International statesmen Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov, and
Sam Nunn call on Western and Russian leaders to take immediate steps to
reduce the risk of a dangerous military confrontation. This report offers
recommendations to avoid accidents, enhance predictability, and build
confidence.
Russia and the West are at a dangerous crossroads. During the past several years, we have been in a state of escalating tension, trapped in a downward spiral of antagonism and distrust. With our militaries moving closer—in the skies over the Baltic Sea, in the depths of the North Atlantic, and across the Middle East—the risks of miscalculation or accident and escalation are unacceptably high. Unless Western and Russian leaders take immediate steps to improve transparency and enhance predictability, they may inadvertently risk a deadly confrontation.
This paper, which is based on a survey of leading defense and security experts from the United States, Russia, and Europe, puts forward nine urgent and practical recommendations to ensure that we avoid the worst kind of catastrophe: a nuclear incident involving NATO and Russian forces. The measures are focused on preventing accidents, enhancing predictability, and building confidence. These include recommendations to fly military aircraft with transponders turned on, to establish “safe distance” protocols for ships and aircraft, to demonstrate restraint in military exercises, and to improve transparency for deployments of both missile and missile defense systems.
Perhaps most importantly, this paper recommends that Western and Russian leaders initiate a dialogue focused on strategic stability and nuclear risk reduction. Dialogue should never be seen as a sign of weakness—it is essential for nuclear risk reduction to protect our citizens. Military-tomilitary discussions should be at the top of the list of near-term steps to reduce risk.
Even during the darkest days of the Cold War, we maintained robust channels of communication to prevent nuclear accidents, miscalculations, or nuclear escalation. Today, nearly all of these channels have eroded, and our political and military leaders seldom talk to one another. Simply put, it is national security malpractice that today we have virtually no dialogue among our capitals on reducing nuclear risks. This must change.
Absent engagement, nuclear risks will only continue to increase, endangering all of us. The time to act on
our common security interests is now.
Доклад NTI «Рост ядерной угрозы: меры по сокращению рисков в Евроатлантическо...Russian Council
Россия и Запад находятся на опасном перепутье. В последние годы наблюдается постоянный рост напряженности. Спираль антагонизма и недоверия продолжает раскручиваться. Расстояние, разделяющее вооруженные силы обеих сторон, становится все меньше — и в небе над Балтийским морем, и на просторах Северной Атлантики, и на Ближнем Востоке. Зато риски просчетов, случайных инцидентов и непреднамеренной эскалации становятся неприемлемо высокими. Западные и российские лидеры должны предпринять срочные меры для повышения прозрачности и предсказуемости в области безопасности. В противном случае они могут, сами того не желая, оказаться перед лицом полномасштабного конфликта.
В настоящем документе, основанном на опросе ведущих экспертов США, России и ЕC, сформулированы девять рекомендаций по неотложным и практическим мерам с целью избежать худшего варианта катастрофы - ядерного инцидента с участием вооруженных сил России и НАТО. Предлагаемые меры направлены на предотвращение инцидентов, повышение предсказуемости и укрепление доверия. Они включают осуществление полетов военных самолетов с включенными транспондерами, принятие протоколов «безопасных расстояний» для морских и воздушных судов, проявление сдержанности при проведении военных учений и повышение прозрачности при развертывании комплексов ракетного вооружения и систем противоракетной обороны.
Возможно, самым важным в этом документе является рекомендация западным и российским лидерам начать диалог по укреплению стратегической стабильности и минимизации рисков в ядерной сфере. Диалог никогда не следует рассматривать как признак слабости — он необходим для сокращения ядерных рисков, чтобы защитить наших граждан. В ближайшей перспективе приоритетными шагами в этом направлении должны стать переговоры между военными с обеих сторон.
Даже в самые напряженные периоды холодной войны мы поддерживали надежные каналы связи для снижения рисков ядерных инцидентов, ядерной эскалации и ошибочных решений. Сегодня почти все эти каналы разрушены, а наши политические и военные лидеры редко говорят друг с другом. Практически полное отсутствие диалога между нашими столицами по снижению ядерных рисков является губительной практикой. Подобную ситуацию необходимо изменить.
При отсутствии взаимодействия ядерные риски будут лишь нарастать, подвергая опасности всех нас. Пришло время действовать во имя наших общих интересов безопасности.
Авторы предисловия: Дес Браун, Вольфганг Ишингер, Игорь Иванов, Сэм Нанн.
Авторы доклада: Роберт Берлс, Леон Ратз.
Defining Dialogue: How to Manage Russia–UK Security Relations Russian Council
By Sarah Lain and Andrey Kortunov
Even though there is a state of ‘deep-freeze’ between the UK and Russia, especially in relation to security, there are still important opportunities for dialogue and cooperation which policymakers on both sides should exploit.
This conference report summarises the discussions at two bilateral meetings held in London and Moscow between experts from the UK and Russia. The meetings sought to explore the security challenges facing the two countries, and to assist policymakers on both sides to identify realistic potential areas of engagement, as well as to confirm areas that are unlikely to produce results. They were organised by Russian International Affairs Council and Royal United Services Institute, and were attended by participants from various UK and Moscow-based institutions. At the meetings the participants examined a range of security challenges and made a series of recommendations to improve future UK–Russia security relations.
The report notes that risk reduction and confidence building are seen as ‘a particular challenge’ due to ‘the apparent absence of rules and the ability to effectively signal to each other, which had even existed during the Cold War'. To counter this, the participants at the meetings recommended further bilateral UK–Russian military engagement, with one UK participant saying ‘it is not a concession to Russia from the West and does not symbolise appeasement’. This could be done through existing forums, such as the NATO–Russia Council or the OSCE, or through a ‘new dedicated bilateral forum'.
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the Uni...atlanticcouncil
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do, a joint report by the Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, argues that to deter further aggression by the Kremlin and its surrogates, Ukraine urgently needs significant military assistance. Drawing on discussions with senior NATO and US officials, the authors—Ivo Daalder, Michele Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steven Pifer, James Stavridis, Strobe Talbott, and Charles Wald—argue that in order to enable Ukraine to defend itself, the US government should provide Ukraine $3 billion in both lethal and nonlethal military assistance over the next three years.
If President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine is not stopped, the West can expect further Kremlin provocations elsewhere. Although Western economic sanctions have made it clear that the price of Russian aggression will be the Russian economy, these measures have not been able to curb the Kremlin’s revisionist foreign policy. Providing US military assistance to Ukraine is critical to the country’s defense and to preserving peace and stability in Europe, Eurasia, and beyond.
Доклад NTI «Рост ядерной угрозы: меры по сокращению рисков в Евроатлантическо...Russian Council
Россия и Запад находятся на опасном перепутье. В последние годы наблюдается постоянный рост напряженности. Спираль антагонизма и недоверия продолжает раскручиваться. Расстояние, разделяющее вооруженные силы обеих сторон, становится все меньше — и в небе над Балтийским морем, и на просторах Северной Атлантики, и на Ближнем Востоке. Зато риски просчетов, случайных инцидентов и непреднамеренной эскалации становятся неприемлемо высокими. Западные и российские лидеры должны предпринять срочные меры для повышения прозрачности и предсказуемости в области безопасности. В противном случае они могут, сами того не желая, оказаться перед лицом полномасштабного конфликта.
