well as new member countries, but within countries the impact varies across regions. Reduction in distance-related trade costs is particularly good for the European peripheries. Each liberalisation scenario has a distinct impact on the spatial income distribution, and there is no general rule telling that integration causes more or less agglomeration.
Authored by Arne Melchior
Published in 2009
The aim of this paper is to identify patterns of utilization of formal and informal long term care (LTC) across European countries and discuss possible determinants of demand for different types of care. Specific research questions are of the volume of different types of care and conditions under which care is undertaken. The latter include demographic factors, especially ageing of the society, health status and limitations caused by poor health, family settings and social networking. The analysis indicates substantial differences in obtaining LTC across European countries depending on the tradition and social protection model that determine availability of institutional care and provision of informal care. In the Nordic-type countries with high state responsibility and high provision of institutional care, informal care is of less importance and - if received - it is mostly care provided from on irregular basis from outside the family. With growing needs for care, formal settings come in. Countries of the continental Europe are less unified with high share of people using formal settings of care, but also combining formal and informal care. In Mediterranean countries provision of informal care, including personal care, plays much greater role than formal LTC.
Authored by: Agnieszka Sowa, Izabela Styczynska
Published in 2011
This paper analyzes the costs of (partial) institutional harmonization with the EU acquis which countries of the former USSR are expected to conduct under their Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with the EU and European Neighborhood Policy Action Plans. The public sector will have to take an effort of the transposition and adaptation of EU norms, as well as ensuring that they are complied with. Yet, the major part of the adjustment costs will fall on the private sector, as enterprises will have to make substantial investments to comply with new product requirements and business practices.
In this study we used the method of extrapolation of average costs for CEE countries’ harmonization with acquis to estimate the potential harmonization costs for the neighboring countries based on internationally comparative macroeconomic indicators like sectoral and total value added. This involved estimating the EU pre-accession support for the CEE countries by main areas as a percentage of the total or sectoral value added, determining the expected degree of limited harmonization in the ENP countries and estimating “coefficients of limited harmonization”, which was subsequently used for adjustment of the estimated cost of full harmonization.
Authored by: Veliko Dmitrov
This paper addresses the issue of the gender pay gap in the formal and informal labour markets in Poland. The authors verify the hypothesis of the existence of a gender pay gap in informal work and compare this gap with the one observed in the formal (registered) labour market.
Various analyses of available data show that size and characteristics of gender pay gap differ depending on the level of earnings. The inequality of earnings among unregistered women and men is more pronounced at the bottom tail of the earnings distribution. In the case of formal employees, inequality at the top of the distribution tends to be larger, confirming the existence of a ‘glass ceiling’.
The decomposition of the gender pay gap for selected quintiles indicates that it would be even higher if women had men’s characteristics.
A possible explanation of the results is the lack of minimum wage regulations in the informal market and the greater flexibility in agreement on wages in the higher quantiles.
Authored by: Magdalena Rokicka and Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska
Published in 2010
A global study is a core output of Youth4Job project and was done in close cooperation of all PPs. The study is not intended to analyse the situation or causes of youth unemployment - there is already an extensive literature in this regard, but trends or measures recently applied or initiated in order to fight against this problem which is severely affecting the European economy and social welfare.
Accelerating Change for Social Inclusion project. Call for Proven Innovations addressed to Long-term Unemployed. Definition of the key elements of the social problem and the solutions.
EuroPACE is an innovative financial mechanism inspired by an American building improvement initiative called Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE). The innovative character of the EuroPACE mechanism is that financing through EuroPACE is linked to the taxes paid on a property. In other words, the financing lent by a private investor is repaid through property taxes and other charges related to the buildings. EuroPACE is therefore in line with the EC’s objectives of (1) putting EE first, (2) contributing to the EU’s global leadership, and (3) empowering consumers to enable MS to reach their energy and climate targets for 2030. Last but not least, EuroPACE could contribute to the democratisation of the energy supply by offering cash-flow positive, decentralised EE solutions.
The EuroPACE mechanism engages several stakeholders in the process: local government, investors, equipment installers, and homeowners. To establish the EuroPACE programme, several conditions must be satisfied, each of which are relevant for different stakeholder at different stages of the implementation. For the purpose of this report, we divided these criteria into two categories: key criteria, which make the implementation possible, and complementary criteria, which make the implementation easier. For the time being, it is a pure hypothesis to be tested with potential EuroPACE implementation.
Similar to CASE Network Studies and Analyses 475 - True and false remedies for long time unemployment in Visegrad countries (20)
The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration.
