Real Estate Data: Trends & Applications
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This presentation by ATTOM Data Solutions SVP Daren Blomquist was given at the Fay Servicing conference in Chicago on Thursday, Aug. 23, 2018.
![Real Estate Data: Trends & Applications
1Copyright © 2016 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/attomfayservicingpresentationaugust2018v3-180828232947/85/real-estate-data-trends-applications-1-320.jpg)
![What we’ll cover
• Macro housing trends
• Homeownership
• Home prices
• Affordability
• Loan origination
• Investor-focused housing trends
• Foreclosure
• Home Flipping
• Single Family Rental
• Neighborhood rankings
• Real-Life Applications of Real Estate Data
• Peppered in
2Copyright © 2016 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Real Estate Data: Trends & Applications
- 1. Real Estate Data: Trends & Applications 1Copyright © 2016 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ]
- 2. What we’ll cover • Macro housing trends • Homeownership • Home prices • Affordability • Loan origination • Investor-focused housing trends • Foreclosure • Home Flipping • Single Family Rental • Neighborhood rankings • Real-Life Applications of Real Estate Data • Peppered in 2Copyright © 2016 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ]
- 5. U.S. Home Prices at New All-Time High
- 6. Home Price Appreciation Decelerating Click for Interactive Heat Map
- 7. Clear Capital: Property Valuation 7Copyright © 2018 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ] Fueling Property Valuation and Analytics “ATTOM’s property data solutions are key to Clear Capital providing accurate and innovative property valuation products to the mortgage industry. Whether fueling our automated analytics like ClearAVM, or assisting our staff with quality review, ATTOM’s datasets allow us to set the bar as a property valuation leader." Kenon Chen Clear Capital EVP ProductData Solution Bulk tax assessor, recorder deed/mortgage and pre-foreclosure Use Case No.1 Integrates public record property data into various lender valuation products Provides tech-driven real estate valuation solutions to mortgage originators, servicers, GSEs and capital markets participants
- 8. U.S. Distressed Sales at 11-Year Low
- 9. Rising Share of TPS at Foreclosure Auction
- 10. Auction.comTransparency Trump Card Owns and operates two online real estate marketplaces: Auction.com and Ten-X Commercial. Has sold over $46 billion in residential and commercial properties since 2007 (more than 250,000 properties). Analyzes distressed market sales data for the company’s strategic planning In Q1 2017 launched HomeDisclosure reports – public record, neighborhood and hazard risk data packaged in consumer-friendly format -- for properties listed on Auction.com
- 11. Click for Interactive Heat Map 1 in 10 U.S. homes still underwater But 1 in 4 now equity rich
- 12. Click for Interactive Heat Map
- 13. Windfall Data: Identifying Affluent Owners Windfall models out the net worth of affluent consumers with more than $1 million in wealth. In addition to net worth, also provides additional household-level data (we call them triggers /signals) so that our customers can analyze their existing customer base and acquire net-new customers. Real estate data is incredibly valuable to us to ensure that we understand: (a) who owns the property (b) when it was purchased and (c) the details around the property (square footage, bedrooms, bathrooms, etc). Windfall officially launched in July 2016, and since then we have amassed 200+ customers in sectors such as nonprofits, financial services.
- 14. Top loan originators Non-banks gaining market share.
