This document summarizes an article that discusses the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to rethink the foundations of the global aviation system. Some key points:
- Aviation contributes risks like pathogen distribution and climate change that are long-standing negative externalities often ignored in assessments of its economic impacts.
- The pandemic has shown aviation's economic vulnerabilities, as air traffic dropped dramatically and billions in state aid was needed to stabilize airlines and airports.
- Returning strictly to business as usual supported by large state subsidies is questionable, as it does not address aviation's environmental impacts or economic vulnerabilities.
- Alternatives should be considered, like a slimmed air transport system that is less vulnerable and accounts for its environmental
Running head ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY .docxtodd271
Running head: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY 1
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY 38
Towards an Environmentally Sustainable Aviation:
Managing the Environmental Impact of the Aviation Industry
Abstract
Environmental degradation caused by mankind are beginning to take a huge toll on the planet. The constant need for expansion in the aviation industry is depleting Earth’s natural resources and will be insufficient to satisfy mankind’s never-ending needs as time passes. Man’s needs have resulted in many detrimental impacts to the environment. Despite the aviation industry’s efforts in creating an environmentally friendly industry, it is still a major contributor to Earth’s carbon emissions. In 2017 alone, the aviation industry as a whole, has generated an estimated 859 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) (IATA, 2018). Increased Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and climate change have prompted a need for action from relevant authorities and organizations to come up with sustainable solutions to solve this ecological problem. This paper aims to examine areas of pollution within the aviation industry as well as come up with solutions to reduce the environmental impacts using sustainable methods. Sustainable methods include adopting newer clean-and-green technologies, better management, enhanced safety and improved legislation. Technological advancements play a very important role in creating a sustainable aviation. Hence this paper aims to explore new clean-and-green technologies such as alternative and sustainable fuels, biomimetic engineering and generative design technology can help to mitigate or possibly even eliminate, the industry’s negative impact on the environment. Furthermore, this paper will discuss about the legislative powers of regulatory bodies on order to determine commercial airlines liabilities when conforming to regulation being imposed by organizations such as ICAO and FAA. Also, this study will investigate on the potentials of alternative technologies such as machine learning and the obsolescence of manned flight.
Keywords: Sustainable, aviation, environmental impact, pollution
Towards an Environmentally Sustainable Aviation:
Managing the Environmental Impact of the Aviation Industry
The aviation industry has come a long way since the Wright brother’s first manned flight in 1903. Today, at peak traffic, there is more than 16,000 flights in the air at any given moment (Morris, 2017). According to the World Bank (2018), in 2010, the aviation industry has transported an estimation of 2.6 billion passengers. In 2017, the number of passengers has risen to over 3.9 billion. This number is projected to rise to 16 billion passengers by 2050 (World Wild Life, 2016). Hence, without action, emissions from increased air travel will triple by 2050 (Word Wild Life, 2016). Thus, to protect Earth for future generations to come, world leaders, organizations.
The environmental issue in the business model of the civil and defense aerosp...Hugo Wagner
Four-pillar strategy to build a greener future by looking at: alternative fuel, technological advancements, improved infrastructures, operational and economic measures and their consequences on the business model of the aerospace and defense industry.
Environmental issue in the business model of civil and defense aerospace indu...Georges Harari
Four-pillar strategy to build a greener future by looking at: alternative fuel, technological advancements, improved infrastructures, operational and economic measures and their consequences on the business model of the Aerospace and Defense Industry.
IPCC, role of IPCC, IPCC AR5, key messages. approach in climate change mitigation, trends of green house gases, mitigation pathways and measures, mitigation policies and institutions,
The COVID-19 virus has spread worldwide without acknowledging borders. It has impacted all industries, all sectors and all aspects of our lives with devastating economic and financial losses and significant uncertainties.