Podręcznik został opracowany w celu przekazania trenerom i nauczycielom podstawowej wiedzy, która może być przydatna w prowadzeniu szkoleń promujących pracę rejestrowaną. Prezentuje on z jednej strony korzyści z pracy rejestrowanej, z drugiej – potencjalne koszty związane z pracą nierejestrowaną. W pierwszej kolejności informacje te przedstawiono w odniesieniu do pracowników najemnych (rozdział 2), podkreślając w sposób szczególny to, że negatywne konsekwencje pracy nierejestrowanej są ponoszone przez całe życie. Ze względu na specyficzną sytuację cudzoziemców pracujących w Polsce konsekwencje ponoszone przez tę grupę opisano oddzielnie (rozdział 3). Ponadto zaprezentowano skutki dotyczące pracodawców z szarej strefy z wyodrębnieniem tych, którzy zatrudniają cudzoziemców (rozdział 4). Uzupełnieniem przedstawionych informacji jest opis działań podejmowanych przez państwo w celu ograniczenia zjawiska pracy nierejestrowanej w Polsce (rozdział 5) oraz prowadzonych w Wielkiej Brytanii, czyli w kraju będącym liderem w walce z szarą strefą (rozdział 6).
European countries face a challenge related to the economic and social consequences of their societies’ aging. Specifically, pension systems must adjust to the coming changes, maintaining both financial stability, connected with equalizing inflows from premiums and spending on pensions, and simultaneously the sufficiency of benefits, protecting retirees against poverty and smoothing consumption over their lives, i.e. ensuring the ability to pay for consumption needs at each stage of life, regardless of income from labor.
One of the key instruments applied toward these goals is the retirement age. Formally it is a legally established boundary: once people have crossed it – on average – they significantly lose their ability to perform work (the so-called old-age risk). But since the 1970s, in many developed countries the retirement age has become an instrument of social and labor-market policy. Specifically, in the 1970s and ‘80s, an early retirement age was perceived as a solution allowing a reduction in the supply of labor, particularly among people with relatively low competencies who were approaching retirement age, which is called the lump of labor fallacy. It was often believed that people taking early retirement freed up jobs for the young. But a range of economic evidence shows that the number of jobs is not fixed, and those who retire don’t in fact free up jobs. On the contrary, because of higher spending by pension systems, labor costs rise, which limits the supply of jobs. In general, a good situation on the labor market supports employment of both the youngest and the oldest labor force participants. Additionally, a lower retirement age for women was maintained, which resulted to a high degree from cultural conditions and norms that are typical for traditional societies.
Until now, the banking sector has been one of the strong points of Poland’s economy. In contrast to banks in the U.S. and leading Western European economies, lenders in Poland came through the 2008 global financial crisis without a scratch, without needing state financial support. But in recent years the industry’s problems have been growing, creating a threat to economic growth and gains in living standards.
For an economy’s productivity to increase, funds can’t go to all companies evenly, and definitely shouldn’t go to those that are most lacking in funds, but to those that will use them most efficiently. This is true of total external financing, and thus funding both from the banking sector and from parabanks, the capital market and funds from public institutions. In Poland, in light of the relatively modest scale of the capital market, banks play a clearly dominant role in external financing of companies. This is why the author of this text focuses on the bank credit allocation efficiency.
The author points out that in the very near future, conditions will emerge in Poland which – as the experience of other countries shows – create a risk of reduced efficiency of credit allocation to business. Additionally, in Poland today, bank lending to companies is to a high degree being replaced by funds from state aid, which reduces the efficiency of allocation of external funds to companies (both loans and subsidies), as allocation of government subsidies is not usually based on efficiency. This decline in external financing allocation efficiency may slow, halt or even reverse the process, that has been uninterrupted for 28 years, of Poland’s convergence, i.e. the narrowing of the gap in living standards between Poland and the West.
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance.
This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of
individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.
Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is
stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland.
But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020).
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.
In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.
Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic.
A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Dla wielu rodaków europejskość Polski jest oczywista, trudno jest im nawet wyobrazić sobie, jak kształtowałyby się losy naszego kraju bez uczestnictwa w integracji europejskiej. Szczególnie młode pokolenie traktuje osiągnięty przez nas dzięki uczestnictwie w Unii ogromny postęp cywilizacyjny jako coś danego i naturalnego. Jednak świadomość tego, jaki był nasz punkt wyjścia, jaką przeszliśmy drogę i jak przyczyniły się do tego unijne działania oraz jakie wynikały z tego korzyści powinna nam stale towarzyszyć. Bez tej świadomości, starannego weryfikowania faktów i docenienia naszych osiągnięć grozi nam uleganie niesprawdzonym argumentom przeciwników integracji europejskiej i popełnienie nieodwracalnych błędów. Dla tych, którzy chcą poznać te fakty, przygotowany został raport "Nasza Europa. 15 lat Polski w Unii Europejskiej". Podjęto w nim ocenę 15 lat członkostwa Polski z perspektywy doświadczeń procesu integracji, z jego barierami i sukcesami, a także wyzwaniami przyszłości.