- 15. 15Copyright © 2018 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ] Designing the Digital Mortgage Digital mortgage origination for investment properties (fix-and-flip) Data Solution Bulk tax assessor, recorder deed, foreclosure Use Case No.1 Automation of online mortgage application process and borrower pre-qualification Matt Humphrey LendingHome CEO “Online lenders like us exist because banks and large lenders don’t play in this space, and they aren’t using technology to be efficient, nimble and fast. Now that investors have digital-native lenders catering to them, financing becomes an attractive alternative to cash. We predict this trend will continue because 2018 is already off to an incredible start for us.” Designing a Digital Mortgage
- 16. Powering an Online Mortgage Marketplace 16Copyright © 2018 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ] A leading online loan marketplace helping consumers connect with multiple lenders for various financial borrowing needs Data Solution Bulk tax assessor, recorder deed/mortgage, AVM Use Case No.1 Online mortgage application pre-fill and validation with property characteristics, ownership details, transaction history and automated valuation model Powering an Online Mortgage Marketplace
- 17. HELOCs Up 14 Percent in Q1 2018
- 18. Accurate Group: Tech-Driven Appraisals “While there was early speculation that tax law changes related to home equity loans might dampen demand, that is not playing out in the market,” said Paul Doman, president and CEO of Accurate Group, which provides appraisal and title solutions for home equity lenders. “The strong HELOC growth in Q1 is consistent with the results of our March 2018 Home Equity Lender Survey, in which lenders were nearly unanimous in their belief that tax savings is not the primary driver for HELOC demand. Demand for our home equity appraisal, title and closing solutions remains strong so far this year -- an indicator that lenders are continuing to grow that portion of their business.”
- 21. Loan portfolio/security matching use case Client provided securitized loan portfolio data ATTOM matched and appended with property address and additional loan details.
- 22. Loan portfolio/security matching use case Client provided name of assignee ATTOM identified 110 loan assignments and appended property, loan and foreclosure activity data
- 23. New post-recession low in foreclosure activity
- 24. Foreclosure finally becoming more efficient.
- 25. Foreclosure timelines an Achilles Heel
- 26. Fewer foreclosures tied to bubble-era loans
- 27. Localized upticks in foreclosure starts Click for Interactive Heat Map
- 28. Above-average default rates on 2014 FHA loans
- 29. Foresight: Risk Mitigation, ID Verification Creates risk mitigation and ID verification applications fed with public record property data via API Launched in 2011 primarily providing risk mitigation services to mortgage resellers Expanded to providing identification verification for other industries as diverse as online dating and law enforcement. “We have an app where if a police officer or sheriff pulls someone … we take an input of a phone number, and we’ll bounce it off a number of different data sources. Our most premium service will offer homeownership and address as part of that.” – Jim Waters, CEO
- 30. Home flipping rate matches six-year high.
- 32. Fix-and-Flip financing at 9-year high.
- 33. Click for Interactive Heat Map
- 34. LendingHome: Fix-and-Flip Lending 34Copyright © 2018 ATTOM Data Solutions. All rights reserved. [ CONFIDENTIAL ] Defining a New Industry Use Case No.2 Market analytics and marketing for the fix-and-flip lending space Digital mortgage origination for investment properties (fix-and-flip) “Wall Street has become more comfortable with the fix-and-flip space because they now have access to four years of performance data, and they’ve actively watched the development of this asset class. Large- scale, low-cost financing coupled with efficient tech-driven operations — like ours at LendingHome — means lower fees to borrowers with terms that work for them.” Matt Humphrey LendingHome CEO
- 36. Mom-and-pops with biggest piece of SFR pie
- 37. Rising middle of the Single Family Rental market
- 38. Click for Interactive Heat Map
- 39. Roofstock: Disrupting the SFR Industry Roofstock was formed when hedge-fund thinking collided with the often- inefficient single family real estate market in the wake of the Great Recession. The platform went from $40 million in transactions in 2016 to nearly $1 billion 2017 — a 25-x increase. One of the company’s projects last year was to complete a property database of all the SFR owners in the country and use that data to make the company relevant to its clients.
- 40. Click for Interactive Heat Map
- 41. Rental Returns by Neighborhood
- 42. Flipping Returns by Neighborhood
- 43. Audantic: Innovation Beats Intuition Applies machine learning and predictive analytics to public record real estate data to match real estate investors (typically buying at least 100 properties a year) with homeowners likely to sell at a discount. Began as startup in 2014 with two clients and through quality results and word of mouth spread to clients in more than 200 U.S. counties by mid-2016 Boasts a 95 percent customer retention rate, and 65 percent of customers have expanded business “A lot of investors have used intuition to determine how to do their marketing, and we’re able to apply predictive analytics to the data to get much higher results.” – Franklin Sarkett, CTO
- 44. Thank You! • For a copy of this slideshow email marketing@attomdata.com. • Go to www.attomdata.com for more information on data solutions and client case studies. • Go to www.attomdata.com/news for regular reports on housing market trends.