1 Assignment 2 Final Report Example P.docxcroftsshanon
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
1 Assignment 2 Final Report Example P.docxaulasnilda
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
1 Assignment 2 Final Report Example P.docxkarisariddell
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
Running head ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY .docxtodd271
Running head: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY 1
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE AVIATION INDUSTRY 38
Towards an Environmentally Sustainable Aviation:
Managing the Environmental Impact of the Aviation Industry
Abstract
Environmental degradation caused by mankind are beginning to take a huge toll on the planet. The constant need for expansion in the aviation industry is depleting Earth’s natural resources and will be insufficient to satisfy mankind’s never-ending needs as time passes. Man’s needs have resulted in many detrimental impacts to the environment. Despite the aviation industry’s efforts in creating an environmentally friendly industry, it is still a major contributor to Earth’s carbon emissions. In 2017 alone, the aviation industry as a whole, has generated an estimated 859 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) (IATA, 2018). Increased Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and climate change have prompted a need for action from relevant authorities and organizations to come up with sustainable solutions to solve this ecological problem. This paper aims to examine areas of pollution within the aviation industry as well as come up with solutions to reduce the environmental impacts using sustainable methods. Sustainable methods include adopting newer clean-and-green technologies, better management, enhanced safety and improved legislation. Technological advancements play a very important role in creating a sustainable aviation. Hence this paper aims to explore new clean-and-green technologies such as alternative and sustainable fuels, biomimetic engineering and generative design technology can help to mitigate or possibly even eliminate, the industry’s negative impact on the environment. Furthermore, this paper will discuss about the legislative powers of regulatory bodies on order to determine commercial airlines liabilities when conforming to regulation being imposed by organizations such as ICAO and FAA. Also, this study will investigate on the potentials of alternative technologies such as machine learning and the obsolescence of manned flight.
Keywords: Sustainable, aviation, environmental impact, pollution
Towards an Environmentally Sustainable Aviation:
Managing the Environmental Impact of the Aviation Industry
The aviation industry has come a long way since the Wright brother’s first manned flight in 1903. Today, at peak traffic, there is more than 16,000 flights in the air at any given moment (Morris, 2017). According to the World Bank (2018), in 2010, the aviation industry has transported an estimation of 2.6 billion passengers. In 2017, the number of passengers has risen to over 3.9 billion. This number is projected to rise to 16 billion passengers by 2050 (World Wild Life, 2016). Hence, without action, emissions from increased air travel will triple by 2050 (Word Wild Life, 2016). Thus, to protect Earth for future generations to come, world leaders, organizations.
The environmental issue in the business model of the civil and defense aerosp...Hugo Wagner
Four-pillar strategy to build a greener future by looking at: alternative fuel, technological advancements, improved infrastructures, operational and economic measures and their consequences on the business model of the aerospace and defense industry.
Environmental issue in the business model of civil and defense aerospace indu...Georges Harari
Four-pillar strategy to build a greener future by looking at: alternative fuel, technological advancements, improved infrastructures, operational and economic measures and their consequences on the business model of the Aerospace and Defense Industry.
IPCC, role of IPCC, IPCC AR5, key messages. approach in climate change mitigation, trends of green house gases, mitigation pathways and measures, mitigation policies and institutions,
The COVID-19 virus has spread worldwide without acknowledging borders. It has impacted all industries, all sectors and all aspects of our lives with devastating economic and financial losses and significant uncertainties.
1 Assignment 2 Final Report Example P.docxcroftsshanon
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
1 Assignment 2 Final Report Example P.docxaulasnilda
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
1 Assignment 2 Final Report Example P.docxkarisariddell
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
The latest ‘World in 2030’ foresight from Future Agenda looks at how electric planes may be the answer to faster decarbonisation of aviation.
As the pressure to clean aviation builds, using electric planes for short and medium-haul flights gathers support. Although some technological challenges are significant, investment and regulation align to accelerate development.
A growth in the use of electric planes has the potential to significantly cut aviation emissions, reduce noise and also potentially provide cheaper travel. At a time when, globally, we are flying more, there is a tangible opportunity to accelerate new technology development to electrify aviation. While some governments and cities plan for more airports to accommodate and stimulate more flying, public pushback against higher emissions builds with little interest in temporary solutions such as more carbon offsetting. As a result, the case for truly clean aviation gains wider support and brings together deeper collaborations across research, manufacturers, airlines, cities and travellers.