Raport jest wynikiem pracy zbiorowej licznych ekspertów z różnych dziedzin, od wielu lat analizujących wielowymiarowe efekty działania instytucji UE oraz współpracy z krajami członkowskimi na podstawie europejskich wartości i mechanizmów. Autorzy podsumowują korzyści członkostwa Polski w Unii Europejskiej na podstawie faktów, nie stroniąc jednakże od własnych ocen i refleksji.
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration.
This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991.
As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.
Estonia has Europe’s most transparent tax system (while Poland is second-to-last, in 35th place), and is also known for its pioneering approach to taxation of legal persons’ income. Since 2000, payers of Estonian corporate tax don’t pay tax on their profits as long as they don’t realize them. In principle, this approach should make access to capital easier, spark investment by companies and contribute to faster economic growth. Are these and other positive effects really noticeable in Estonia? Have other countries followed in this country’s footsteps? Would deferment of income tax be possible and beneficial for Poland? How would this affect revenue from tax on corporate profits? Would investors come to see Poland as a tax haven? Does the Estonian system limit tax avoidance and evasion, or actually the opposite? Is such a system fair? Are intermediate solutions possible, which would combine the strengths or limit the weaknesses of the classical and Estonian models of profit tax? These questions are discussed in the mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding no. 163, written by Dmitri Jegorov, deputy general secretary of the Estonian Finance Ministry, who directs the country’s tax and customs policy, Dr. Anna Leszczyłowska of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and Aleksander Łożykowski of the Warsaw School of Economics.
The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit.
Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD under contract TAXUD/2017/DE/329, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States” and serves as a follow-up to the six reports published between 2013 and 2018.
This Study contains new estimates of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap for 2017, as well as updated estimates for 2013-2016. As a novelty in this series of reports, so called “fast VAT Gap estimates” are also presented the year immediately preceding the analysis, namely for 2018. In addition, the study reports the results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). It also scrutinises the Policy Gap in 2017 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses.
More from CASE Center for Social and Economic Research (20)
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
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3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
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5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
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This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
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Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
3. The CASE Network is a group of economic and social research centers in Poland, Kyrgyzstan,
Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus. Organizations in the network regularly conduct joint
research and advisory projects. The research covers a wide spectrum of economic and social
issues, including economic effects of the European integration process, economic relations
between the EU and CIS, monetary policy and euro-accession, innovation and
competitiveness, and labour markets and social policy. The network aims to increase the range
and quality of economic research and information available to policy-makers and civil society,
and takes an active role in on-going debates on how to meet the economic challenges facing
the EU, post-transition countries and the global economy.
The CASE Network consists of:
- CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, est. 1991,
www.case-research.eu
- CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research – Kyrgyzstan, est. 1998,
http://case.jet.kg/
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE Ukraine, est. 1999,
www.case-ukraine.com.ua
- Foundation for Social and Economic Research CASE Moldova, est. 2003,
www.case.com.md
- CASE Belarus - Center for Social and Economic Research Belarus, est. 2007,
www.case-belarus.eu
- Center for Social and Economic Research CASE Georgia, est. 2011
4. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
Contents
1. Long term unemployment is very high among the uneducated ........................... 5
2. Causes of long term unemployment ....................................................................... 6
3. Government response has been dominated by benefit cuts ................................ 7
4. There is room for improvement in policy making .................................................. 9
5. Why should we still keep trying? .......................................................................... 10
6. What can be done? ................................................................................................. 11
Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 13
5. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... List of figures
Figure 1. Share of long term non-employed by level of education in 2012 ...................... 5
List of tables
Table 1. Participants and spending on Public Works Programmes and PES
staff in 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 8
Table 2. Possible measures to reduce long term unemployment by degree
of feasibility ......................................................................................................................... 13
Table A1. Policy measures affecting long term unemployment in Visegrad countries .... 14
Table A2. Design of public works programmes in 2013 ....................................................
