Asia's economic recovery faces several challenges including a weaker global recovery, rising commodity prices such as food and oil, and risks from capital inflows like currency appreciation and asset bubbles. Central banks in several Asian economies have responded by increasing policy interest rates to manage inflation and credit growth. Continued rebalancing of demand across the region also remains important to sustain recovery over the medium term.
This is a presentation for students and graduates to consider how social media can help hone their professional online self, develop digital skills for the work place and it's impact on recruitment practices.
The document discusses the economic outlook for Asia in light of the global financial crisis. It finds that while emerging Asia led global growth to date, the region is now more exposed and correlated to economic conditions in the US and advanced economies. A downturn in the US is estimated to slow growth in emerging Asia by 0.25-0.5 percentage points. However, country exposures vary widely within Asia. The outlook notes downside risks remain significant given increased trade and financial linkages with the US.
This is a presentation for students and graduates to consider how social media can help hone their professional online self, develop digital skills for the work place and it's impact on recruitment practices.
The document discusses the economic outlook for Asia in light of the global financial crisis. It finds that while emerging Asia led global growth to date, the region is now more exposed and correlated to economic conditions in the US and advanced economies. A downturn in the US is estimated to slow growth in emerging Asia by 0.25-0.5 percentage points. However, country exposures vary widely within Asia. The outlook notes downside risks remain significant given increased trade and financial linkages with the US.
This chapter discusses macroeconomic issues facing developing countries. It covers topics like income gaps between rich and poor nations, structural features of developing economies, debt crises, reforms in Latin America and Asia, and lessons from financial crises. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 is examined in depth, along with proposals to reform the international financial system to prevent future crises.
This document summarizes Albert Bandura's Bobo doll experiment, which demonstrated social learning theory. Bandura exposed children to an adult model aggressively beating up a Bobo doll. When the children were then given an opportunity to play, the children who observed the aggressive model were more likely to exhibit aggressive behaviors towards the toys than children who did not observe aggression. Through this experiment, Bandura showed that people can learn new behaviors by observing others, supporting his theory of social learning.
Career planning presentation for Computer Networks Tahira Majothi
This document provides guidance on effective career planning for computer networks degrees. It discusses conducting self-reflection, researching career options and the IT job market, exploring employers through various sources, gaining work experience, attending career fairs, using social media professionally, considering graduate schemes, tailoring CVs and online profiles to employers, and putting career plans into action. Key points are made that the IT job market is growing and computer science graduates have higher than average full-time employment rates. Students are directed to campus career services and external resources for additional support and opportunities.
Career planning presentation for Undergraduate Psychology studentsTahira Majothi
This document provides an overview of career planning options for psychology graduates. It discusses typical career paths, such as working in health, education, business, and research fields. The workshop aims to help students understand the value of their degree, explore potential careers, and identify sources of career information. It promotes self-awareness as key to career success and outlines a career planning process. This includes knowing yourself, exploring opportunities, deciding on goals, and developing the skills to pursue them. Students are encouraged to gain work or volunteering experience in fields that interest them to help decide on their career path.
В нашем проекте «Врач XXI века» мы предлагаем новую программу «Овладение алгоритмом формирования программ исцеляющей терапии и профилактики». Восемь счастливых четвергов – так это выглядит для врача благодаря инновационной технологии коучинга. В итоге - получение официального сертификата о повышении квалификации в соответствии с лицензией Института на постдипломное образование врачей.
Navigating the Storm: The Impact of the Economic Crisis and Strategic Respons...Ga S
- The global economic crisis has severely impacted GDP growth rates and consumer spending worldwide. The telecom industry is seeing declining revenues across content, media, devices and services.
- Countries in the Middle East region are being unevenly impacted based on their economic diversification and dependence on oil exports. Consumer and business confidence has sharply fallen across the region.
- Telecom operators face declining revenues and will need balanced strategies including cost optimization, pricing changes, focusing on in-demand services, and M&A to navigate the crisis and pursue growth opportunities.
1) The document discusses the growing middle class in Pakistan and its implications. It analyzes data showing rising GDP growth and consumption expenditures, indicating an expanding middle class.