Drawn from multiple expert discussions around the world, this foresight is one of 50 looking at the key issues for the next decade that are being shared throughout 2020.
https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/electricaviation/
Tourism Industry amid Pandemics Comparative Assessment of Past Outbreaks and ...ijtsrd
Covid 19 has reportedly shattered all previous records of outbreaks. Never a one expected the outbreak, which began in late December 2019, to spread quickly all across the globe, be devastating, and turn the global business upside down. SARS, Ebola Virus Disease EVD , MERS CoV, and other diseases brought about modest casualities in a smaller geographic area, therefore, Covid 19 was predicted to behave similarly at first. But this was not the case. Humans continuously lost their lives and faced financial hardships. Undoubtedly, tourism is amongst the most troubled industries. This research is a review of the literature. On the basis of facts and figures and prior studies, a comparison of the effects of prior outbreaks vis a vis Covid 19 on the tourism business has been attempted in this paper. Covid 19 and previous epidemics are so dissimilar, based on the facts and statistics gathered, that they cant be compared. Covid 19 has been the most hazardous viruses to live with owing to its instant spread, geographic distribution, several individuals who have died as a result of it, and the negative implications it has had across the region. Rajeev Ranjan Mishra | Pallavi Tandon "Tourism Industry amid Pandemics: Comparative Assessment of Past Outbreaks and Covid-19" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-6 , October 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd46434.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/tourism/46434/tourism-industry-amid-pandemics-comparative-assessment-of-past-outbreaks-and-covid19/rajeev-ranjan-mishra
Covid 19 - galvanizing the travel industry for high tideChennam Mounika
The spread of the Covid-19 disease globally, caused by the coronavirus, has halted travel industry operations such as airlines, hotels and cruises across the globe. Demand for the three major segments of the global travel industries airlines, hotels and cruises has slumped to its lowest point in several years.
https://www.wnsdecisionpoint.com/our-insights/reports/detail/93/covid-19-galvanizing-the-travel-industry-for-high-tide
COVID-19 and International Trade: Examining the Pandemic's Impact on Globaliz...AJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT : The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global economy and has
significantly disrupted international trade. This paper aims to examine the ways in which the pandemic has
affected globalization and the international trade system. The study includes an analysis of the impacts of
COVID-19 on trade flows, international supply chains, and the functioning of global value chains. The paper
also explores the measures taken by governments to support international trade and assesses the effectiveness of
these measures. Additionally, the study provides insights into the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on
globalization and international trade. The findings of this research contribute to a better understanding of the
COVID-19 pandemic's impact on international trade and inform policymakers, businesses, and researchers
about the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
Keywords: COVID-19, international trade, globalization, pandemic, trade flows, supply chains, value chains,
government measures, long-term effects, policy, business.
JELL Codes: H12 , H13
10th edition of UN worldwide global GHG emission gap report.
In 10 years of producing the emissions gap report, the gap between what we should be doing and what we actually are is as wide as ever.
On the brink of 2020, we now need to reduce emissions by 7.6 per cent every year from 2020 to 2030. If we do not, we will miss a closing moment in history to limit global warming to 1.5°C. If we do nothing beyond our current, inadequate commitments to halt climate change, temperatures can be expected to rise 3.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with devastating effect.
This study examined the correlation between economic growth and the impact on the environment, specifically focusing on the concept of environmental sustainability. The World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) data is utilized in this study to gauge the strain on the environment, specifically through the measurement of natural disinvestment. This measurement encompasses the cumulative effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) damage, as well as depletions in minerals, energy, and forest resources. This study uses panel data with respect to the endogeneity of explanatory variables to estimate the real effect of per capita income and the other variables on environmental pressure. In this regard, employing the panel Fixed-Effects Instrumental Variable (IV) methodology, the data from 213 countries have been used in the period from 1990 to 2018. Through regression analysis, it has been discovered that there is a direct correlation between income and the impact on the environment in developing nations. However, this relationship is notably more pronounced in low-income countries compared to high-income countries. Additionally, the study reveals that trade expansion contributes to an increase in environmental pressure across all groups of countries. An increase in the school enrolment rate can affect the environment in developed and high-income developing countries. Moreover, the variable effect of capital openness on environmental pressure was estimated to be positive for developed and high-income countries. However, this effect was found to be negative for low-income countries. Finally, the result showed that developing countries should improve their legal structure and also reduce the bureaucracy and complexity of the laws.