15
6. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
Ágota Scharle is senior researcher at the Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis,
responsible for designing and implementing quantitative and qualitative evaluations of social
and employment policy interventions. She holds a Ph.D in Economics (University of Oxford)
and has over 15 years of professional experience in research and public administration. She
served as Head of research in the Hungarian Finance Ministry between 2005 and 2008. Her
main research interests are the effects of taxation and the welfare system on labour supply
and income redistribution. Her recent work includes an analysis of job quality in post Socialist
EU member states, and an edited book on the past twenty years of Hungarian employment
policy.
7. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... The author would like to thank Márton Csillag, Lucia Mýtna Kureková, Monika Maksim,
Anna Orosz, Filip Pertold, Izabela Styczyńska, and Balázs Váradi for their contributions.
8. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
1. Long term unemployment is very high among
the uneducated
Two in ten working age adults have been out of work for over a year in Visegrad
economies and long term joblessness is especially high among the uneducated.
The employment disadvantage of uneducated workers tends to be larger than in Western
European countries, and is especially grievous in Hungary, where a relatively large share
of the labour force has only completed primary school. The build-up of long term joblessness
may take its toll both on the individual and the economy. Beside the loss of human capital and
potentially harmful effects on health and mental health, the lower job search intensity of the
long term unemployed may lead to weaker wage adjustment and slower economic recovery
(OECD, 0 ). Long term non-employment also increases poverty and social exclusion, which
may further constrain economic growth (Easterly et al 006).
Figure 1. Share of long term non-employed by level of education in 2012
Source: Own calculations using the EU Labour Force Survey for 0 . Notes: Population aged
- 9. Share of population inactive or unemployed (excluding full time students) at the time of the survey
and also in the previous year. Primary includes ISCED levels 0 and , lower secondary includes ISCED
levels and c (less than years). Germany (DE) and Sweden (SE) are also included for reference.
The precise number is .7, including inactive persons as well. Own calculations using EU Labour
Force Survey (LFS) for age - 9, year 0 .
9. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... Reducing long term unemployment by activating the unemployed, increasing
the education level or preventing early retirement could potentially increase the total
employment rateby - % points in the Visegrad countries .
6
2. Causes of long term unemployment
Unemployment has risen in all EU Member States during the recent global crisis, however,
the extent to which these shocks translated into persistent unemployment has varied
considerably. In Eastern Europe, the problem has much deeper roots, which cannot
be changed but are nevertheless important to understand. The transition to market
economy led to a sharp drop in labour demand and especially in the demand for unskilled labour.
The policy response varied across the region: some governments sought to alleviate
the social impact of the initial shock by slowing down the privatisation process, others provided
early pensions to the unemployed or wage subsidies for firms that employ low productivity
workers. Balla et al ( 008) show that a combination of fast privatisation with high wage
subsidies (and low pensions/benefits) was the best to achieve low inequalities and high
aggregate employment. Hungary chose the worst combination of fast privatisation with high
benefits leading to persistently low employment, while the other Visegrad countries went
for the second best option of slow privatisation.
The gap between skilled and unskilled employment rates however has remained large
and persistent throughout the region, which suggests that technological change played a more
important role than welfare policies or indeed, any policy concerning low wage employment,
including taxation or minimum wage setting.
This is not to say that policies have no impact: well designed and coordinated employment,
economic and education policy can at least reduce the problem . Strengthening the public
employment service so that they can effectively monitor job search and tightening access
to early pensions and disability pensions can keep more people in the active labour force
and help contain welfare spending. A cautious minimum wage policy, wage subsidies
targeted to the low skilled, a stable business environment and a low administrative burden
on SMEs can all help to encourage labour demand for the unskilled. Improving
teaching methods in public education would help by reducing the share of the low skilled
A simple simulation based on a decomposition of differences in country level
employment rates shows that the Czech employment would be % point higher
if the employment probability of people aged - and -6 was similar to the Slovak case.
The Hungarian employment rate would be . % points higher if the share of the low educated was
as small as in the Czech Republic (own calculations using EU LFS for 0 ).
These policies have proved effective in developed market economies, and there is some evidence
of their effectiveness in the Visegrad countries as well (see Table ).
10. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
in the future labour force while training and retraining have a similar impact on the current
labour force.
7
3. Government response has been dominated by benefit
cuts
The government response to persistent long term unemployment and growing welfare costs
seems to have been rather similar across Visegrad countries. In the 990s, they made
repeated cuts in the amount, duration or the coverage (i.e. in the rules of eligibility)
of unemployment benefits. These cuts helped reduce welfare spending, but they had little
or no effect on labour supply while considerably increased poverty (Klugman et al 00 ).