2) The middle class makes up around 30-40% of Pakistan's population and is predominantly urban-based, working in services, commerce, education and government.
3) An expanding middle class drives domestic demand but also expects economic opportunities and public services like education. Pakistan needs reforms to unlock the potential of its growing middle class.
1) The document discusses Asia's economic growth and integration over the past few decades as well as potential challenges going forward, including decoupling from other regions.
2) It notes that Asia's share of global GDP growth has significantly increased since the 1970s as emerging Asian economies have rapidly developed.
3) However, ongoing trade tensions and a potential decoupling of certain countries from integrated global supply chains could pose economic risks for Asia in the future.
1) The document discusses Asia's economic growth and integration over the past few decades as well as potential challenges going forward, including decoupling from other regions.
2) It notes that Asia's share of global GDP growth has significantly increased since the 1970s as emerging Asian economies have rapidly developed.
3) However, ongoing trade tensions and a potential decoupling of certain countries from integrated global supply chains could pose economic risks for Asia in the future.
Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia?University of Adelaide
Professor Graeme Hugo presents the fourth installment of the Science Seminar Series entitled Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia
The document discusses Pak Suzuki's performance and future prospects. It summarizes Pak Suzuki's sales volumes, revenues, current ratio, quick ratio, return on investment, and return on equity over the past three years. It also outlines Pak Suzuki's vision, mission, target demographics, and lifestyle of its owners.
Think Canada! Why you should commercialize technology with Canadian partners.Michael Willmott
The document provides an overview of Canada's strong economic relationship with Minnesota and reasons for doing business with Canada. Some key points:
- Canada is a major trading partner for Minnesota, with over $21 billion in bilateral trade in 2008. Over 140,000 Minnesota jobs are supported by Canada-US trade.
- Canada has a relatively strong economy and superior employment growth compared to other G7 countries. It also has sound fiscal management and leading financial institutions.
- Canada offers a strong business environment for entrepreneurs with low business costs, favorable tax rates, and relatively few regulatory hurdles to starting a business.
- Canada has a highly educated workforce with many qualified engineers and provides generous incentives for research and
The document discusses the slowing economic growth in the Black Sea region due to global headwinds, particularly weak growth in Europe. It notes that while policy responses have helped, growth has sharply slowed across the Black Sea countries in 2012 and long-term growth remains uncertain. The region faces risks from balance sheet vulnerabilities, currency pressures, and constrained policy space compared to other emerging markets.
This document discusses entrepreneurship and early stage capital challenges. It notes that while about half a million startups are formed in the US each year, creating all net new jobs, most struggle to survive the "valley of death" between seed funding and later stage capital. Venture capital funds are now too large for most startups, so angels have become important early investors, though South Carolina lags in VC and angel funding per capita. The Upstate Capital Angel Network (UCAN) aims to help fill this gap by investing in scalable Southeast startups, though barriers around talent, technology costs, and regulations still exist. The presentation closes by praising entrepreneurs for the risks and sacrifices they take to drive economic growth.
Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist/California Association of Realtors presents his annual report to the California Desert Association of Realtors.
The Palm Springs desert area (Coachella Valley) housing market is on the upswing once again.
Leslie Appleton Young, CAR Chief Economist, spoke at the Real Living Lifestyles New Year, New You Real Estate Symposium on January 31, 2012. She shared her economic forecast for the coming year, and all of the latest charts and stats on the California economy.
1) The document discusses the investment opportunity in small cap stocks in India. It notes that small caps have outperformed other indices like Sensex and midcaps over the last 2 years.
2) Small caps still trade at lower valuations like P/E compared to large caps, despite examples provided of small caps growing to become large caps over time, creating significant wealth.
3) Success in small cap investing is dependent on strong stock selection in high growth sectors and companies with scalable business models and passionate management.
1) The document discusses the opportunity for investing in small cap companies in India.
2) Small caps have outperformed other indices like Sensex and midcaps over the last 2 years and still trade at lower valuations.
3) Examples are given of companies that started as small caps and grew to become large caps, delivering substantial returns over many years.
4) Successful small cap investing relies on careful stock selection focusing on growth potential, emerging sectors, and passionate management.
