Risk assessment tools and techniques

LIST
OF

TOOLS
&

TECHNIQUES

RECOMMENDED
IN
ISO
31010

Brainstorming
produce
an
idea
or
way
of

solving
a
problem
by
holding

a
spontaneous
group

discussion.

Structured
&
Semi-‐structured
Interviews
A
semi-‐structured
interview is
a
method
of
research used
most
often
in
the
social
sciences.
While
a

structured
interview has
a
rigorous
set
of
questions
which
does
not
allow
one
to
divert,
a
semi-‐
structured
interview is
open,
allowing
new
ideas
to
be
brought
up
during
the
interview
as
a
result
of

what
the
interviewee
says.
The
interviewer
in
a
semi-‐structured
interview
generally
has
a
framework
of

themes
to
be
explored.

The
Delphi
method is
a
structured
communication

technique or
method,
originally
developed
as
a

systematic,
interactive
forecasting
method which

relies
on
a
panel
of
experts.
The
experts
answer

questionnaires
in
two
or
more
rounds.
Delphi Technique

The
preliminary
hazard
analysis

(PrHA)
technique
is
a
broad,
initial

study
used
in
the
early
stages
of

system
design.
It
focuses
on
(1)

identifying
apparent
hazards,
(2)

assessing
the
severity
of
potential

accidents
that
could
occur

involving
the
hazards,
and
(3)

identifying
safeguards
for
reducing

the
risks
associated
with
the

hazards.
This
technique
focuses
on

identifying
weaknesses
early
in
the

life
of
a
system,
thus
saving
time

and
money
that
might
be
required

for
major
redesign
if
the
hazards

were
discovered
at
a
later
date.

Preliminary
Hazard
Analysis

A
hazard
and

operability
study

(HAZOP)
is
a

structured
and

systematic

examination
of
a

complex
planned

or
existing
process

or
operation
in

order
to
identify

and
evaluate

problems
that

may
represent

risks
to
personnel

or
equipment.
HAZOP
Hazard
and
Operability
Study

Hazard
analysis
and
critical
control
points
or

HACCP (/ˈhæsʌp/)
is
a
systematic
preventive

approach
to
food
safety
from
biological,

chemical,
and
physical
hazards
in
production

processes
that
can
cause
the
finished
product

to
be
unsafe,
and
designs
measurements
to

reduce
these
risks
to
a
safe
level.
HACCP

Environmental
Risk
Assessment
An
environmental
risk
assessment
(ERA)
is
a

process
of
predicting
whether
there
may
be
a
risk

of
adverse
effects
on
the
environment
caused
by
a

chemical
substance.
Environmental
exposure

concentrations
of
a
chemical
are
predicted
and

compared
to
predicted
no-‐effect
concentrations

for
different
environmental
compartments.

Structure
What
if?
(SWIFT)

Scenario
analysis
is
a
process
of
analyzing
possible

future
events
by
considering

alternative
possible
outcomes

(sometimes
called
"alternative

worlds").
Thus,
scenario
analysis,

which
is
one
of
the
main
forms
of

projection,
does
not
try
to
show
one

exact
picture
of
the
future.

Business
Impact
Analysis
Risk
Assessment
Business
Impact
Analysis

Root
cause
analysis (RCA)
is
a
method

of
problem
solving
used
for
identifying

the
root
causes of
faults
or
problems.
ROOT
CAUSE
ANALYSIS

Failure
Mode
Effect
Analysis

or
orand
Fault
tree
analysis (FTA)

is
a
top
down,
deductive
failure
analysis in
which
an

undesired
state
of
a
system
is
analyzed
using
Boolean

logic
to
combine
a
series
of
lower-‐level
events.

Event
tree
analysis (ETA)

is
a
forward,
bottom
up,
logical
modeling

technique
for
both
success
and
failure
that

explores
responses
through
a
single
initiating

event and
lays
a
path
for
assessing
probabilities
of

the
outcomes
and
overall
system
analysis.

Cause-‐Consequence

Analysis
Cause-‐consequence
analysis
(CCA)
is
a

method
for
analyzing
consequence

chains
and
can
be
used
individually
or
as

a
supportive
method
for
other
analysis

methods.
The
objective
of
the
analysis
is

to
recognize
consequence
chains

developing
from
failures
or
other

unwanted
events,
and
to
estimate
these

consequences
with
their
probabilities.

The
cause-‐consequence
structure
of
the

analysis
is
formed
by
combining
two

different
types
of
tree
structures

together.
To
the
consequence
tree,
built

from
left
to
right,
includes
the
examined

primary
event
and
its
follow-‐up
events

leading
eventually
to
a
failure
or
some

other
unwanted
event
like
for
example
a

serious
injury
of
a
person.

The
Ishikawa
Diagram,
also
known
as
the
Fishbone
Diagram
or
the

Cause-‐and-‐Effect
Diagram,
is
a
tool
used
for
systematically
identifying
and

presenting
all
the
possible
causes
of
a
particular
problem
in
graphical

format. The
possible
causes
are
presented
at
various
levels
of
detail
in

connected
branches,
with
the
level
of
detail
increasing
as
the
branch
goes

outward,
i.e.,
an
outer
branch
is
a
cause
of
the
inner
branch
it
is
attached

to. Thus,
the
outermost
branches
usually
indicate
the
root
causes
of
the

problem.
Ishikawa
Diagram
/
Fishbone
Diagram
/
Cause
and
Effect
Diagram

Layer of Protection
Analysis (LOPA)
technique is described in detail in The
American
Institute of Chemical Engineers Center for
Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) publication
on
the subject [2]. An overview of the technique
is presented here. For more information the
reader is referred to the CCPS publication,
which contains a number of worked
examples and
extensive references.