В настоящем документе, основанном на опросе ведущих экспертов США, России и ЕC, сформулированы девять рекомендаций по неотложным и практическим мерам с целью избежать худшего варианта катастрофы - ядерного инцидента с участием вооруженных сил России и НАТО. Предлагаемые меры направлены на предотвращение инцидентов, повышение предсказуемости и укрепление доверия. Они включают осуществление полетов военных самолетов с включенными транспондерами, принятие протоколов «безопасных расстояний» для морских и воздушных судов, проявление сдержанности при проведении военных учений и повышение прозрачности при развертывании комплексов ракетного вооружения и систем противоракетной обороны.
Возможно, самым важным в этом документе является рекомендация западным и российским лидерам начать диалог по укреплению стратегической стабильности и минимизации рисков в ядерной сфере. Диалог никогда не следует рассматривать как признак слабости — он необходим для сокращения ядерных рисков, чтобы защитить наших граждан. В ближайшей перспективе приоритетными шагами в этом направлении должны стать переговоры между военными с обеих сторон.
Даже в самые напряженные периоды холодной войны мы поддерживали надежные каналы связи для снижения рисков ядерных инцидентов, ядерной эскалации и ошибочных решений. Сегодня почти все эти каналы разрушены, а наши политические и военные лидеры редко говорят друг с другом. Практически полное отсутствие диалога между нашими столицами по снижению ядерных рисков является губительной практикой. Подобную ситуацию необходимо изменить.
При отсутствии взаимодействия ядерные риски будут лишь нарастать, подвергая опасности всех нас. Пришло время действовать во имя наших общих интересов безопасности.
Авторы предисловия: Дес Браун, Вольфганг Ишингер, Игорь Иванов, Сэм Нанн.
Авторы доклада: Роберт Берлс, Леон Ратз.
Defining Dialogue: How to Manage Russia–UK Security Relations Russian Council
By Sarah Lain and Andrey Kortunov
Even though there is a state of ‘deep-freeze’ between the UK and Russia, especially in relation to security, there are still important opportunities for dialogue and cooperation which policymakers on both sides should exploit.
This conference report summarises the discussions at two bilateral meetings held in London and Moscow between experts from the UK and Russia. The meetings sought to explore the security challenges facing the two countries, and to assist policymakers on both sides to identify realistic potential areas of engagement, as well as to confirm areas that are unlikely to produce results. They were organised by Russian International Affairs Council and Royal United Services Institute, and were attended by participants from various UK and Moscow-based institutions. At the meetings the participants examined a range of security challenges and made a series of recommendations to improve future UK–Russia security relations.
The report notes that risk reduction and confidence building are seen as ‘a particular challenge’ due to ‘the apparent absence of rules and the ability to effectively signal to each other, which had even existed during the Cold War'. To counter this, the participants at the meetings recommended further bilateral UK–Russian military engagement, with one UK participant saying ‘it is not a concession to Russia from the West and does not symbolise appeasement’. This could be done through existing forums, such as the NATO–Russia Council or the OSCE, or through a ‘new dedicated bilateral forum'.
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the Uni...atlanticcouncil
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do, a joint report by the Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, argues that to deter further aggression by the Kremlin and its surrogates, Ukraine urgently needs significant military assistance. Drawing on discussions with senior NATO and US officials, the authors—Ivo Daalder, Michele Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steven Pifer, James Stavridis, Strobe Talbott, and Charles Wald—argue that in order to enable Ukraine to defend itself, the US government should provide Ukraine $3 billion in both lethal and nonlethal military assistance over the next three years.
If President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine is not stopped, the West can expect further Kremlin provocations elsewhere. Although Western economic sanctions have made it clear that the price of Russian aggression will be the Russian economy, these measures have not been able to curb the Kremlin’s revisionist foreign policy. Providing US military assistance to Ukraine is critical to the country’s defense and to preserving peace and stability in Europe, Eurasia, and beyond.
Managing the Cold Peace between Russia and the West. Fifth Task Force Positio...Russian Council
A group of prominent Members and Supporters of the Pan-European Task Force on Cooperation in Greater Europe, including former foreign and defence ministers and senior officials from Russia, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Poland, Germany, Italy and Finland has joined forces to appeal to the leadership of the countries in the Euro-Atlantic area to halt the downward spiral in West-Russia relations and manage its risks better through developing a more stable and sustainable security relationship.
Multilateral Approach to Nuclear Disarmament: Working paperRussian Council
Authors:
A.G. Savelyev, Dr. of Political Science; V.Z. Dvorkin, Dr. of Technical Science; V.I. Yesin, Ph.D. in Military Science; N.N. Detinov, A.V. Zagorsky, Ph.D. in History
The goal of this research is to examine one of the possible options to continue disarmament process involving all member states of the Big Five. This study represents
a vision of potential actions by Russia to engage third countries in the nuclear disarmament process at it subsequent stages, analyses the current state in nuclear sphere. The author develops the key idea, which could serve as a basis for multilateral
negotiations. The author takes into account viewpoints of the leading experts in the nuclear field, expressed in the interviews.
UNMANNED AERIAL vehicles (UAVs) have come of age in the last decade. Having first been used on a large scale by the American military for surveillance purposes in the Vietnam War, and having been improved through subsequent use by the Israelis in Lebanon and by NATO in Operation Allied Force in Kosovo, UAVs can now be found in arsenals all over the world for a variety of purposes.
Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia: the Russian-South Korean Experts ...Russian Council
In 2015 Russia and South Korea celebrate the 25th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations. Much has been accomplished, but significant potential for collaboration in Northeast Asia to address new and traditional threats remains untapped. In this analytical paper experts of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and Institute for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies (IREEES), Seoul National University (SNU) offer their vision of a comprehensive regional security architecture that meets Russian and South Korean national interests. Working on building a new security system in Northeast Asia should begin with the formation of multilateral partnerships on specific security issues, i.e. energy security, nuclear safety, transport security, food security and international information security.
National security&accelerating risks of climate change may 2014ngocjos
Climate Change Deemed Growing Security Threat by Military Researchers
The accelerating rate of climate change poses a severe risk to national security and acts as a catalyst for global political conflict by the New York Times
This report is the result of a series of brainstorming sessions between American, Russian, and European
experts funded by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York.
The Atlantic Council is grateful for the leadership of the Honorable Ellen Tauscher and Minister Igor Ivanov,
who led the team in an effort to keep the dialogue open and frank at a challenging time for European
security, as 2014 events in Ukraine unravelled the post-Cold War security order. The Council wishes to
acknowledge the contributions of American experts: Walter Slocombe, Hans Binnendijk, Paul Fritch, and
those who have wished to remain unnamed, as well as the European experts: Lukasz Kulesa, Markus Kaim,
and Paal Hilde, who worked under the leadership of Ian Kearns and the European Leadership Network
(ELN). The Council also thanks the group of Russian experts: Andrey Kortunov, Andrei Zagorski, and Irina
Busygina, who worked under the leadership of the Russian International Affairs Council to contribute
the Russian perspective; and, fially, the Director and coordinator of the project, Isabelle François, for the
diffiult task of bringing diverging views together into one fial publication.
The Atlantic Council offered a platform to keep channels of communication open and for different
views to be expressed. Not surprisingly, in the months that followed events in Ukraine, it proved
impossible to narrow the differences and develop a common, action-oriented approach to the challenge
of rebuilding the European security order. We aimed instead for a necessary fist step of listening to each
other and reflcting on the signifiant differences in the Western and Russian approaches. Our debates
focused on a possible way forward by gaining clarity on the interests at stake, from the US, European,
and Russian perspectives, in order to better defie whether and where common interests may still lie
and how best to advance them. The need for managing our differences in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis
will continue to require signifiant efforts on the part of decision-makers, experts, offiials, international
organizations, and nongovernmental organizations, and will likely take time and strategic patience.
