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Studying consumer drivers with Bayesian Networks Sensometrics meeting – St Catharines, Ontario – July 21st  2008
Bayesian Networks in a nutshell ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Real case study Slightly blinded for confidentiality reasons ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What are the consumer drivers of liking ? How do they relate to each other ?
Data presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Use this data to build a model explaining overall liking
[object Object],Discovering relations between variables Unsupervised learning ,[object Object],MDL = DL(network) + DL (data  |  network) Search Algorithm : maximum spanning tree (focus on the strongest relations) Overall Liking and Buying intention are let aside Network Score =
Discovering relations between variables  Quantifying the probabilistic relations  1/2 ,[object Object],[object Object]
0.41 12% 0.30 9% 0.12 3% 0.48 13% 0.18 5% 0.1 2% 0.39 11% 0.27 7% 0.33 9% 0.16 5% 0.17 5% 0.15 4% 0.16 : K-L Divergence 6% : contribution of the relation to the network ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],0.12 3% 0.41 12% Discovering relations between variables  Quantifying the probabilistic relations  2/2
Summarizing information Variable Clustering ,[object Object],[object Object],Ascendant Hierarchical Clustering Results 5 groups automatically identified
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Summarizing information Computing latent variables ,[object Object],Factor 1 summarizes mother’s sensory appreciation.
Modelling main dimensions and overall liking ,[object Object],3 Dimensions have a direct impact on Overall Liking :  - Mother sensory perception - Baby perceived enjoyment - Perception of health benefits Search Algorithm : EQ Latent variables and Overall Liking Network Score = 8178
Using the model… to understand the  precise role  of each driver The experience of the product by the mother, even before the baby eats the product, will impact … Mother sensory evaluation Probability that overall opinion >= 7 1. Overall Liking Probability that health benefits are perceived 2. Also perceived health benefits Mother sensory evaluation
Using the model… to understand the  combination  of drivers PERFORM LOOK STAGE AS A SCREENING PROCESS ! Imagine the mother is not satisfied by the sensory properties. But what happens if the baby seems happy though ? 2. BUT the baby seems happy Probability that overall opinion >= 7 = 9% (+ 6 points only !) + 1. Mother NOT satisfied by the sensory properties - 3% Mother sensory evaluation Probability that overall opinion >= 7
Using the model… to predict product optimization benefits  1/2 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Using the model… to predict product optimization benefits  2/2 ,[object Object],Effect of a reasonable colour optimization
Model validation ,[object Object],[object Object],Summary of the 10 discovered structures. Arc thickness represents the relation’s frequency : number of times the arc has been discovered in the 10 structures. 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 5 ,[object Object],1
CONCLUSION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CONCLUSION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sensory Data
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! Jouffe Lionel Managing Director [email_address] Craignou Fabien Data Mining Department Manager [email_address]

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Reperes Sensometrics 08 Driver Studies Using Bayesian Networks

  • 1. Studying consumer drivers with Bayesian Networks Sensometrics meeting – St Catharines, Ontario – July 21st 2008
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  • 11. Using the model… to understand the precise role of each driver The experience of the product by the mother, even before the baby eats the product, will impact … Mother sensory evaluation Probability that overall opinion >= 7 1. Overall Liking Probability that health benefits are perceived 2. Also perceived health benefits Mother sensory evaluation
  • 12. Using the model… to understand the combination of drivers PERFORM LOOK STAGE AS A SCREENING PROCESS ! Imagine the mother is not satisfied by the sensory properties. But what happens if the baby seems happy though ? 2. BUT the baby seems happy Probability that overall opinion >= 7 = 9% (+ 6 points only !) + 1. Mother NOT satisfied by the sensory properties - 3% Mother sensory evaluation Probability that overall opinion >= 7
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  • 18. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! Jouffe Lionel Managing Director [email_address] Craignou Fabien Data Mining Department Manager [email_address]