Editor's Notes
- U.S. single family homes and condos sold for a median price of $255,000 in the second quarter, up 6.3 percent from a year ago to a new all-time high but the slowest annual appreciation since Q2 2016. “Annual home price appreciation nationwide has now slowed for five consecutive quarters following a post-election spike to double-digit appreciation in the first quarter of 2017 The U.S. median home price of $255,000 in Q2 2018 was 6 percent above the pre-recession peak of $241,648 in Q3 2005. Median home prices in 79 of the 122 metro areas analyzed for median home prices in the report (65 percent) were above their pre-recession peaks in Q2 2018, led by Houston, Texas (79 percent above); Dallas-Fort Worth (78 percent above); Greeley, Colorado (76 percent above); Denver, Colorado (75 percent above); and San Antonio, Texas (68 percent above). Median home prices in Q2 2018 were still below pre-recession peaks in 43 of the 122 metros analyzed for median home prices (35 percent), led by Atlantic City, New Jersey (36 percent below); York, Pennsylvania (34 percent below); Salisbury, Maryland (21 percent below); Naples, Florida (19 percent below); and Trenton, New Jersey (18 percent below).
- Annual home price appreciation in Q2 2018 decelerated from the previous quarter in 80 of the 122 metros (66 percent) analyzed for median home prices, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Philadelphia. Counter to the national trend, annual home price appreciation accelerated from the previous quarter in 42 of the 122 metros analyzed (34 percent), including New York, Washington, D.C., Boston, San Francisco and Detroit.
- Distressed sales — sales of bank-owned homes, short sales, and sales to third-party investors at foreclosure auction — accounted for 11.9 percent of all single family home and condo sales in Q2 2018, down from 14.9 percent in the previous quarter and down from 13.5 percent in Q2 2017 to the lowest level since Q2 2007, an 11-year low. States with the highest share of distressed sales in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (23.9 percent), Delaware (22.5 percent), Rhode Island (18.6 percent), Connecticut (17.6 percent), and Illinois (17.3 percent). Among 148 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for distressed sales, those with the highest share in Q2 2018 were Atlantic City, New Jersey (42.1 percent); Trenton, New Jersey (26.0 percent); Youngstown, Ohio (25.4 percent); Syracuse, New York (24.8 percent); and Hagerstown, Maryland (22.1 percent). Among 52 metro areas with a population of 1 million or more, those with the highest share of distressed sales in Q2 2018 were Baltimore, Maryland (20.7 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (20.2 percent); New York-Newark-Jersey City (20.0 percent); Cleveland, Ohio (19.0 percent); and Providence, Rhode Island (18.7 percent).
- Distressed sales — sales of bank-owned homes, short sales, and sales to third-party investors at foreclosure auction — accounted for 11.9 percent of all single family home and condo sales in Q2 2018, down from 14.9 percent in the previous quarter and down from 13.5 percent in Q2 2017 to the lowest level since Q2 2007, an 11-year low. States with the highest share of distressed sales in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (23.9 percent), Delaware (22.5 percent), Rhode Island (18.6 percent), Connecticut (17.6 percent), and Illinois (17.3 percent). Among 148 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for distressed sales, those with the highest share in Q2 2018 were Atlantic City, New Jersey (42.1 percent); Trenton, New Jersey (26.0 percent); Youngstown, Ohio (25.4 percent); Syracuse, New York (24.8 percent); and Hagerstown, Maryland (22.1 percent). Among 52 metro areas with a population of 1 million or more, those with the highest share of distressed sales in Q2 2018 were Baltimore, Maryland (20.7 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (20.2 percent); New York-Newark-Jersey City (20.0 percent); Cleveland, Ohio (19.0 percent); and Providence, Rhode Island (18.7 percent).