We hope that this report will contribute to a better understanding and appreciation for the differences
in terms of the respective US, European, and Russian positions, in order to better prepare, when the time
comes, for bridging the gap and bring back stability, security, and prosperity to the whole of Europe.
This report is the result of a series of brainstorming sessions that took place between the summer of 2013 and the winter of 2014-2015, and between American, Russian, and European experts. The teams were led by Ellen Tauscher, the Vice Chair of the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, and Igor Ivanov, the president of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and former Foreign Minister of Russia, in an effort to keep the dialogue open and frank at a challenging time for European security. Not surprisingly, as events in Ukraine unravelled the post-Cold War security order, it proved impossible to narrow the differences and develop a common, action-oriented approach to the challenge of rebuilding the European security order. The report, a project of the Atlantic Council, the European Leadership Network (ELN), and RIAC is focused instead on the necessary first step of listening to each other and reflecting on the significant differences in the Western and Russian approaches. Discussions focused on gaining clarity on the interests at stake, from the US, European, and Russian perspectives, in order to better define whether and where common interests may still lie and how best to advance them. The report clearly points to the fact that managing the differences in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis will continue to require significant efforts on the part of decision-makers, experts, officials, international organizations, and will take time and strategic patience.
Предложения по российско-американскому сотрудничеству в сфере кибербезопаснос...Russian Council
Текущее состояние российско-американских отношений отличается высоким уровнем недоверия. Напряженность нарастала в течение трех лет, государства наложили друг на друга санкции, активно распространяют пропаганду и обмениваются взаимными обвинениями. Ситуация в двусторонних отношениях непредсказуема: если эскалация продолжится, вся система международных отношений может быть дестабилизована. Текущее ухудшение отношений между двумя странами затронуло все сферы взаимодействия, включая кибербезопасность.
Взаимодействие в сфере кибербезопасности – достаточно новый аспект, который никогда не входил в число приоритетных направлений наравне с борьбой с терроризмом, украинским и сирийским кризисами, экономическими санкциями и др.
Несмотря на то, что государства по обе стороны Атлантического океана осознают необходимость решения ключевых вопросов кибербезопасности, мнения сторон относительно необходимых мер и применения норм международного права к вопросам киберпространства расходятся.
В этой связи требуется работа по двум направлениям. Первое – сотрудничество в предотвращении киберпреступлений и принятие мер по борьбе с кибертерроризмом. Россия и США не могут найти общий язык при обсуждении предотвращения киберпреступлений. Отчасти это вызвано отсутствием общепринятой терминологии применительно к киберпространству.
Кроме того, анонимность киберпреступлений не только затрудняет процесс атрибуции, но и зачастую подрывает статус-кво в двусторонних отношениях. Второе направление включает в себя разработку норм поведения, а также защиту объектов критической инфраструктуры от кибератак. Хотя группа правительственных экспертов ООН ведет активную работу над разработкой правил игры, государствам необходимо найти способы применения существующих и потенциальных норм на практике. Также необходимо дать четкие определения объектам критической инфраструктуры и киберпреступлений.
На данном этапе критически важно продолжение диалога и налаживание взаимопонимания при помощи экспертных встреч и публикаций, сотрудничества на техническом уровне и сбалансированного участия СМИ.
На протяжении 2016 г. российские и американские эксперты по вопросам кибербезопасности совместно работали над предложениями по решению проблем в двусторонних отношениях, связанных с этой сферой.
В результате двусторонних усилий Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД) и Институт Восток-Запад (ИВЗ) выделили ряд вызовов и проблем в сфере кибербезопасности, а также предложений по их решению для улучшения российско-американского сотрудничества в киберпространстве. Стороны выражают надежду, что изложенные ниже предложения смогут лечь в основу будущего сотрудничества.
A Report of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program and the Russian International Affairs Council
At a time when tension between the US and Russia is higher than it has been in decades, we cannot forget that the relationship between these two countries is among the most important for global security. On any number of issues, from arms control to the Middle East, failure of the U.S. and Russia to communicate will make things much, much worse, with repercussions that will last for generations and affect the entire world. For this reason, CSIS and RIAC convened some of Russia’s and America’s top experts to think through the future of the bilateral relationship. The result is a series of papers that identify both the spheres where coordination is crucial and those where it may be possible, responding to mutual interests and potentially helping to stabilize the relationship and buffer against conflict in the future. For both, they offer concrete recommendations and a clear-eyed take on what can, and what cannot be done.
The analyses that follow examine prospects for Russia-U.S. cooperation in several crucial regions and fields: economics, energy, the Arctic, Euro-Atlantic security, the Middle East, strategic stability, cybersecurity, and countering terrorism and extremism. They offer actionable recommendations in each area, some of which can, and should be undertaken today, and some of which should be considered by policymakers in Moscow and Washington as they chart a course through dangerous and uncertain times.
More Related Content
Similar to Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
Managing the Cold Peace between Russia and the West. Fifth Task Force Positio...Russian Council
A group of prominent Members and Supporters of the Pan-European Task Force on Cooperation in Greater Europe, including former foreign and defence ministers and senior officials from Russia, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Poland, Germany, Italy and Finland has joined forces to appeal to the leadership of the countries in the Euro-Atlantic area to halt the downward spiral in West-Russia relations and manage its risks better through developing a more stable and sustainable security relationship.
Multilateral Approach to Nuclear Disarmament: Working paperRussian Council
Authors:
A.G. Savelyev, Dr. of Political Science; V.Z. Dvorkin, Dr. of Technical Science; V.I. Yesin, Ph.D. in Military Science; N.N. Detinov, A.V. Zagorsky, Ph.D. in History
The goal of this research is to examine one of the possible options to continue disarmament process involving all member states of the Big Five. This study represents
a vision of potential actions by Russia to engage third countries in the nuclear disarmament process at it subsequent stages, analyses the current state in nuclear sphere. The author develops the key idea, which could serve as a basis for multilateral
negotiations. The author takes into account viewpoints of the leading experts in the nuclear field, expressed in the interviews.
UNMANNED AERIAL vehicles (UAVs) have come of age in the last decade. Having first been used on a large scale by the American military for surveillance purposes in the Vietnam War, and having been improved through subsequent use by the Israelis in Lebanon and by NATO in Operation Allied Force in Kosovo, UAVs can now be found in arsenals all over the world for a variety of purposes.
Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia: the Russian-South Korean Experts ...Russian Council
In 2015 Russia and South Korea celebrate the 25th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations. Much has been accomplished, but significant potential for collaboration in Northeast Asia to address new and traditional threats remains untapped. In this analytical paper experts of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and Institute for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies (IREEES), Seoul National University (SNU) offer their vision of a comprehensive regional security architecture that meets Russian and South Korean national interests. Working on building a new security system in Northeast Asia should begin with the formation of multilateral partnerships on specific security issues, i.e. energy security, nuclear safety, transport security, food security and international information security.
National security&accelerating risks of climate change may 2014ngocjos
Climate Change Deemed Growing Security Threat by Military Researchers
The accelerating rate of climate change poses a severe risk to national security and acts as a catalyst for global political conflict by the New York Times
This report is the result of a series of brainstorming sessions between American, Russian, and European
experts funded by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York.