This chapter discusses macroeconomic issues facing developing countries. It covers topics like income gaps between rich and poor nations, structural features of developing economies, debt crises, reforms in Latin America and Asia, and lessons from financial crises. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 is examined in depth, along with proposals to reform the international financial system to prevent future crises.
This document summarizes Albert Bandura's Bobo doll experiment, which demonstrated social learning theory. Bandura exposed children to an adult model aggressively beating up a Bobo doll. When the children were then given an opportunity to play, the children who observed the aggressive model were more likely to exhibit aggressive behaviors towards the toys than children who did not observe aggression. Through this experiment, Bandura showed that people can learn new behaviors by observing others, supporting his theory of social learning.
Career planning presentation for Computer Networks Tahira Majothi
This document provides guidance on effective career planning for computer networks degrees. It discusses conducting self-reflection, researching career options and the IT job market, exploring employers through various sources, gaining work experience, attending career fairs, using social media professionally, considering graduate schemes, tailoring CVs and online profiles to employers, and putting career plans into action. Key points are made that the IT job market is growing and computer science graduates have higher than average full-time employment rates. Students are directed to campus career services and external resources for additional support and opportunities.
Career planning presentation for Undergraduate Psychology studentsTahira Majothi
This document provides an overview of career planning options for psychology graduates. It discusses typical career paths, such as working in health, education, business, and research fields. The workshop aims to help students understand the value of their degree, explore potential careers, and identify sources of career information. It promotes self-awareness as key to career success and outlines a career planning process. This includes knowing yourself, exploring opportunities, deciding on goals, and developing the skills to pursue them. Students are encouraged to gain work or volunteering experience in fields that interest them to help decide on their career path.
В нашем проекте «Врач XXI века» мы предлагаем новую программу «Овладение алгоритмом формирования программ исцеляющей терапии и профилактики». Восемь счастливых четвергов – так это выглядит для врача благодаря инновационной технологии коучинга. В итоге - получение официального сертификата о повышении квалификации в соответствии с лицензией Института на постдипломное образование врачей.
Navigating the Storm: The Impact of the Economic Crisis and Strategic Respons...Ga S
- The global economic crisis has severely impacted GDP growth rates and consumer spending worldwide. The telecom industry is seeing declining revenues across content, media, devices and services.
- Countries in the Middle East region are being unevenly impacted based on their economic diversification and dependence on oil exports. Consumer and business confidence has sharply fallen across the region.
- Telecom operators face declining revenues and will need balanced strategies including cost optimization, pricing changes, focusing on in-demand services, and M&A to navigate the crisis and pursue growth opportunities.
1) The document discusses the growing middle class in Pakistan and its implications. It analyzes data showing rising GDP growth and consumption expenditures, indicating an expanding middle class.
2) The middle class makes up around 30-40% of Pakistan's population and is predominantly urban-based, working in services, commerce, education and government.
3) An expanding middle class drives domestic demand but also expects economic opportunities and public services like education. Pakistan needs reforms to unlock the potential of its growing middle class.
1) The document discusses Asia's economic growth and integration over the past few decades as well as potential challenges going forward, including decoupling from other regions.
2) It notes that Asia's share of global GDP growth has significantly increased since the 1970s as emerging Asian economies have rapidly developed.
3) However, ongoing trade tensions and a potential decoupling of certain countries from integrated global supply chains could pose economic risks for Asia in the future.
1) The document discusses Asia's economic growth and integration over the past few decades as well as potential challenges going forward, including decoupling from other regions.
2) It notes that Asia's share of global GDP growth has significantly increased since the 1970s as emerging Asian economies have rapidly developed.
3) However, ongoing trade tensions and a potential decoupling of certain countries from integrated global supply chains could pose economic risks for Asia in the future.
Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia?University of Adelaide
Professor Graeme Hugo presents the fourth installment of the Science Seminar Series entitled Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia
The document discusses Pak Suzuki's performance and future prospects. It summarizes Pak Suzuki's sales volumes, revenues, current ratio, quick ratio, return on investment, and return on equity over the past three years. It also outlines Pak Suzuki's vision, mission, target demographics, and lifestyle of its owners.