Decision
treeis
a

decision support
tool
that
uses
a

tree-‐like
graph
or
model
of
decisions
and
their
possible
consequences,

including
chance
event
outcomes,

resource
costs,
and
utility.
It
is
one

way
to
display
an
algorithm.

Once
potential
sources
of
error
have
been

identified,
actions
can
be
developed
to
minimise or

mitigate
their
impact
and
improve
the
reliability of

human performance
within
the
task.
U.S.
Nuclear

Regulatory
Commission
(2005).
The
SPAR-‐H
Human

Reliability
Analysis Method
(nrc.gov).
Human
Reliability
Analysis

‘Bowtie’is
a
diagram
that
visualizes
the
risk

you
are
dealing
with
in
just
one,
easy
to
understand
the

picture.
The
diagram
is
shaped
like
a
bow-‐tie,
creating
a

clear
differentiation
between
proactive
and
reactive
risk

management.
The
power
of
a
BowTieXP diagram
is
that
it

gives
you
an
overview
of
multiple
plausible
scenarios,
in
a

single
picture.
In
short,
it
provides
a
simple,
visual

explanation
of
a
risk
that
would
be
much
more
difficult
to

explain
otherwise.

Reliability-‐centered

maintenance

is
a
process
to
ensure
that
systems

continue
to
do
what
their
users
require

in
their
present
operating
context.

Sneak
Circuit
Analysis
is
a
vital
part
of
the
safety

assurance
of
safety-‐critical
electronic
and
electro-‐mechanical

systems.
Sneak conditions
are
defined
as
latent
hardware,
software,

or
integrated
conditions
that
may
cause
unwanted
actions
or
may

inhibit
a
desired
function,
and
are
not
caused
by
component
failure.

A
method
used
to
forecast
the

value
of
a
variable
whose

future
value
is
independent
of

its
past
history.
The
technique

is
named
after
Russian

mathematician
Andrei

Andreyevich Markov,
who

pioneered
the
study
of

stochastic
processes,
which
are

processes
that
involve
the

operation
of
chance.
Markov
Analysis

Monte
Carlo

simulation
performs
risk
analysis by
building

models
of
possible
results
by

substituting
a
range
of
values—a

probability
distribution—for
any
factor

that
has
inherent
uncertainty.
It
then

calculates
results
over
and
over,
each

time
using
a
different
set
of
random

values
from
the
probability
functions.

Bayesian
network,
Bayes
network,

belief
network,
Bayes(ian)
model or
probabilistic
directed
acyclic
graphical
model is
a

probabilistic
graphical
model (a
type
of
statistical
model)
that
represents
a
set
of
random

variables and
their
conditional
dependencies via
a
directed
acyclic
graph (DAG).

F-N curves:
Curves relating the probability per year of causing
N or more fatalities (F) to N. This is the
complementary cumulative distribution function.
Such curves may be used to express societal risk
criteria and to describe the safety levels of
particular facilities.

Risk
Index :

The
risk
index is
the
overall
result
of
a
risk assessment.

All
indicators
and
indexes can
be
used
in
the
calculation

for
the
risk
index.
It
is
a
composite
of
the
likelihood
and

impact
index.
Likelihood
:
The
likelihood
index shows

the
probability
of
a
risk event
occuring.

The
most
common
approach
to
the
consequence

matrix is
using
“descriptors”
as
a
way
of

determining
how
each
risk
may
impact
on
the

organisation.
...
catastrophic
impact
on
an

organisation's ability
to
achieve
its
objectives;

irrevocable
damage
to
the
reputation
of
the

organisation;
and.
high
level,
frequent
litigation.
Consequence
/

Probability
Matrix

Cost
benefit
analysis
(CBA),
sometimes
called
benefit
cost

analysis (BCA),
is
a
systematic
approach
to

estimating
the
strengths
and
weaknesses
of

alternatives
(for
example
in
transactions,

activities,
functional
business
requirements

or
projects
investments);
it
is
used
to

determine
options
that
provide
the
best

approach
to
achieve
benefits
while

preserving
savings.[1] The
CBA
is
also
defined

as
a
systematic
process
for
calculating
and

comparing
benefits
and
costs of
a
decision,

policy
(with
particular
regard
to
government

policy)
or
(in
general)
project.
Broadly,
CBA
has
two
main
purposes:
1.To
determine
if
an
investment/decision
is

sound
(justification/feasibility)
– verifying

whether
its
benefits
outweigh
the
costs,
and

by
how
much;
2.To
provide
a
basis
for
comparing
projects
–
which
involves
comparing
the
total
expected

cost
of
each
option
against
its
total
expected

benefits.[2]

Multi-‐Criteria
Decision
Analysis,
or

MCDA,

is
a
valuable
tool
that
we
can
apply
to
many
complex

decisions. It
is
most
applicable
to
solving
problems
that
are

characterized
as
a
choice
among
alternatives.
It
has
all
the

characteristics
of
a
useful
decision
support
tool:
It
helps
us

focus
on
what
is
important,
is
logical
and
consistent,
and
is

easy
to
use. At
its
core
MCDA
is
useful
for:
•Dividing
the
decision
into
smaller,
more
understandable
parts

•Analyzing
each
part

•Integrating
the
parts
to
produce
a
meaningful
solution

By Ahmad
Azwang Aisram Omar
aisram@gmail.com

Risk assessment tools and techniques

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