The Atlantic Council is grateful for the leadership of the Honorable Ellen Tauscher and Minister Igor Ivanov,
who led the team in an effort to keep the dialogue open and frank at a challenging time for European
security, as 2014 events in Ukraine unravelled the post-Cold War security order. The Council wishes to
acknowledge the contributions of American experts: Walter Slocombe, Hans Binnendijk, Paul Fritch, and
those who have wished to remain unnamed, as well as the European experts: Lukasz Kulesa, Markus Kaim,
and Paal Hilde, who worked under the leadership of Ian Kearns and the European Leadership Network
(ELN). The Council also thanks the group of Russian experts: Andrey Kortunov, Andrei Zagorski, and Irina
Busygina, who worked under the leadership of the Russian International Affairs Council to contribute
the Russian perspective; and, fially, the Director and coordinator of the project, Isabelle François, for the
diffiult task of bringing diverging views together into one fial publication.
The Atlantic Council offered a platform to keep channels of communication open and for different
views to be expressed. Not surprisingly, in the months that followed events in Ukraine, it proved
impossible to narrow the differences and develop a common, action-oriented approach to the challenge
of rebuilding the European security order. We aimed instead for a necessary fist step of listening to each
other and reflcting on the signifiant differences in the Western and Russian approaches. Our debates
focused on a possible way forward by gaining clarity on the interests at stake, from the US, European,
and Russian perspectives, in order to better defie whether and where common interests may still lie
and how best to advance them. The need for managing our differences in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis
will continue to require signifiant efforts on the part of decision-makers, experts, offiials, international
organizations, and nongovernmental organizations, and will likely take time and strategic patience.
We hope that this report will contribute to a better understanding and appreciation for the differences
in terms of the respective US, European, and Russian positions, in order to better prepare, when the time
comes, for bridging the gap and bring back stability, security, and prosperity to the whole of Europe.
This report is the result of a series of brainstorming sessions that took place between the summer of 2013 and the winter of 2014-2015, and between American, Russian, and European experts. The teams were led by Ellen Tauscher, the Vice Chair of the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, and Igor Ivanov, the president of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and former Foreign Minister of Russia, in an effort to keep the dialogue open and frank at a challenging time for European security. Not surprisingly, as events in Ukraine unravelled the post-Cold War security order, it proved impossible to narrow the differences and develop a common, action-oriented approach to the challenge of rebuilding the European security order. The report, a project of the Atlantic Council, the European Leadership Network (ELN), and RIAC is focused instead on the necessary first step of listening to each other and reflecting on the significant differences in the Western and Russian approaches. Discussions focused on gaining clarity on the interests at stake, from the US, European, and Russian perspectives, in order to better define whether and where common interests may still lie and how best to advance them. The report clearly points to the fact that managing the differences in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis will continue to require significant efforts on the part of decision-makers, experts, officials, international organizations, and will take time and strategic patience.
Предложения по российско-американскому сотрудничеству в сфере кибербезопаснос...Russian Council
Текущее состояние российско-американских отношений отличается высоким уровнем недоверия. Напряженность нарастала в течение трех лет, государства наложили друг на друга санкции, активно распространяют пропаганду и обмениваются взаимными обвинениями. Ситуация в двусторонних отношениях непредсказуема: если эскалация продолжится, вся система международных отношений может быть дестабилизована. Текущее ухудшение отношений между двумя странами затронуло все сферы взаимодействия, включая кибербезопасность.
Взаимодействие в сфере кибербезопасности – достаточно новый аспект, который никогда не входил в число приоритетных направлений наравне с борьбой с терроризмом, украинским и сирийским кризисами, экономическими санкциями и др.
Несмотря на то, что государства по обе стороны Атлантического океана осознают необходимость решения ключевых вопросов кибербезопасности, мнения сторон относительно необходимых мер и применения норм международного права к вопросам киберпространства расходятся.
В этой связи требуется работа по двум направлениям. Первое – сотрудничество в предотвращении киберпреступлений и принятие мер по борьбе с кибертерроризмом. Россия и США не могут найти общий язык при обсуждении предотвращения киберпреступлений. Отчасти это вызвано отсутствием общепринятой терминологии применительно к киберпространству.
Кроме того, анонимность киберпреступлений не только затрудняет процесс атрибуции, но и зачастую подрывает статус-кво в двусторонних отношениях. Второе направление включает в себя разработку норм поведения, а также защиту объектов критической инфраструктуры от кибератак. Хотя группа правительственных экспертов ООН ведет активную работу над разработкой правил игры, государствам необходимо найти способы применения существующих и потенциальных норм на практике. Также необходимо дать четкие определения объектам критической инфраструктуры и киберпреступлений.
На данном этапе критически важно продолжение диалога и налаживание взаимопонимания при помощи экспертных встреч и публикаций, сотрудничества на техническом уровне и сбалансированного участия СМИ.
На протяжении 2016 г. российские и американские эксперты по вопросам кибербезопасности совместно работали над предложениями по решению проблем в двусторонних отношениях, связанных с этой сферой.
В результате двусторонних усилий Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД) и Институт Восток-Запад (ИВЗ) выделили ряд вызовов и проблем в сфере кибербезопасности, а также предложений по их решению для улучшения российско-американского сотрудничества в киберпространстве. Стороны выражают надежду, что изложенные ниже предложения смогут лечь в основу будущего сотрудничества.
A Report of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program and the Russian International Affairs Council
At a time when tension between the US and Russia is higher than it has been in decades, we cannot forget that the relationship between these two countries is among the most important for global security. On any number of issues, from arms control to the Middle East, failure of the U.S. and Russia to communicate will make things much, much worse, with repercussions that will last for generations and affect the entire world. For this reason, CSIS and RIAC convened some of Russia’s and America’s top experts to think through the future of the bilateral relationship. The result is a series of papers that identify both the spheres where coordination is crucial and those where it may be possible, responding to mutual interests and potentially helping to stabilize the relationship and buffer against conflict in the future. For both, they offer concrete recommendations and a clear-eyed take on what can, and what cannot be done.
The analyses that follow examine prospects for Russia-U.S. cooperation in several crucial regions and fields: economics, energy, the Arctic, Euro-Atlantic security, the Middle East, strategic stability, cybersecurity, and countering terrorism and extremism. They offer actionable recommendations in each area, some of which can, and should be undertaken today, and some of which should be considered by policymakers in Moscow and Washington as they chart a course through dangerous and uncertain times.
Презентация Лоуренса Макдоннелла. Дебаты «Fake News и мировая политика»Russian Council
18 июля 2017 г. в библиотеке им. Ф.М. Достоевского РСМД провел дебаты на тему «Fake News и мировая политика».
Лекторами на мероприятии выступили бывший корреспондент ВВС в Москве Лоуренс Макдоннелл и заместитель редактора международного отдела РБК, бывший главный редактор англоязычного аналитического ресурса Russia Direct Павел Кошкин. В роли модератора дискуссии выступал менеджер по связям со СМИ и правительственными структурами РСМД Николай Маркоткин.
Web Internationalization of Russian Universities (2016–2017). Report No. 31/2017Russian Council
This report is the result of a new stage in the research of the online English-language resources on the websites of Russian universities and is a follow-up to the initial report produced by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) entitled “Web Internationalization: Russian Universities” in 2015.