Think Canada! Why you should commercialize technology with Canadian partners.Michael Willmott
The document provides an overview of Canada's strong economic relationship with Minnesota and reasons for doing business with Canada. Some key points:
- Canada is a major trading partner for Minnesota, with over $21 billion in bilateral trade in 2008. Over 140,000 Minnesota jobs are supported by Canada-US trade.
- Canada has a relatively strong economy and superior employment growth compared to other G7 countries. It also has sound fiscal management and leading financial institutions.
- Canada offers a strong business environment for entrepreneurs with low business costs, favorable tax rates, and relatively few regulatory hurdles to starting a business.
- Canada has a highly educated workforce with many qualified engineers and provides generous incentives for research and
The document discusses the slowing economic growth in the Black Sea region due to global headwinds, particularly weak growth in Europe. It notes that while policy responses have helped, growth has sharply slowed across the Black Sea countries in 2012 and long-term growth remains uncertain. The region faces risks from balance sheet vulnerabilities, currency pressures, and constrained policy space compared to other emerging markets.
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Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist/California Association of Realtors presents his annual report to the California Desert Association of Realtors.
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Leslie Appleton Young, CAR Chief Economist, spoke at the Real Living Lifestyles New Year, New You Real Estate Symposium on January 31, 2012. She shared her economic forecast for the coming year, and all of the latest charts and stats on the California economy.
1) The document discusses the investment opportunity in small cap stocks in India. It notes that small caps have outperformed other indices like Sensex and midcaps over the last 2 years.
2) Small caps still trade at lower valuations like P/E compared to large caps, despite examples provided of small caps growing to become large caps over time, creating significant wealth.
3) Success in small cap investing is dependent on strong stock selection in high growth sectors and companies with scalable business models and passionate management.
1) The document discusses the opportunity for investing in small cap companies in India.
2) Small caps have outperformed other indices like Sensex and midcaps over the last 2 years and still trade at lower valuations.
3) Examples are given of companies that started as small caps and grew to become large caps, delivering substantial returns over many years.
4) Successful small cap investing relies on careful stock selection focusing on growth potential, emerging sectors, and passionate management.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
Andrew Sentence: The "New Normal" for the global economyNuffield Trust
- The global economy is expanding but the recovery is uneven, with growth in Asia outpacing the EU and US.
- This recovery differs from previous recoveries in the 1980s and 1990s with slower growth across advanced and emerging economies.
- Asia-Pacific has become the dominant global economic region while UK growth has disappointed, averaging only 1.3% since 2009.
The document discusses the Indian economy and trends in Asian economies. It provides an overview of India's economic transition to a services-driven economy, with services now accounting for 57% of GDP. It summarizes growth rates for key sectors in India such as agriculture, industry, and services between 2005-2011. It also discusses the impacts of the global recession of 2008-2009 on Asian economies and indicators of recovery. Overall, it analyzes economic growth trends and the structure of economies across Asia.
By Michael Johnson, Sam Benin, Xinshen Diao, and Liangzhi You.
Presented at the ASTI-FARA conference Agricultural R&D: Investing in Africa's Future: Analyzing Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities - Accra, Ghana on December 5-7, 2011. http://www.asti.cgiar.org/2011conf
This document summarizes the state of the Indian economy in 2012. It notes that global growth estimates have been revised downward. While the US and European economies have not fully recovered from recession, India's growth is projected to slow as well, impacted by weakness abroad. Exports from India are declining, particularly to Europe, ASEAN and Northeast Asia. Capital inflows to India have also been volatile, with FDI steadier than portfolio flows. The rupee has begun depreciating against the dollar after gaining strength earlier in 2012.
The economic outlook for the sector - Andrew SentanceCFG
The document discusses the implications of a "new normal" economy for charities. It suggests that since the 2008 financial crisis, Western economies will experience prolonged disappointing growth, volatility, and high commodity prices (Phase 1). However, a clearer growth dynamic may emerge in developing countries and later in Western countries in Phase 2. For charities, this means a challenging fundraising climate with economic uncertainty, but also opportunities to help stressed societies. Charities need resilience, good management, and risk assessment to navigate this environment.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Christian Menegatti who is the MD & Head of Global Economic Research at Roubini Global Economics shared her presentation entitled "Bracing for Balance Sheet Repair Mode: Pinpointing Growth Drivers amidst a Global Deleveraging Landscape" at the marcus evans Elite Summit.