Efforts to tighten access to early pension and disability schemes were more effective in raising
labour supply but these measures have only been made towards the late 990s.
Minimum wage rises in the late 990s or early 000s also aimed to increase labour supply,
with modest or even negative effects on employment, where the response of labour demand
proved stronger than expected . Incentives to boost labour demand were introduced only
in the early 000s, and were rarely targeted to the low skilled . Measures to improve
the quality and access to public education and employment rehabilitation services
or to tighten the job search requirements of welfare benefits have been applied at times,
but rarely with a sustained effort that could yield a lasting impact on labour market
exclusion6. None of the four countries have developed and implemented a sophisticated
profiling tool that would help the job centres to identify job seekers with a high risk of becoming
long term unemployed (Maksim and Sliwicki, 0 , Mýtna Kureková 0 ).
In the past ten years two diverging strategies have emerged. Czech and Polish
governments have sought to solve the problem by relegating the responsibility for dealing
with long term unemployment to the regional level and giving more autonomy to regional units
of the employment service. By contrast, Hungary and Slovakia have increasingly relied
on centrally subsidised public works. Neither of the two strategies have brought much
success.
This was the case in Hungary where the doubling of the minimum wage reduced low skilled
employment by about %, the effect being larger for small businesses, youth and in disadvantaged
regions (Kertesi and Köllő 2003).
Exceptions are the tax subsidies for the long term unemployed in Hungary ( 007- 0 ) and Slovakia
( 0 ), preferential tax rates (Czech Republic, Hungary until 99 ) and tax cuts (Slovakia 999- 000)
for SMEs. See more detail in Table A in the Appendix.
6 Notable exceptions are the Polish (from 999) and Hungarian (between 00 - 0 0) education reforms,
and the Slovak reform of the welfare system and ALMP (active labour market policies) ( 00 - 00 ).
11. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... Table 1. Participants and spending on Public Works Programmes and PES staff
in 2012
8
Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary
Average number of participants 70 6 669 968 6 0
% of registered unemployed . . . .
Government spending million EUR 0. 7. . .
% of GDP 0.0 0.0 0.07 0. 7
Spending on PES staff, % of GDP 0.08 0. 0.07 0.
Sources: Eurostat online, Mýtna Kureková et al ( 0 : 7); MPIPS ( 0 ), Scharle ( 0 ).
Notes: The figures for Poland include public works and socially useful work
Slovak figures as of December 0 , PES= public employment service.
In Poland, successive reforms in 99 , 000 and 00 created a highly decentralised system
in which the 16 regional labour market offices (Wojewódzki Urząd Pracy) allocate central
government funding among the local job centres according to their own regional strategies
and are also responsible for staff training at local (poviat level) job centres (Starega-Piasek
et al 006). In the Czech Republic regional autonomy was introduced in 0 ,
with the establishment of regional labour market offices that are responsible
for designing and implementing labour market programmes financed by the line ministry. This
was expected to improve cooperation with labour market stakeholders at the regional level.
However, both the Czech and the Polish system lack a strong financial or bureaucratic
incentive for regions to improve the efficiency of employment policy: the main source
of funding comes from the central government and does not depend on performance indicators.
A further constraint is that the regionalisation process has not entailed a systematic
development of local expertise in labour market analysis and programme design, which would
be a precondition for reaping the benefits of regionalisation (Mosley 0 ).
Hungary and Slovakia both established a large public works scheme that employs on average
- 0% of the long term unemployed population. Public works programmes are admittedly
not able to reduce long term unemployment, but provide temporary relief to jobless
households and may also help reduce social tensions at the local level (Köllő and Scharle 2012,
Mýtna Kurekova et al 0 ). When used on a large scale however, they are not only ineffective
but may even aggravate the problem (Harvan 0 ). Both the Hungarian and Slovak schemes
are prone to this risk, due to some perverse incentives in their administrative setup7.
7 The main features of public works systems in the region are summarised in Table A in the Appendix.
12. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
First, the inefficiency may arise from lock-in: when jobseekers can expect to be recalled
on public works, some may tend to make less effort to look for a job in the open labour market8.
Second, the per capita cost of public works is always higher than the cost of cash benefits
to the poor: managers, tools and materials must also be paid, not to mention corruption9.
Given the tight budget for employment policies, this implies that less resources are available
for the potentially more effective programmes, such as retraining.