- In the second quarter of 2018, more than 5.5 million U.S. properties were seriously underwater — where the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property was at least 25 percent higher than the property’s estimated market value — representing 10.1 percent of all U.S. properties with a mortgage. The report also shows that more than 13.6 million U.S. properties in Q2 2018 were equity rich — where the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property was 50 percent or less of the property’s estimated market value — representing 24.5 percent of all U.S. properties with a mortgage. “The share of seriously underwater properties has dropped well below 10 percent in bellwether housing markets such as California, Washington, Texas, Colorado and New York, but the underwater rate remains stubbornly high in markets where price appreciation has not been as strong during the housing recovery of the last six years,”
- Among 7,290 U.S. zip codes with at least 2,500 properties with loans, there were 65 zip codes where more than half of all properties with a mortgage were seriously underwater, including zip codes in Springfield, Missouri; Columbia, Missouri; Northern New Jersey; Detroit; St. Louis; and Memphis. The top five zip codes with the highest share of seriously underwater properties were 65809 in Springfield, Missouri (81.0 percent) followed by four zip codes in the greater Chicago area: 60134 in Geneva, Illinois (76.0 percent); 60124 in Elgin, Illinois (75.5 percent); 60175 in Saint Charles, Illinois (73.6 percent); and 60554 in Sugar Grove, Illinois (71.9 percent).
- 347,875 Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) were originated on residential properties in Q1 2018, up 18 percent from the previous quarter and up 14 percent from a year ago Among 165 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for loan originations, those with the biggest year-over-year increase in HELOC originations in Q1 2018 were Athens, Georgia (up 176 percent); Chattanooga, Tennessee (up 165 percent); Norwich, Connecticut (up 99 percent); Kingsport, Tennessee (up 92 percent); and Atlantic City, New Jersey (up 87 percent). Among 50 metro areas with a population of at least 1 million, those with the biggest year-over-year increase in HELOC originations in Q1 2018 were Hartford, Connecticut (up 80 percent); Nashville, Tennessee (up 74 percent); Las Vegas, Nevada (up 69 percent); Raleigh, North Carolina (up 56 percent); and Indianapolis, Indiana (up 51 percent). “While there was early speculation that tax law changes related to home equity loans might dampen demand, that is not playing out in the market,” said Paul Doman, president and CEO of Accurate Group, which provides appraisal and title solutions for home equity lenders. “The strong HELOC growth in Q1 is consistent with the results of our March 2018 Home Equity Lender Survey, in which lenders were nearly unanimous in their belief that tax savings is not the primary driver for HELOC demand. Demand for our home equity appraisal, title and closing solutions remains strong so far this year -- an indicator that lenders are continuing to grow that portion of their business.”
- Median down payment increased 2 percent, slower than price appreciation on homes purchased with FHA
- Median down payment increased 27 percent from a year ago – more than four times faster than the increase in median home prices Median down payments in San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles all over $100,000
- Down 15 percent from year ago Down 78 percent from peak of 1.7 million in first half 2010 Lowest post-recession total 26 metros with increasing activity including Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Cleveland, Phoenix and Indianapolis.
- Down 18 percent from year ago Longest timelines in Hawaii, Florida, New Jersey, Utah, Indiana Shortest timelines in Arkansas, Virginia, New Hampshire, Mississippi, Minnesota
- First-half foreclosure starts down 8 percent nationwide, down 82 percent from peak of 1.1 million in first-half 2009 40 percent of metros bucked the national trend including Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Las Vegas, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul
- 2014 vintage first post-recession vintage above overall average for FHA foreclosure rates 2014 vintage the peak FHA foreclosure rate in 79 of 174 metros analyzed, including Philadelphia, Chicago, Miami, Tampa, Riverside-San Bernardino, Los Angeles
- 48,457 U.S. single family homes and condos were flipped in the first quarter of 2018, down 4 percent from the previous quarter and down 3 percent from a year ago to a two-year low. The 48,457 homes flipped in the first quarter represented 6.9 percent of all home sales during the quarter, up from 5.9 percent in the previous quarter and unchanged from a year ago — matching the highest home flipping rate since Q1 2012.