Climate Change Mitigation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report a...ipcc-media
Climate Change Mitigation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and content of the Sixth Assessment Report by Diána Ürge-Vorsatz, Vice-Chair of the IPCC Working Group III
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
1
Assignment 2: Final Report
Example Paper
Strayer University
ECO100
Dr. Jean Fonkoua
September 8, 2018
2
Final Report: Airline Industry
Introduction
The US airline industry is on a winning streak following seventeen consecutive
productive quarters. Even with its most significant operational costs, labor, and fuel spikes,
persistent demand on increasing capacity, the airline industry remains in the black. This paper
will focus on critical areas such as the assessment of favorable growth rates up through 2036,
government taxation and its impact and trends on the airline industries. All signs point to
growing demand for global connectivity. Alexandre de Juniac, Director General, and CEO of
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, “The world needs to prepare for a
doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and
industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand” (1).
Size and Growth Rate Assessment
The IATA, in its latest press release, updates that the airline industry is expected to see
roughly 7.8 billion air travelers in 2036, almost double the 4 billion air passengers anticipated to
fly this year. This latest update comes from the most recent release of the IATA's 20-Year Air
Passenger Forecast, base prediction on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
(2). Global air travel is expected to sustain favorable growth rates up to 2030, notwithstanding
hurdles faced within the industry. High jet fuel prices and slow economic growth worldwide
caused strains within the industry. Although challenging, improvements in passenger totals
offset tense economic circumstances which quickly translate into an increased financial
performance of the airline industry. Strong representation in passenger patronage supports an
impressive GDP growth of 3.5% (the strongest since 2010). Subsequently, the global aviation
3
industry is predicted to reach up to 33.8 billion US dollars in profits by the close of 2018, up
from barely 8.3 billion in 2011. Annual growth report shows that between "2017 and 2036, the
number of airline passengers is expected to increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 4.7 percent" (2).
Key Indicator to Monitor (Inflation) and Importance and Impact to the Airline Industry
In the airline industry, important macroeconomic indicators are unemployment, inflation,
and the business cycle. An important indicator, inflation, influences both the business cycle and
unemployment rates, and so it must be monitored closely by the airline industry. For example,
the airline industry earnings are reduced at a startling pace due to inflation. Decreased profits
affect the economic position of the airline industry, which in turn produces a weak employment
environment. Moreover, there is an interchangeable correlation between inflation rates and the
rate .
The latest ‘World in 2030’ foresight from Future Agenda looks at how electric planes may be the answer to faster decarbonisation of aviation.
As the pressure to clean aviation builds, using electric planes for short and medium-haul flights gathers support. Although some technological challenges are significant, investment and regulation align to accelerate development.
A growth in the use of electric planes has the potential to significantly cut aviation emissions, reduce noise and also potentially provide cheaper travel. At a time when, globally, we are flying more, there is a tangible opportunity to accelerate new technology development to electrify aviation. While some governments and cities plan for more airports to accommodate and stimulate more flying, public pushback against higher emissions builds with little interest in temporary solutions such as more carbon offsetting. As a result, the case for truly clean aviation gains wider support and brings together deeper collaborations across research, manufacturers, airlines, cities and travellers.
Drawn from multiple expert discussions around the world, this foresight is one of 50 looking at the key issues for the next decade that are being shared throughout 2020.
