1. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
Retail Trends: Fact and Fiction
James Child – Retail Research Manager
EGi Research / Estates Gazette

2. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
- RETAIL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS – TOWN CENTRE & OUT OF TOWN
- IMPACT OF NPPF ON RETAIL PLANNING – AN UPDATE.
- INVESTMENT & LEASING TRENDS – TOWN CENTRE & OUT OF TOWN.
- ADMINISTRATIONS 2016 – THE SCALE OF IMPACT.

3. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
RECENT HEADLINES

4. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
RETAIL DEVELOPMENT – TOWN CENTRE VS OUT OF TOWN
All Retail Schemes over 50,000 SQ FT
& with 3 units or more.
Shopping Centres
Retail Parks
Shopping Parks
Factory Outlets
Town Centre Regeneration Schemes.

5. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
APPLICATION
PERMISSION
CONSTRUCTION
COMPLETION
& OPENING
Even if the application is
refused or withdrawn, we
continue to monitor the
scheme for additional
applications or news.
RETAIL DEVELOPMENT – TOWN CENTRE VS OUT OF TOWN

6. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
APPLICATION
PERMISSION
CONSTRUCTION
COMPLETION
& OPENING
RETAIL DEVELOPMENT – TOWN CENTRE VS OUT OF TOWN

7. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
RETAILER
COUNCIL
AGENTS
DEVELOPE
R
COMPANY BULLETINS
SOCIAL MEDIA
LOCAL PRESS
AGENTS
COUNCIL
RETAILER
LOCAL PRESS
SOCIAL MEDIA
DEVELOPER
COMPANY BULLETINS

8. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
CENTRE
TOWN

9. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
MILLION
SQ FT
6,135,708

10. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2016 2017 2018 2019
MILLIONSQFTOFCOMPLETIONS
Town Centre (Under Construction)
Town Centre (Permission)
PREDICTED TOWN CENTRE COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT UC.
2.1M SQ FT
1.2M SQ FT
2.6M SQ FT
0.2M SQ FT

11. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2016 2017 2018 2019
MILLIONSQFTOFCOMPLETIONS
Town Centre (Under Construction)
Town Centre (Permission)
PREDICTED TOWN CENTRE COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT UC + PPG
2.1M SQ FT
5.2M SQ FT
4.6M SQ FT
2.7M SQ FT

12. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute

13. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
HISTORICAL & PREDICTED TOWN CENTRE COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT UC + PPG
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
[ESTD]
2017
[ESTD]
2018
[ESTD]
2019
[ESTD]
MILLIONSQFTOFCOMPLETIONS

14. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
[ESTD]
2017
[ESTD]
2018
[ESTD]
2019
[ESTD]
MILLIONSQFTOFCOMPLETIONS
BOOM CRASH RECOVERY?
HISTORICAL & PREDICTED TOWN CENTRE COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT UC + PPG

15. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
TOWN
OUT OF

16. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
MILLION
SQ FT
1,857,478

17. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
PREDICTED OUT-OF-TOWN COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT UC.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2016 2017 2018 2019
MILLIONSQFTOFCOMPLETIONS
Out of Town (Under Construction)
Out of Town (Permission)
1.1M SQ FT
0.7M SQ FT

18. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2016 2017 2018 2019
MILLIONSQFTOFCOMPLETIONS
Out of Town (Under Construction)
Out of Town (Permission)
PREDICTED OUT-OF-TOWN COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT UC + PPG.
1.1M SQ FT
4.6M SQ FT
0.9M SQ FT
1.3M SQ FT

19. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0 Town Centre Out-of-Town
PREDICTED & HISTORIC COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT U/C + PPG.

20. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
[ESTD]
2017
[ESTD]
2018
[ESTD]
2019
[ESTD]
PREDICTED & HISTORIC COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT U/C + PPG.
If the OUT OF TOWN line goes above the
TOWN CENTRE line… we should be concerned
that town centre first is not working as it
should…

21. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
Last year we talked about
CHANGE OF USE from A1 Retail to
other use types….
…Slight change this year – we’re looking at
NEW BUILD projects in more detail – and
how the proportion of Leisure (D2) space
within them is increasing…

22. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
% SHARE OF
NEW BUILD
THAT IS
LEISURE
(D2)

23. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
Estates Gazette Retail
Supplement.
September 10th.
Savills Blog, September 15th.

24. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
% SHARE OF NEW BUILD THAT IS LEISURE (D2)
Town Centre Out of Town
2004 – 2009
2010 – 2015
2016 – 2019
6% 4%
5%12%
6%14%

25. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
Out Of Town
developers don’t need to
attract punters
with a substantial LEISURE
OFFER
Town Centre
developers have to
attract punters
with a substantial LEISURE
OFFER

26. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
APPLICATION
PERMISSION
CONSTRUCTION
COMPLETION
& OPENING
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TOWN CENTRE FIRST (NPPF)

27. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
PRE-NPPF APPLICATIONS.
SEPT 2007 – MARCH 2012
POST-NPPF APPLICATIONS.
MARCH 2012 – SEPT 2016
33
TOWN
CENTRE
73
OUT OF
TOWN
48
OUT OF
TOWN
51
TOWN
CENTRE
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TOWN CENTRE FIRST (NPPF)

28. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
NUMBER OF OUT-OF-TOWN SCHEMES APPLIED FOR BY QUARTER
3736

29. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
OUT OF TOWN PRE-NPPF
SCHEME STATUS
PERM W/DRAWNREFUSED NO DEC’N PERM REFUSED W/DRAWN NO DEC’N
OUT OF TOWN POST-NPPF
SCHEME STATUS
4842 11 4 101 2 3
66% PERMISSION RATE.
88% PERMISSION RATE.
Average time in the planning
system: 443 days.
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TOWN CENTRE FIRST (NPPF)

30. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
OUT OF TOWN POST-NPPF
SCHEME STATUS
PERM REFUSED W/DRAWN NO DEC’N
29 16
PERM W/DRAWNREFUSED NO DEC’N
TOWN CENTRE POST-NPPF
SCHEME STATUS
2626 48 11 4 1029 2 2 0
88% PERMISSION RATE.
66% PERMISSION RATE.
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TOWN CENTRE FIRST (NPPF)
15% REFUSAL RATE.
6% REFUSAL RATE.

31. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
PRE NPPF
[SEPT 2007 – MARCH 2012]
Town Centre Permissions are
now given 41% QUICKER.
360 DAYS 211 DAYS
Out-of-Town refusals now also
come through QUICKER.
Out-of-Town Permissions also
given QUICKER – only by 5 days.
336 DAYS 331 DAYS
359 DAYS 206 DAYS
POST NPPF
[MARCH 2012 – SEPT 2016]
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TOWN CENTRE FIRST (NPPF)

32. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
OUT OF TOWN PROPOSALS…
- More likely to “drift” without a decision.
- More likely to get refused altogether.
- Will take much longer to get through planning.
But, despite this…
…They are still coming through…
…Does the “Town Centre First”
message need to be stronger…?
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TOWN CENTRE FIRST (NPPF)

33. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
LEASING &
INVESTMENT
TRENDS

34. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
11.8
12.2
11.3
10.1 10.2 10.2
9.1
10.0
8.9 8.8
10.6 10.8
10.1
9.0 9.1
8.7 8.4 8.2
7.9 7.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
AVERAGE LEASE LENGTHS, TOWN CENTRE & OUT-OF-TOWN 2006-2016

35. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
17% 17% 22%
30% 30% 33% 36% 38% 41% 41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% LEASE LENGTHS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 YEARS IN TOWN CENTRES

36. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
15% 10%
15%
26% 25% 28%
34% 31%
36% 38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% LEASE LENGTHS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 YEARS OUT OF TOWN

37. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
MORE MARKED

38. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
INCENTIVES
SPLIT

39. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
5.5
4.6
6.3
6.7 6.7
7.9
6.4 6.4
6.9
5.8
4.8
6.0
5.7
6.5 6.5
6.3 6.2
6.0 6.1 5.9
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
INCENTIVES (Months rent free at start of lease) TOWN
CENTRE & OUT-OF-TOWN 2006-2016

40. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
INVESTMENTS
SPLIT

41. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
23.4%
30.2%
41.8% 39.9%
23.3%
30.0%
22.8% 26.2% 25.5%
32.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
TOTAL RETAIL INVESTMENT SPLIT (Town Centre vs Out Of Town)

42. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
IMPACT OF BRAND ADMINISTRATIONS

43. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
IMPACT OF BRAND ADMINISTRATIONS
7.8
MILLION
SQ FT

44. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
7.8
MILLION
SQ FT
TOWN CENTRE:
6.5 MILLION SQ FT
OUT-OF-TOWN:
1.3 MILLION SQ FT
84% 16%

45. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
Estates Gazette Retail Supplement.
September 10th.

46. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
TOWN CENTRE SPACE CLOSED OR PUT AT RISK DUE
TO ADMINISTRATIONS/RESTRUCTURES H1 2016:
6.5 MILLION SQ FT…
…TOWN CENTRE SPACE COMPLETED AS PART OF
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 2012:
6.1 MILLION SQ FT…

47. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute

48. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2016 2017 2018 2019
MILLIONSQFTOFCOMPLETIONS
Town Centre (Under Construction)
Town Centre (Permission)
PREDICTED TOWN CENTRE COMPLETIONS (sq ft) BASED ON CURRENT UC + PPG
2.1M SQ FT
5.2M SQ FT
4.6M SQ FT
2.7M SQ FT

49. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
A FEW CONCLUSIONS
RISK OF OVERSUPPLY BEARING OUT AS A RESULT OF
DEVELOPMENT AND TOWN CENTRE ADMINISTRATIONS.
INVESTMENT HAS DRIFTED MORE TOWARDS OOT LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST
12 MONTHS – SHORTER TERM LEASES AND FLEXIBILITY.
NPPF CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION TO TOWN CENTRES –
BUT PERHAPS STRONGER MESSAGE NEEDED FOR T.C.F.
8 MILLION SQ FT UNDER CONSTRUCTION AT PRESENT – WITH MAJOR
SCHEME PIPELINE SET TO PEAK NEXT YEAR.

50. RTPI Conferences is managed by Kaplan LPD on behalf of the Royal Town Planning Institute
Thanks For Listening.
All data copyright Estates Gazette Group. September 2015.
James.Child@egi.co.uk
@JamesChildEGi