- Homes flipped in Q1 2018 sold at an average gross profit of $69,500, up from an average gross flipping profit of $68,250 in the previous quarter and up from $66,287 in Q1 2017 to the highest average gross flipping profit since ATTOM began tracking in Q1 2000. The average gross flipping profit of $69,500 in Q1 2018 translated into an average 47.8 percent return on investment compared to the original acquisition price, down from a 48.9 percent average gross flipping ROI in Q4 2017 and down from an average gross flipping ROI of 50.3 percent in Q1 2017 to the lowest level since Q2 2015 — a nearly three-year low.
- Homes flipped in Q1 2018 that were originally purchased with financing by the home flipper represented 35.7 percent of all homes flipped during the quarter, up from 35.3 percent in the previous quarter and up from 33.5 percent a year ago to the highest level since Q3 2008 — a nine and a half year high. Among the 136 metro areas analyzed in the report, those with the highest share of home flips purchased with financing were Colorado Springs, Colorado (63.9 percent); Madison, Wisconsin (63.0 percent); Boston, Massachusetts (56.3 percent); Greeley, Colorado (56.3 percent); and Denver, Colorado (56.1 percent).
- Among 136 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 50 home flips in Q1 2018, those with the highest home flipping rate were Memphis, Tennessee (15.1 percent); Albany, Oregon (11.7 percent); East Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania (11.4 percent); York, Pennsylvania (10.4 percent); and Merced, California (10.3 percent). Along with Memphis, other metro areas with a population of at least 1 million and a home flipping rate above 9.0 percent were Phoenix (10.3 percent); Virginia Beach (9.9 percent); Las Vegas (9.8 percent); Baltimore (9.7 percent); and Rochester, New York (9.5 percent).
- Counties with the highest potential annual gross rental yields for 2018 were Baltimore City, Maryland (28.6 percent); Bibb County, Georgia in the Macon metro area (21.8 percent); Montgomery County, Alabama, in the Montgomery metro area (21.7 percent); Wayne County, Michigan in the Detroit metro area (21.7 percent); and Clayton County, Georgia in the Atlanta metro area (20.3 percent). Along with Wayne County, Michigan, the highest potential annual gross rental yields among counties with a population of at least 1 million were Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio (11.6 percent); Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (10.0 percent); Cook County (Chicago), Illinois (9.5 percent); and Harris County (Houston), Texas (9.5 percent).
- The top five U.S. neighborhood housing markets based on the index were the Pine Ridge neighborhood in the Naples, Florida, metro ($632,871 median price); Westlake neighborhood in the Mobile, Alabama, metro ($196,179); Union neighborhood in the San Jose, California, metro ($795,000); Westmoreland neighborhood in the Charlotte, North Carolina metro ($326,000); and Hunters Hill neighborhood in the Denver, Colorado, metro ($271,000) There were 136 neighborhoods with an A rating and with median home prices of $100,000 or less, led by the Devonshire neighborhood in the Mobile, Alabama, metro ($78,038 median price); the Park Central neighborhood in the Orlando Florida, metro ($91,750); the East English Village neighborhood in the Detroit, Michigan, metro area ($66,750); the Cypress Shores neighborhood in the Mobile, Alabama, metro ($85,000); and the Hathaway Manor neighborhood in the St. Louis, Missouri, metro ($69,190).
- Among 2,188 neighborhoods with an A rating, there were 494 with a potential annual gross rental yield of at least 10 percent, led by the Westover neighborhood in Fayetteville, North Carolina (41.7 potential gross annual rental yield); the Terminal Park neighborhood in Sarasota, Florida (41.5 percent); the Southwest York neighborhood in York, Pennsylvania (35.8 percent); the Griffin Park neighborhood in Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida (35.8 percent); and the Portland neighborhood in Louisville, Kentucky (33.6 percent).