https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/electricaviation/
Tourism Industry amid Pandemics Comparative Assessment of Past Outbreaks and ...ijtsrd
Covid 19 has reportedly shattered all previous records of outbreaks. Never a one expected the outbreak, which began in late December 2019, to spread quickly all across the globe, be devastating, and turn the global business upside down. SARS, Ebola Virus Disease EVD , MERS CoV, and other diseases brought about modest casualities in a smaller geographic area, therefore, Covid 19 was predicted to behave similarly at first. But this was not the case. Humans continuously lost their lives and faced financial hardships. Undoubtedly, tourism is amongst the most troubled industries. This research is a review of the literature. On the basis of facts and figures and prior studies, a comparison of the effects of prior outbreaks vis a vis Covid 19 on the tourism business has been attempted in this paper. Covid 19 and previous epidemics are so dissimilar, based on the facts and statistics gathered, that they cant be compared. Covid 19 has been the most hazardous viruses to live with owing to its instant spread, geographic distribution, several individuals who have died as a result of it, and the negative implications it has had across the region. Rajeev Ranjan Mishra | Pallavi Tandon "Tourism Industry amid Pandemics: Comparative Assessment of Past Outbreaks and Covid-19" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-6 , October 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd46434.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/tourism/46434/tourism-industry-amid-pandemics-comparative-assessment-of-past-outbreaks-and-covid19/rajeev-ranjan-mishra
Covid 19 - galvanizing the travel industry for high tideChennam Mounika
The spread of the Covid-19 disease globally, caused by the coronavirus, has halted travel industry operations such as airlines, hotels and cruises across the globe. Demand for the three major segments of the global travel industries airlines, hotels and cruises has slumped to its lowest point in several years.
https://www.wnsdecisionpoint.com/our-insights/reports/detail/93/covid-19-galvanizing-the-travel-industry-for-high-tide
COVID-19 and International Trade: Examining the Pandemic's Impact on Globaliz...AJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT : The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global economy and has
significantly disrupted international trade. This paper aims to examine the ways in which the pandemic has
affected globalization and the international trade system. The study includes an analysis of the impacts of
COVID-19 on trade flows, international supply chains, and the functioning of global value chains. The paper
also explores the measures taken by governments to support international trade and assesses the effectiveness of
these measures. Additionally, the study provides insights into the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on
globalization and international trade. The findings of this research contribute to a better understanding of the
COVID-19 pandemic's impact on international trade and inform policymakers, businesses, and researchers
about the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
Keywords: COVID-19, international trade, globalization, pandemic, trade flows, supply chains, value chains,
government measures, long-term effects, policy, business.
JELL Codes: H12 , H13
10th edition of UN worldwide global GHG emission gap report.
In 10 years of producing the emissions gap report, the gap between what we should be doing and what we actually are is as wide as ever.
On the brink of 2020, we now need to reduce emissions by 7.6 per cent every year from 2020 to 2030. If we do not, we will miss a closing moment in history to limit global warming to 1.5°C. If we do nothing beyond our current, inadequate commitments to halt climate change, temperatures can be expected to rise 3.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with devastating effect.
This study examined the correlation between economic growth and the impact on the environment, specifically focusing on the concept of environmental sustainability. The World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) data is utilized in this study to gauge the strain on the environment, specifically through the measurement of natural disinvestment. This measurement encompasses the cumulative effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) damage, as well as depletions in minerals, energy, and forest resources. This study uses panel data with respect to the endogeneity of explanatory variables to estimate the real effect of per capita income and the other variables on environmental pressure. In this regard, employing the panel Fixed-Effects Instrumental Variable (IV) methodology, the data from 213 countries have been used in the period from 1990 to 2018. Through regression analysis, it has been discovered that there is a direct correlation between income and the impact on the environment in developing nations. However, this relationship is notably more pronounced in low-income countries compared to high-income countries. Additionally, the study reveals that trade expansion contributes to an increase in environmental pressure across all groups of countries. An increase in the school enrolment rate can affect the environment in developed and high-income developing countries. Moreover, the variable effect of capital openness on environmental pressure was estimated to be positive for developed and high-income countries. However, this effect was found to be negative for low-income countries. Finally, the result showed that developing countries should improve their legal structure and also reduce the bureaucracy and complexity of the laws.
Climate Change Mitigation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report a...ipcc-media
Climate Change Mitigation: key messages of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and content of the Sixth Assessment Report by Diána Ürge-Vorsatz, Vice-Chair of the IPCC Working Group III
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
Instructions for Submissions thorugh G- Classroom.pptxJheel Barad
This presentation provides a briefing on how to upload submissions and documents in Google Classroom. It was prepared as part of an orientation for new Sainik School in-service teacher trainees. As a training officer, my goal is to ensure that you are comfortable and proficient with this essential tool for managing assignments and fostering student engagement.