Join the November 2014 Summit along with leading European family offices and global asset managers in an intimate environment for a focused discussion of key new drivers shaping wealth management strategies today.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
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4. Key issues facing Asia’s recovery
The multi-speed global recovery is set to continue.
Asia is expected to continue leading the global
recovery, but at a more moderate pace.
The tragic events in Japan, earthquake followed by
tsunami, add to uncertainty in Asia.
The debt crisis in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and
Spain undermines growth in the Eurozone.
US debt ceilings: political wrangling in
Washington. This will have negative effect on the
global economy. 4
5. Key issues facing Asia’s recovery
Navigating opposing risks will be challenging:
Weaker global recovery and stronger
commodity prices.
The signs of overheating are broadening.
The withdrawal of fiscal stimulus has been
slow.
Quantitative Easing (QE) 2 resulted in capital
inflows into Asia in the first half of 2011.
5
6. Key issues facing Asia’s recovery
Now, foreign capital inflows have moderated, as
has the growth in asset valuations.
However credit dynamics remain very strong.
Over the medium-term, rebalancing growth
remains the key challenge.
6
7. The multispeed recovery is set to continue with Asia
increasingly propelling global growth
World GDP Growth Projection Contributions to Global Growth
(Year-on-year, in percent; Jan. WEO update) (In percentage points)
2010
2011
2012
Advanced economies
Emerging Asia
Other EM and developing countries
6 Global growth (3-year moving average)
5
World 5.0 4.4 4.5
4
3
Advanced economies 3.0 2.5 2.5
2
Emerging and 1
Developing 7.1 6.5 6.5
economies 0
-1
Asia 8.2 6.8 6.8
1988
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
7
Source: IMF
8. Asia is expected to continue leading the global
recovery, but at a more moderate pace
Asia: Real GDP Growth
(y/y; percent); as of the January 2011 WEO update
2009 2010 2011 2012
Asia (including Australia and New Zealand) 3.5 8.2 6.8 6.8
Industrial Asia -4.9 4.0 1.9 2.0
Japan -6.3 4.3 1.6 1.8
Emerging Asia 5.9 9.4 8.1 8.0
China 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.5
India 5.7 9.7 8.4 8.0
NIEs -0.9 8.3 4.7 4.3
Korea 0.2 6.1 4.5 4.2
Singapore -1.3 15.0 4.7 4.4
Taiwan Province of China -1.9 10.2 4.9 4.6
ASEAN-5 1.7 6.7 5.5 5.7
Indonesia 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.5
Malaysia -1.7 6.7 5.3 5.2
Philippines 1.1 7.0 5.0 5.0
Thailand -2.2 7.5 4.0 4.5
Vietnam 5.3 6.8 6.8 7.0
Other ASEAN
Brunei -1.8 1.0 1.5 1.9
Cambodia 0.1 6.0 6.0 6.5
Lao PDR 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.3
Source: IMF 8
Myanmar 4.9 5.3 5.0 5.0
9. II. Downside Risks to Asia’s
Recovery
1. Rising commodity and food prices
2. Inflation
3. Capital inflows led to exchange rate appreciation and
asset bubbles.