The authors developed a methodology for assessing the English-language websites of universities. The online resources of 47 universities were analysed and compared with those of 11 QS Top 100 World Universities.
The results of the study are presented in the form of a ranking of the English-language websites of Russian universities. An analysis of common problems and a list of recommendations have also been provided.
Россия и Запад: как управлять «холодным миром»?Russian Council
Пятый позиционный документ Рабочей группы проекта «Строительство Большой Европы: необходимые меры до 2030 г.».
Группа видных членов и сторонников Панъевропейской Рабочей группы по сотрудничеству в Большой Европе, в которую входят бывшие министры иностранных дел и обороны, а также высшие должностные лица России, Великобритании, Турции, Польши, Германии, Италии и Финляндии, призвала руководство стран евроатлантического региона остановить дальнейшее раскручивание нисходящей спирали в отношениях между Россией и Западом и эффективно управлять рисками путем повышения стабильности в сфере безопасности.
Отмечая серьезность ситуации, члены Рабочей группы предупреждают, что она чревата военной конфронтацией между Россией и Западом — как умышленной, так и ненамеренной. Отдавая себе отчет в том, что рассчитывать на скорое улучшение отношений не приходится, они считают, что стабилизация ситуации требует общей приверженности всех стран евроатлантического региона отказу от применения силы, более осторожного и сдержанного подхода к наращиванию военного потенциала и активного использования возможностей контроля над вооружениями и укрепления доверия.
Theses on Russia’s Foreign Policy and Global Positioning (2017–2024)Russian Council
5 years ago, in 2012, Postulates on Russia's Foreign Policy (2012-2018) marked the beginning of RIAC’s project work. This report has become RIAC’s trademark for several years, its amendments being used in the updated Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation.
The world is now standing at a road fork, and Russia’s key task is to ensure no era of extremes, to promote comfortable and manageable international environment without limitations, conflicts, and splits.
Addressing the changed international situation, quantitative and qualitative growth of challenges for Russia’s foreign policy RIAC and Center for Strategic Research (CSR) presented Theses on Russia’s Foreign Policy and Global Positioning (2017–2024).
As part of the project, 30 interviews were conducted with RIAC members: prominent diplomats, major international relations experts, media executives and entrepreneurs. As a separate part of the project, a series of case studies were conducted with the participation of experts and RIAC members.
.
The theses were based upon the results of a parallel study conducted by a team of researchers at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Text: Ivan Timofeev, RIAC Director of Programs.
Edited by Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General and Sergey Utkin, Head of Foreign and Security Policy Department of the Centre for Strategic Research.
Тезисы по внешней политике и позиционированию России в мире (2017–2024 гг.)Russian Council
5 лет назад, в 2012 г. РСМД открыл проектную деятельность изданием Тезисов о внешней политики России (2012–2018). Доклад стал визитной карточкой Совета на несколько лет, а предложения были использованы в новой редакции Концепции внешней политики РФ.
Сейчас мир стоит на развилке, перед Россией стоит задача не допустить новой эпохи крайностей, способствовать созданию комфортной, управляемой международной среды без ограничительных линий, конфликтов и расколов.
Отвечая на изменившуюся международную ситуацию, количественный и качественный рост вызовов для российской внешней политики, РСМД и Центр стратегических разработок (ЦСР) представили «Тезисы по внешней политике и позиционированию России в мире».
В рамках проекта было проведено 30 интервью с членами РСМД — известными дипломатами, крупными учеными-международниками, руководителями СМИ, представителями бизнеса.
Отдельной составляющей проекта стала серия ситуационных анализов с участием экспертов и сотрудников РСМД.
Подготовке тезисов помогли результаты работы группы ученых из Института мировой
экономики и международных отношений имени Е. М. Примакова (ИМЭМО РАН), которая велась параллельно с исследованием РСМД.
Автор текста: Иван Тимофеев, программный директор РСМД.
Под редакцией: Андрея Кортунова, генерального директора РСМД и Сергея Уткина, руководителя направления «Внешняя политика и безопасность» ЦСР.
70th Anniversary of Russia-India Relations: New Horizons of Privileged Partne...Russian Council
In 2017, Russia and India celebrate the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Over the years, the two states have steadily developed mutually beneficial ties. Their cooperation has achieved the level of special and privileged strategic partnership. Regular contacts between the two leaders have become an established practice. On June 1–2, 2017, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi is visiting Russia. On May 30, 2017, President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s article “Russia and India: 70 years together” was published in the Times of India. In the article the Russian President stated that the enormous potential of cooperation between the two great powers will be further explored for the benefit of the peoples of India and Russia and the international community in general.
However, in order to make full use of the collaboration potential, ties between Russia and India should be taken to a qualitatively new level. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) have drafted a joint report in order to open up a new discussion on the prospects of Russia-India relations and the steps required to develop them further. The authors express hope that ideas and recommendations expressed in the paper will provide the necessary expert support for state level contacts and will be helpful in foreign policy decision-making by the two governments.
70-летие дипломатических отношений России и Индии: Новые горизонты привилегир...Russian Council
В 2017 г. Россия и Индия отмечают 70-летие дипломатических отношений. Россия и Индия последовательно формировали взаимовыгодные отношения; их взаимодействие достигло уровня особо привилегированного стратегического партнерства. Регулярные контакты лидеров двух стран вошли в практику российско-индийских отношений. 1–2 июня 2017 г. состоялся официальный визит премьер-министра Н. Моди в Россию. 30 мая 2017 г. в газете The Times of India опубликована статья президента РФ В. Путина «Россия и Индия: 70 лет вместе». В материале президент России выразил уверенность, что «колоссальный потенциал взаимодействия двух великих держав будет и впредь реализовываться на благо народов России и Индии, международного сообщества в целом».
Однако для полноценного использования потенциала сотрудничества необходимо вывести российско-индийские связи на качественно новый уровень. Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД) и Международный фонд им. Вивекананды (VIF) подготовили совместный доклад, призванный открыть широкую экспертную дискуссию о перспективах развития отношений между двумя странами, а также мерах, необходимых для дальнейшего совершенствования и повышения эффективности этих отношений.
Авторы выражают надежду, что идеи и рекомендации, изложенные в данном документе, окажутся востребованными на уровне межгосударственных контактов и будут полезны государственным органам обеих стран при принятии соответствующих внешнеполитических решений.
Дорожная карта российско-американских отношенийRussian Council
Доклад – результат работы ведущих российских и американских экспертов. Основная идея доклада состоит в том, что даже в обстановке геополитической напряженности и взаимного недоверия Россия и США должны сотрудничать. И не только в тех областях, где от их взаимодействия зависит глобальная безопасность, но и в более широком спектре направлений, в которых конкретные совместные действия не менее важны для нормализации отношений между двумя странами и для предотвращения конфликтов в будущем. В докладе анализируются перспективы российско-американского сотрудничества в таких важнейших регионах и сферах как Арктика, Ближний Восток, экономика, энергетика, евроатлантическая безопасность, стратегическая стабильность, кибербезопасность, борьба с терроризмом и экстремизмом. В докладе предлагаются практические рекомендации по налаживанию сотрудничества на каждом из направлений.
