1) This risk assessment examines the risks of flooding in Cagayan de Oro City from Cagayan River prior to Typhoon Sendong making landfall. 2) It identifies 5 potential risk items relating to flooding and rates the inherent and residual risks from each item as critical, even after risk controls are implemented. 3) As the assessment was done with limited data pre-Sendong, it should be considered an approximation, but can still be used to simulate the pre-landfall risk scenario to help disaster management planning going forward. Regular reviews are recommended.

1. Risk Assessment NOTE: This Risk Assessment did not take into account laws/acts such as RA10121, RA7279, RA7160, and letter/s ( http://www.goldstardailynews.com/northern-mindanao-%7C%7C-x/7353-denr-warned-jaraula-emano.html ) from DENR to LGU. The Author Arnel Escobido Aguinot Registered Civil Engineer (PRC - Philippines) Professional Engineer (Institute of Engineers Australia) BS in Civil Engineering Master of Engineering Former resident of NHA – Lourdesville Homes, Balulang, Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines

2. Probability or Likelihood Classification Descriptor Description Probability of Single Event Almost Certain Common or frequent occurrence, likely to occur often during the life of an individual item or system, or very often in an operation of a large number of similar items >25% Likely Is known to occur or it has happened. Likely to occur several times in the life of an individual item or system or often in operation of a large number of similar items 10% - 25% Possible Could occur or “I’ve heard of it happening”. Likely to occur sometime in the life of an individual item or system, or will occur several times in the life of a large number of similar components 1% - 10% Unlikely Unlikely to occur, but possible to occur sometime in the life of an individual item or system, or can reasonably be expected to occur in the life of a large number of similar components 0.1% - 1% Rare Practically impossible, so unlikely to occur in the life of an individual item or system that it may be assumed not to be experienced, or it may be possible, but unlikely to occur in the life of a large number of similar components <0.1% Maximum Reasonable Consequence Classifications Descriptor Health & Safety Environment Damage or Cost impact Catastrophic Fatality or permanent disability Impact with potential for severe of long term harm, or impact on area of significance >Php 80M Major Lost day injury, or illness Events causing harm which cannot be immediately recovered Php20M - Php80M Serious Restricted duties injury or illness Impact with localised harm Php4M - Php20M Medium Medical treatment injury or illness Events with potential to cause local harm Php400k - Php 4M Minor First aid injury or illness not requiring treatment single event causing negligible harm <Php400k RISK MATRIX CONSEQUENCES 1-Minor 2-Medium 3-Serious 4-Major 5-Catastrophic LIKELIHOOD Risk Rating A-Almost Certain Moderate High Critical Critical Critical B-Likely Moderate High High Critical Critical C-Possible Low Moderate High Critical Critical D-Unlikely Low Low Moderate High Critical E-Rare Low Low Moderate High High

8. All inherent Risks are Critical with Consequences to be Catastrophic and Major . After putting in controls, majority of the items remain Critical although its likelihood are now reduced . Regarding Control (refer to control column), consideration must be given to the appropriate application of the hierarchy of control as follows: 1. Elimination 2. Substitution 3. Isolation 4. Engineering 5. Administration 6. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) or Signage This template, as its title connotes, is a high level Risk Assessment. It is recommended that a Barangay level Risk Assessment must also be developed. Notes on the Risk Assessment Matrix: Generally, Risk remains the same or reduces a level (e.g. from major to serious) after the installation of control measure/s. If the control measure cannot be implemented immediately there is a possibility that something can happen in the interim period – in this case residual risk score would be the same as inherent risk until control measures are in place. There are a number of Potential Causes under Item No. 1 which can be considered as given or are already known and are ranked Critical in Inherent and Residual Risks. Item No. 2 is considered enforceable while Item No. 3 is generally referring to poor dissemination (2-way process) of information. Item No. 4 is something that CDO can implement in the future. Item No. 5 – after careful consideration of Items 1 to 4 it can be deduced that the loss of lives is forthcoming especially for communities in very close proximity to Cagayan River. Item No. 6 (not in the matrix) – should be Rescue Operation.

9. Disclaimer This was developed after Sendong made a landfall in Cagayan de Oro City. With very limited information and data to populate the Risk Assessment matrix it must be understood that this may not be the true picture of Pre-Sendong scenario, however, this may be used to simulate an approximate Pre-landfall (Sendong) Risk Assessment, hence this presentation. The information provided does not have regard to individual circumstances and does not purport to be exhaustive or complete. The author does not warrant that the information are accurate, reasonable or complete, and to the maximum permitted by law, excludes all liability arising in relation to the information or its use. The information is not a substitute for professional advice, and before taking or omitting to take any action based on the information provided, professional advice (including from qualified Drainage and Civil Engineers, GIS Specialists, and Consultants) should be sought, and safety precautions should be assessed. Moving forward, it is highly recommended that this template (Risk Assessment Matrix), or its equivalent, will form part of the CDO’s disaster management plan; however if such template is already in place, it must be reviewed periodically. Responsible party must be identified to ensure controls are implemented. This Risk Assessment must be reviewed upon receipt of information relating to Low Pressure Area (LPA) or Typhoon especially if the identified catchment area/s feeding Cagayan River is potentially within the LPA or Typhoon path; Lastly, this must be made available to all stakeholders (e.g. general public of CDO).