4. Balancing growth is a challenge. 9
10. Risk 1: Navigating opposing risks will be challenging:
Weaker global recovery and stronger commodity prices…
Asia: GDP Growth Food Price: Global versus EM Asia
(Central forecast and 50, 70, and 90 percent
confidence intervals; in percent) (Year-on-year percent change)
Global food price (LHS)
50 20
EM Asia food price (RHS)
10
40 16
9 Central forecast
30 12
8
7 20 8
6 10 4
5 0 0
4
-10 -4
3
-20 -8
2 50 percent confidence interval
70 percent confidence interval -30 -12
1
90 percent confidence interval
2006:Q1
2007:Q1
2008:Q1
2009:Q1
2010:Q1
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10
Source: IMF
11. Risk 1: Key staples pushing
region’s food prices up
Region’s food price inflation
Pushed by prices of rice and wheat
And other domestic food items
From June 2010 to Feb 2011
International rice price rose by around 20%; while wheat prices
doubled
Partly due to Thailand and Viet Nam release of ample supplies from
their stocks to mitigate price pressure
12. Risk 1: Food dominates region’s CPIs
Food Weights in Consumer Price Index
(%)
Economy Share
Cambodia1 44.8
China, People’s Rep. of2 30.2
Hong Kong, China 26.7
Indonesia 3 36.2
Korea, Rep. of 1 14.0
Malaysia1 31.4
Philippines 46.6
Singapore1 22.1
Thailand1 33.0
Viet Nam 39.9
1Includesnon-alcoholic beverages. 2Includes beverages. 3Includes beverages
and tobacco.
Source: Asian Development Bank. March 2011. "Global Food Price Inflation and
Developing Asia" (Forthcoming).
Source: ADB 12
13. Risk 1: larger than anticipated rise
in oil prices
Global Commodity Prices Oil Price Prospects
(January 2005 = 100) (In U.S. dollars per barrel)
Food 95% confidence interval
Metal
350 86% confidence interval
Energy 250
Agricultural raw materials 68% confidence interval
300 Futures
200
250
150
200
100
150
50
100
50 0 2008
2013
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-11
Jan-05
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: IMF 13 Note: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price
futures information used.
15. Risk 2: Inflation is on the rise
Figure XX: Regional Headline Inflation (y-o-y, %)
12 11.8
People's Republic of China
9 8.7
ASEAN-4 plus Viet Nam
5.3
6 6.0 4.9
3 4.5
NIE-3 2.3
0.9
0 0.0
Japan
-2.2
-3
Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Feb-
Jan-
07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
ASEAN-4 = Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand; NIE-3 = Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Singapore; y-o-y = year-on-year.
Source: ADB staff calculations based on CEIC data.
Source: OREI
16. Risks 3: Capital inflows led to currency appreciation
and importance of Europe and United States for
Asia’s exports
EM Asia: Capital Inflow and Selected Asia: Exports to U.S. and Europe
Global Risk Aversion (In percent of total exports of goods)
25 Europe
100 Risk aversion (VIX)
United States
Capital inflows to EM Asia (billions of 20
80 U.S. dollars)
60 15
40
10
20
0 5
-20
0
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
Korea
China
Singapore
Thailand
Japan
-40
2007:Q4
2008:Q1
2008:Q2
2008:Q3
2008:Q4
2009:Q1
2009:Q2
2009:Q3
2009:Q4
2010:Q1
2010:Q2
2010:Q3
2010:Q4
Source: IMF 16
17. Risk 4: a few signs of asset market pressures
Asia: Pass-through from Domestic Food and Selected Asia: Property Prices
Energy Prices to Core Inflation 1 (Year-on-year change, in percent)
(In percentage points)
40
0.4
Food Energy 30
0.3 20
10
0.2 0
-10
0.1
-20 China
Hong Kong SAR
0.0 -30 Singapore
Philippines
New Zealand
Vietnam
Malaysia
Australia
Indonesia
Japan
India
Thailand
Korea
Province of China
Singapore
Hong Kong SAR
China
Taiwan
Taiwan Province of China
-40
Korea
-50
2007:Q1
2007:Q2
2007:Q3
2007:Q4
2008:Q1
2008:Q2
2008:Q3
2008:Q4
2009:Q1
2009:Q2
2009:Q3
2009:Q4
2010:Q1
2010:Q2
2010:Q3
2010:Q4
1 Impact of change in food and energy prices by 1 percent. 17
Wholesale prices used for India.