Lies, Spies and Big Data: How Fake News Is Rewriting Political LandscapesRussian Council
On November 7, 2016, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States after a bitterly-fought campaign against Hillary Clinton. The election was very closely-run, with Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote, but losing the presidency based on the U.S. electoral college structure. However, months after Donald Trump was declared President of the United States, questions remain about the legitimacy of the U.S. elections. The central issues are the emergence and use of so-called ‘Fake News’ and the accusation that Russia, through espionage and online hacking operations, sought to influence the presidential elections to promote Donald Trump and denigrate the reputation of Hillary Clinton.
The issues thrown up in the wake of the U.S. presidential election have fundamentally undermined trust in the workings of the international media and further damaged U.S.–Russia relations. A report by the U.S. intelligence services accusing Russia of attempting to influence the outcome of the election, prepared for President Obama and published in the election’s immediate aftermath, led to the expulsion1 of 35 Russian diplomats from Washington just days after the results were announced. President Putin, on the other hand, opted not to expel any U.S. diplomats from Russia. The investigation into Russia’s involvement and influence on the U.S. elections continues today.
This policy brief provides an overview of how the gathering and dissemination of news has changed in a globalized digital environment, how consumers digest and share news at an ever-increasing pace, and how the management of big data can influence electorates across borders. It will also define ‘fake news’ and the extent to which it might have influenced the results of the U.S. elections.
Damage Assessment: EU-Russia relations in crisisRussian Council
A new Special Report edited by Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and European Leadership Network (ELN) assesses the damage to EU-Russia relations after three years of crisis.
Featuring Russian and European experts, the report presents their analysis on fundamental aspects of deteriorating EU-Russia relations, including economic impact, political relations and people-to-people contact. For each of these areas the Russian experts present and assess developments inside their own country, while Western authors describe the situation at the EU level and in selected European Union countries.
Перспективы развития проекта ЕАЭС к 2025 годуRussian Council
Рабочая тетрадь подготовлена Российским советом по международным делам (РСМД) в рамках проекта «Евразийская экономическая интеграция: эффективные модели взаимодействия экспертов».
Цель издания — представить взгляды экспертов на развитие проекта ЕАЭС в перспективе до 2025 г. В издании рассмотрены некоторые перспективные направления интеграции: транспорт и логистика, агропромышленная политика, свобода перемещения товаров, трудовых ресурсов, образование на пространстве ЕАЭС, международные связи ЕАЭС в перспективе до 2025 г. Безусловно, этот перечень не является исчерпывающим с точки зрения перспективных направлений интеграции, однако он представляется реализуемым с учетом национальных приоритетов и ожиданий государств — членов Союза, анализу которых посвящен отдельный раздел тетради, и без понимания которых едва ли возможна проработка общих перспективных направлений интеграции.
Экономическое развитие стран ЕАЭС и перспективы экономической интеграции до 2...Russian Council
Евразийский экономический союз создавался для укрепления национальных экономик и возможностей государств–членов в мировой экономике при условии создания четырех свобод – передвижения товаров, услуг, финансов и рабочей силы. Его создание пришлось как на период мировой экономической нестабильности, так и геополитических изменений в Евразии, что повлияло на ситуацию внутри ЕАЭС. Сегодня актуален вопрос перспективности развития экономик государств–членов в формате их участия в евразийском интеграционном проекте.
В аналитической записке рассматриваются вопросы сочетаемости национальных и интеграционных интересов в программах развития как самих стран, так и в рамках ЕАЭС в перспективе до 2025 г.
Российско-британский диалог по проблемам безопасности: перспективы двусторонн...Russian Council
В настоящее время российско-британские отношения находятся в глубоком кризисе. Удастся ли странам восстановить регулярный и системный диалог на высшем уровне? Каковы перспективы сотрудничества России и Великобритании в сфере безопасности, борьбы с международным терроризмом и противодействия насильственному экстремизму, в том числе на Большом Ближнем Востоке? Какие механизмы необходимо выработать для укрепления мер доверия, предотвращения радикализации и развития сотрудничества в борьбе с киберпреступностью. Эти и другие вопросы, связанные с прошлым, настоящим и будущим российско-британских отношений в области безопасности рассматриваются в совместном докладе Российского совета по международным делам (РСМД) и Королевского объединенного института оборонных исследований (RUSI).
Defining Dialogue: How to Manage Russia-UK Security RelationsRussian Council
At present, Russian-British relations are in deep crisis.
Will countries be able to restore a regular and systematic dialogue at the highest level?
What are the prospects for cooperation between Russia and Britain in the sphere of security, combating international terrorism and countering extremism, including in the Greater Middle East?
What mechanisms need to be worked out to strengthen confidence-building measures, prevent radicalization and develop cooperation in the fight against cybercrime.
These and other issues related to the past, present and future of Russian-British security relations are discussed in the joint report of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI).
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
1. Foreword by Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov, and Sam Nunn
By Robert E. Berls, Jr., and Leon Ratz
Rising Nuclear Dangers:
Steps to Reduce Risks in the
Euro-Atlantic Region
SUMMARY
International statesmen Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov, and
Sam Nunn call on Western and Russian leaders to take immediate steps to
reduce the risk of a dangerous military confrontation. This report offers
recommendations to avoid accidents, enhance predictability, and build
confidence.
DECEMBER 2016
NTI Paper
3. NTI Paper 1 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
Foreword
Russia and the West are at a dangerous crossroads. During the past several years, we have been in a state of
escalating tension, trapped in a downward spiral of antagonism and distrust. With our militaries moving
closer—in the skies over the Baltic Sea, in the depths of the North Atlantic, and across the Middle East—the
risks of miscalculation or accident and escalation are unacceptably high. Unless
Western and Russian leaders take immediate steps to improve transparency and
enhance predictability, they may inadvertently risk a deadly confrontation.
This paper, which is based on a survey of leading defense and security experts
from the United States, Russia, and Europe, puts forward nine urgent and practical
recommendations to ensure that we avoid the worst kind of catastrophe: a nuclear
incident involving NATO and Russian forces. The measures are focused on
preventing accidents, enhancing predictability, and building confidence. These
include recommendations to fly military aircraft with transponders turned on, to
establish “safe distance” protocols for ships and aircraft, to demonstrate restraint
in military exercises, and to improve transparency for deployments of both missile
and missile defense systems.
Perhaps most importantly, this paper recommends that Western and Russian
leaders initiate a dialogue focused on strategic stability and nuclear risk reduction. Dialogue should never
be seen as a sign of weakness—it is essential for nuclear risk reduction to protect our citizens. Military-to-
military discussions should be at the top of the list of near-term steps to reduce risk.
Even during the darkest days of the Cold War, we maintained robust channels of communication to prevent
nuclear accidents, miscalculations, or nuclear escalation. Today, nearly all of these channels have eroded, and
our political and military leaders seldom talk to one another. Simply put, it is national security malpractice
that today we have virtually no dialogue among our capitals on reducing nuclear risks. This must change.
Absent engagement, nuclear risks will only continue to increase, endangering all of us. The time to act on
our common security interests is now.
Des Browne, Nuclear Threat Initiative, Igor Ivanov, Russian International Affairs Council
European Leadership Network
Wolfgang Ischinger, Munich Security Conference Sam Nunn, Nuclear Threat Initiative
The four were co-chairs of Building Mutual Security, a Track II dialogue and report that proposed a new
approach to security in the Euro-Atlantic region and addressed the most significant obstacle: a corrosive lack of
trust, fueled by historical animosities and present uncertainties in the European and global security landscape.
Perhaps most
importantly, this
paper recommends
that Western and
Russian leaders
initiate a dialogue
focused on strategic
stability and nuclear
risk reduction.