Perverse incentives are especially strong in the Hungarian case, where public workers
are removed from the unemployment register and get their wage directly from the local
government, who are reimbursed from the central budget, with little supervision on how they
use these funds. This implies that local governments have a strong interest in managing
public works, which has led to an escalation of the costs and created a political straightjacket
for the central government. Any attempt by the central government to cut spending on public
works is likely to be met by a strong opposition from mayors, and will attract bad publicity
as well, since a mass layoff of public workers will immediately increase registered
unemployment.
9
4. There is room for improvement in policy making
Post-socialist economies inherited a public administration skilled in planning rather
than designing sophisticated incentives for independent actors in a competitive economy.
Government institutions were reorganised in the 990s and most Visegrad countries have
made further adjustments to increase bureaucratic efficiency, especially around the EU
accession. However, government decision making procedures do not yet (or at least
not systematically) follow the best practice of Scandinavian or British governments where
policy makers rely on monitoring results and impact evaluation of past measures, often
delivered by independent experts (Meyer-Sahling 009, Verheijen 006). The procedures
for consulting government experts across ministries, social partners and other
stakeholders also tend to be weak, making it difficult to implement complicated reforms,
especially in the areas where potential gains can be reaped only in the long run (Sirovatka
008, Váradi 0 ).
The political constraints to implementing reforms tend to be especially strong
in the policies that affect long term unemployment. First, such policies typically require
8 If public works jobs are full time, this further reduces job search activities as participants have less
time to look for a regular job. This effect is obviously more significant where there are job vacancies
in the area.
9 This is less of a concern in the Slovak case where public workers are not paid wages, only
a supplement to their benefits and organisational costs are usually financed by the municipalities.
13. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... complex deals with stake-holders, careful design, and thorough implementation
and monitoring (Bonoli 0 0). Second, some of the necessary measures, such as further cuts
in early pensions or public education reform would also hurt the middle class (the median
voter). Lastly, governments face a temptation to play on the strong anti-unemployed
prejudice of middle class voters and use disadvantaged groups as a scapegoat for the recession,
or more generally, for the slower-than-expected convergence to EU standards of living
and all the unexpected and unpleasant social consequences of the transition. A large Roma
minority tends to increase this temptation, and very likely have contributed to the expansion
of public works programmes in Hungary and Slovakia.
0
5. Why should we still keep trying?
Long term unemployment leads to poverty and when it affects large groups, it can fuel
social unrest and exclusion, with harmful consequences on society and economic growth
as well. This is because the lack of social cohesion tends to weaken political and economic
institutions (broadly defined to include trust and cooperation as well), and that has been shown
to slow down economic growth (Easterly et al 006). Hence, governments cannot afford
to overlook the problem of long-term unemployment nor can they hope that economic growth
alone would solve it. However, if governments can make some progress in implementing effective
measures and increase the employment rate of unskilled workers, this will have
the added benefit of easing social tensions and a decline in prejudiced attitudes against
the Roma.
Figure 2. Risk of poverty by level of access to work in the household in 2012
Source: EU SILC, Eurostat.
Note: In households with low access to work (low work
intensity) adults aged below 60 worked less than 0% of their total work potential during the past
year. High work intensity implies working %-8 % of the total work potential. Germany (De)
is included for reference.
14. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
6. What can be done?
There are no quick wins in employment policy. Effective policies (listed in Table )
are either complicated to implement, or bring slow results, or go against public attitudes,
or all of these. It is also important that most measures work best in combination: for example,
targeted wage subsidies to increase demand for the unskilled bring better results if supported
by tightened job search conditions for the long term unemployed that increase labour supply. Many
of the measures would require an initial investment in the public employment service
and the broader context of public administration in order to improve the quality of policy design
and implementation. This requires considerable political commitment as there are no short
term gains, though returns are high in the long run.
Though the task may seem daunting, all of the Visegrad countries have made progress
in implementing some of these policies, and each have some successful practice to share.
The Polish reform of secondary education was a major step towards preventing long term
unemployment by improving the literacy and numeracy skills of school-leavers, including those
who come from a disadvantaged background (BI 0 ).
Hungary introduced a carefully designed wage subsidy, which was targeted at the long
term unemployed with primary education or aged over 0. The subsidy was available to all
jobseekers meeting these simple criteria and was administered by the tax authority, who had
to issue the voucher without considering any other personal characteristics. This ruled out
any chance of corruption or cream skimming (selection of favoured candidates) by the job
centre, which often mars the effectiveness of traditional wage subsidy programmes. A recent
evaluation found that the subsidy significantly increased the reemployment chances
of long term unemployed men aged over 0 (Cseres-Gergely et al 0 ). If targeted narrowly
at the long term unemployed with multiple disadvantages, such subsidies can be cost-effective
and are much cheaper than across-the-board cuts in social security contributions.