18. Risk 4: Rebalancing of demand remains a
challenge
Selected Asia: Current Account Balances Global Current Account Balances
(In percent of GDP) (In percent of world GDP)
2002-07 2010 2011 (Proj.) 2012 (Proj.) Rest of the world Emerging Asia
Japan and Germany Oil exporters
8 China United States
3
Projections
7
2
6
5 1
4 0
3 -1
2
-2
1 Global discrepancy
-3
0
2000
2004
2005
2009
2010
2014
2015
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2011
2012
2013
Source: IMF
Japan NIEs ASEAN-5 China 18
20. Policy response 1: Increasing policy rates
Figure XX: Policy Rates 1—Selected Economies
Policy Rates1—Selected Economies (% per annum)
(% per annum)
10 9.5
Indonesia
8 7.5
6.75
6 Philippines
5.00
Republic of Korea 4.25
4
3.00
Thailand Malaysia 2.75
2
0.5 2.50
Japan
0
1-Jan- 2-Jun- 1-Nov- 1-Apr- 31-Aug- 30-Jan- 1-Jul-09 30-Nov- 1-May- 30-Sep- 1-Mar-
1-Jul- 4-Apr-
07 07 07 08 08 09 09 09 10 10 1111
1
BI 1rate (Indonesia); unsecured overnight call rate rate (Japan); Korea base rate (Republic of Korea); overnight policy(Malaysia); reverse repurchase rate
BI rate (Indonesia); unsecured overnight call (Japan); Korea base rate (Republic of Korea); overnight policy rate rate (Malaysia); reverse
(Philippines); and 1-day repo rate and 1-day repo rate (Thailand).
repurchase rate (Philippines); (Thailand).
20
Source: Bloomberg andand Datastream.
Source: Bloomberg Datastream. Source: ADB
21. Policy response 1: Rate increase is smaller than
the cut during the crisis
Policy Rate Movements1
(percentage1 points)
Figure XX: Policy Rate Movements (percentage points)
8
Cuts in 2008—2009
7
Hikes in 2010—2011
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2
Viet Nam Korea, Rep. of Indonesia Thailand China, Philippines Malaysia Japan
People's Rep.
1One year lending rate (People's Republic of China); BI Rate (Indonesia); prime rate (Viet Nam); unsecured overnight call rate (Japan); Korea base rate
of
(Republic of Korea); overnight policy rate (Malaysia); reverse repurchase (repo) rate (Philippines); and one-day repo rate (Thailand).
2Policy rate hikes started in December 2009.
1 Source: ADB
One year lending rate (People's Republic of China); BI Rate (Indonesia); prime rate (Viet Nam); unsecured overnight call rate (Japan); Korea base rate
Source: Bloomberg and Datastream. 21
(Republic of Korea); overnight policy rate (Malaysia); reverse repurchase (repo) rate (Philippines); and one-day repo rate (Thailand).
22. Policy response 2: Currency appreciation, except
Vietnamese dong
Figure XX: Change Exchange Rate against US dollar (%)1 (%)
Change in in Exchange Rate against US dollar 1
Indonesian rupiah 2010
Singapore dollar 2011 YTD
Malaysian ringgit
Japanese yen
Philippine peso
2
PRC renminbi
Korean won
Hong Kong dollar
Thai baht
Vietnamese dong
-8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
1
Year-to-date (YTD) figures based on 21 Mar 2011closing. Negative values indicate depreciation.
1Year-to-date (YTD) figures based on 21 Mar 2011 closing. Negative values indicate depreciation.
2
PRC = People's Republic of China.
2PRC = People's Republic of China.
Source: OREI staff calculations based on Reuters data. 22
Source: OREI staff calculations based on Reuters data. Source: ADB
23. Policy Response 3: Accumulating
International Reserves
International Reserves (billion USD)
2.9
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.6
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7 0.7
0.5 0.5
International reserves increased from 0.5 billion in 2000 to USD1
billion in 2006, then reached USD2.9 billion in May 2011.