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Honest Reviews of Tim Han LMA Course Program.pptxtimhan337
Personal development courses are widely available today, with each one promising life-changing outcomes. Tim Han’s Life Mastery Achievers (LMA) Course has drawn a lot of interest. In addition to offering my frank assessment of Success Insider’s LMA Course, this piece examines the course’s effects via a variety of Tim Han LMA course reviews and Success Insider comments.
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
2. Journal of Air Transport Management 89 (2020) 101933
2
2006). Air transport also increases person-to-person transmission risks
of respiratory pathogens as a result of high crowd densities in enclosed
spaces (Browne et al., 2016), i.e. airports and aircraft act as incubators
and nodes of disease distribution. This is of relevance because any
spread of disease, particularly at global scales, is associated with a cost
(e.g. Rosen et al., 2004) that includes prevention, research, treatment,
foregone business opportunities, and recession (e.g. Lee and McKibbin,
2004).
An associated risk is climate change, to which aviation makes a
significant contribution. Globally, emissions from aviation approached
one Gigaton (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year before the pandemic
(IEA, 2019). The sector’s contribution to global warming is even
significantly higher due to changes in radiative forcing caused by
short-lived emissions at flight altitude (IPCC et al., 1999). Fahey and Lee
(2016) estimate that aviation contributes close to 5% of all forcing from
anthropogenic sources, i.e. significantly more than the warming from
CO2 alone (about 2.5%; IEA, 2019). With expectations of continued
growth and pre-COVID-19 industry projections that the global fleet of
aircraft will double between 2018 and 2040 (Boeing, 2019), the
importance of aviation as a contributor to climate change in an other
wise decarbonizing world will grow (Peeters et al., 2016).
Yet, even though these risks are well-documented, the general
response has been to either ignore (pathogen/disease) or downplay
(climate change) these challenges. Clearly, pathogen distribution is a
cost of transportation and should be part of cost-benefit analyses, spe
cifically as air industry lobby organizations regularly highlight “induced
benefits” of aviation (AviationBenefits, 2020). To date, no global as
sessments of the cost of aviation-related pathogen distribution have
been published. Climate change is another aspect that has essentially
been ignored over the period 1997 to 2016, i.e. the year of the adoption
of the Kyoto Protocol that assigned responsibility for reducing emissions
through ICAO in 1997 (UNFCCC, 2018) and the presentation of CORSIA,
the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
(ICAO, 2016). CORSIA, as industry’s response to mitigation, has been
met with much critique because it ignores non-CO2 warming, sets a
baseline for annual CO2 emissions of about one Gt CO2 that it will not be
considered under the scheme, and because it focuses on cheap offsets
that imply their own risks, i.e. forest-based carbon sequestration in a
world more prone to wildfires (Larsson et al., 2019; Lyle, 2018; Maert
ens et al., 2019; Scheelhaase et al., 2018). As a consequence, the sector’s
contribution to global warming will also grow, as non-CO2 forcing in
creases (Lee and Sausen, 2000; Bock and Burkhardt, 2019).
The omission of these global risks is systemic, as no efforts are made
to economically reflect these in balance sheets or fares. Climate change
and pandemics thus represent market and policy failures in which the
risk of potentially very significant future disruptions of the socio-
economic system is imposed on society. Compounding this, very sig
nificant subsidies have been extended to aircraft manufacturers, infra
structure providers and airlines throughout the history of commercial
aviation (Doganis, 2005). Subsidies are economic interventions that
have taken the form of grants, equity infusions, loans and loan gua
rantees, reduced taxes or non-taxation (fuel, Value Added Tax, frequent
flier programs) (Gössling et al., 2017). There are also various forms of
hidden subsidies, such as reduced infrastructure fees, forms of
cross-subsidization or monopoly rights. Together with deregulation and
productivity gains, these subsidies have contributed to capacity growth
(ibid.), which in turn has led to a 60% decline in the price of air transport
over the past 20 years (IATA, 2019c). Yet, profitability in the sector has
been low: over the past 30 years, airlines reported operative losses in 12
years (IATA, 2009, 2017, 2019a). Even in the most profitable year in
recent history, 2015, the net profit per departing passenger was just
slightly above US$10, and less than the operative loss in the least
profitable year, 2008, at US$ − 10.5 per passenger (IATA, 2009). These
figures illustrate that on balance, and considering the role of subsidies
and State aid in crisis periods, it is questionable whether commercial
aviation generates positive net results.
