Political Interests of Russia in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan Sultan Erbaş

1. RUSSIAN-AZERBAIJANI
RELATIONS
POLITICAL INTERESTS OF RUSSIA IN POST-SOVIET
AZERBAIJAN

2. Russian-Azerbaijani Relations
 Relations first built on April 4th 1992
 Relations divided into three stages
 1992-2000 «neutral to hostile»
 2000-2008 «pragmatic»
 2008- «more complicated and intimate»

3. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
 Settlement of the conflict, only Russia’s
prerogative
 Efforts to disqualify western mediators, to
show that OSCE Minsk Group is
inadequate to accomplish its mission
 «exchange coin»
 Dependent Armenia, Limited Azerbaijan

4. Russian-Azerbaijani Relations
Ebulfez Elchibey Heydar Aliyev
 Perceives Moscow as
a thret and keeps
relations at certain
level
 Turns his face to
western states and
Turkey
 Gives little chance to
Russian oil companies
 Keeps relations at a
stage serving both
sides’ interests
 Cooperation with
Russian oil and gas
lobby
 Ensure softer and
moderate policies

5. North Caucasus
 Azerbaijan is a strategic partner
 Instability in the North Caucasus may result
in Azerbaijan
 Wave of refugees
 Outflow of the guerillas
 Common fear, increasing Islamic radicalism
 Expansion of the conflict into Azerbaijan eventually
 Spread of ethnic unrest, Avar or Lezgin secessionism
 Azerbaijan’s gas export to Northern Caucasus
make it critical country to form economic
stability in the region

6. Division of Caspian Seabed
 No overall agreement on the status of the
Caspian Sea
 Azerbaijan needs Russian support to
divide it into national sectors, the way
Soviets adopted.
 The Contract of the Century, 20th Sep
1994 by Lukoil

7. Conclusion
 Balance of foreign policies
 Lack of involvement of the EU, NATO and
the US