24. Policy Response 4: Macro-prudential measures
Measures Implemented in
Rein in short-term foreign currency borrowing by Korea
commercial banks
Lengthen maturity structure of central bank’s external Indonesia
liabilities and make one-month certificate less liquid
Limits placed on foreign investors’ access to time deposits Taiwan Province of China
Liberalization of capital outflows Thailand, Philippines,
Malaysia
Removal of tax exemptions for foreign investment in Thailand, Korea
government bonds
Rules to reduce risks of bank funding strains New Zealand, Korea
Reserve requirements on foreign currency and Indonesia, Taiwan Province
nonresident accounts of China
24
25. Policy Response 5: Structural policies to
be long-term solutions
• Enhance productivity and competitiveness to reduce
supply bottlenecks
• Reform labor and goods markets to increase
flexibility when responding to aggregate supply
shocks
• Remove policy distortions―such as general subsidies
& tariffs—to better reflect supply and demand
• Improve market integration
25
26. Policy Response 5: Longer-term policy
responses
Increase Food and Energy Cushioning the social
Supply implications
• Increase agricultural • Strengthening social
productivity (investment safety nets
in technology, land
development, and
irrigation
• Investments in energy
efficiency and a
concerted switch to
renewable sources of
power
26
27. Conclusion 1:
Asia: Overheating or Smooth Landing?
Inflation: Accelerating headline inflation and
spilling over to core inflation.
Credit Growth and Capital Flows: Credit
growth accelerating; capital inflows
moderating; domestic overheating pressures.
Monetary Policy: Low real rates, closed or
positive output gaps; need to tighten policy.
Fiscal and Exchange Rate Policies: Pace of
fiscal withdrawal can be quickened; exchange
rate appreciation. 27
28. Conclusions 2
Asia’s growth outlook remains strong but overheating
pressures have surfaced in a number of regional
economies.
Dealing with these pressures requires tightening fiscal
stances and stronger currencies. Higher policy interest
rates should also be part of the policy mix.
In addition to dealing with overheating
risks, policymakers need to make sure that growth will be
balanced and inclusive.
28
29. Conclusion 3
The multi-speed global recovery is set to continue, and
Asian economies will remain in the lead
As old risks recede, new ones are on the horizon
Nevertheless, overheating pressures imply further
tightening of macroeconomic policies
Capital inflows need to be managed carefully, but
pressures have moderated in recent months
Over the medium-term, rebalancing growth remains the
key challenge 29
Let me begin with the global picture.Thus far, economic recovery is proceeding broadly as we expected at the time of the October WEO—actually slightly better. Global activity is forecast to expand by 5 percent in 2010 and 4½ percent in 2011 (left chart), about 0.2 percentage points above our October forecasts for both years, and again at 4½ percent in 2012. Large differences are expected to persist between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies. As the chart on the middle shows, the recovery has been especially sluggish in advanced economies, compared with recoveries from previous synchronized slowdowns, and considering that these economies are emerging from the deepest recession since World War II. We expect the recovery there to remain weak, with growth projected to be 3 percent in 2010 and 2½ percent in both 2011 and 2012.At the same time, the output of emerging and developing economies is projected to expand at strong rates. Emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are expected to contribute to global growth more this time than during the recoveries from the synchronized slowdowns of previous decades (right chart).
While the near-term outlook for Asia’s growth is strong, navigating emerging overheating pressures, will be challenging in light of two opposing risks.On one side, if financial system or fiscal pressures in advanced economies intensify and spill over to the real economy, Asia is likely to be greatly affected via the trade channel.Indeed, Asia’s dependence on demand from outside the region has increased over time (LHS). In particular, a weaker than expected investment cycle in the US and other advanced economies could hurt Asian high tech exports. Financial spillovers from advanced countries to Asian banks, firms, and sovereigns are also a source of concern, although they appear to be generally manageable.On the other side, further increases in global commodity prices, especially of food, could exert stronger pressures on domestic food prices than already experienced in Asia (RHS). In addition to the direct impact on the poorest segment of the population, higher commodity prices could feed through other prices as well. This could force a stronger than expected reaction from policy makers, in order to prevent an excessive and more persistent rise in generalized inflation.
……along with increased prices of key staples, domestic food price inflation increasedInternational prices of rice and wheat— two key staples produced and consumed in developing Asia—together with increases in other domestic food items, have translated to the region’s domestic food price inflation in January 2011 of about 10%June 2010-Feb 2011: International rice price rose by 16.8%; while wheat prices almost doubled partly due to Thailand and Viet Nam release of ample supplies from their stocks to mitigate price pressure
Source: IMFOutlook in different perspectives
Increasing international reserves are good for stability. But what is an optimum level in the dollarized economy? What are other options to manage international reserves in the current context?