The understanding of risks imposed by aviation on individuals (in
terms of health and wellbeing) or society (in terms of climate change or
the economic cost of pandemics) is equally ignored by air travelers, the
aviation industry, politicians, health insurers. Notably, health concerns
raised during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic have been
rapidly been replaced by a narrative of economic necessity to re-start
travel and tourism.
3. Is there an aviation overcapacity?
There is much evidence that the decline in the real cost of air
transport has had a wide range of negative side effects, including eco
nomic vulnerabilities (Gössling et al., 2017). The low price of air
transport induces traffic and changes the structure of global transport
flows. For example, the share of international tourists arriving by air
increased from less than 44% in 1998 to 58% in 2019 (UNWTO, 2000;
2020), while the number of air passengers almost tripled in this period,
from 1.5 billion (1998) to 4.2 billion (2018) (The World Bank, 2020).
Yet, while air industry advocates have sought to spread an under
standing that air travel is a global norm, recent research has determined
that flight activity is highly skewed, as only a few percent of the world
population fly internationally in a given year (Peeters et al., 2007).
North America stands out as the region that has the greatest demand for
air transport. The estimate is that annual per capita transport demand in
North America is about 50 times higher than in Africa, eight times
higher than in the Asia-Pacific, and twice as high as in Europe (IATA,
2019a). These values denote regional averages; national distributions in
demand are even more skewed. For instance, in the USA, 12% of the
population are estimated to take 68% of all flights (ICCT, 2019). As
Banister (2018) notes, cheaper air transport does not empower more
people to fly, rather than to entice the same travelers to fly more. This
has implications for climate change. Very frequent fliers, who may fly
hundreds of thousands of kilometers per year, often in private aircraft,
can emit thousands of tons of CO2 per year. In the most extreme cases,
their air travel may contribute ten thousand times more to global
warming than the overall consumption of a person living in poorer na
tions (Gössling, 2019).
This raises the question of how much air transport is really needed.
Growing evidence suggests that air transport ‘wants’ are weakly corre
lated with ‘needs’. For example, students assign very different values to
individual flights, rating a significant share as having “limited” or “no
importance at all” (Gössling et al., 2019). The issue is perhaps even
better illustrated by the ‘flourishing’ and ‘floundering’ business traveler
types identified by Hanna et al. (2018). Floundering air travelers would
like to fly less, yet consider themselves forced to constantly travel. In
contrast, air travel is related to identity, lifestyle and career advance
ment for the “flourishing” flyer type, which also explains the propensity
for mileage runs among certain travelers (Gössling and Nilsson, 2011).
Equally important are energy intensities. The World Bank (2013) esti
mates that the carbon footprint of a premium class flight is three times
(business) and nine times (first class) larger than a flight in economy
class. This illustrates interrelationships and dilemmas of energy use and
emissions, transport demand, and the distribution of risks and their cost.
Ignoring these issues, the industry response has been to demand State
aid and a return to business-as-usual, not even considering alternative
business models. For instance, a business model focused on profitability
rather than revenue could eliminate much air travel and yet increase the
sector’s profit margins. In a situation of reduced supply, limited, for
instance, by the amount of carbon the sector is allowed to emit, growing
demand should significantly increase willingness to pay for transport
services.
4. A return to risk and vulnerability?
As the preceding sections highlight, there is reason to critically
discuss the development of the global air transport system. Crises of the
S. Gössling
3. Journal of Air Transport Management 89 (2020) 101933
3
past, including the global financial crisis in 2008, have shown that there
is a potential for quick rebounds. IATA (2020) expects that the recovery
after COVID-19 will take longer, but a return to business-as-usual is
expected nevertheless. Is this desirable from an integrated
socio-environmental-economic viewpoint? The evidence is that a)
aviation is responsible for very significant negative externalities
imposed on society; b) demand is to a considerable degree induced, on
the basis of very low fares; and c) the air transport system continues to
focus on volume-growth strategies with small profit margins. The future
vulnerabilities this implies should be obvious.