4. NTI Paper 2 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
Introduction
The risk of a deadly miscalculation or accident involving Western or Russian armed forces continues to rise.
With political tensions being this high and absent robust channels of communication, nearly every close
encounter between NATO and Russian military assets carries an unacceptable risk of escalation.
Last year, in Rising Nuclear Dangers: Assessing the Risk of Nuclear Use in the Euro-
Atlantic Region, the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) described a combination of
factors that contributed to the likelihood of accident or miscalculation that could
lead to nuclear use. The list included:
• A severe deficit of trust,
• Irreconcilable narratives and threat perceptions,
• Domestic political imperatives,
• Broken channels of communication,
• Alliance politics,
• Failing safeguards to prevent nuclear use,
• Conventional force disparity, and
• Eroding nuclear expertise.
Unfortunately, one year later, these factors have persisted or have gotten worse, while safeguards to prevent
escalation are still not in place. Consequently, the risk of nuclear use, particularly as a result of accident or
miscalculation, continues to rise and is now higher than any period since the end of the Cold War.
Earlier this year, NTI surveyed a group of leading experts1
from the United States, Russia, and Europe on
measures that could be taken to reduce the risk of miscalculation or accident. The experts proposed a range
of options, some feasible in the short term but others impractical under the current political circumstances.
This paper puts forth those proposals that could realistically be implemented in the first few months of
2017, if the political will exists in Moscow and Western capitals. These proposals are grouped under three
broad objectives: preventing accidents, enhancing predictability, and building confidence. Achieving these
objectives will neither restore trust nor resolve the many profound differences between Russia and the West.
But doing so might avert the most significant consequences and would serve the national interests of all
parties.
1
The full list of surveyed experts can be found at the end of this paper.
With political
tensions being this
high and absent
robust channels of
communication,
nearly every
close encounter
between NATO and
Russian military
assets carries an
unacceptable risk
of escalation.
5. NTI Paper 3 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
Recommendations
Measures to Prevent Accidents
Moscow, Brussels, and Washington must take immediate steps to prevent accidents involving collisions of
aircraft or naval vessels and stop irresponsible or accidental incursions into sovereign territory. The following
measures are intended to minimize such risks.
1. Require all military aircraft to fly with transponders turned on.
U.S. and NATO officials should reconsider their September 2016 decision to reject a Russian proposal
requiring all military aircraft flying over the Baltic Sea to fly with their transponders turned on.2
According
to press reports, NATO officials rebuffed the Russian proposal citing Moscow’s refusal to consider measures
to limit dangerous military exercises. The two issues should not be linked. Achieving an agreement on
aircraft incident prevention, particularly in the Baltic Sea and the Nordic region, would represent important
progress on risk reduction. Skepticism regarding Russian implementation is warranted—but the absence of
such an agreement is inherently dangerous. The agreement should include a dispute settlement mechanism,
such as a standing Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) staffed by Russian and NATO personnel, which
could help resolve disputes and become a platform for information exchange. The October 2015 agreement
between the United States and Russia on “de-confliction” of military operations over Syria, which remains
in effect, could serve as a model for aircraft incident prevention talks between officials from the United
States, NATO, and Russia.
2. Agree on a “safe distance limitation” on U.S. and Russian aircraft and
ships in international airspace and waters.
Although existing treaties between Moscow and Washington require naval vessels to “remain well clear [of
one another] to avoid risk of collision” and aircraft are instructed to “use the greatest caution and prudence
in approaching aircraft of the other Party,” the United States and Russia have not agreed on parameters
for how close their ships and planes can approach one another.3
This is, in part, due to practical military
requirements for routine objectives that are often mission-dependent. However, repeated incidents of close
military encounters involving U.S. and Russian aircraft and vessels in international airspace and waters
necessitate extraordinary measures to avoid accidental collisions. Therefore, the United States and Russia
2
Julian E. Barnes, “NATO Rejects Russian Air-Safety Proposal for Planes in Baltic Region,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 20, 2016, available at
www.wsj.com/articles/nato-rejects-russian-air-safety-proposal-for-planes-in-baltic-region-1474391644.
3
These obligations are codified in two bilateral agreements: the 1972 Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents On or Over the High Seas
(commonly referred to as INCSEA) and the 1989 Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities (DMA). They are also
mentioned in the multilateral 1972 International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (commonly referred to as the COLREGS or the
naval “Rules of the Road”).
6. NTI Paper 4 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
should hold a Special Review Meeting of the 1972 Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents On or Over
the High Seas to negotiate a “safe distance” limitation for ships and aircraft operating in near proximity of
one another.4
Exceptions could be made for aircraft and vessels on declared intercept missions. Protocols
should be established to expeditiously resolve disputes in the event of a violation. A similar agreement also
should be implemented between NATO and Russian armed forces.
3. Restore U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia military-to-military
communication.
A lack of routine communication between military officials heightens distrust and increases the risk of
miscalculation in the event of an accident or escalation. In 2014, NATO suspended all technical-level
interactions with Russia under the auspices of the NATO-Russia Council, effectively neutering the Council’s
ability to be used as a forum for crisis management or crisis avoidance. Likewise, since 2014 the United
States and Russia terminated most military-to-military contacts following the start of the Ukraine conflict,
except for exchanges of information related to the “de-confliction” agreement in Syria and those required
by treaty (such as the INCSEA and the DMA agreements). To minimize risks of accident, the NATO-Russia
Council should:
• Resume military-to-military contacts to create a technical-level forum for resolution of disputes on
airspace or territorial waters violations,
• Resume notifications and briefings regarding military exercises (both planned and snap exercises),
and
• Resume negotiation of other mechanisms to enhance crisis avoidance and crisis management.
Likewise, U.S. and Russian military commands should resume regular communication with the explicit
objective of crisis avoidance, with a first step of initiating regular meetings of representatives of the Russian
General Staff and the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff.
4
Although annual reviews of INCSEA continue to take place between U.S. and Russian naval representatives, more frequent reviews are
permitted under Article IX of the treaty.
7. NTI Paper 5 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
Measures to Enhance Predictability
The following measures are intended to help enhance predictability regarding military intentions and
capabilities, as well as to improve transparency of military activities in order to minimize risk of miscalculation
and dangerous escalation.
4. Address concerns about the deployment of nuclear-
capable ballistic missile systems and missile defense
systems in Europe.
In May 2016, the United States placed into operation the Aegis Ashore Ballistic
Missile Defense System in Romania, with a similar system scheduled to be
completed in Poland by 2018. In early October 2016, Russia deployed short-range,
nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missiles to its Kaliningrad enclave, with
temporarydeploymentsreportedin2014and2015.OfficialsinWesterncapitalsand
Moscow have accused each other of provocation with these deployments, calling
such actions “destabilizing” or “escalatory.”5
Given the absence of trust that exists
among all sides, particularly in the Baltic region, negotiators from NATO, Russia,
and the United States should negotiate a Memorandum of Understanding concerning predictability and
transparency of ballistic missile systems and missile defense systems in Europe. Specifically, the agreement
should include transparency visits to missile defense sites, exchanges of information about capabilities of
ballistic missile and ballistic missile defense systems, and a regular dialogue among officials and military
experts regarding deployments of such systems.
5. Reduce notification and observation thresholds for all military
exercises.
