Presentation to the Tillamook Futures Council on 4/19/2011. This is a draft document and contains copywrited material. Not for dissemination or use without expressed permission.

1. A Discussion ofCommunity Resilience What is it? How do we assess it? Does it relate to sustainability? Robert EmanuelOregon Sea Grant Extension

2. So, what do we mean by community resilience?

3. State, Capacity & Change “We define resilience, formally, as the capacityof a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure and feedbacks - and therefore the same identity.” --Walker et al. 2004

10. Blue Ball = “State” Basins = “Attractors” Basins + Ball = “Regime”

19. Downtown District Watershed Local Economy Agricultural Cooperative Wasteshed Forest Pasture Health Care Providers Network School District Local Timber Industry Fishery Local Government Transportation system Energy Grid

20. Tree growth rates Climate Demographics Slow moving variables Economic patterns Credit shifts Land ownership Biological Invasions Fast moving variables Forest Fires Diseases Weather Loss of a leader Market changes War Bankruptcy Thresholds or tipping points Natural Disasters Election Input Prices

21. Stored Released

22. Resilience Assessment is: Which basin are we in? Where in that basin? How to navigate the basin? Can we control the shape of the basin? Can we transform to a new state if necessary?

23. Assessing Resilience Identify a system Describe desirable & undesirable states Identify fast variables in system Identify slow variables in system Identify the thresholds in system Identify vulnerabilities to change Can we reduce or avoid these?

27. Sustainability meets Resilience Resilience Sustainability

28. Sustainability Community Basics Sustainable Energy Use* Sustainable Transportation* Sustainable Infrastructure** Sustainable Economics* Sustainable Natural Resources* Sustainable Solid Waste Management*

29. Tillamook CountyCommunity Sustainability & Resilience Action Plan Strategic Vision Community Vitality Community Resilience & Community Sustainability

30. Overlap Examples Conservation of natural resources Local sourcing of resources Appropriate, well-placed development Multiple modes of transportation Estuarine health Local energy sources Well planned infrastructure Inclusive, transparent governance Sustainable businesses Clear Floodplain Planning Good Communications Networks Strong local food systems Strong social capital

31. “Happiness is not the absence of problems but the ability to deal with them.” H. Jackson Brown, Jr.

32. Resources Resilience Alliance www.resalliance.org/index.php NOAA Coastal Services—Hazards & Climate Adaptation www.csc.noaa.gov/climate/ How Resilient is your coastal community? www.csc.noaa.gov/psc/riskmgmt/resilience.html