As consultants to industry and governments affirm (McKinsey &
Company, 2020), COVID-19 has many similarities to climate change:
The risk of global warming is systemic, nonstationary, nonlinear,
requiring a focus on longer-term resilience, and characterized by market
failure. It may be added that in contrast to COVID-19, climate change
risks accumulate over time, are permanent, and will be very disruptive
and irreversible when reaching tipping points (IPCC, 2018; Lenton et al.,
2019). Contrary to COVID-19, climate change risks are well described in
recurrent documentations, the IPCC reports, available since the 1990s.
There is also a principal global consensus, the Paris Agreement on
decarbonization, as a common goal for humanity (UNFCCC, 2019).
Against this background, it is of interest to consider the implications
of plans to extend State aid to the air transport value chain. Aircraft
manufacturers, airlines and airports have already received considerable
and often unconditional support. The Airline Bailout Tracker published
by T&E, Greenpeace and Carbon Market Watch (2020) suggests that in
Europe, agreed bailouts now total €12.9 billion, with another €17.1
billion under discussion. In the USA, US$25 billion in loans and US$25
billion in grants have been made available to passenger airlines; US$8
billion to cargo carriers; and US$3 billion to airport contractors (Reu
ters, 2020a). Up to US$13 billion are accessible by Singapore Airlines
(Reuters, 2020b). At the end of May 2020, the total volume of State aid
may have exceeded US$100 billion, i.e. almost half of what global air
lines reported as their net result over nine years, i.e. for the entire period
2010–2018 (US$196.9 billion; IEA, 2019). In other words, State aid now
extended to airlines to ensure their survival is equivalent to the profits
that may be made over many years, notably in the absence of further
disruptions, and without considering the cost of negative externalities.
5. Thinking the unthinkable
As proposed by Banister and Hickman (2013), it is important to
“think the unthinkable”, i.e. to consider longer-term transportation
scenarios that embrace possibility, plausibility and desirability. It may
be argued that air transport futures have been discussed mostly in terms
of “possibility”, and less in terms of plausibility or desirability. “Possi
bilities” are framed economically, and by a limited number of actors, the
proponents of volume growth. There is a notable absence of any dis
cussion of alternative pathways. Yet, most stakeholders in industry and
policymakers would agree that it is desirable for aviation to become
more resilient financially and more sustainable climatically. It would
seem that for this to happen, very radical changes are necessary in terms
of measuring economic performance, the progress and potential of
technology change, and the limits to sustainable transitions implied by a
rapidly growing transport system (Gössling and Higham, 2020).
In conclusion, this discussion has revealed unsurmountable conflicts
inherent in the proposition of continued volume growth and a reduction
in risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, a reorientation is necessary that in
cludes the possibility of a shrinking of the global air transport system to
increase its desirability for society. It is also plausible. COVID-19 has
forced many airlines to reduce their fleets, retire old aircraft, or stop
serving long-haul destinations. Airlines have gone bankrupt (Flybee,
South African Airways, Eurowings), or entered Voluntary Administra
tion (Air Mauritius, Virgin Australia) (TTRWeekly, 2020). As a result, air
transport capacity is diminished. Further reductions in capacity may be
achieved by reducing subsidies. This should affect low-cost carriers such
as Ryanair, an airline sometimes offering transport at a price below the
cost of fuel, while counting among the European Union’s top 10
greenhouse gas emitters (The Guardian, 2019).
A scenario for a resilient aviation system should have a starting point
in the question of how much air transport is needed; here, the COVID-19
pandemic leaves much room for critical reflection. A desirable aviation
system is also one where risks are accounted for, and where their cost is
part of the price paid for air travel. In a situation of reduced supply, there
should be an opportunity for airlines to increase profitability. COVID-19
thus offers an opportunity to rethink global air transport. Many ques
tions, such as those addressing volume growth, the sector’s reliance on
State aid, its unresolved environmental impacts, and hence the basic
assumptions on which aviation operates, will be difficult to ask. How
ever, risks and vulnerabilities have to be weighed against short-term
benefits, if the sector’s future resilience is to improve. If there is one
lesson to be learned from the COVID-19 crisis, it is the demonstration
that nation states can take radical structural actions to deal with
emergencies.
Author statement
The idea for this opinion piece was developed by the author, who
also wrote the entire text.
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