In light of increasing concerns about the scale and intention of military exercises in the Euro-Atlantic region,
officials from NATO and Russia should negotiate a reduction in notification and observation thresholds for
all military exercises, including snap exercises.6
Such a step would help improve military transparency and
restore predictability regarding the intentions of such exercises. Importantly, agreement should be reached
on inviting Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observers no more than 24 hours after
the start of a snap military exercise, lowering the current threshold from 72 hours. Moreover, the quotas
on inspections and evaluations in the 2011 Vienna Document should be raised in order to help reduce
concerns regarding unusual military activities.
5
Julian E. Barnes, “NATO Secretary General Says Russia’s Nuclear Threats Destabilizing,” Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2015, available at www.
wsj.com/articles/nato-secretary-general-says-russias-nuclear-threats-destabilizing-1432740612.
6
Such thresholds are established by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) 2011 Vienna Document on
Confidence- and Security-Building Measures.
Officials from NATO
and Russia should
negotiate a reduction
in notification
and observation
thresholds for all
military exercises.
8. NTI Paper 6 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
6. Refrain from incorporating nuclear or nuclear-capable forces into
military exercises.
In recent years, Russia has included nuclear or nuclear-capable forces in its large-scale military exercises,
signaling (intentionally or otherwise) readiness for a nuclear confrontation with the West. Such moves
are highly dangerous, creating strong incentives for reciprocal demonstrations of preparedness of nuclear
forces, thereby heightening tensions and increasing the risk of miscalculation or accident. Consequently, all
sides should commit to refrain from incorporating nuclear or nuclear-capable forces in military exercises.
Such a commitment could be enshrined in a Memorandum of Understanding between NATO and Russia,
which could be renewed every year.
Measures to Build Confidence
The following measures are intended to build confidence at multiple levels (political elites, military personnel,
and the general public) regarding the strategic intentions of each side—with a view to reduce domestic political
imperatives seeking further escalation and confrontation.
7. Jointly reaffirm at the highest political levels that “nuclear war cannot
be won and must never be fought.”
U.S. President Ronald Reagan introduced the phrase during his 1984 State of the Union Address, a statement
that he reaffirmed the following year jointly with Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev during a bilateral
summit in Geneva. This phrase has taken on renewed significance in light of heightened tensions between
the United States and Russia and should be reaffirmed by its leaders as soon as possible. The general public
in both countries should be reassured that neither side seeks war, that its leaders recognize the dangers
inherent in further escalation, and that they will take measures to minimize the
risk of nuclear confrontation. Such declarations should be made at the presidential
level, if possible, in order to have maximum effect in alleviating public concerns,
tempering political imperatives that favor escalation, and creating an atmosphere
that allows more substantive progress to be made on nuclear risk reduction and
arms control.
8. Stop reckless nuclear rhetoric.
Public officials and military leaders should refrain from making hyperbolic
or aggressive statements regarding nuclear capabilities. Such statements are
provocative, heighten distrust, and amount to reckless nuclear saber-rattling. There is a danger that
charged political rhetoric with respect to nuclear weapons will influence policy, practice, and doctrine,
thereby increasing the danger that nuclear weapons may more readily be employed in the event of a crisis.
Moreover, as NTI described in Rising Nuclear Dangers: Assessing the Risk of Nuclear Use in the Euro-Atlantic
Region, such rhetoric is particularly dangerous for a generation of political and military leaders with little
Public officials and
military leaders
should refrain from
making hyperbolic or
aggressive statements
regarding nuclear
capabilities.
9. NTI Paper 7 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
experience managing the brinksmanship of the Cold War—an experience that “made real” the consequences
of escalation and that tempered reactions to provocations or accidents. Absent such experience, loose
nuclear rhetoric becomes all the more dangerous, as it may lead to provocations, and heightens the risk of
miscalculation.
9. Launch a high-level dialogue on strategic stability and nuclear risk
reduction.
Irrespective of their profound differences, the United States and Russia bear a special responsibility to
maintaindialogueandachieveprogressonstrategicstability.Beyondtheconfidence-buildingandotherrisk-
reduction measures outlined in this paper, the two countries need to establish a channel of communication
for discussing long-term complex issues affecting strategic stability, including disagreements regarding
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty compliance, missile defense, non-strategic nuclear
weapons, and conventional (non-nuclear) strategic weapon systems such as Prompt Global Strike. It will
take years to resolve such disputes, but establishing a high-level channel of communication dedicated to
these issues is an important first step that could be implemented in the coming months.
10. NTI Paper 8 www.nti.org
Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region
Conclusion
As disagreements between Russia and the West multiply and deepen, both sides should ensure that such
differences have minimal effect on nuclear risks. Unfortunately, to date, neither has achieved meaningful
progress in reducing these risks. The steps outlined in this paper can reduce the likelihood of accident,
enhance predictability, and build confidence—but, to be implemented, they require the political will of
those in Moscow and Western capitals. The time for prudence is now.
Survey Respondents
Alexei Arbatov, Scholar-in-Residence, Carnegie Moscow Center
Stephen J. Blank, Senior Fellow, U.S. Army War College*
Andrew Futter, Associate Professor, University of Leicester
Nikolas Gvosdev, Professor, U.S. Naval War College*
Igor Istomin, Senior Lecturer, Moscow State Institute of International Relations
(MGIMO)
Jacob Kipp, Adjunct Professor, University of Kansas
Andrey Kortunov, Director General, Russian International Affairs Council
Lukasz Kulesa, Research Director, European Leadership Network
Roger McDermott, Senior Fellow, Jamestown Foundation
Oliver Meier, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Steven Pifer, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Simon Saradzhyan, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,
Harvard University
Ivan Timofeev, Director of Programs, Russian International Affairs Council
The views expressed in this report do not necessary reflect those of the experts listed
above, nor the institutions with which they are affiliated.
*Participated in his personal capacity.
11. About the Authors
Foreword
Des Browne (Lord Browne of Ladyton) is Vice Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. The former U.K.
Secretary of State for Defence also served as Convener for both the European Leadership Network and the
Top Level Group of UK Parliamentarians for Multilateral Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.
Wolfgang Ischinger is Chairman of the Munich Security Conference. The former German Ambassador to
the United Kingdom and to the United States also served as the German Deputy Foreign Minister.
Igor Ivanov is President of the Russian International Affairs Council. A professor at Moscow State Institute
for International Relations, Ivanov served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and
Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
Sam Nunn is Co-chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. A Distinguished
Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Nunn is a
former U.S. Senator from the state of Georgia.
Report
Robert E. Berls, Jr., is the Senior Advisor for Russia and Eurasia at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. A founding
staff member at NTI, Berls has directed or helped manage all of NTI’s projects in Russia addressing nuclear,
chemical, and biological threats. From 2002 to 2009, Berls was the director of NTI’s office in Moscow. His
career spans military, government, academia, and business. He served for 26 years in the U.S. Air Force,
rising to the rank of colonel. During the 1980s he served as air attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.
He was special assistant to the Secretary of Energy for Russia/NIS programs during the first Clinton
Administration. Berls holds a doctorate in Russian Area Studies from Georgetown University.
Leon Ratz is a Program Officer with the Nuclear Threat Initiative’s Materials Security and Minimization
Program. Ratz works on the security of military nuclear materials, Russian nuclear security, and other
nuclear security and non-proliferation matters. Prior to joining NTI, Ratz worked for the Pacific Northwest
National Laboratory as a policy specialist on Russian nuclear security in the Office for International Material
Protection and Cooperation in the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration. Ratz holds a master’s
degree from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.