The job search conditions of unemployment or other benefits have been tightened
in all the four countries, but the most comprehensive reform was implemented in Slovakia
in 2004 (Kalužná 2008). The reform formally merged employment services and social
services to create “one-stop shops” for the unemployed and social assistance beneficiaries. PES
staff was increased and some of the administration reallocated, which reduced the workload
of professional counsellors to more manageable levels by 006. Unemployment benefit
receipt was made conditional on providing a proof of active job search and visiting the local
15. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... job centre every two weeks (every week for long term unemployed). At the same time job
centres were obliged to draw up an Individual Action Plan for disadvantaged jobseekers and hire
employer specialists who proactively look for job vacancies. Several institutional and procedural
improvements were however not fully implemented and were revoked in the May 0 reform
of the Employment Services Act (Duell and Mýtna Kureková 0 ).
The Czech Republic established a network of agencies for social inclusion in Roma
localities to coordinate integration policies at the local level (MHR 009). Agencies assess local
needs in education, housing, social services and employment, establish partnerships
and provide training, supervision and in some cases funding for existing local service providers
to be able to effectively meet these needs. The long term unemployed often struggle with multiple
problems that create barriers to reemployment. By resolving indebtedness, poor housing,
family breakdown, addiction, etc, such agencies can support the efforts of public
employment services to activate hard-to-place jobseekers. Their work is especially useful
in villages where the municipality does not have the rsources or expertise to provide
effective services to the long term unemployed.
The devil is in the detail. The effectiveness of these and other measures for the long term
unemployed crucially depends on appropriate design and implementation. Getting these
right requires thorough and regular monitoring, piloting of new measures and adjustments,
preferably in randomised trials and impact evaluation based on a comparison of participants
and an appropriate control group. Given the similarities of the economic and institutional
context, Visegrad countries could also benefit from sharing and discussing the results of such
policy evaluations.
16. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
Table 2. Possible measures to reduce long term unemployment by degree of feasibility
+ feasible; - constrained; o varies depending on design and context
Inexpensive* or even
brings savings
Quick
returns
Not against
public
attitudes
Does not need
competent PES
Low risk of
corruption/
deadweight
Simple
to design
Will work
on its own
as well
Supporting
evidence
Targeted wage subsidies + + + + o o o Hu1
Tighten job search conditions, expand/ train PES
staff for casework with LTU + + + o + o o
Sk1
Hu2
Job trials and transit programmes + + o - o + - Hu3
Reduce access to early pensions/disability
+ + - - o o o Int1
and improve rehabilitation
Reduce admin burden on SMEs + - + + + - + Int2
(Targeted) cut in the minimum wage
o o - + + + + Int3
Retraining, second chance literacy training,
life-long learning
o o + - - - - Hu4
Strengthen the services of social work agencies
and their links with the PES Strengthen
the services of social work agencies and their
links with the PES
o - + - + - + Cz1
Long term complex local development program-mes
o - o + + - + Int4
Sources: Cz1: DIC 2012, Hu1: Cseres-Gergely et al 2013, Hu2: Cseres-Gergely 2012, Hu3: Györgyi and Mártonfi 2002, Hu4: Adamecz et al 2013, Int1:
Marie and Vall Castello 2012, OECD 2010, Int2: Yakovlev és Zhuravskaya 2007, Int3: Neumark and Wascher 2008, Int4: OECD 2013, Sk1: Csillag et al 2013.
See also recommendations in World Bank 2008, 2012.
Notes: * Initial costs are low compared to the other measures, not only comparing across active labour market programmes (ALMP). LTU= long term
unemployment, SME=small and medium size enterprises, PES=public employment service.
13
17. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... Appendix
Table A1. Policy measures affecting long term unemployment in Visegrad countries
Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia
Supply side incentives
to reduce excess supply
e.g. via early pensions
and disability pensions
989- 998 989- 99 989- 998 989- 998
Supply side financial
incentives: cutting level
or access to benefits
or increasing in-work
income* to increase
labour supply
99 - 996 (UI, SA)
998- 00 (min wage)
00 (UI, early pension)
006 (Increase
in ceiling of bottom PIT
bracket)
007 (SA)
008 (UI, flat rate PIT)
0 0 (UI, early retirement)
99 - 00 (UI, UA)
00 -0 (min wage)
008 (disability)
0 (UI, UA,
disability, early
pensions)
996 (UI)
997- 998 (min wage)
00 (early pension)
00 (UI)
00 (early pension)
00 (disability)
008 (early pension, min
wage)
0 (disability)
0 (min wage)
99 - 998 (UI)
000 (UI)
00 - 00 (UI,
UA)
000- 00 (min
wage)
007 (UI)
Supply side behavioural
incentives: tightening
behavioural conditions
00 (UI)
007 (SA)
0 (UI,UA)
00 (UI)
008 (disability)
009 (UA)
0 (UA)**
996 (UI)
00 (UI)
00 (UI, UA)
009 (UI)
998 (sanctions
upon voluntary
quit)
00 - 00 (UI,
UA)
Demand side incentives
for market employment
(SSC, wage costs, SME
admin costs)
00 - 006 (series
of general CIT cuts)***
006 (ease in business
registration)
009 (general cut in SSC)
009 - 0 0 (series
of general CIT cuts)
007 (targeted cut
in SSC)
009 (general cut
in SSC)
999 decreased taxes
for individual
entrepreneurs
00 (EPL reform:
increased flexibility
for small businesses)
00 general CIT cut
00 CIT cuts
Demand side spending
on public employment***
- 009 public works
0 public works
99 - public works 990s public
works
00 public
works
Improving services 009 IAP
0
Regionalisation
of PES
99 - 99
network of social
workers
00 education
reform
99 - 00 regionalisation
of PES
998 ALMP for fresh
graduates
999 education reform
00 standardisation of PES
services 006 IAP, enhanced
activation for LTU 009 IAP
00 IAP
00 ALMP
effectiveness
monitoring
0 ALMP
assessment
Notes: ALMP= active labour market programmes, CIT=corporate income tax, EPL= employment
protection legislation, IAP= Individual Action Plans. LTU=long term unemployed, PIT=personal
income tax, SA= recipients of (means tested) social assistance, SSC= social security contributions,
UI= insured unemployed, UA= jobseekers receiving unemployment assistance (after exhausting insured
unemployment benefit).
18. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
* In a few cases governments made an effort to reduce poverty by improving access to social transfers
or increasing their amount (for example in Hungary in 00 - 006). These are not included in the above
table.
** The behavioural conditions included potentially highly stigmatising elements as well, such as keeping
a tidy house and were left to the discretion of local governments.
*** We use a single term ‘public works’ to refer to all the different types and variants of public
employment especially created for unemployed persons (but excluding subsidies for the private
or non-profit sector).
19. 6
CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term... Table A2. Design of public works programmes in 2013
Programme Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Poland
Explicit aims Activate the unemployed, prevent losing contact with the labour market, prevent loss of work
habits, provide temporary relief to alleviate poverty
Latent aims Appease population that social
assistance recipients, many of whom are Roma,
have to work in order
to receive support.
None. Increase
employment rate, cut
spending
on social benefits
Discourage black work
Who can
participate?
All registered
unemployed, also reha-bilitation
allowance
recipients
Only minimum income
benefit recipients
Targeted at hard
to place groups,
including
disabled jobseekers
PW: LTU,
and other
disadvantaged
unemployed
SUW:
unemployed ineligible
for social benefit
Do participants stay
on the
unemployment
register?
No Yes No No
Working time
per week
0- 0 hours 0- 0 hours
(or more since January
0 )
Part-time PW: no regulation
SUW: max 0 hours
Maximum
duration (months)
8, renewal after 6
months (for municipal
contracts)
(renewable) PW:
SUW: 8
compensation
of public workers
Wage Higher benefit
(activation allowance
Wage Wage
Is it insured? * Fully (P, H, A, U) Partly (H)* Fully (P, H, A, U) Partly (P, H, U)
Who pays
the compensation
of workers?
Central
government
reimburses
employer via PES
(up to 00%
of wage costs)
Central
government pays the
higher benefit via PES
Central
government
via PES
PW:
0% local
government SUW:
partly local
government
Who pays the other
costs (organisation,
materials, etc)
Employer
but managers can be
public workers,
subsidies
are available
for other costs
Organiser** Employer Employer
Supervision of use of
government subsidy
Very weak Weak Weak Weak (Poorly
-designed
performance
indicators)
Notes: *Participants are covered by pension (P), health (H), accidents (A) and unemployment (U)
as well. Unemployment insurance would imply that they can earn eligibility for insured unemployment
benefit after a certain period of public works. In the Slovak case the entitlement for health insurance
is based on registered unemployed status not on participation in public works. LTU= long term
unemployed, PW= public works, SUW=socially useful work. ** In most cases this is the local
government, but can also be the PES, in which case other costs are covered by the central budget.
20. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 475 – True and false remedies for long term...
7
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